<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Dusk-at-a-bustling-energy-port.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Dusk-at-a-bustling-energy-port.png"/></p>
<p>根据最新的 ING 集团报告，来自伊朗重新军事行动的地缘政治风险增加，严重影响了新兴市场（EM）信用，导致更广泛的风险规避环境和能源价格飙升。</p>
<p>报告称，海湾合作委员会（GCC）主权国家正面临来自地区不稳定加剧的压力。</p>
<p>最近的中东事件显著推高了能源价格，布伦特原油价格从 2 月中旬的 70 美元以下和 12 月底的 60 美元上涨至每桶 85 美元以上。</p>
<h2>能源价格飙升使新兴市场出口国和进口国分化</h2>
<p>这种分化对新兴市场主权国家产生了影响，特别是大型能源进口国，可能面临更高的通货膨胀和恶化的外部平衡。</p>
<p>中东欧国家——包括北马其顿、塞尔维亚、匈牙利和土耳其——是其中暴露较大的国家。</p>
<p>同样，非洲前沿国家如赞比亚和塞内加尔，以及拉丁美洲经济体如巴拿马和萨尔瓦多也在此列。</p>
<p>由于能源赤字较大，巴基斯坦也属于这一类别。</p>
<p>根据 ING 集团新兴市场主权策略师詹姆斯·威尔逊在最近的报告中所述，这些国家对能源价格和供应条件的变化特别脆弱。</p>
<p>“当然，这种动态的另一面是，石油出口国通常应该从价格飙升中受益，” 威尔逊说。</p>
<p>阿曼、科威特和卡塔尔通常拥有超过其 GDP 30% 的显著净燃料盈余。</p>
<p>然而，这些国家在该地区固有的潜在安全风险可能会抵消因油价上涨而带来的经济优势。</p>
<p>因此，威尔逊补充道，投资者可能会将位于直接区域之外的石油出口国视为油价上涨的潜在受益者。</p>
<p>这些国家包括安哥拉、加蓬和尼日利亚等非洲国家，以及中亚的哈萨克斯坦。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708339.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708339.png"/></p>
<p>来源：ING 研究</p>
<h2>GCC 地区影响各异；情绪减弱</h2>
<p>在 GCC 国家集团中，油价与主权风险溢价之间的典型相关性最近减弱。</p>
<p>尽管油价飙升，GCC 主权利差相对于投资级同行的利差却有所扩大，报告指出。</p>
<p>这种分化发生在地区紧张局势的背景下，包括伊朗对 GCC 军事基地和石油/炼油设施的报复行动，这也引发了对油轮交通安全的担忧，从而影响出口路线。</p>
<p>这种影响在 GCC 内部并不均匀。由于资产负债表较弱和基本面恶化，巴林是最脆弱的信用国家，与阿曼的改善状况和去年恢复投资级评级形成鲜明对比。</p>
<p>阿曼是该地区最公开中立的国家，尽管面临无人机攻击，但仍呼吁降级。</p>
<p>威尔逊指出，与严重依赖霍尔木兹海出口液化天然气的卡塔尔相比，阿曼似乎对霍尔木兹海的出口依赖较小。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708372.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708372.png"/></p>
<p>来源：ING 研究</p>
<p>与此同时，阿联酋面临重大经济后果，主要通过对其关键行业的干扰：旅游、旅行和过境。</p>
<p>这些挑战因该国被移出摩根大通的 EMBI 债券指数而加剧，导致其硬币债券面临困难时期。</p>
<p>然而，这一移除基本上是由于阿联酋 “毕业” 出新兴市场地位。</p>
<p>沙特阿拉伯的主要风险是其能源基础设施的干扰；然而，威尔逊指出，该国部分缓解了这一风险，因为通过红海有潜在的替代出口路线。</p>
<h2>风险规避情绪可能逆转新兴市场情绪改善</h2>
<p>全球范围内，强势美元、更高收益率和风险规避情绪正在挑战新兴市场信用市场。</p>
<p>尽管影响取决于军事行动的持续时间和严重性，但这些发展发生在去年新兴市场投资者情绪改善的一年之后。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708417.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708417.png"/></p>
<p>来源：ING 研究</p>
<p>“自去年 ‘解放日’ 以来，我们已经看到新兴市场资产的广泛流入，包括在年初各地区新兴市场债务中的强劲投资组合，” 威尔逊补充道。</p>
<p>初级发行的强劲势头最近显然放缓。</p>
<p>此外，如果年初对该资产类别的初步积极共识发生变化，流入新兴市场的更持久逆转仍然是一个风险。</p>
<p>报告指出，新兴市场信用的广泛收紧使利差水平接近历史低点，显著低于最新波动之前所有评级类别的长期平均水平。</p>
<p>尽管最近的抛售相对有序，但根据威尔逊的说法，这只是长期前景中的小幅波动。</p>
<p>如果冲突升级且全球干扰持续，我们预计利差将从当前水平进一步扩大。</p>
<p>具体而言，较高贝塔值的前沿名称的单 B 利差可能面临显著风险，他补充道。</p>
<p>伊朗紧张局势后，油价飙升动摇了新兴市场信用，首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

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<p>由于伊朗重新军事行动带来的地缘政治风险增加，ING 集团报告称，这对新兴市场（EM）信用产生了负面影响。能源价格飙升，布伦特原油价格超过每桶 85 美元，导致新兴市场出口国和进口国之间出现分歧，使大型进口国面临更高的通货膨胀。北马其顿、土耳其和赞比亚等国尤其脆弱。虽然石油出口国可能受益，但地区安全风险可能抵消这些收益。总体而言，风险规避情绪和强势美元对新兴市场信用市场构成挑战，扭转了近期的积极趋势</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Dusk-at-a-bustling-energy-port.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Dusk-at-a-bustling-energy-port.png"/></p>
<p>Increased geopolitical risk, stemming from renewed military action in Iran, has severely impacted emerging market (EM) credit due to a broader risk-off environment and a spike in energy prices, according to a latest ING Group report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据最新的 ING 集团报告，来自伊朗重新军事行动的地缘政治风险增加，严重影响了新兴市场（EM）信用，导致更广泛的风险规避环境和能源价格飙升。</p>
</div><p>Specifically, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) sovereigns are experiencing pressure from the heightened regional instability, the report claimed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告称，海湾合作委员会（GCC）主权国家正面临来自地区不稳定加剧的压力。</p>
</div><p>Recent Middle East events have significantly spiked energy prices, with Brent crude rising above $85 per barrel from below $70 in mid-February and $60 in late December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的中东事件显著推高了能源价格，布伦特原油价格从 2 月中旬的 70 美元以下和 12 月底的 60 美元上涨至每桶 85 美元以上。</p>
</div><h2>Energy price spike divides EM exporters and importers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>能源价格飙升使新兴市场出口国和进口国分化</h2>
</div><p>This divergence has implications for emerging market sovereigns, particularly large energy importers that are likely to face higher inflation and deteriorating external balances.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种分化对新兴市场主权国家产生了影响，特别是大型能源进口国，可能面临更高的通货膨胀和恶化的外部平衡。</p>
