<h2>关键要点</h2>
<ul>
<li>小盘股多年来一直受到负收益增长的困扰。这导致其相对于标普 500 的表现显著不佳。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>标普 600 的收益增长在 2025 年终于转为正值，并预计在 2026 年加速增长。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>如果收益增长率如当前预测那样实现，可能会释放小盘股中积累的巨大价值。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>我们更看好的 10 只股票超过 iShares Core S&amp;P Small-Cap ETF ›</li>
</ul>
<p>不言而喻，巨型科技股在过去几年一直是美国股票市场的主导策略。小盘股常被宣传为多样化投资和具有超额回报潜力的股票，自 2021 年以来一直表现不佳。它们最后一次相对于 <strong>标普 500</strong>(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) 达到高峰大约是在十年前。图表展示了这一点，使用了跟踪标普 600 的 <strong>iShares Core S&amp;P Small Cap ETF</strong>(NYSEMKT: IJR) 和 <strong>iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF</strong>(NYSEMKT: IVV)。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vbWVkaWEueWNoYXJ0cy5jb20vY2hhcnRzL2MxZDFkNGEyYTQwYjZiMDhjNTVkNzBjNDM2MGM1NmRiLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vbWVkaWEueWNoYXJ0cy5jb20vY2hhcnRzL2MxZDFkNGEyYTQwYjZiMDhjNTVkNzBjNDM2MGM1NmRiLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p><em><strong>人工智能会创造出世界上第一个万亿富翁吗？</strong> 我们的团队刚刚发布了一份关于一家鲜为人知的公司的报告，该公司被称为 “不可或缺的垄断”，提供 Nvidia 和 Intel 都需要的关键技术。<strong>继续 »</strong></em></p>
<p>基本图表数据由 YCharts 提供</p>
<p>这一趋势的核心驱动因素之一是收益增长。如果标普 500 在 2026 年第一季度能实现当前预测的 11% 收益增长，这将标志着连续第 11 个季度的同比正收益增长，以及连续第六个季度的两位数收益增长。</p>
<p>然而，<strong>标普 600 小盘股指数</strong> 却处于光谱的另一端。从 2023 年第一季度到 2024 年第二季度，它连续六个季度的同比收益增长均为-10% 或更差。它在 2025 年第二季度才刚刚再次转为正值。</p>
<p>但小盘股的势头可能才刚刚开始增强。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2MDQwMC9nZXR0eWltYWdlcy0xMjgzMzQyNzU4LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2MDQwMC9nZXR0eWltYWdlcy0xMjgzMzQyNzU4LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>小盘股即将超越大盘股的收益增长</h2>
<p>如果标普 600 能够实现当前预测，它将在今年第四季度产生 29% 的同比收益增长。<strong>纳斯达克 100</strong>，作为巨型科技股的基准，预计在同一时期将产生 28% 的收益增长。</p>
<p>换句话说，小盘股的收益增长可能很快开始超越科技行业。</p>
<p>这很重要，因为小盘股的表现和估值一直是低于预期的收益的结果。跟踪标普 600 的 iShares Core S&amp;P Small Cap ETF 的市盈率 (P/E) 为 18，而 iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF 的市盈率为 28。</p>
<p>当标普 500 实现如此更好的收益增长时，这种估值差距是可以理解的。但当收益增长率相似时，估值差距应该更小。小盘股的市盈率在过去几年略有上升，但相对于标普 500 的折扣仍然没有太大变化。考虑到未来的收益增长预期，它显然没有重新定价到应有的水平。</p>
<p>我不认为大盘股和小盘股会在短期内交易于相似的市盈率。但我也相信，标普 600 中还有一部分价值尚未被释放。一旦释放，我认为我们很可能会看到小盘股相对于大盘股的持续超额表现。</p>
<p>在接下来的几年里，我认为小盘股在美国股票类别中是更好的选择。</p>
<h2>你现在应该购买 iShares Core S&amp;P Small-Cap ETF 的股票吗？</h2>
<p>在你购买 iShares Core S&amp;P Small-Cap ETF 的股票之前，请考虑以下几点：</p>
<p>_Motley Fool Stock Advisor_分析团队刚刚确定了他们认为现在投资者应该购买的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong>……而 iShares Core S&amp;P Small-Cap ETF 并不在其中。这 10 只入选股票在未来几年可能会产生巨额回报。</p>
<p>考虑一下 <strong>Netflix</strong> 在 2004 年 12 月 17 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1000 美元，<strong>你将拥有 513,407 美元</strong>！* 或者 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1000 美元，<strong>你将拥有 1,123,237 美元</strong>！*</p>
<p>现在，值得注意的是，<em>Stock Advisor_的总平均回报率为 938%——相比之下，标普 500 的回报率为 188%，表现出色。** 不要错过最新的前 10 名单，加入由个人投资者为个人投资者建立的投资社区，获取_Stock Advisor</em>。**</p>
<p><strong>查看这 10 只股票 »</strong></p>
<p><em>*Stock Advisor 的回报截至 2026 年 3 月 18 日。</em></p>
<p><em>David Dierking 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。Motley Fool 持有并推荐 iShares Core S&amp;P Small-Cap ETF。Motley Fool 有披露政策。</em></p>
<p>此处表达的观点和意见是作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点。</p>

