<p>作者：Aleiah，预测市场研究员；翻译：金色财经 xz</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7436933_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7436933_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>有人在 Polymarket 上将 35,000 美元变成了 442,000 美元，回报率达 12.6 倍。他们在重大市场变动发生前几个小时就建立了头寸，而当其他人意识到发生了什么时，交易已经完成。</p>
<p>在新闻发布之前，三个钱包仅基于一次政治事件——委内瑞拉突袭，提取了 630,000 美元。</p>
<p>关键是……这些交易的每一笔都清晰可见。现在，在区块链上。Polymarket 运行在 Polygon 上，这意味着每个钱包、每笔交易、每个头寸大小都是公开数据。问题不在于你能否找到内部钱包，而在于你是否知道如何观察它们。1. Polymarket 上的每笔交易都是公开透明的。大多数预测市场交易者将 Polymarket 视为一个普通的博彩平台。他们查看赔率，做出选择，然后将其留给运气。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7436934_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7436934_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>但 Polymarket 与你熟悉的 DraftKings 或体育博彩平台不同。每笔交易都在链上记录。你几乎可以实时看到最聪明（或最可疑时机）钱包的操作。</p>
<p>Polymarket 的 API 也是完全公开的。任何人都可以访问这些数据。你不需要特殊的凭证、内部关系或 Bloomberg 终端。</p>
<p>你需要的是一个能够识别哪些钱包值得关注的系统——以及在优势消失之前实际复制他们操作的方法。</p>
<ol>
<li>Polymarket 内部钱包的真实性质 并非每个盈利钱包都是 “内部人士”。有些只是优秀的研究者，而其他则是运行算法的量化交易者。然而，某些模式存在，区分了知情头寸和幸运猜测。新账户进行大额投注 一个几天前创建、交易少于五笔的地址，突然在一个流动性差的小众市场投资 15,000 美元？这是一个警告信号。更准确地说——这是一个信号。小众市场专家 一些交易者只在一个特定领域操作——并且表现出色。他们不会同时涉足多个领域，例如加密货币价格、选举和体育。他们专注于一件事，并在交易中投入大量资金，毫不动摇。</li>
</ol>
<h3>异常头寸大小</h3>
<p>当你跟踪一个钱包的历史，发现它通常每笔交易下注 500-1,000 美元，然后突然在市场上投入 10,000 美元……情况发生了变化。要么他们获得了新信息，要么他们看到了市场上其他人没有看到的东西。</p>
<h3>时机过于完美</h3>
<p>这是最明显的迹象。那些在重大新闻发布前 2-24 小时内持续建立头寸的交易者并不是运气好。一次是巧合，两次是有趣。如果发生三次或更多次，那么你很可能看到的是一个拥有信息优势的人。</p>
<h2>3. 如何发现 Polymarket 内部资金（逐步指南）</h2>
<p>我将详细说明，因为模糊的建议毫无用处。以下是实际步骤：</p>
<h3>第一步：从 Polymarket 排行榜开始</h3>
<p>你的第一个筛选工具是公开可用的业绩数据。访问 Polymarket 分析页面，并按 30 天的盈亏排序。</p>
<p>你需要寻找具有以下特征的钱包：</p>
<ul>
<li>在至少 30 天内实现正利润；</li>
<li>胜率高于 55%；</li>
<li>总利润与总亏损之间存在显著差距；</li>
<li>在具有真实流动性的市场中活跃（不仅限于无人关注的小盘股）。这将为你提供一个初步的候选名单。并非所有这些钱包都属于内部人士——许多是熟练的交易者——但这是建立你的观察名单的起点。第二步：检查单个 Polymarket 事件中的主要持有者。访问任何活跃的 Polymarket 事件页面，查看其主要持有者列表。Polymarket 实际上显示了在各个市场中持有最大头寸的人。你需要寻找的是在多个市场中出现在主要持有者中的钱包，并且其头寸最终以有利的方式结束。一次成功可能意义不大。但形成 “早期、大额、正确” 的头寸模式？这就是你的目标。第三步：分析钱包行为和交易时机 一旦你有了候选钱包，开始研究它们的交易历史。你需要回答几个问题：他们在新闻发布前多久进入市场？在公告前 6-12 小时买入的钱包值得关注。那些在新闻报道后才买入的钱包……只是普通读者。他们如何控制头寸大小？专业交易者通常在几天或几周内逐渐建立头寸，而不是一次性投入巨额资金。但内部钱包通常行动迅速——他们没有时间慢慢积累，因为他们知道机会窗口正在关闭。他们持有头寸的时间有多长？聪明的钱包会提前进入，并在市场达到峰值之前退出。他们不会试图榨取最后一分钱的利润。他们在捕捉到大部分波动后就离开。它们是否在多个领域交易，还是仅专注于一个？最可疑的钱包往往极为专注。它们只在一个垂直领域交易。它们的操作几乎无懈可击。4. Polymarket 钱包跟踪高级策略 一旦你掌握了基础知识，还有几种更高级的策略可以将普通钱包跟踪者与真正赚钱的人区分开来。跟踪退出时机，而不仅仅是进入时机 内部人士不仅在好消息之前进入——他们还在坏消息之前退出。没有明确催化剂的大额头寸抛售往往传达的信息比他们最初的购买更有价值。当你看到一个曾经自信的钱包突然抛售 50% 的持有量……要小心。</li>
</ul>
<h3>利用钱包聚类分析</h3>
<p>链上分析可以揭示互相关联的地址——那些具有相同资金来源、相似费用模式或在几秒钟内发生相关交易的地址。一个 “新鲜” 的内部账户通常可以通过 2-3 次跳转追溯到一个早期的、已建立的地址。追踪资金链可以让你领先于他人，识别新的内部交易者。</p>
<h3>注意小众市场交易量的激增</h3>
<p>一个通常每日交易量仅为 5000 美元的市场，突然涌入了 50000 美元——没有任何新闻催化剂？一定有人知道些什么。此时，你应该检查哪些钱包在推动这一交易量，并将它们添加到你的跟踪列表中。与外部信号进行交叉参考：著名的 “比萨指数” 通过跟踪五角大楼附近的人流来预测军事活动。像这样的公开信息——航班追踪、关键人物的社交媒体活动和旅行变化——可以用来推测哪些内部钱包正在下注。</p>

<p>本文讨论了在 Polymarket 上追踪高胜率钱包地址的策略，强调了区块链交易透明的重要性。文章突出了那些在重大市场变动之前根据信息采取行动而获得可观利润的成功交易者。知情交易的关键指标包括新账户进行大额投注、特定市场的专业知识、异常的头寸规模以及在新闻发布前的一致时机。文中提供了一份识别盈利钱包的逐步指南，包括分析业绩数据、检查事件中的主要持有者以及研究交易行为</p>

<p>Author: Aleiah, Predictive Market Researcher; Translator: Jinse Finance xz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Aleiah，预测市场研究员；翻译：金色财经 xz</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7436933_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7436933_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>Someone turned $35,000 into $442,000 on Polymarket, a 12.6-fold return. They established their positions hours before a major market move occurred, and by the time others realized what was happening, the trades were already done.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有人在 Polymarket 上将 35,000 美元变成了 442,000 美元，回报率达 12.6 倍。他们在重大市场变动发生前几个小时就建立了头寸，而当其他人意识到发生了什么时，交易已经完成。</p>
