<p>TradingKey - 当人工智能泡沫的 “第一滴雨” 落下时，没有人预料到这会引发一场席卷全球金融市场的风暴。</p>
<p>Citrini Research 的一份广泛流传的报告描绘了一幅由人工智能驱动的 “失业大萧条” 的图景，令人不安的全球资本市场——投资者之前在人工智能技术上下注的巨大赌注现在显现出动摇的迹象。</p>
<p>作为近期一系列 “悲观” 分析中的最新一篇，它构建了一个 2028 年的假设场景：人工智能技术的快速迭代将大幅取代软件和交付领域的角色，触发一波行业裁员，最终将失业率推高至 10.2%。</p>
<p>这种假设的人工智能引发的衰退，一旦与抵押贷款和私募股权贷款的违约潮结合，将直接冲击全球金融体系，甚至可能引发美国股市崩盘和信贷市场冻结，拖累整体经济。显然，这份报告准确触动了市场参与者对人工智能潜在负面影响的焦虑。</p>
<p>事实上，投资者的担忧已经在资本市场的动向中有所反映，他们继续抛售软件公司和容易被自动化取代的行业的股票。今年以来，美国软件股票指数累计下跌了 24%。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，软件行业的持续调整可能会直接影响依赖这些资产的私募信贷产品；相关风险不容忽视。</p>
<p>商业发展公司（BDCs）虽然在公共市场上交易，但大多由大型私募股权公司管理，运作方式类似于私募股权，核心关注当前收入和资本增值。软件行业的持续调整可能会直接影响依赖这些资产的私募信贷产品；相关风险不容忽视。</p>
<p>巴克莱（BCS）报告的数据也证实了这一风险，显示 BDCs 行业的风险高度集中在软件领域，约占 20%，使其资产质量对近期软件股价和相关信贷估值的下跌高度脆弱。</p>
<h2>私募信贷危机迫在眉睫</h2>
<p>万亿美元的全球私募信贷市场正面临其最严峻的挑战——近期连续报告的企业破产、欺诈指控和基金赎回冻结，剥去了市场的 “华丽外衣”。私募信贷在 2008 年金融危机后，在低利率和宽松流动性下疯狂扩张，现在暴露出其脆弱的基础。</p>
<p>恐慌目前正在迅速蔓延至市场。</p>
<p>Fourier Asset Management 的首席投资官 Orlando Gemes 发出严厉警告：“我们今天在私募信贷中看到的红旗与 2007 年金融危机前的情况惊人相似。”</p>
<p>他特别提到，借款人保护的持续削弱，加上复杂的流动性条款，“掩盖了投资者对 ‘随时可流动资产’ 的认知与实际 ‘真正可以退出的资产’ 之间的错位。”</p>
<p>作为私募信贷市场的 “晴雨表”，商业发展公司的困境持续发酵。德意志银行（DB）数据显示，这些上市机构对私募信贷和软件行业的高配置，使其股票价格对净资产价值（NAV）的折扣攀升至自 COVID-19 疫情以来未见的高峰。</p>
<p>与此同时，像 KKR（KKR）、贝莱德（BLK）等顶级资产管理公司旗下的 BDCs，正遭遇股票价格暴跌、高坏账和赎回潮的三重挤压。</p>
<p>上周，Blue Owl Capital（OWL）宣布对其 OBDC II 基金实施永久性赎回限制，并计划分阶段清算资产，以每季度向投资者返还现金——这意味着投资者完全失去了自主赎回的选项，之前允许每季度提取 5% 基金现金的规则被直接取消。</p>
<p>早在 2025 年 9 月，汽车零部件制造商 First Brands 和次级贷款机构 Tricolor Holdings 的破产点燃了市场对高杠杆借款人风险的担忧。更重要的是，这两家公司得到了包括瑞银（UBS）O'Connor 和杰富瑞（JEF）金融集团在内的几家知名银行的支持，这些银行向它们提供了数亿美元的贷款，导致市场担心风险传导到金融系统。</p>
<h2>私募信贷对金融系统的连锁反应</h2>
<p>摩根大通（JPM）首席执行官 Jamie Dimon 曾对此发出警告：过去十年企业信贷环境过于宽松，“当你看到一只蟑螂时，可能还有许多在阴影中。” 这一警告很快在资本市场上得到了呼应，投资者开始疯狂抛售与高风险借款人相关的资产。</p>
<p>穆迪的数据表明，美国大型银行已向私募信贷机构提供了约 3000 亿美元的贷款，这些资金助长了私募信贷行业的扩张。在特朗普政府期间，私募债务产品进一步渗透到数百万普通美国投资者的经纪和退休账户中，这意味着风险传导的范围可能远超预期。</p>
<p>更令人担忧的是非银行金融中介（NBFIs）的快速扩张。纽约联邦储备银行的最新研究显示，NBFIs 在全球金融资产中的份额已超过 50%，在美国高达 60%，其对金融系统的影响持续增强。</p>
<p>这个 “多层嵌套” 的风险传递链需要特别关注。尽管自金融危机以来，银行已减少对实体经济的直接贷款，但它们通过向非银行金融机构（NBFIs）发放高级贷款，间接参与后续的信贷分配，这些非银行金融机构再将资金作为次级信贷贷给最终借款人。</p>
<p>一旦中间环节出现问题，风险很可能沿着链条向后传递至银行系统。美联储副主席鲍曼指出，金融危机前，银行发放了 60% 的抵押贷款，而如今这一比例几乎减半，许多借款人转向非银行贷款机构，使金融系统的结构更加复杂。</p>
<h2>信用风险会引发美国股票的隐患吗？</h2>
<p>从人工智能行业的破坏性影响到私人信贷市场危机的出现，一系列连锁反应可能使美国股票甚至美国经济面临黑天鹅风险。</p>
<p>摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在周一的年度投资者日上对美国经济发出了警告——当前高资产价格和银行业激烈竞争的市场环境让他想起了 2008 年金融危机前的情况。</p>
<p>尽管许多经济学家对特朗普政府的减税和放松监管政策持乐观态度，认为这些政策将推动美国经济在今年增长，但戴蒙依然异常谨慎。他承认，他更倾向于在市场预期高涨时预见潜在风险。</p>
<p>‘我个人认为人们有些盲目乐观——认为当前的高资产价格和巨大的交易量是常态，未来不会出现任何问题，’ 戴蒙在会议上表示。‘周期总会转变……我不知道触发因素是什么，但我对此非常担忧。高资产价格并没有让我感到安全；相反，我觉得风险在不断积累。’</p>
<p>在他看来，经济周期的更替是一个不可避免的趋势。一旦周期转变，一波借款人违约将随之而来，影响的不仅是贷款人，往往还会波及到人们最意想不到的行业。</p>
<p>‘信用周期中总会出现一些意想不到的情况，通常最令人惊讶的行业最终受到的打击最重，’ 戴蒙举例说道。‘在 2008 年和 2009 年，没有人预料到公用事业和电信公司会受到影响，但这次，人工智能的崛起可能会将软件行业置于前线。’</p>
<p>关于私人信贷市场的风险，戴蒙对他的副手们的判断表示完全赞同。摩根大通商业与投资银行联席主管特洛伊·罗尔巴赫在活动中指出，目前的信贷问题不会仅限于私人信贷领域，而可能 ‘扩散到更广泛的市场。’</p>
