<p>作者：戈登·戈特塞根</p>
<p>几家资产管理公司已申请交易所交易基金，以直接参与与选举相关的预测市场。</p>
<p>这些提议的 ETF 都与美国选举相关的预测市场有关。</p>
<p>如果你在像 Webull（BULL）或 Robinhood Markets（HOOD）这样的金融科技平台上投资，你可能已经看到了关于大学篮球比赛或冬季奥运会的预测市场。现在，可能不久每个经纪账户都将能够在这些市场上进行投注。</p>
<p>本周，包括 Bitwise、Roundhill Investments 和 GraniteShares 在内的几家资产管理公司向证券交易委员会提交了文件，开始提供直接参与预测市场的交易所交易基金。</p>
<p>到目前为止，所有的 ETF 申请都与美国选举相关，产品包括 PredictionShares 民主党总统 2028 年选举胜利 ETF、Roundhill 共和党总统 ETF 和 GraniteShares 民主党参议院 ETF。虽然这些 ETF 的具体细节各不相同，但这些基金通常投资于与选举结果相关的特定预测市场。ETF 价格与预测市场的赔率同步波动，如果预测结果发生，价格会大幅上涨；如果未发生，“该基金将失去几乎所有的价值，” 根据申请文件所述。</p>
<p>除了投资于可能归零的 ETF 所固有的风险外，这些基金可能还会带来其他意想不到的后果。即，它们可能为更多的机构投资者，如对冲基金和高频交易者，积极参与这些预测市场打开了大门。这可能会改变我们所知的预测市场领域。</p>
<p>“如果我们看看过去几年 ETF 行业发生的事情，一旦这个类别开放，我们就会看到大量产品涌现，” CFRA Research 的 ETF 研究与分析负责人 Aniket Ullal 告诉 MarketWatch。“如果仅仅止步于此，我会感到非常惊讶。”</p>
<p>为什么现在会发生这种情况</p>
<p>虽然预测市场以某种形式存在了几十年，但当前的事件合约版本——如 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 提供的合约——相对较新。就在不久前，Kalshi 曾起诉商品期货交易委员会，以便提供其选举合约，或者 FBI 突袭了 Polymarket 创始人 Shayne Coplan 的家。</p>
<p>但从那时起，预测市场迅速发展。根据 Dune 的数据，Kalshi 和 Polymarket 每周的交易量各自约为 20 亿美元。同时，当前的 CFTC 管理层对预测市场公司变得更加友好。</p>
<p>另请阅读：Polymarket 在唐纳德·特朗普 Jr.加入担任顾问后几天获准返回美国</p>
<p>“你现在看到 ETF 申请的原因之一是监管环境更强，流动性更强，现在它们可以在更传统的金融框架中开始发挥作用，而之前无法做到，” Bitwise 的首席投资官 Matthew Hougan 告诉 MarketWatch。Hougan 是申请提供预测市场 ETF 的公司之一。</p>
<p>更强的流动性和更清晰的监管使得预测市场对机构投资者更具吸引力——这包括 ETF 提供者以及将购买和出售这些产品的机构。可以类比的是，现货比特币 ETF 的出现与机构参与加密货币市场的时机相吻合。</p>
<p>“在监管更清晰、流动性更强之前，机构实际上无法进入加密货币市场。一旦这两者对齐，出现了比特币 ETF 和 CME 比特币期货，并且你有信心加密货币不会被监管到消失，你就会看到数百亿美元流入这些市场。” Hougan 说。“我认为这里也发生了同样的事情。”</p>
<p>机构资金流入比特币 ETF 和其他衍生产品改变了加密市场。</p>
<p>“如果你回过头来绘制比特币的价格，一旦明确现货比特币 ETF 将获得批准，基础比特币资产类别就出现了明显的上涨，” Ullal 说。</p>
<p>在此之前，加密货币的监管框架并不明确，机构投资者也不容易接触。但随着这一变化，越来越多的机构感到舒适于交易加密货币。</p>
<p>所以问题是，ETF 是否意味着机构将开始涌入预测市场？</p>
<p>预测市场可能成为机构交易者的游乐场</p>
<p>投资者理解预测市场在其投资组合中所起的作用是很重要的。它们是用于投资还是交易？</p>
<p>预测市场的二元结果以及投资可能归零的机会意味着这些工具更适合交易。如果是这样，成功参与预测市场的关键在于找到优势。</p>
<p>“我们正处于预测市场的早期阶段，因此可能存在比未来更多的阿尔法，” Hougan 说，指的是交易者通过超越市场来产生回报的能力。</p>
<p>Hougan 提到一个例子，一位 TikTok 内容创作者在超级碗前飞往加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉的利维斯体育场，倾听国歌的排练。他随后利用预测市场来下注国歌在活动中将花费多长时间。根据他的视频，他的预测是正确的，并且他赚了钱。</p>
<p>虽然这位 TikTok 创作者因其创造力而获得了回报，但 Hougan 想象了一个场景，在下一个超级碗上有 200 个人这样做，而投注市场的赔率已经反映了这种 “内部” 知识。</p>
<p>一旦更多机构交易者开始参与，预测市场可能会迎来这样的未来。最终，竞争将是亿万富翁对冲基金和高频交易公司的量化团队与那些富有创意的 TikTok 用户之间，争夺在特定预测市场中获得优势。</p>
<p>“随着机构参与的增加，寻找优势变得越来越困难，” Hougan 对 MarketWatch 表示。“这在所有市场中都是如此。即使是拥有最新技术和分析团队的活跃投资组合经理，想要超越标准普尔 500 指数（S&amp;P 500 SPX）也非常困难。”</p>
<p>在预测市场中，零售投资者将更难获得优势，这在一个你的全部投资可能归零的市场中是危险的。Hougan 表示，随着这些市场变得更加流动，预计它们将更准确地预测结果。</p>
<p>这可能对预测市场在预测未来事件方面的实用性是个好消息——最近，美联储发布了一份报告，研究了 Kalshi 在预测经济数据方面的准确性——但对于那些现在必须与量化团队竞争的 20 多岁年轻人来说，这可能意味着麻烦。</p>
<p>-戈登·戈特塞根</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>02-20-26 1315ET</p>

NANC

DEMZ

<p>几家资产管理公司已申请与美国选举预测市场相关的 ETF，包括 Bitwise 和 Roundhill Investments。这些 ETF，例如 PredictionShares Democratic President Wins 2028 Election ETF，将根据选举结果的变化而波动。虽然它们提供了高回报的潜力，但也伴随着重大风险，包括可能失去全部价值。目前的监管环境和流动性增加使得预测市场对机构投资者更具吸引力，可能将其转变为对冲基金和高频交易者的交易乐园</p>

<p>By Gordon Gottsegen</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：戈登·戈特塞根</p>
</div><p>Several asset managers have filed for exchange-traded funds that offer direct exposure to election-related prediction markets</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几家资产管理公司已申请交易所交易基金，以直接参与与选举相关的预测市场。</p>
</div><p>The proposed ETFs are all tied to prediction markets related to U.S. elections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些提议的 ETF 都与美国选举相关的预测市场有关。</p>
