<p>作者：Vivien Lou Chen</p>
<p>一位投资组合经理表示，人工智能对债券市场的传染效应 “已经开始变得真实”。</p>
<p>对人工智能对美国经济和劳动力市场破坏性影响的担忧在周五反映在国债市场上。</p>
<p>基准 10 年期国债收益率在周五跌破 4%，美国政府债务反弹，使得这一利率有望达到四个月来的最低水平，尽管一月份的生产者价格指数报告意外走高。</p>
<p>通常情况下，PPI 数据走高后收益率应该会飙升，因为这预示着顽固的通胀前景，但周五并非如此。相反，30 万亿美元的债券市场正在关注其他因素：对人工智能对美国经济破坏性影响的担忧。10 年期收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y 降至 3.96% 的低点，而 30 年期债券 BX:TMUBMUSD30Y 的利率滑落至 4.63%，也有望创下四个月来的最低水平。与此同时，避险情绪使道琼斯工业平均指数 DJIA 一度下跌 820.42 点，跌至 48,678.78 的会话低点。</p>
<p>阅读：批发价格大幅上涨，指向持续的通胀</p>
<p>10 年期收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y 跌破 4% 是重要的，因为这表明交易员已从对经济增长和健康的预期转向更令人担忧的情景。投资组合经理 Vincent Ahn 在德克萨斯州普莱诺的 Wisdom 固定收益管理公司表示，如果收益率跌破 3.75%，债券市场将基本上在定价 “真正的增长恐慌”。</p>
<p>周五的债市波动 “在尖叫着就业和增长的担忧占据主导地位。催化剂非常明显：这是巨大的人工智能恐慌，从科技行业的故事跳跃到宏观故事，” Ahn 在电话采访中表示。他指出，如果 10 年期收益率在一周内跌破 3.75%，那将是一次 “无序的变动”。一些可能的结果包括美国股票的当前轮动变成 “更广泛的避险行为，完全退出股票市场”，以及对美联储下次降息的预期提前到 5 月或 6 月。</p>
<p>通常情况下，较低的债券收益率对消费者、企业和美国政府是有利的，因为它们降低了整体借贷成本。例如，根据 Freddie Mac 的数据，新的 30 年期固定抵押贷款的周平均利率周四首次跌破 6%，这是三年多来的首次。但如果收益率下降是因为对经济或就业市场的预期恶化，那么情况就会改变，因为这种 “避险交易” 可能会伴随股票和其他资产的下跌。</p>
<p>人工智能的恐惧位于债券市场当前考虑的担忧之首。其他担忧包括特朗普总统努力替代一周前被最高法院推翻的关税所带来的不确定性；美国和伊朗在最新一轮核谈判中未能达成协议；以及股市的波动性。</p>
<p>Interactive Brokers 的经济学家 Jose Torres 告诉 MarketWatch，周五国债受到强劲买盘的推动，因为人们担心科技公司的一年低迷可能会影响消费者支出，以及对人工智能热情减退可能会抑制美国经济表现的风险。与此同时，高盛的一组团队在一份报告中写道，人工智能在固定收益市场的影响并非 “简单明了”，而是美国生产力增长的转变可能涉及利率的显著变化。</p>
<p>对人工智能在软件行业破坏性力量的担忧导致 Salesforce (CRM)、Intuit (INTU)、Workday (WDAY) 和 ServiceNow (NOW) 等公司的股价在一月份和本月遭受重创——不过投资者在最近几天重新考虑了这一论点。在过去几周，人工智能的恐慌已经从软件公司蔓延到保险经纪、财富管理和卡车运输公司。</p>
<p>随后发布了一份由 Citrini Research 共同撰写的 2 月 22 日的论文，描绘了一个由人工智能引发的反乌托邦未来，包括到 2027 年第二季度美国经济衰退的预测，2028 年标准普尔 500 指数可能从 2026 年 10 月的高点下跌 38% 的情景，以及两年后失业率飙升至 10% 以上。这份论文引起了广泛关注，也遭到了反对。</p>
<p>另见：人工智能将导致巨大的社会动荡，一份市场动荡的新论文称——但一些研究人员对此持怀疑态度。</p>
<p>更多：为什么人工智能 “科幻小说” 引发市场恐慌？我们请教了一位行为金融专家来了解。</p>
<p>FHN Financial 的策略师 Will Compernolle 在芝加哥表示，他认为长期收益率的下降更多与人工智能下经济增长前景的降低有关，而与潜在的失业损失关系不大。</p>
<p>但这在很大程度上取决于股市接下来的表现。如果 10 年期收益率在股票下跌的情况下降至 3.8% 或 3.85%，这将表明 “对未来五年或十年的经济增长预期已经降温，” Compernolle 在电话采访中表示。就目前而言，他将周五 10 年期收益率降至约 3.96% 视为仅仅是回归到去年 9 月至 12 月期间的区间。</p>
<p>Wisdom 固定收益管理公司的 Ahn 对此有不同看法。他表示，债券市场的 “传统衰退剧本” 是 “经济首先生病”，然后是失业。现在，“因果关系的箭头已经翻转”，认为 “人工智能首先在杀死工作，这使得经济生病。”</p>
<p>从债券市场的角度来看，当前收益率的持续下降并非无缘无故，Ahn 补充道。收益率已经因对新任美联储主席在 5 月后降息的预期而持续下降数月。他指出，尽管如此，人工智能对债券市场的传染效应在过去两周内却是突然的，并且 “已经开始变得真实”。</p>
<p>&#34;市场从询问 ‘哪些软件公司会在人工智能中生存？’ 转变为 ‘人工智能会消除多少工作岗位？’&#34; 这位投资组合经理表示。一个关于美国经济强劲增长、通胀降温以及美联储保持利率不变的 “金发姑娘” 叙述要求 10 年期国债收益率 “保持在大约 4% 到 4.5% 的区间内。低于 4%，市场在告诉你这个支柱的一条腿在摇晃。低于 3.75%，它在告诉你这个支柱快要翻倒了。”</p>
<p>Joseph Adinolfi 贡献。</p>
<p>-Vivien Lou Chen</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》发布。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>02-27-26 1515ET</p>

1-3年 美国国债 ETF - iShares

美国短期国债指数 ETF - iShares

美国中期公司债 - Vanguard

<p>债券市场对一份强劲的通胀报告反应异常，10 年期国债收益率因对人工智能对美国经济影响的担忧而跌破 4%。这一下降表明交易员的预期从经济增长转向对失业和经济衰退的担忧。债券市场的波动暗示股票市场可能出现更广泛的风险规避情绪，这对未来美联储降息有影响。影响市场的其他因素还包括政治发展的不确定性和科技行业的波动性</p>

<p>By Vivien Lou Chen</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Vivien Lou Chen</p>
</div><p>The contagion effect from AI into the bond market has 'started getting real,' one portfolio manager says</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一位投资组合经理表示，人工智能对债券市场的传染效应 “已经开始变得真实”。</p>
</div><p>Fears about AI's destructive power on the U.S. economy and labor market were being reflected in the Treasury market on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对人工智能对美国经济和劳动力市场破坏性影响的担忧在周五反映在国债市场上。</p>