</div><p>Three wallets withdrew $630,000 based solely on a political event—the Venezuelan raid—before the news even broke.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在新闻发布之前，三个钱包仅基于一次政治事件——委内瑞拉突袭，提取了 630,000 美元。</p>
</div><p>The key is... every single one of these transactions is clearly visible. Right now, on the blockchain. Polymarket runs on Polygon, meaning every wallet, every transaction, every position size is public data. The issue isn't whether you can find insider wallets, but whether you know how to observe them. 1. Every transaction on Polymarket is public and transparent. Most prediction market traders treat Polymarket as a regular betting platform. They look at the odds, make their choices, and then leave it to chance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键是……这些交易的每一笔都清晰可见。现在，在区块链上。Polymarket 运行在 Polygon 上，这意味着每个钱包、每笔交易、每个头寸大小都是公开数据。问题不在于你能否找到内部钱包，而在于你是否知道如何观察它们。1. Polymarket 上的每笔交易都是公开透明的。大多数预测市场交易者将 Polymarket 视为一个普通的博彩平台。他们查看赔率，做出选择，然后将其留给运气。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7436934_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7436934_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>But Polymarket is different from DraftKings or the sports betting platforms you're familiar with. Every transaction is recorded on-chain. You can see almost in real time what the smartest (or most dubiously timed) wallets are doing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 Polymarket 与你熟悉的 DraftKings 或体育博彩平台不同。每笔交易都在链上记录。你几乎可以实时看到最聪明（或最可疑时机）钱包的操作。</p>
</div><p>Polymarket's API is also completely public. Anyone can access this data. You don't need special credentials, insider connections, or a Bloomberg terminal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Polymarket 的 API 也是完全公开的。任何人都可以访问这些数据。你不需要特殊的凭证、内部关系或 Bloomberg 终端。</p>
</div><p>What you need is a system that can identify which wallets are worth following—and a way to actually replicate their operations before the advantage disappears.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你需要的是一个能够识别哪些钱包值得关注的系统——以及在优势消失之前实际复制他们操作的方法。</p>
</div><p>2. The True Nature of Polymarket Insider Wallets Not every profitable wallet is an &#34;insider.&#34; Some are simply excellent researchers, while others are quantitative traders running algorithms. However, certain patterns exist that distinguish informed positions from lucky guesses. New Accounts Making Large Bets An address created just a few days ago with fewer than five trades suddenly invests $15,000 in a illiquid niche market? This is a warning sign. Or more accurately—it's a signal. Niche Market Experts Some traders operate in only one specific area—and excel at it. They don't dabble in multiple areas simultaneously, such as cryptocurrency prices, elections, and sports. They specialize in only one thing and invest large sums of money in trading with unwavering conviction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>Polymarket 内部钱包的真实性质 并非每个盈利钱包都是 “内部人士”。有些只是优秀的研究者，而其他则是运行算法的量化交易者。然而，某些模式存在，区分了知情头寸和幸运猜测。新账户进行大额投注 一个几天前创建、交易少于五笔的地址，突然在一个流动性差的小众市场投资 15,000 美元？这是一个警告信号。更准确地说——这是一个信号。小众市场专家 一些交易者只在一个特定领域操作——并且表现出色。他们不会同时涉足多个领域，例如加密货币价格、选举和体育。他们专注于一件事，并在交易中投入大量资金，毫不动摇。</li>
</ol>
</div><h3>Abnormal Position Size</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>异常头寸大小</h3>
