<p>一个幽灵正在困扰墨西哥的投资环境——监管和税收不确定性的幽灵。</p>
<p>墨西哥的结构性和地理优势众所周知，几十年来吸引了大量投资兴趣。北美自由贸易协定的重新谈判为美墨加协定，加上重新调整供应链和推动经济安全的努力，见证了墨西哥外商直接投资的繁荣。</p>
<p>然而，谢因鲍姆政府的政策选择可能会削弱该国的投资吸引力，并阻碍经济增长。随着关税改变其他地方的贸易模式，墨西哥巩固其作为美国主要贸易伙伴的角色，投资不确定性将对跨境产生溢出效应，影响北美供应链以及减少地缘政治干扰和对中国胁迫的脆弱性相关的努力。</p>
<p>在其前任政府最后几年社会和基础设施支出激增之后，墨西哥政府面临着减少财政赤字和巩固国家财政的压力。近年来，这表现为通过对企业征税来提高财政收入的激进运动，有时甚至对在前任政府下解决的案件索取追溯费用。墨西哥政府已对数十家大型企业追索欠税和其他罚款。</p>
<p>墨西哥城的政策选择所释放的不确定性直接违背了法治和稳定。结果在 2026 年的经济增长预测中显而易见。尽管墨西哥与美国的贸易在美墨加协定下仍然免关税，但该国今年的 GDP 增长预估仅为微薄的 0.6% 到 1.5%。制约因素是投资。墨西哥的总投资（定义为私人、公共和外资的总和）在 2025 年下降了大约 10%。</p>
<p>墨西哥在财政领域的政策为北美的投资设定了一个危险的先例。它们还确保了该国享有的结构性和地理优势未能转化为持久的经济收益。</p>
<p>当今天适用的规则在明天并不明确适用时，当执法未能尊重透明性、可预测性和非追溯性的基本原则时，企业会将资本留在一旁以对冲风险。在某些情况下，重大变化在几乎没有通知和没有实质性实施期的情况下被引入，导致北美供应链的立即运营中断。</p>
<p>更糟糕的是，墨西哥的司法改革使得全国每位法官都由民众选举，初轮选举将在 2025 年进行，第二轮将在 2027 年进行，这巩固了执政的莫雷纳党对墨西哥所有政府部门的控制。</p>
<p>企业必须在一个越来越倾向于追求偶尔掠夺性政策的墨西哥国家的法院系统中寻求补救。激进的审计和拒绝退款请求旨在恐吓企业，并传达出支付是最轻松的选择的信息。结果是扩张计划被搁置，利润被冻结以作为对抗执法风险的储备。</p>
<p>即使是墨西哥备受推崇的特殊经济区也未能幸免。长期以来被认为是推动该国出口导向增长和提高竞争力的主要因素，企业报告称墨西哥政府忽视了前几届墨西哥政府承认的税收扣除和豁免，甚至对在这些制造导向区域内运营的一些企业实施双重征税。</p>
<p>正如我的组织在最近的分析中指出的：“行业向美国贸易代表的提交说明了这一动态，企业报告称增值税规则的追溯性重新解释，在某些情况下甚至追溯近十年。” 更复杂的是，追溯性得到了墨西哥法官的支持。</p>
<p>墨西哥的政策选择不可避免地成为北美的问题。在即将进行的美墨加协定审查中，墨西哥的投资环境及其对美国和加拿大公司的影响将受到密切关注。事实上，在最近向美国国会的证词中，美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔提到投资不确定性给美墨加协定的未来蒙上了阴影。墨西哥的政策选择，进而，可能会影响北美作为投资目的地的整体看法。</p>
<p>由于这种痛苦在很大程度上是自我造成的，解决方案是显而易见的。诚然，税收执法对多个墨西哥政府来说一直是一个挑战，但财政赤字不能也不应该通过挤压在北美按照既定规则和与前政府达成的协议运营的企业来解决。相反，莫雷纳党应该努力减少墨西哥经济中的非正式性，并对那些逃避支付多年的富人进行合规执法——其中一些人甚至是该党内部的重要人物。</p>
<p>不确定的审计、激进的税收索赔和不断变化的规则可能看似是从企业榨取资源的快速解决方案，但它们不会解决莫雷纳的财政困境，可能只会损害墨西哥的长期声誉。只有能够创造进一步投资条件的监管环境才能帮助墨西哥实现其全部潜力。</p>
<p><em>瑞安·C·伯格，博士，是战略与国际研究中心美洲项目的主任。</em></p>