美国小盘价值股 ETF - Vanguard

标普 600 小盘价值股 ETF - SPDR

SCOW

标普 600 小盘价值股 ETF - iShares

标普 600 小盘成长股 ETF - Vanguard

标普 600 小盘成长股 - iShares

美国小盘价值股 ETF - Avantis

ESIX

标普小盘股 ETF - iShares

标普 600 小盘价值股 ETF - Vanguard

<p>标普 600 小盘股指数有望迎来显著反弹，因为盈利增长在多年后首次转为正值，预测显示 2026 年第四季度同比增长 29%。这与标普 500 预计的 11% 增长形成对比，暗示着表现动态可能发生转变。小盘股与大盘股之间的估值差距仍然较大，但随着盈利增长的趋同，小盘股可能释放出可观的价值，从而在未来几年内在美国股市中实现超越表现</p>

<h2>Key Points</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关键要点</h2>
</div><ul>
<li>Small caps have been plagued by negative earnings growth for years. That has led to significant underperformance relative to the S&amp;P 500.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>小盘股多年来一直受到负收益增长的困扰。这导致其相对于标普 500 的表现显著不佳。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>S&amp;P 600 earnings growth finally turned positive in 2025 and is expected to accelerate in 2026.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>标普 600 的收益增长在 2025 年终于转为正值，并预计在 2026 年加速增长。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>If earnings growth rates deliver as currently forecast, it could unlock a lot of built-up value in small-cap stocks.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>如果收益增长率如当前预测那样实现，可能会释放小盘股中积累的巨大价值。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>10 stocks we like better than iShares Core S&amp;P Small-Cap ETF ›</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>我们更看好的 10 只股票超过 iShares Core S&amp;P Small-Cap ETF ›</li>
</ul>
</div><p>It goes without saying that megacap tech has been the dominant U.S. equity strategy for the past several years. Small caps, often touted as diversifiers and stocks with above-average return potential, have been consistent laggards since 2021. They last peaked relative to the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) about a decade ago. The chart demonstrates this, using the <strong>iShares Core S&amp;P Small Cap ETF</strong>(NYSEMKT: IJR), which tracks the S&amp;P 600, and the <strong>iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF</strong>(NYSEMKT: IVV).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不言而喻，巨型科技股在过去几年一直是美国股票市场的主导策略。小盘股常被宣传为多样化投资和具有超额回报潜力的股票，自 2021 年以来一直表现不佳。它们最后一次相对于 <strong>标普 500</strong>(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) 达到高峰大约是在十年前。图表展示了这一点，使用了跟踪标普 600 的 <strong>iShares Core S&amp;P Small Cap ETF</strong>(NYSEMKT: IJR) 和 <strong>iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF</strong>(NYSEMKT: IVV)。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vbWVkaWEueWNoYXJ0cy5jb20vY2hhcnRzL2MxZDFkNGEyYTQwYjZiMDhjNTVkNzBjNDM2MGM1NmRiLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.ycharts.com%2Fcharts%2Fc1d1d4a2a40b6b08c55d70c4360c56db.png&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p><em><strong>Will AI create the world's first trillionaire?</strong> Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an &#34;Indispensable Monopoly&#34; providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. <strong>Continue »</strong></em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><strong>人工智能会创造出世界上第一个万亿富翁吗？</strong> 我们的团队刚刚发布了一份关于一家鲜为人知的公司的报告，该公司被称为 “不可或缺的垄断”，提供 Nvidia 和 Intel 都需要的关键技术。<strong>继续 »</strong></em></p>
</div><p>Fundamental Chart data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基本图表数据由 YCharts 提供</p>
</div><p>One of the core drivers of this trend has been earnings growth. If the S&amp;P 500 were to deliver on its current forecast of 11% earnings growth in the first quarter of 2026, it would mark the 11th consecutive quarter of positive year-over-year earnings growth and the sixth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一趋势的核心驱动因素之一是收益增长。如果标普 500 在 2026 年第一季度能实现当前预测的 11% 收益增长，这将标志着连续第 11 个季度的同比正收益增长，以及连续第六个季度的两位数收益增长。</p>
</div><p>The <strong>S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Index</strong>, however, has been on the opposite end of the spectrum. From Q1 2023 to Q2 2024, it produced year-over-year earnings growth of -10% or worse in six straight quarters. It only just turned positive again in Q2 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，<strong>标普 600 小盘股指数</strong> 却处于光谱的另一端。从 2023 年第一季度到 2024 年第二季度，它连续六个季度的同比收益增长均为-10% 或更差。它在 2025 年第二季度才刚刚再次转为正值。</p>