</div><p>When you track a wallet's history and find that it typically bets $500-$1,000 per trade, and then suddenly dumps $10,000 in a market… something has changed. Either they've gained new information, or they've seen something others in the market haven't.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当你跟踪一个钱包的历史，发现它通常每笔交易下注 500-1,000 美元，然后突然在市场上投入 10,000 美元……情况发生了变化。要么他们获得了新信息，要么他们看到了市场上其他人没有看到的东西。</p>
</div><h3>Overly Good Timing</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>时机过于完美</h3>
</div><p>This is the most obvious sign. Traders who consistently establish positions 2-24 hours before major news releases are not lucky. Once is a coincidence, twice is interesting. If it happens three or more times, then you're likely seeing someone with an informational advantage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是最明显的迹象。那些在重大新闻发布前 2-24 小时内持续建立头寸的交易者并不是运气好。一次是巧合，两次是有趣。如果发生三次或更多次，那么你很可能看到的是一个拥有信息优势的人。</p>
</div><h2>3. How to Discover Polymarket Insider Money (Step-by-Step Guide)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 如何发现 Polymarket 内部资金（逐步指南）</h2>
</div><p>I will go into detail next, because vague advice is useless. Here are the actual steps:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我将详细说明，因为模糊的建议毫无用处。以下是实际步骤：</p>
</div><h3>Step 1: Start with Polymarket Rankings</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>第一步：从 Polymarket 排行榜开始</h3>
</div><p>Your first screening tool is publicly available performance data. Visit the Polymarket Analytics page and sort by 30-day profit and loss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你的第一个筛选工具是公开可用的业绩数据。访问 Polymarket 分析页面，并按 30 天的盈亏排序。</p>
</div><p>You need to look for wallets with the following characteristics:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你需要寻找具有以下特征的钱包：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Achieve positive profits for at least 30 days;</li>
<li>Win rate higher than 55%;</li>
<li>A significant gap between total profit and total loss;</li>
<li>Be active in markets with real liquidity (not just limited to small-cap stocks that no one pays attention to). This will give you an initial shortlist. Not all of these wallets belong to insiders—many are skilled traders—but this is the starting point for building your watchlist. Step 2: Examine the top holders in a single Polymarket event. Go to the page of any active Polymarket event and view its list of top holders. Polymarket actually shows who holds the largest positions across various markets. What you need to look for are wallets that appear among the top holders in multiple markets, and whose positions ultimately ended in their favor. A single success may not mean much. But forming an &#34;early, large, correct&#34; position pattern? That's your goal. Step 3: Analyze Wallet Behavior and Transaction Timing Once you have candidate wallets, start researching their transaction history. You'll need to answer a few questions: When did they enter the market relative to the news? Wallets that bought in 6-12 hours before the announcement are worth watching. Those wallets that buy only after the news reports… are just ordinary readers. How do they control their position size? Professional traders build positions gradually over days or weeks, rather than investing a huge sum all at once. But insider wallets usually act quickly—they don't have time for slow accumulation because they know the window of opportunity is closing. How long do they hold their positions? Smart wallets enter early and exit before the market reaches its peak. They don't try to squeeze out the last penny of profit. They leave after capturing the majority of the move. Do they trade across multiple sectors or focus on just one? The most suspicious wallets tend to be extremely focused. They trade only in one vertical sector. And their operations are almost flawless. 