墨西哥 3 倍做多 MSCI ETF - Direxion

iShares MSCI墨西哥投资指数ETF

Franklin富时墨西哥ETF

<p>墨西哥的投资环境正面临重大挑战，原因在于谢因鲍姆政府下的监管和税收不确定性。尽管该国具有结构性优势，并且外国直接投资正在蓬勃发展，但激进的税收政策和追溯性索赔正在削弱经济增长和稳定性。国内生产总值（GDP）增长的预测较低，总投资也有所下降。司法改革巩固了权力，并为企业创造了敌对环境，导致北美供应链的运营中断。即将进行的美墨加协定（USMCA）审查将对此类问题进行审查，因为墨西哥的政策有损北美作为投资目的地的形象</p>

<p>A specter is haunting Mexico’s investment climate — the specter of regulatory and tax uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个幽灵正在困扰墨西哥的投资环境——监管和税收不确定性的幽灵。</p>
</div><p>Mexico’s structural and geographic advantages are well-known and have generated considerable investment interest for decades. The renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, combined with the drive to rewire supply chains and push for economic security, has witnessed a boom in foreign direct investment in Mexico.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨西哥的结构性和地理优势众所周知，几十年来吸引了大量投资兴趣。北美自由贸易协定的重新谈判为美墨加协定，加上重新调整供应链和推动经济安全的努力，见证了墨西哥外商直接投资的繁荣。</p>
</div><p>However, policy choices by the Sheinbaum government risk undermining the country’s investment proposition and stymieing economic growth. And as tariffs alter trading patterns elsewhere and Mexico solidifies its role as the United States’ top overall trade partner, investment uncertainty will have cross-border spillover effects that impact North American supply chains as well as related efforts to reduce geopolitical disruptions and vulnerabilities to China’s coercion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，谢因鲍姆政府的政策选择可能会削弱该国的投资吸引力，并阻碍经济增长。随着关税改变其他地方的贸易模式，墨西哥巩固其作为美国主要贸易伙伴的角色，投资不确定性将对跨境产生溢出效应，影响北美供应链以及减少地缘政治干扰和对中国胁迫的脆弱性相关的努力。</p>
</div><p>Following an explosion of social and infrastructure spending in the final years of her predecessor’s administration, the Mexican government is under pressure to reduce fiscal deficits and shore up the country’s finances. In recent years, this has manifested in an aggressive campaign to raise fiscal revenues by taxing companies, sometimes claiming retroactive fees on cases settled under previous administrations. The Mexican government has pursued claims against dozens of large companies for back taxes and other penalties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其前任政府最后几年社会和基础设施支出激增之后，墨西哥政府面临着减少财政赤字和巩固国家财政的压力。近年来，这表现为通过对企业征税来提高财政收入的激进运动，有时甚至对在前任政府下解决的案件索取追溯费用。墨西哥政府已对数十家大型企业追索欠税和其他罚款。</p>
</div><p>The uncertainty unleashed by Mexico City’s policy choices cuts directly against rule of law and stability. The results are visible in anemic economic growth projections for 2026. Much of Mexico’s trade with the U.S. remains tariff free under the USMCA; nevertheless, the country’s GDP growth estimate for this year is a paltry 0.6 to 1.5 percent. The binding constraint is investment. Total investment in Mexico, defined as the sum of private, public and foreign investment, declined by roughly 10 percent in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨西哥城的政策选择所释放的不确定性直接违背了法治和稳定。结果在 2026 年的经济增长预测中显而易见。尽管墨西哥与美国的贸易在美墨加协定下仍然免关税，但该国今年的 GDP 增长预估仅为微薄的 0.6% 到 1.5%。制约因素是投资。墨西哥的总投资（定义为私人、公共和外资的总和）在 2025 年下降了大约 10%。</p>
</div><p>Mexico’s policies in the fiscal space set a dangerous precedent for investment in North America. They also ensure that the structural and geographic advantages the country enjoys fail to materialize into durable economic gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨西哥在财政领域的政策为北美的投资设定了一个危险的先例。它们还确保了该国享有的结构性和地理优势未能转化为持久的经济收益。</p>
</div><p>When the rules applied today do not clearly apply to tomorrow, and when enforcement fails to respect basic tenets of transparency, predictability and non-retroactivity, firms leave capital on the sidelines to hedge against contingencies. In some cases, major changes have been introduced with little notice and no meaningful implementation period, creating immediate operational disruptions across North American supply chains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当今天适用的规则在明天并不明确适用时，当执法未能尊重透明性、可预测性和非追溯性的基本原则时，企业会将资本留在一旁以对冲风险。在某些情况下，重大变化在几乎没有通知和没有实质性实施期的情况下被引入，导致北美供应链的立即运营中断。</p>