<p>他提到：‘目前，风险似乎只在局部出现，但这种情况随时可能改变，我们对此做好了准备。’</p>
<p>戴蒙最后重申，当前的市场环境与 2008 年金融危机前的三年惊人相似：‘每个人都赚了很多钱，杠杆率很高，大家都认为一切皆有可能，但风险往往隐藏在这种盲目的乐观中。’</p>
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<p>Citrini Research 的一份报告警告称，到 2028 年可能会出现由人工智能引发的经济衰退，预计将导致大规模失业，并对全球金融市场产生重大影响。美国软件股指数今年已下跌 24%，反映了投资者的担忧。私人信贷市场面临严重挑战，企业破产和流动性问题不断增加，令人想起 2007 年的金融危机。商业发展公司（BDCs）尤其脆弱，股价暴跌，并且开始实施赎回限制。私人信贷与更广泛金融体系的相互关联性引发了潜在危机的担忧</p>

<p>TradingKey - When the 'first raindrops' of the AI bubble fell, no one expected it to trigger a storm that would sweep through global financial markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 当人工智能泡沫的 “第一滴雨” 落下时，没有人预料到这会引发一场席卷全球金融市场的风暴。</p>
</div><p>A widely circulated report from Citrini Research paints a picture of an AI-driven 'mass unemployment dystopia,' unsettling global capital markets—the massive bets investors previously placed on AI technology are now showing signs of wavering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Citrini Research 的一份广泛流传的报告描绘了一幅由人工智能驱动的 “失业大萧条” 的图景，令人不安的全球资本市场——投资者之前在人工智能技术上下注的巨大赌注现在显现出动摇的迹象。</p>
</div><p>As the latest in a series of recent 'pessimistic' analyses exploring the disruptive effects of AI, it constructs a hypothetical scenario for 2028: the rapid iteration of AI technology will largely replace roles in software and delivery, triggering a wave of industry layoffs and eventually pushing the unemployment rate up to 10.2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为近期一系列 “悲观” 分析中的最新一篇，它构建了一个 2028 年的假设场景：人工智能技术的快速迭代将大幅取代软件和交付领域的角色，触发一波行业裁员，最终将失业率推高至 10.2%。</p>
</div><p>This hypothetical AI-induced recession, once combined with a wave of defaults in mortgages and private equity loans, would directly hit the global financial system and could even trigger a crash in U.S. stocks and a freeze in credit markets, dragging down the overall economy. Clearly, this report has precisely struck a nerve regarding market participants' anxiety over the potential negative impacts of AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种假设的人工智能引发的衰退，一旦与抵押贷款和私募股权贷款的违约潮结合，将直接冲击全球金融体系，甚至可能引发美国股市崩盘和信贷市场冻结，拖累整体经济。显然，这份报告准确触动了市场参与者对人工智能潜在负面影响的焦虑。</p>
</div><p>In fact, investor concerns are already reflected in capital market movements, as they continue to sell off stocks in software companies and industries easily replaceable by automation. Year-to-date, the U.S. software stock index has fallen by a cumulative 24%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，投资者的担忧已经在资本市场的动向中有所反映，他们继续抛售软件公司和容易被自动化取代的行业的股票。今年以来，美国软件股票指数累计下跌了 24%。</p>
</div><p>It is worth noting that the ongoing correction in the software industry could directly impact private credit products that rely on such assets; the associated risks cannot be ignored.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，软件行业的持续调整可能会直接影响依赖这些资产的私募信贷产品；相关风险不容忽视。</p>