</div><p>The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4% as U.S. government debt rallied on Friday, leaving the rate on pace for its lowest level in four months despite an unexpectedly hot producer-price index report for January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基准 10 年期国债收益率在周五跌破 4%，美国政府债务反弹，使得这一利率有望达到四个月来的最低水平，尽管一月份的生产者价格指数报告意外走高。</p>
</div><p>Ordinarily, yields should be spiking after a hot PPI print because of the prospect of stubborn inflation, but this wasn't the case on Friday. Instead, the $30 trillion bond market was moving on something else: Worries about the destructive impact of artificial intelligence on the U.S. economy. The 10-year yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y dropped to as low as 3.96%, while the rate on the 30-year bond BX:TMUBMUSD30Y slipped to 4.63% and was also poised for a four-month low. Meanwhile, risk-off sentiment sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA tumbling by as much as 820.42 points to a session low of 48,678.78.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常情况下，PPI 数据走高后收益率应该会飙升，因为这预示着顽固的通胀前景，但周五并非如此。相反，30 万亿美元的债券市场正在关注其他因素：对人工智能对美国经济破坏性影响的担忧。10 年期收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y 降至 3.96% 的低点，而 30 年期债券 BX:TMUBMUSD30Y 的利率滑落至 4.63%，也有望创下四个月来的最低水平。与此同时，避险情绪使道琼斯工业平均指数 DJIA 一度下跌 820.42 点，跌至 48,678.78 的会话低点。</p>
</div><p>Read: Wholesale prices rise sharply and point to persistent inflation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读：批发价格大幅上涨，指向持续的通胀</p>
</div><p>A drop below 4% in the 10-year yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y is significant because it signals that traders have shifted away from expectations for a growing, healthy economy and toward more worrisome scenarios. If the yield falls below 3.75%, the bond market would be essentially pricing in a &#34;genuine growth scare,&#34; said portfolio manager Vincent Ahn at Wisdom Fixed Income Management in Plano, Texas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 年期收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y 跌破 4% 是重要的，因为这表明交易员已从对经济增长和健康的预期转向更令人担忧的情景。投资组合经理 Vincent Ahn 在德克萨斯州普莱诺的 Wisdom 固定收益管理公司表示，如果收益率跌破 3.75%，债券市场将基本上在定价 “真正的增长恐慌”。</p>
</div><p>Friday's bond-market moves are &#34;screaming that job and growth fears are in the driver's seat. The catalyst is pretty obvious: It is the great AI scare, which jumped a firewall from being a tech-sector story to being a macro story,&#34; Ahn said in a phone interview. He noted that if the 10-year yield drops below 3.75% in a week, that would be a &#34;disorderly move.&#34; Some possible outcomes include the current rotation in U.S. stocks becoming a &#34;broader risk-off move out of equities altogether,&#34; and expectations for the Federal Reserve's next interest-rate cut being pulled forward to May or June, he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五的债市波动 “在尖叫着就业和增长的担忧占据主导地位。催化剂非常明显：这是巨大的人工智能恐慌，从科技行业的故事跳跃到宏观故事，” Ahn 在电话采访中表示。他指出，如果 10 年期收益率在一周内跌破 3.75%，那将是一次 “无序的变动”。一些可能的结果包括美国股票的当前轮动变成 “更广泛的避险行为，完全退出股票市场”，以及对美联储下次降息的预期提前到 5 月或 6 月。</p>