</div><p>If you invest with fintech platforms like Webull (BULL) or Robinhood Markets (HOOD), you may already be seeing prediction markets for things like college basketball games or the Winter Olympics. Now it may not be long before every brokerage account has the ability to bet on these markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在像 Webull（BULL）或 Robinhood Markets（HOOD）这样的金融科技平台上投资，你可能已经看到了关于大学篮球比赛或冬季奥运会的预测市场。现在，可能不久每个经纪账户都将能够在这些市场上进行投注。</p>
</div><p>This week, a handful of asset managers - including Bitwise, Roundhill Investments and GraniteShares - filed paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission to begin offering exchange-traded funds that have direct exposure to prediction markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周，包括 Bitwise、Roundhill Investments 和 GraniteShares 在内的几家资产管理公司向证券交易委员会提交了文件，开始提供直接参与预测市场的交易所交易基金。</p>
</div><p>So far, all the ETF filings are tied to U.S. elections, with products like the PredictionShares Democratic President Wins 2028 Election ETF, the Roundhill Republican President ETF and the GraniteShares Democratic Senate ETF. While the individual details of these ETFs differ, the funds generally invest in a specific prediction market tied to an election outcome. ETF prices move in tandem with the prediction-market odds and increase substantially if the predicted outcome happens - and if it doesn't happen, &#34;the fund will lose substantially all of its value,&#34; according to the filing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，所有的 ETF 申请都与美国选举相关，产品包括 PredictionShares 民主党总统 2028 年选举胜利 ETF、Roundhill 共和党总统 ETF 和 GraniteShares 民主党参议院 ETF。虽然这些 ETF 的具体细节各不相同，但这些基金通常投资于与选举结果相关的特定预测市场。ETF 价格与预测市场的赔率同步波动，如果预测结果发生，价格会大幅上涨；如果未发生，“该基金将失去几乎所有的价值，” 根据申请文件所述。</p>
</div><p>Beyond the inherent risk of investing in an ETF that could go to zero, these funds may have other unforeseen consequences. Namely, they may open the door for more institutional investors, like hedge funds and high-frequency traders, to start trading these prediction markets more actively. That could change the prediction-market space as we know it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了投资于可能归零的 ETF 所固有的风险外，这些基金可能还会带来其他意想不到的后果。即，它们可能为更多的机构投资者，如对冲基金和高频交易者，积极参与这些预测市场打开了大门。这可能会改变我们所知的预测市场领域。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If we look at what's happened to the ETF industry in the last few years, once the category opens up, we just have this deluge of products,&#34; Aniket Ullal, the head of ETF research and analytics at CFRA Research, told MarketWatch. &#34;I would be very surprised if it stops with this.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果我们看看过去几年 ETF 行业发生的事情，一旦这个类别开放，我们就会看到大量产品涌现，” CFRA Research 的 ETF 研究与分析负责人 Aniket Ullal 告诉 MarketWatch。“如果仅仅止步于此，我会感到非常惊讶。”</p>
</div><p>Why this is happening now</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为什么现在会发生这种情况</p>
</div><p>While prediction markets in one form or another have been around for a few decades, the current iteration of event contracts - like those offered by Kalshi and Polymarket - is relatively new. It wasn't that long ago that Kalshi sued the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in order to offer its election contracts, or that the FBI raided the home of Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然预测市场以某种形式存在了几十年，但当前的事件合约版本——如 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 提供的合约——相对较新。就在不久前，Kalshi 曾起诉商品期货交易委员会，以便提供其选举合约，或者 FBI 突袭了 Polymarket 创始人 Shayne Coplan 的家。</p>
</div><p>But since then, prediction markets have taken off. Kalshi and Polymarket each see around $2 billion in weekly volume, according to data on Dune. And at the same time, the current CFTC administration has become a lot friendlier to prediction-market companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但从那时起，预测市场迅速发展。根据 Dune 的数据，Kalshi 和 Polymarket 每周的交易量各自约为 20 亿美元。同时，当前的 CFTC 管理层对预测市场公司变得更加友好。</p>