</div><p>Business Development Companies (BDCs), while traded on public markets, are mostly managed by large private equity firms and operate similarly to private equity, with a core focus on current income and capital appreciation. The ongoing correction in the software industry could directly impact private credit products that rely on such assets; the associated risks cannot be ignored.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商业发展公司（BDCs）虽然在公共市场上交易，但大多由大型私募股权公司管理，运作方式类似于私募股权，核心关注当前收入和资本增值。软件行业的持续调整可能会直接影响依赖这些资产的私募信贷产品；相关风险不容忽视。</p>
</div><p>Barclays ( BCS) report data also corroborates this risk, showing that BDC industry exposure is highly concentrated in the software sector, at approximately 20%, making their asset quality highly vulnerable to recent declines in software stock prices and related credit valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴克莱（BCS）报告的数据也证实了这一风险，显示 BDCs 行业的风险高度集中在软件领域，约占 20%，使其资产质量对近期软件股价和相关信贷估值的下跌高度脆弱。</p>
</div><h2>Private Credit Crisis Looming</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>私募信贷危机迫在眉睫</h2>
</div><p>The trillion-dollar global private credit market is facing its most severe challenge yet—recent consecutive reports of corporate bankruptcies, fraud allegations, and fund redemption freezes have stripped away the market's 'glamorous facade.' Private credit, which expanded frantically under low interest rates and loose liquidity following the 2008 financial crisis, is now exposing its fragile foundations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>万亿美元的全球私募信贷市场正面临其最严峻的挑战——近期连续报告的企业破产、欺诈指控和基金赎回冻结，剥去了市场的 “华丽外衣”。私募信贷在 2008 年金融危机后，在低利率和宽松流动性下疯狂扩张，现在暴露出其脆弱的基础。</p>
</div><p>Panic is currently spreading rapidly through the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>恐慌目前正在迅速蔓延至市场。</p>
</div><p>Orlando Gemes, Chief Investment Officer at Fourier Asset Management, issued a stern warning: 'The red flags we are seeing in private credit today are strikingly similar to the situation leading up to the 2007 financial crisis.'</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Fourier Asset Management 的首席投资官 Orlando Gemes 发出严厉警告：“我们今天在私募信贷中看到的红旗与 2007 年金融危机前的情况惊人相似。”</p>
</div><p>He specifically mentioned that the continuous weakening of lender protections, combined with complex liquidity terms, 'masks the mismatch between investors' perception of &#34;readily liquid assets&#34; and the actual &#34;assets that can truly be exited.&#34;'</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他特别提到，借款人保护的持续削弱，加上复杂的流动性条款，“掩盖了投资者对 ‘随时可流动资产’ 的认知与实际 ‘真正可以退出的资产’ 之间的错位。”</p>
</div><p>As a 'barometer' for the private credit market, the predicament of Business Development Companies (BDCs) continues to fester. Deutsche Bank ( DB) data shows that these listed institutions, which have high allocations to private credit and the software industry, are seeing their stock price discounts to Net Asset Value (NAV) climb to peaks not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为私募信贷市场的 “晴雨表”，商业发展公司的困境持续发酵。德意志银行（DB）数据显示，这些上市机构对私募信贷和软件行业的高配置，使其股票价格对净资产价值（NAV）的折扣攀升至自 COVID-19 疫情以来未见的高峰。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, BDCs under top asset managers like KKR ( KKR ), BlackRock ( BLK) and others that target individual investors are caught in a triple squeeze of plunging stock prices, high bad debts, and redemption runs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，像 KKR（KKR）、贝莱德（BLK）等顶级资产管理公司旗下的 BDCs，正遭遇股票价格暴跌、高坏账和赎回潮的三重挤压。</p>