</div><p>Ordinarily, lower bond yields are good for consumers, businesses and the U.S. government because they reduce overall borrowing costs. The weekly average rate on new 30-year fixed-mortgages, for instance, fell below 6% for the first time in more than three years as of Thursday, according to Freddie Mac. But if yields are falling because of worsening expectations for the economy or job market, things change because such a &#34;flight-to-safety&#34; trade would likely be accompanied by a downturn in stocks and other assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常情况下，较低的债券收益率对消费者、企业和美国政府是有利的，因为它们降低了整体借贷成本。例如，根据 Freddie Mac 的数据，新的 30 年期固定抵押贷款的周平均利率周四首次跌破 6%，这是三年多来的首次。但如果收益率下降是因为对经济或就业市场的预期恶化，那么情况就会改变，因为这种 “避险交易” 可能会伴随股票和其他资产的下跌。</p>
</div><p>AI fears sit at the top of the list of worries that the bond market is considering right now. Other concerns include the uncertainties created by President Donald Trump's efforts to replace tariffs that were struck down by the Supreme Court a week ago; the failure of the U.S. and Iran to reach a deal during their latest round of nuclear talks; and stock-market volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能的恐惧位于债券市场当前考虑的担忧之首。其他担忧包括特朗普总统努力替代一周前被最高法院推翻的关税所带来的不确定性；美国和伊朗在最新一轮核谈判中未能达成协议；以及股市的波动性。</p>
</div><p>Jose Torres, an economist at Interactive Brokers, told MarketWatch that Treasurys were finding strong bids on Friday because of worries that a down year in technology names could weigh on consumer spending, along with the risk that softening enthusiasm over AI might hold back the U.S. economy's performance. Separately, a team at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note that AI's impact within the fixed-income market is not &#34;straightforward,&#34; and that the transition to higher U.S. productivity growth may involve a substantial variation in interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Interactive Brokers 的经济学家 Jose Torres 告诉 MarketWatch，周五国债受到强劲买盘的推动，因为人们担心科技公司的一年低迷可能会影响消费者支出，以及对人工智能热情减退可能会抑制美国经济表现的风险。与此同时，高盛的一组团队在一份报告中写道，人工智能在固定收益市场的影响并非 “简单明了”，而是美国生产力增长的转变可能涉及利率的显著变化。</p>
</div><p>Fears about AI's destructive power in the software industry have led to shares of companies like Salesforce (CRM), Intuit (INTU), Workday (WDAY), and ServiceNow (NOW) getting crushed in January and this month - only for investors to reconsider this thesis in recent days. Over the past few weeks, the AI scare has spread from software companies to insurance brokers, wealth management and trucking companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对人工智能在软件行业破坏性力量的担忧导致 Salesforce (CRM)、Intuit (INTU)、Workday (WDAY) 和 ServiceNow (NOW) 等公司的股价在一月份和本月遭受重创——不过投资者在最近几天重新考虑了这一论点。在过去几周，人工智能的恐慌已经从软件公司蔓延到保险经纪、财富管理和卡车运输公司。</p>
</div><p>Then came the release of a Feb. 22 paper co-authored by Citrini Research, which painted a dystopian future triggered by AI that includes a U.S. recession by the second quarter of 2027, a 2028 scenario in which the S&amp;P 500 SPX might fall 38% from its October 2026 highs, and an unemployment rate that spikes above 10% two years from now. It received both widespread attention, as well as pushback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随后发布了一份由 Citrini Research 共同撰写的 2 月 22 日的论文，描绘了一个由人工智能引发的反乌托邦未来，包括到 2027 年第二季度美国经济衰退的预测，2028 年标准普尔 500 指数可能从 2026 年 10 月的高点下跌 38% 的情景，以及两年后失业率飙升至 10% 以上。这份论文引起了广泛关注，也遭到了反对。</p>
</div><p>See also: AI will lead to huge societal disruption, a market-roiling new paper says - but some researchers are skeptical</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另见：人工智能将导致巨大的社会动荡，一份市场动荡的新论文称——但一些研究人员对此持怀疑态度。</p>
</div><p>More: Why did AI 'science fiction' spur market panic? We asked a behavioral-finance expert to find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更多：为什么人工智能 “科幻小说” 引发市场恐慌？我们请教了一位行为金融专家来了解。</p>