4. Polymarket Wallet Tracking Advanced Strategies Once you've mastered the basics, there are several more advanced strategies that can differentiate ordinary wallet trackers from those who truly make money. Track Exit Timing, Not Just Entry Timing Insiders not only enter before good news—they also exit before bad news. A whale selling off a large position without a clear catalyst often sends a more valuable message than their initial purchase. When you see a previously confident wallet suddenly sell off 50% of its holdings… be wary.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>在至少 30 天内实现正利润；</li>
<li>胜率高于 55%；</li>
<li>总利润与总亏损之间存在显著差距；</li>
<li>在具有真实流动性的市场中活跃（不仅限于无人关注的小盘股）。这将为你提供一个初步的候选名单。并非所有这些钱包都属于内部人士——许多是熟练的交易者——但这是建立你的观察名单的起点。第二步：检查单个 Polymarket 事件中的主要持有者。访问任何活跃的 Polymarket 事件页面，查看其主要持有者列表。Polymarket 实际上显示了在各个市场中持有最大头寸的人。你需要寻找的是在多个市场中出现在主要持有者中的钱包，并且其头寸最终以有利的方式结束。一次成功可能意义不大。但形成 “早期、大额、正确” 的头寸模式？这就是你的目标。第三步：分析钱包行为和交易时机 一旦你有了候选钱包，开始研究它们的交易历史。你需要回答几个问题：他们在新闻发布前多久进入市场？在公告前 6-12 小时买入的钱包值得关注。那些在新闻报道后才买入的钱包……只是普通读者。他们如何控制头寸大小？专业交易者通常在几天或几周内逐渐建立头寸，而不是一次性投入巨额资金。但内部钱包通常行动迅速——他们没有时间慢慢积累，因为他们知道机会窗口正在关闭。他们持有头寸的时间有多长？聪明的钱包会提前进入，并在市场达到峰值之前退出。他们不会试图榨取最后一分钱的利润。他们在捕捉到大部分波动后就离开。它们是否在多个领域交易，还是仅专注于一个？最可疑的钱包往往极为专注。它们只在一个垂直领域交易。它们的操作几乎无懈可击。4. Polymarket 钱包跟踪高级策略 一旦你掌握了基础知识，还有几种更高级的策略可以将普通钱包跟踪者与真正赚钱的人区分开来。跟踪退出时机，而不仅仅是进入时机 内部人士不仅在好消息之前进入——他们还在坏消息之前退出。没有明确催化剂的大额头寸抛售往往传达的信息比他们最初的购买更有价值。当你看到一个曾经自信的钱包突然抛售 50% 的持有量……要小心。</li>
</ul>
</div><h3>Utilizing Wallet Clustering Analysis</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>利用钱包聚类分析</h3>
</div><p>On-chain analysis can reveal interconnected addresses—those with the same funding sources, similar fee patterns, or related transactions occurring within seconds.A &#34;fresh&#34; insider account can often be traced back to an earlier, established address through 2-3 hops. Tracing the funding chain allows you to get ahead of others and identify new insider traders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>链上分析可以揭示互相关联的地址——那些具有相同资金来源、相似费用模式或在几秒钟内发生相关交易的地址。一个 “新鲜” 的内部账户通常可以通过 2-3 次跳转追溯到一个早期的、已建立的地址。追踪资金链可以让你领先于他人，识别新的内部交易者。</p>
</div><h3>Pay Attention to Surges in Trading Volume in Niche Markets</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>注意小众市场交易量的激增</h3>
</div><p>A market that typically has only $5,000 in daily trading volume suddenly sees an influx of $50,000—without any news catalyst? Someone must know something.At this point, you should check which wallets are driving this trading volume and add them to your tracking list. Cross-referencing with external signals: The well-known &#34;Pizza Index&#34; predicts military activity by tracking foot traffic near the Pentagon. Publicly available information like this—flight tracking, social media activity of key figures, and travel changes—can be used to speculate on what insider wallets are betting on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个通常每日交易量仅为 5000 美元的市场，突然涌入了 50000 美元——没有任何新闻催化剂？一定有人知道些什么。此时，你应该检查哪些钱包在推动这一交易量，并将它们添加到你的跟踪列表中。与外部信号进行交叉参考：著名的 “比萨指数” 通过跟踪五角大楼附近的人流来预测军事活动。像这样的公开信息——航班追踪、关键人物的社交媒体活动和旅行变化——可以用来推测哪些内部钱包正在下注。</p>
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如何系统地追踪 Polymarket 平台上高胜率的钱包地址？