</div><p>Last week, Blue Owl Capital ( OWL) announced permanent redemption restrictions on its OBDC II fund, along with plans to liquidate assets in stages to return cash to investors quarterly—this means investors have completely lost the option for autonomous redemptions, and the previous rule allowing 5% fund cash withdrawals per quarter was directly canceled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，Blue Owl Capital（OWL）宣布对其 OBDC II 基金实施永久性赎回限制，并计划分阶段清算资产，以每季度向投资者返还现金——这意味着投资者完全失去了自主赎回的选项，之前允许每季度提取 5% 基金现金的规则被直接取消。</p>
</div><p>As early as September 2025, the bankruptcies of auto parts manufacturer First Brands and subprime lender Tricolor Holdings ignited market fears over risks from highly leveraged borrowers. More importantly, these two companies were backed by several well-known banks, including UBS ( UBS) O'Connor and Jefferies ( JEF) Financial Group, which had extended hundreds of millions of dollars in loans to them, leading the market to worry about risk transmission into the financial system.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>早在 2025 年 9 月，汽车零部件制造商 First Brands 和次级贷款机构 Tricolor Holdings 的破产点燃了市场对高杠杆借款人风险的担忧。更重要的是，这两家公司得到了包括瑞银（UBS）O'Connor 和杰富瑞（JEF）金融集团在内的几家知名银行的支持，这些银行向它们提供了数亿美元的贷款，导致市场担心风险传导到金融系统。</p>
</div><h2>Chain Reaction from Private Credit to the Financial System</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>私募信贷对金融系统的连锁反应</h2>
</div><p>JPMorgan Chase ( JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon once issued a warning on this: the corporate credit environment has been too loose over the past decade, and 'when you see one cockroach, there are probably many more in the shadows.' This warning was soon echoed in the capital markets, as investors began a frantic sell-off of assets related to high-risk borrowers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通（JPM）首席执行官 Jamie Dimon 曾对此发出警告：过去十年企业信贷环境过于宽松，“当你看到一只蟑螂时，可能还有许多在阴影中。” 这一警告很快在资本市场上得到了呼应，投资者开始疯狂抛售与高风险借款人相关的资产。</p>
</div><p>Moody's data shows that large U.S. banks have extended approximately $300 billion in loans to private credit institutions, funding that has fueled the expansion of the private credit industry. During the Trump administration, private debt products further penetrated the brokerage and retirement accounts of millions of ordinary American investors, meaning the scope of risk transmission could far exceed expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>穆迪的数据表明，美国大型银行已向私募信贷机构提供了约 3000 亿美元的贷款，这些资金助长了私募信贷行业的扩张。在特朗普政府期间，私募债务产品进一步渗透到数百万普通美国投资者的经纪和退休账户中，这意味着风险传导的范围可能远超预期。</p>