</div><p>Will Compernolle, a strategist at FHN Financial in Chicago, said he thinks the decline in long-dated yields has more to do with prospects for lower economic growth under AI and less to do with potential job losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>FHN Financial 的策略师 Will Compernolle 在芝加哥表示，他认为长期收益率的下降更多与人工智能下经济增长前景的降低有关，而与潜在的失业损失关系不大。</p>
</div><p>But much will depend on what the stock market does from here. If the 10-year yield drops to 3.8% or 3.85% while equities are falling, this would suggest that &#34;expectations for economic growth over the next five or 10 years have simmered,&#34; Compernolle said in a phone interview. For now, he views the 10-year yield's drop to around 3.96% on Friday as simply a return to the range which prevailed between September and December of last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这在很大程度上取决于股市接下来的表现。如果 10 年期收益率在股票下跌的情况下降至 3.8% 或 3.85%，这将表明 “对未来五年或十年的经济增长预期已经降温，” Compernolle 在电话采访中表示。就目前而言，他将周五 10 年期收益率降至约 3.96% 视为仅仅是回归到去年 9 月至 12 月期间的区间。</p>
</div><p>Ahn of Wisdom Fixed Income Management sees things a bit differently. He said that the bond market's &#34;traditional recession playbook&#34; is that the &#34;economy gets sick&#34; first, followed by job losses. Now, &#34;the arrow of causality has flipped&#34; on the view that &#34;AI is killing the jobs first, and that's what's making the economy sick.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Wisdom 固定收益管理公司的 Ahn 对此有不同看法。他表示，债券市场的 “传统衰退剧本” 是 “经济首先生病”，然后是失业。现在，“因果关系的箭头已经翻转”，认为 “人工智能首先在杀死工作，这使得经济生病。”</p>
</div><p>From the bond market's perspective, the current grind lower in yields didn't come out of nowhere, Ahn added. Yields have been heading lower for months due in part to expectations for lower interest rates under a new Fed chairman after May, he noted. Nonetheless, the contagion effect from AI into the bond market has been abrupt and &#34;started getting real&#34; within the past two weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从债券市场的角度来看，当前收益率的持续下降并非无缘无故，Ahn 补充道。收益率已经因对新任美联储主席在 5 月后降息的预期而持续下降数月。他指出，尽管如此，人工智能对债券市场的传染效应在过去两周内却是突然的，并且 “已经开始变得真实”。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The market went from asking, 'Which software companies will survive AI?' to 'How many jobs does AI eliminate?,'&#34; the portfolio manager said. A &#34;Goldilocks&#34; narrative of strong U.S. growth, cooling inflation and a Fed that keeps interest rates unchanged requires the 10-year yield to &#34;stay in a roughly 4% to 4.5% range. Below 4%, the market is telling you one leg of that stool is wobbling. Below 3.75%, it's telling you the stool is tipping over.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;市场从询问 ‘哪些软件公司会在人工智能中生存？’ 转变为 ‘人工智能会消除多少工作岗位？’&#34; 这位投资组合经理表示。一个关于美国经济强劲增长、通胀降温以及美联储保持利率不变的 “金发姑娘” 叙述要求 10 年期国债收益率 “保持在大约 4% 到 4.5% 的区间内。低于 4%，市场在告诉你这个支柱的一条腿在摇晃。低于 3.75%，它在告诉你这个支柱快要翻倒了。”</p>
</div><p>Joseph Adinolfi contributed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Joseph Adinolfi 贡献。</p>
</div><p>-Vivien Lou Chen</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Vivien Lou Chen</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》发布。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>02-27-26 1515ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>02-27-26 1515ET</p>
</div>

尽管有一份高通胀报告，债券市场的表现却很反常