The company has defied a broader slowdown in the vaccine industry with its latest earnings report, after its flagship drug was cleared for use in a wider age group
<h4>Key Takeaways:</h4>
<ul>
<li>CanSino gets most of its revenue from meningitis shots and its earnings could come under pressure as rivals launch comparable drugs</li>
<li>With increased competition at home, the vaccine maker is targeting markets in Southeast Asia and beyond</li>
</ul>
  
By Molly Wen
China’s vaccine industry has struggled to shake off persistent ailments over the past year. A falling birth rate has shrunk the market for childhood inoculations while price wars have broken out for flu shots and other common vaccines.
Makers of the protective serums have been left with stunted earnings, and even heavy losses, but CanSino Biologics Inc. (688185.SH; 6185.HK) stood out at the end of February when it issued a more positive report card.
The company, which stepped into the spotlight a few years ago with a Covid vaccine, reported steady revenue growth in 2025 and a return to the black, albeit with the help of state subsidies, in a preliminary earnings summary.
CanSino said its annual revenue rose 26% to nearly 1.07 billion yuan ($154 million) in 2025, while the firm’s bottom line swung from a net loss of 379 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 27.87 million yuan.
However, the picture was less rosy at the core level, as the return to profit was driven by non-recurring gains such as government subsidies. After deducting those items, the company managed to narrow its losses from a yawning deficit of 441 million yuan but was still 92.50 million yuan in the red.
Rising sales of the meningitis vaccine MCV4, sold under the brand name Menhycia, were the engine behind CanSino’s improved results. Launched in 2021, the flagship product is China’s only approved quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate to have reached the market, promising better protection against the virus for infants as young as three months old.
The potential market for the vaccine expanded last month when China’s drug regulators approved plans to lift the upper age limit for the vaccine from three years to six years.
The move on Feb. 24 boosted CanSino’s Shanghai share price after the Lunar New Year holiday, when the stock climbed 12.6% over four straight sessions. The reaction from Hong Kong investors was more muted, with the company’s shares advancing 4.7% over the same timeframe.
One cause for caution is CanSino’s heavy reliance on meningitis shots. In the first half of 2025, revenue growth almost entirely derived from Menhycia and another meningococcal vaccine, Meinaixi (MCV2), which generated 364 million yuan or 97% of total turnover.
Other income streams barely amounted to a trickle. The company’s Covid vaccine brought in just 10.41 million yuan in the first half, about 2.7% of overall revenue. Meanwhile, a development deal signed with AstraZeneca in 2023 for work on mRNA vaccines no longer contributed any revenue in the first half of 2025.
This concentrated model is risky, leaving CanSino’s earnings base vulnerable to competitive challenges. Menhycia’s monopoly looks set to be broken as similar vaccines start to land on the market.In May last year Zhifei Biological (300122.SZ) secured approval to register its quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine, while Phase Three trials of a comparable product from Walvax Biotechnology (300142.SZ) are well underway.
Once it faces rival products, CanSino may struggle to sustain its 79.3% gross margin. Any market fluctuation or profit erosion affecting its core product will have an amplified impact on overall earnings and could reverse the profit turnaround.
<h4>Fewer births, smaller market</h4>
Demographic warning signs are also flashing. The number of newborns in China fell to just 7.92 million last year, 1.62 million fewer than in 2024, squeezing demand for pediatric vaccines. At the same time, fierce price wars are waging for established products such as HPV vaccines and influenza shots, pushing the industry broadly into the red. Zhifei Biological is predicting a loss for 2025 ranging from around 10.70 billion yuan to 13.73 billion yuan, while Wantai BioPharm and Baike Biotechnology have projected net losses of up to 410 million yuan and 272 million yuan respectively.
When domestic markets are problematic, Chinese companies tend to look overseas for buyers. CanSino has already targeted Southeast Asia and has plans to penetrate the Middle East, South America and North Africa.
The company started to ship Menhycia to Indonesia in September 2025, marking another overseas launch of a novel drug after its Covid vaccine. It has also begun a Phase One trial in Indonesia for its inhaled tuberculosis vaccine and is collaborating with Malaysian partners to develop an mRNA multivalent flu vaccine.
Another growth engine could be powering up with the launch of a new CanSino vaccine. Prevnarxin (PCV13i), a vaccine against bacterial infections such as pneumonia, officially went on sale in China last September. The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine adopts a dual-carrier model using CRM197 and tetanus toxoid to teach the immune system to withstand infection.
Currently, the company’s price-to-book ratio stands at around 1.53 times, against 1.36 times for industry leader Zhifei Biological, indicating that a higher growth premium is being assigned to CanSino’s product pipeline.
In the short term, investors should pay close attention to sales of meningitis vaccines and the rollout of Prevnarxin, along with cost controls, to determine whether the company can achieve a definitive net profit without any extra uplift.
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康希诺

The company has defied a broader slowdown in the vaccine industry with its latest earnings report, after its flagship drug was cleared for use in a wider age group
Key Takeaways:

CanSino gets most of its revenue from meningitis shots and its earnings could come under pressure as rivals launch comparable drugs
With increased competition at home, the vaccine maker is targeting markets in Southeast Asia and beyond

  
By Molly Wen
China’s vaccine industry has struggled to shake off persistent ailm

Meningitis shot delivers dose of good cheer for CanSino