</div><p>Even more alarming is the rapid expansion of non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs). Recent research from the New York Fed shows that NBFIs' share of global financial assets has exceeded 50%, and is as high as 60% in the U.S., with their influence on the financial system continuously amplifying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更令人担忧的是非银行金融中介（NBFIs）的快速扩张。纽约联邦储备银行的最新研究显示，NBFIs 在全球金融资产中的份额已超过 50%，在美国高达 60%，其对金融系统的影响持续增强。</p>
</div><p>This 'multi-layered nested' risk transmission chain requires particular attention. Although banks have reduced direct lending to the real economy since the financial crisis, they participate indirectly in subsequent credit allocation by issuing senior loans to NBFIs—which then lend the funds as junior credit to end-borrowers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个 “多层嵌套” 的风险传递链需要特别关注。尽管自金融危机以来，银行已减少对实体经济的直接贷款，但它们通过向非银行金融机构（NBFIs）发放高级贷款，间接参与后续的信贷分配，这些非银行金融机构再将资金作为次级信贷贷给最终借款人。</p>
</div><p>Once a problem occurs in the intermediate links, risks are likely to transmit backward along the chain to the banking system. Fed Vice Chair Bowman noted that banks issued 60% of mortgages before the financial crisis, whereas today that proportion has nearly halved, with many borrowers turning to non-bank lenders, making the structure of the financial system more complex.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一旦中间环节出现问题，风险很可能沿着链条向后传递至银行系统。美联储副主席鲍曼指出，金融危机前，银行发放了 60% 的抵押贷款，而如今这一比例几乎减半，许多借款人转向非银行贷款机构，使金融系统的结构更加复杂。</p>
</div><h2>Could Credit Risk Trigger a Hidden Threat to U.S. Stocks?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>信用风险会引发美国股票的隐患吗？</h2>
</div><p>From the disruptive impact of the AI industry to the emergence of crises in the private credit market, a series of chain reactions could expose U.S. stocks and even the U.S. economy to black swan risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从人工智能行业的破坏性影响到私人信贷市场危机的出现，一系列连锁反应可能使美国股票甚至美国经济面临黑天鹅风险。</p>
</div><p>JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon issued a warning about the U.S. economy at Monday's annual investor day—the current market environment of high asset prices and cutthroat competition in the banking industry reminded him of the situation before the 2008 financial crisis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在周一的年度投资者日上对美国经济发出了警告——当前高资产价格和银行业激烈竞争的市场环境让他想起了 2008 年金融危机前的情况。</p>
</div><p>While many economists are optimistic about the Trump administration's tax cuts and deregulation policies, believing they will drive U.S. economic growth this year, Dimon remained exceptionally cautious. He admitted that he prefers to anticipate potential risks while market expectations are high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管许多经济学家对特朗普政府的减税和放松监管政策持乐观态度，认为这些政策将推动美国经济在今年增长，但戴蒙依然异常谨慎。他承认，他更倾向于在市场预期高涨时预见潜在风险。</p>
