<div id="readability-page-1" class="page"><div id="parent_top_div"><h2>  Nifty outlook as Oil surpasses $100/barrel-mark</h2> <p><small> </small>  Brent crude price's march past the $100 a barrel-mark may have opened the doors for another 10 per cent correction in the Nifty50 index, believe analysts at ICICI Securities.</p> <p>  An analysis of historical episodes of a surge in crude oil prices showed that a sustained spike in Brent crude futures beyond the $100-mark triggers a negative correlation with the benchmark index, weighing on market sentiment.</p> <p>  &#34;Crude oil price, at this juncture, is encapsulating the 'sum of all fears' arising out of the significant escalation of the conflict in the Gulf region. A sharp rise in crude oil above the $100 per barrel-mark would mean that markets are discounting severe oil supply disruption for a longer period of time,&#34; ICICI Securities said.</p> <p>  In such an environment, Nifty50 index could potentially drop by approximately 10 per cent from the pre-conflict-day level of 25,178. This implies a downside level of 22,660.</p> <p>  On Monday, Brent crude futures leaped over 25 per cent intraday to hit a high of $116.7 per barrel-mark in the international markets, after major West Asia oil producers cut output amid closure of Strait of Hormuz (SoH) due to the Iran war.</p> <p>  This is the first time since the Russia-Ukraine war (in 2022) that oil prices have topped the psychological mark of $100.</p> <p>  By noon, oil prices were mildly off highs at $110/barrel. Notably, Gulf producers are cutting back on oil production as barrels are piling up due to the closure of the SoH, leading to a lack of storage space.</p> <p>  Over the weekend, Kuwait, the fifth-biggest producer in Opec, announced precautionary cuts to its oil production and refinery output, while Iraq, the second-biggest OPEC producer, has trimmed production from its three main southern oilfields by 70 per cent to 1.3 million barrels per day.</p> <p>  The United Arab Emirates, the third-biggest producer in Opec, too, said it was &#34;carefully managing offshore production levels to address storage requirements&#34;.</p> <h3>  Why rising crude oil prices halt Nifty rally?</h3> <p>  Rising crude oil prices negatively affect equity markets due to their broad impact on inflation, corporate profitability, and external balances.</p> <p>  For India, which imports nearly 80-85 per cent of its oil requirements – 50 per cent of which comes via the Strait of Hormuz -- a sharp rise in crude oil price leads to higher fuel costs, wider trade deficits, and pressure on economic growth.</p> <h3>  Oil tops $100/barrel: How much can Nifty fall?</h3> <p>  In the worst-case scenario, ICICI Securities said that the Nifty 50 could decline about 10 per cent from its pre-conflict level of around 25,178, while market valuations could compress with the index's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to around 18x, closer to post-pandemic lows. Currently, Nifty50's P/X stood at 21.4 x as of March 6, 2026.</p> <p>  &#34;The earnings yield could rise to ~5.6 per cent (highest in the post-Covid era), while the relative spread of bond yield over earnings yield could dip to around 100bps; thereby, increasing the relative attractiveness of equities over bonds (assuming bond yields do not spike),&#34; the brokerage said.</p> <p>  Market-cap to GDP ratio (m-cap/GDP ratio) – widely known as the Buffett Indicator of valuation -- could drift closer to 110 per cent as the drawdown in mid and smallcap stocks could be higher, it said.</p> <p>  A Buffett Indicator above 100 per cent is still an indication of an &#34;overvalued&#34; market.</p> <h3>  Impact of higher crude oil prices on Indian economy</h3> <p>  A sustained spike in crude, ICICI Securities noted, would have broader macroeconomic consequences. India's net oil import bill stood at around $122 billion in the previous financial year (FY250, equivalent to about 3.1 per cent of the GDP.</p> <p>  A 10-per cent rise in crude oil prices could raise the import bill by about $12 billion or 0.3 per cent of GDP, potentially widening the current account deficit and putting pressure on the balance of payments.</p> <p>  &#34;Rising crude prices could also push up inflation because fuel components such as petrol, diesel and LPG have a higher weight in the consumer price index. </p> <p>  Elevated inflation, in turn, may affect demand and corporate earnings as companies face higher fuel and raw material costs,&#34; the brokerage said.</p> <h3>  Sectors to avoid right now</h3> <p>  In this backdrop, the brokerage said that industries such as automobiles, aviation, oil marketing companies, city gas distribution firms, building materials, industrials, and consumer companies could see margin pressure in the near-term.</p> <p>  Export-oriented sectors with exposure to the Gulf region, including financials and real estate, may also face additional risks if the geopolitical situation worsens, it said.</p> <p>  That said, sharp spikes in oil prices may create volatility but could also offer opportunities.</p> <p>&#34;Temporary spikes in crude oil prices have created buying opportunities in the past.  Last instance of the negative correlation of crude prices and Nifty was witnessed in 2022. The resulting volatility created the foundation for the big equity rally seen over CY23,&#34; it said.<small> </small> <small> </small> <em><strong>==============<small> </small>  Disclaimer: View and outlook shared belong to the respective brokerages/analysts and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers' discretion is advised.</strong></em></p> </div></div>

印度 Nifty 50 等权重 ETF - First Trust

<p>ICICI 证券分析师预测，布伦特原油价格超过每桶 100 美元可能导致 Nifty50 指数出现 10% 的修正，可能下跌至 22,660 点。油价上涨与海湾地区的地缘政治紧张局势有关，影响市场情绪和企业盈利能力。油价的持续上涨可能会扩大印度的经常账户赤字并提高通货膨胀，影响汽车和航空等行业。尽管可能会出现波动，过去的趋势表明，油价的剧烈上涨可能会在市场中创造买入机会</p>

Oil above $100 may trigger 10% Nifty correction, drag P/E to 18x: ICICI Sec

Business Standard

Morgan Stanley India Inv Fd

Nippon Life Insurance Co.

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

能源业 ETF - SPDR

美国布伦特原油期货基金

Nomura Holdings, Inc.

油气服务 ETF - Market Vectors

Xtrackers Nifty 500 India ETF

标普全球能源股指数 ETF - iShares

WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil

ICICI 证券指出，油价若超过 100 美元，可能导致 Nifty 指数下跌 10%，并将市盈率降至 18 倍