</div><p>To compound these matters, Mexico’s judicial overhaul, under which every justice in the country is popularly elected, with an initial round of elections in 2025 and a second in 2027, has consolidated the ruling Morena Party’s control over all branches of Mexico’s government.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更糟糕的是，墨西哥的司法改革使得全国每位法官都由民众选举，初轮选举将在 2025 年进行，第二轮将在 2027 年进行，这巩固了执政的莫雷纳党对墨西哥所有政府部门的控制。</p>
</div><p>Companies must pursue remediation in a court system increasingly favoring a Mexican state pursuing occasionally predatory policies. Aggressive audits and the denial of refund requests serve to intimidate companies and send the message that payment is the path of least resistance. The result is that expansion plans are put on hold, and profits are immobilized to remain in reserve as a hedge against enforcement risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>企业必须在一个越来越倾向于追求偶尔掠夺性政策的墨西哥国家的法院系统中寻求补救。激进的审计和拒绝退款请求旨在恐吓企业，并传达出支付是最轻松的选择的信息。结果是扩张计划被搁置，利润被冻结以作为对抗执法风险的储备。</p>
</div><p>Not even Mexico’s vaunted special economic zones have been spared. Long recognized as responsible for driving much of the country’s export-oriented growth and increasing its competitiveness, companies report the Mexican government ignoring tax deductions and exemptions recognized under previous Mexican administrations and even engaging in double taxation against some companies operating in these manufacturing-oriented zones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使是墨西哥备受推崇的特殊经济区也未能幸免。长期以来被认为是推动该国出口导向增长和提高竞争力的主要因素，企业报告称墨西哥政府忽视了前几届墨西哥政府承认的税收扣除和豁免，甚至对在这些制造导向区域内运营的一些企业实施双重征税。</p>
</div><p>As my organization noted in a recent analysis: “Industry submissions to the U.S. Trade Representative illustrate this dynamic, with firms reporting retroactive reinterpretations of value-added tax rules, in some instances extending back nearly a decade.” To complicate matters, retroactivity has been supported by Mexican justices before.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我的组织在最近的分析中指出的：“行业向美国贸易代表的提交说明了这一动态，企业报告称增值税规则的追溯性重新解释，在某些情况下甚至追溯近十年。” 更复杂的是，追溯性得到了墨西哥法官的支持。</p>
</div><p>Mexico’s policy choices are inevitably a North America problem. During the upcoming USMCA review, Mexico’s investment climate and the impacts on U.S. and Canadian companies will be under intense scrutiny. Indeed, in recent testimony before the U.S. Congress, United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer referenced investment uncertainty casting a shadow over the future of the USMCA. Mexico’s policy choices, by extension, risk tainting broader perceptions of North America as an investment destination.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨西哥的政策选择不可避免地成为北美的问题。在即将进行的美墨加协定审查中，墨西哥的投资环境及其对美国和加拿大公司的影响将受到密切关注。事实上，在最近向美国国会的证词中，美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔提到投资不确定性给美墨加协定的未来蒙上了阴影。墨西哥的政策选择，进而，可能会影响北美作为投资目的地的整体看法。</p>
</div><p>Since much of this pain is self-inflicted, the solutions are well known. To be sure, tax enforcement has been a challenge for multiple Mexican administrations, but the fiscal shortfall cannot and should not come from squeezing companies operating in North America under established rules and prior agreements reached with previous governments. Instead, the Morena Party should work to reduce informality in Mexico’s economy and enforce compliance against wealthy individuals who have evaded payment for years — some of whom are even major figures within the party itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于这种痛苦在很大程度上是自我造成的，解决方案是显而易见的。诚然，税收执法对多个墨西哥政府来说一直是一个挑战，但财政赤字不能也不应该通过挤压在北美按照既定规则和与前政府达成的协议运营的企业来解决。相反，莫雷纳党应该努力减少墨西哥经济中的非正式性，并对那些逃避支付多年的富人进行合规执法——其中一些人甚至是该党内部的重要人物。</p>
</div><p>Uncertain audits, aggressive tax claims and shifting rules may seem like quick fixes to wring resources from companies, but they will not solve Morena’s fiscal woes and will likely only damage Mexico’s long-term reputation. Only a regulatory climate capable of generating conditions for further investment can help Mexico reach its full potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不确定的审计、激进的税收索赔和不断变化的规则可能看似是从企业榨取资源的快速解决方案，但它们不会解决莫雷纳的财政困境，可能只会损害墨西哥的长期声誉。只有能够创造进一步投资条件的监管环境才能帮助墨西哥实现其全部潜力。</p>
</div><p><em>Ryan C. Berg, Ph.D. is director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>瑞安·C·伯格，博士，是战略与国际研究中心美洲项目的主任。</em></p>
</div>

墨西哥的混乱局势正在干扰北美自由贸易