</div><p>'I personally think people are getting a little blindly optimistic—thinking that current high asset prices and massive trading volumes are the norm and that there won't be any problems in the future,' Dimon said at the meeting. 'The cycle will turn one day... I don't know what the trigger will be, but I'm very anxious about it. High asset prices don't make me feel safe; instead, I feel that risks are continuously accumulating.'</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>‘我个人认为人们有些盲目乐观——认为当前的高资产价格和巨大的交易量是常态，未来不会出现任何问题，’ 戴蒙在会议上表示。‘周期总会转变……我不知道触发因素是什么，但我对此非常担忧。高资产价格并没有让我感到安全；相反，我觉得风险在不断积累。’</p>
</div><p>In his view, the succession of economic cycles is an inevitable trend. Once the cycle turns, a wave of borrower defaults will follow, affecting not just lenders but often spilling over into industries people least expect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在他看来，经济周期的更替是一个不可避免的趋势。一旦周期转变，一波借款人违约将随之而来，影响的不仅是贷款人，往往还会波及到人们最意想不到的行业。</p>
</div><p>'There are always some unexpected situations in the credit cycle, and usually the most surprising industries end up being hit the hardest,' Dimon cited as an example. 'In 2008 and 2009, no one expected utilities and telecom companies to be affected, but this time, the rise of artificial intelligence could put the software industry on the front lines.'</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>‘信用周期中总会出现一些意想不到的情况，通常最令人惊讶的行业最终受到的打击最重，’ 戴蒙举例说道。‘在 2008 年和 2009 年，没有人预料到公用事业和电信公司会受到影响，但这次，人工智能的崛起可能会将软件行业置于前线。’</p>
</div><p>Regarding the risks in the private credit market, Dimon expressed complete agreement with his deputies' judgments. Troy Rohrbaugh, Co-Head of Commercial &amp; Investment Banking at JPMorgan, pointed out during the event that current credit issues will not be limited to the private credit sector but could 'spread to the broader market.'</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于私人信贷市场的风险，戴蒙对他的副手们的判断表示完全赞同。摩根大通商业与投资银行联席主管特洛伊·罗尔巴赫在活动中指出，目前的信贷问题不会仅限于私人信贷领域，而可能 ‘扩散到更广泛的市场。’</p>
</div><p>He mentioned: 'For now, risks seem to be appearing only locally, but that situation could change at any time, and we are prepared for it.'</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他提到：‘目前，风险似乎只在局部出现，但这种情况随时可能改变，我们对此做好了准备。’</p>
</div><p>Dimon finally reiterated that the current market environment is strikingly similar to the three years preceding the 2008 financial crisis: 'Everyone is making a lot of money, leverage is high, and everyone thinks everything is possible, but risk is often hidden in this kind of blind optimism.'</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>戴蒙最后重申，当前的市场环境与 2008 年金融危机前的三年惊人相似：‘每个人都赚了很多钱，杠杆率很高，大家都认为一切皆有可能，但风险往往隐藏在这种盲目的乐观中。’</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多</p>
</div>

AI Doomsday Prophecies Spook Markets? Are We on the Eve of Another Financial Crisis?

- AI 技术引发的潜在失业潮可能导致 2028 年失业率升至 10.2%。
- 私人信贷市场面临破产和流动性危机，影响金融系统稳定。
- JPMorgan 首席执行官警告高资产价格下的风险可能导致经济危机。

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AI 末日预言是否吓坏了市场？我们是否正处于另一场金融危机的前夕？