</div><p>Countries in Central and Eastern Europe — including North Macedonia, Serbia, Hungary, and Turkey — are among those with significant exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中东欧国家——包括北马其顿、塞尔维亚、匈牙利和土耳其——是其中暴露较大的国家。</p>
</div><p>The same applies to African frontier sovereigns such as Zambia and Senegal, as well as Latin American economies including Panama and El Salvador.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样，非洲前沿国家如赞比亚和塞内加尔，以及拉丁美洲经济体如巴拿马和萨尔瓦多也在此列。</p>
</div><p>Pakistan also falls into this category due to its large energy deficit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于能源赤字较大，巴基斯坦也属于这一类别。</p>
</div><p>These countries are particularly vulnerable to shifts in energy prices and supply conditions, according to James Wilson, emerging market sovereign strategist at ING Group, in a recent report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 ING 集团新兴市场主权策略师詹姆斯·威尔逊在最近的报告中所述，这些国家对能源价格和供应条件的变化特别脆弱。</p>
</div><p>“The flip side of this dynamic, of course, is that oil exporters generally should benefit from the spike in prices,” Wilson said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“当然，这种动态的另一面是，石油出口国通常应该从价格飙升中受益，” 威尔逊说。</p>
</div><p>Oman, Kuwait, and Qatar generally possess a significant net fuel surplus, exceeding 30% of their GDP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿曼、科威特和卡塔尔通常拥有超过其 GDP 30% 的显著净燃料盈余。</p>
</div><p>However, the potential security risks inherent in the region for these nations are likely to negate the economic advantages derived from higher oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这些国家在该地区固有的潜在安全风险可能会抵消因油价上涨而带来的经济优势。</p>
</div><p>As a result, investors are likely to view oil exporters outside the immediate region as potential beneficiaries of higher oil prices, Wilson added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，威尔逊补充道，投资者可能会将位于直接区域之外的石油出口国视为油价上涨的潜在受益者。</p>
</div><p>These include African nations such as Angola, Gabon, and Nigeria, as well as Kazakhstan in Central Asia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些国家包括安哥拉、加蓬和尼日利亚等非洲国家，以及中亚的哈萨克斯坦。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708339.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708339.png"/></p>
<p>Source: ING Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：ING 研究</p>
</div><h2>GCC regional impact varies; sentiment weakens</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>GCC 地区影响各异；情绪减弱</h2>
</div><p>In the GCC country group, the typical correlation between oil prices and sovereign risk premium has recently weakened.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 GCC 国家集团中，油价与主权风险溢价之间的典型相关性最近减弱。</p>
</div><p>Despite the surge in oil prices, GCC sovereign spreads have widened relative to Investment Grade peers, according to the report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管油价飙升，GCC 主权利差相对于投资级同行的利差却有所扩大，报告指出。</p>
</div><p>This divergence is occurring against a backdrop of regional tensions, including Iran’s retaliatory actions against military bases and oil/refinery facilities across the GCC, which also raise concerns about the safety of tanker traffic and, consequently, export routes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种分化发生在地区紧张局势的背景下，包括伊朗对 GCC 军事基地和石油/炼油设施的报复行动，这也引发了对油轮交通安全的担忧，从而影响出口路线。</p>
</div><p>The impact is not uniform across the GCC. Bahrain is the most credit-vulnerable due to a much weaker balance sheet and deteriorating fundamentals, contrasting sharply with Oman's improved position and return to investment-grade rating last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种影响在 GCC 内部并不均匀。由于资产负债表较弱和基本面恶化，巴林是最脆弱的信用国家，与阿曼的改善状况和去年恢复投资级评级形成鲜明对比。</p>
</div><p>Oman is the region's most openly neutral country, calling for de-escalation despite facing drone attacks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿曼是该地区最公开中立的国家，尽管面临无人机攻击，但仍呼吁降级。</p>
</div><p>It seems less reliant on the Strait of Hormuz for exports than Qatar, which depends heavily on the Strait for LNG, Wilson noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>威尔逊指出，与严重依赖霍尔木兹海出口液化天然气的卡塔尔相比，阿曼似乎对霍尔木兹海的出口依赖较小。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708372.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708372.png"/></p>