</div><p>Also read: Polymarket authorized for U.S. return just days after Donald Trump Jr. joins as adviser</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另请阅读：Polymarket 在唐纳德·特朗普 Jr.加入担任顾问后几天获准返回美国</p>
</div><p>&#34;One of the reasons you're seeing ETF filings now and you didn't see them before is the regulatory setting is stronger, the liquidity is stronger and now they can start to matter in more traditional financial frameworks in a way that they couldn't beforehand,&#34; Matthew Hougan told MarketWatch. Hougan is the chief investment officer at Bitwise, one of the companies that have filed to offer prediction-market ETFs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“你现在看到 ETF 申请的原因之一是监管环境更强，流动性更强，现在它们可以在更传统的金融框架中开始发挥作用，而之前无法做到，” Bitwise 的首席投资官 Matthew Hougan 告诉 MarketWatch。Hougan 是申请提供预测市场 ETF 的公司之一。</p>
</div><p>More liquidity and clearer regulation have helped make prediction markets more appealing to institutions - that includes the ETF providers, as well as the institutions that will be buying and selling those products. To draw a parallel, consider how the onset of spot bitcoin ETFs coincided with institutional participation in the cryptocurrency market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更强的流动性和更清晰的监管使得预测市场对机构投资者更具吸引力——这包括 ETF 提供者以及将购买和出售这些产品的机构。可以类比的是，现货比特币 ETF 的出现与机构参与加密货币市场的时机相吻合。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Institutions couldn't really come into crypto until there was more regulatory clarity and there was more liquidity. Once those two things aligned and you got bitcoin ETFs and CME futures on bitcoin, and then you had confidence that crypto wasn't going to be regulated out of existence, you saw tens of billions of dollars flow into those markets.&#34; Hougan said. &#34;I think the same thing is going on here.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在监管更清晰、流动性更强之前，机构实际上无法进入加密货币市场。一旦这两者对齐，出现了比特币 ETF 和 CME 比特币期货，并且你有信心加密货币不会被监管到消失，你就会看到数百亿美元流入这些市场。” Hougan 说。“我认为这里也发生了同样的事情。”</p>
</div><p>That flow of institutional money into bitcoin ETFs and other derivative products changed the crypto market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>机构资金流入比特币 ETF 和其他衍生产品改变了加密市场。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If you go back and plot the price of bitcoin, once it became clear that spot bitcoin ETFs would get approved, there was a clear rally in the underlying bitcoin asset class,&#34; Ullal said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果你回过头来绘制比特币的价格，一旦明确现货比特币 ETF 将获得批准，基础比特币资产类别就出现了明显的上涨，” Ullal 说。</p>
</div><p>Prior to that, the regulatory framework for crypto wasn't clear and it wasn't easily accessible by institutional investors, he said. But as that changed, more institutions felt comfortable trading crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在此之前，加密货币的监管框架并不明确，机构投资者也不容易接触。但随着这一变化，越来越多的机构感到舒适于交易加密货币。</p>
</div><p>So the question is, are ETFs a sign that institutions will start pouring into prediction markets?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以问题是，ETF 是否意味着机构将开始涌入预测市场？</p>
</div><p>Prediction markets could become a playground for institutional traders</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预测市场可能成为机构交易者的游乐场</p>
</div><p>It's important for investors to understand the purpose that prediction markets serve in their portfolio. Are they for investing or trading?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者理解预测市场在其投资组合中所起的作用是很重要的。它们是用于投资还是交易？</p>