<p>Source: ING Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：ING 研究</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the UAE is facing significant economic consequences, primarily through disruptions to its key sectors: tourism, travel, and transit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，阿联酋面临重大经济后果，主要通过对其关键行业的干扰：旅游、旅行和过境。</p>
</div><p>These challenges are compounded by a difficult period for its hard currency bonds, stemming from the nation's removal from JP Morgan's EMBI bond indices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些挑战因该国被移出摩根大通的 EMBI 债券指数而加剧，导致其硬币债券面临困难时期。</p>
</div><p>This removal, however, is essentially due to the UAE &#34;graduating&#34; from emerging market status.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这一移除基本上是由于阿联酋 “毕业” 出新兴市场地位。</p>
</div><p>The primary risk for Saudi Arabia is disruption to its energy infrastructure; however, the country is partially mitigated by the availability of potential alternative export routes through the Red Sea, Wilson noted</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沙特阿拉伯的主要风险是其能源基础设施的干扰；然而，威尔逊指出，该国部分缓解了这一风险，因为通过红海有潜在的替代出口路线。</p>
</div><h2>Risk-off sentiment could reverse EM mood improvement</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>风险规避情绪可能逆转新兴市场情绪改善</h2>
</div><p>Globally, the strong dollar, higher yields, and risk-off sentiment are challenging EM credit markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球范围内，强势美元、更高收益率和风险规避情绪正在挑战新兴市场信用市场。</p>
</div><p>While the impact depends on the military action's length and severity, these developments follow a year of improved investor sentiment toward EM.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管影响取决于军事行动的持续时间和严重性，但这些发展发生在去年新兴市场投资者情绪改善的一年之后。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708417.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708417.png"/></p>
<p>Source: ING Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：ING 研究</p>
</div><p>“We have seen broad-based inflows into EM assets since ‘Liberation Day’ last year, including strong portfolios generally into EM debt across regions to start the year,” Wilson added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“自去年 ‘解放日’ 以来，我们已经看到新兴市场资产的广泛流入，包括在年初各地区新兴市场债务中的强劲投资组合，” 威尔逊补充道。</p>
</div><p>The strong momentum in primary issuance has understandably slowed recently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>初级发行的强劲势头最近显然放缓。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, a more lasting reversal of these inflows into EM remains a risk, particularly if the initial positive consensus surrounding the asset class seen at the start of the year shifts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，如果年初对该资产类别的初步积极共识发生变化，流入新兴市场的更持久逆转仍然是一个风险。</p>
</div><p>The broad tightening for EM credit has driven spread levels near all-time lows, significantly tighter than long-term averages across all rating categories before the latest volatility, according to the report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告指出，新兴市场信用的广泛收紧使利差水平接近历史低点，显著低于最新波动之前所有评级类别的长期平均水平。</p>
</div><p>Although the recent sell-off has been relatively orderly, it is only a minor fluctuation in the long-term outlook, according to Wilson.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管最近的抛售相对有序，但根据威尔逊的说法，这只是长期前景中的小幅波动。</p>
</div><p>Should the conflict escalate and global disruption continue, we anticipate a wider decompression of spreads from current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果冲突升级且全球干扰持续，我们预计利差将从当前水平进一步扩大。</p>
</div><p>Specifically, single-B spreads on higher-beta, frontier names could face significant risk, he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>具体而言，较高贝塔值的前沿名称的单 B 利差可能面临显著风险，他补充道。</p>
</div><p>The post Iran tensions, oil price spike rattle Emerging Market credit appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗紧张局势后，油价飙升动摇了新兴市场信用，首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

伊朗的紧张局势和油价的飙升扰乱了新兴市场的信贷