</div><p>The binary outcome of prediction markets and the chance that your investment could go to zero imply that these vehicles are more for trading. If that's the case, succeeding in prediction markets is all about finding an edge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预测市场的二元结果以及投资可能归零的机会意味着这些工具更适合交易。如果是这样，成功参与预测市场的关键在于找到优势。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We're in the early days of prediction market, so there's probably more alpha than there will be [in the future],&#34; Hougan said, referring to a trader's ability to generate returns by beating the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们正处于预测市场的早期阶段，因此可能存在比未来更多的阿尔法，” Hougan 说，指的是交易者通过超越市场来产生回报的能力。</p>
</div><p>Hougan brought up the example of a TikTok content creator who flew to Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., before the Super Bowl in order to listen in on rehearsals for the national anthem. He then used prediction markets to bet on how long the anthem would take at the event. According to his video, his prediction was correct and he made money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hougan 提到一个例子，一位 TikTok 内容创作者在超级碗前飞往加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉的利维斯体育场，倾听国歌的排练。他随后利用预测市场来下注国歌在活动中将花费多长时间。根据他的视频，他的预测是正确的，并且他赚了钱。</p>
</div><p>While the TikToker was rewarded for his creativity, Hougan imagined a scenario where 200 people do that at the next Super Bowl, and the odds in the betting market already reflect that &#34;insider&#34; knowledge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这位 TikTok 创作者因其创造力而获得了回报，但 Hougan 想象了一个场景，在下一个超级碗上有 200 个人这样做，而投注市场的赔率已经反映了这种 “内部” 知识。</p>
</div><p>That's the sort of future that could be in store for prediction markets once more institutional traders start participating. Eventually, it will be teams of quants at billion-dollar hedge funds and high-frequency trading firms that are competing with those creative TikTokers over who can gain an edge in specific prediction markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一旦更多机构交易者开始参与，预测市场可能会迎来这样的未来。最终，竞争将是亿万富翁对冲基金和高频交易公司的量化团队与那些富有创意的 TikTok 用户之间，争夺在特定预测市场中获得优势。</p>
</div><p>&#34;As they get more institutional, edge is harder and harder to find,&#34; Hougan told MarketWatch. &#34;That's true in all markets. Look how hard it is for even active portfolio managers who have access to the latest technology and teams of analysts to outperform the S&amp;P 500 SPX.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“随着机构参与的增加，寻找优势变得越来越困难，” Hougan 对 MarketWatch 表示。“这在所有市场中都是如此。即使是拥有最新技术和分析团队的活跃投资组合经理，想要超越标准普尔 500 指数（S&amp;P 500 SPX）也非常困难。”</p>
</div><p>With prediction markets, it will be the retail investors who have a harder time coming out ahead, which can be dangerous in a market where your entire investment can go to zero. Hougan said that as these markets get more liquid, they would be expected to more accurately predict outcomes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在预测市场中，零售投资者将更难获得优势，这在一个你的全部投资可能归零的市场中是危险的。Hougan 表示，随着这些市场变得更加流动，预计它们将更准确地预测结果。</p>
</div><p>That may be good news for the utility of prediction markets for forecasting future events - recently, the Federal Reserve released a report studying the accuracy of Kalshi in predicting economic data - but for the 20-somethings who now have to compete with teams of quants, it could spell trouble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这可能对预测市场在预测未来事件方面的实用性是个好消息——最近，美联储发布了一份报告，研究了 Kalshi 在预测经济数据方面的准确性——但对于那些现在必须与量化团队竞争的 20 多岁年轻人来说，这可能意味着麻烦。</p>
</div><p>-Gordon Gottsegen</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-戈登·戈特塞根</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>02-20-26 1315ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>02-20-26 1315ET</p>
</div>

预测市场 ETF 可能为各种华尔街的投机行为打开大门