</div><p>But the momentum may only be starting to pick up for small caps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但小盘股的势头可能才刚刚开始增强。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2MDQwMC9nZXR0eWltYWdlcy0xMjgzMzQyNzU4LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F860400%2Fgettyimages-1283342758.jpg&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Small caps are about to outpace large caps in earnings growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>小盘股即将超越大盘股的收益增长</h2>
</div><p>If the S&amp;P 600 can deliver on current forecasts, it will generate 29% year-over-year earnings growth in the fourth quarter of this year. The <strong>Nasdaq-100</strong>, the benchmark for megacap tech, is expected to produce 28% earnings growth over the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果标普 600 能够实现当前预测，它将在今年第四季度产生 29% 的同比收益增长。<strong>纳斯达克 100</strong>，作为巨型科技股的基准，预计在同一时期将产生 28% 的收益增长。</p>
</div><p>In other words, small-cap earnings growth could soon begin to outpace that of the tech sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，小盘股的收益增长可能很快开始超越科技行业。</p>
</div><p>That's important because small-cap performance and valuations have been a product of subpar earnings. The iShares Core S&amp;P Small Cap ETF, which tracks the S&amp;P 600, trades at a price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 18. The iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF trades at a P/E ratio of 28.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这很重要，因为小盘股的表现和估值一直是低于预期的收益的结果。跟踪标普 600 的 iShares Core S&amp;P Small Cap ETF 的市盈率 (P/E) 为 18，而 iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF 的市盈率为 28。</p>
</div><p>That kind of valuation gap is understandable when the S&amp;P 500 is delivering such better earnings growth. But when earnings growth rates are similar, the valuation gap should be much tighter. The P/E ratio on small caps has moved modestly higher over the past few years, but the discount relative to the S&amp;P 500 still hasn't budged much. It certainly hasn't repriced to the level it should, given forward earnings growth expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当标普 500 实现如此更好的收益增长时，这种估值差距是可以理解的。但当收益增长率相似时，估值差距应该更小。小盘股的市盈率在过去几年略有上升，但相对于标普 500 的折扣仍然没有太大变化。考虑到未来的收益增长预期，它显然没有重新定价到应有的水平。</p>
</div><p>I wouldn't expect large caps and small caps to be trading at similar P/E ratios anytime soon. But I also believe there's a level of value in the S&amp;P 600 that hasn't been unlocked yet. Once it does, I think there's a good chance we see an extended stretch of outperformance for small caps relative to large caps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不认为大盘股和小盘股会在短期内交易于相似的市盈率。但我也相信，标普 600 中还有一部分价值尚未被释放。一旦释放，我认为我们很可能会看到小盘股相对于大盘股的持续超额表现。</p>
</div><p>Over the next couple of years, I think small caps are the better bet in the U.S. equity category.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在接下来的几年里，我认为小盘股在美国股票类别中是更好的选择。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy stock in iShares Core S&amp;P Small-Cap ETF right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该购买 iShares Core S&amp;P Small-Cap ETF 的股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you buy stock in iShares Core S&amp;P Small-Cap ETF, consider this:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在你购买 iShares Core S&amp;P Small-Cap ETF 的股票之前，请考虑以下几点：</p>
</div><p>The <em>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</em> analyst team just identified what they believe are the <strong>10 best stocks</strong> for investors to buy now… and iShares Core S&amp;P Small-Cap ETF wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>_Motley Fool Stock Advisor_分析团队刚刚确定了他们认为现在投资者应该购买的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong>……而 iShares Core S&amp;P Small-Cap ETF 并不在其中。这 10 只入选股票在未来几年可能会产生巨额回报。</p>
</div><p>Consider when <strong>Netflix</strong> made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, <strong>you’d have $513,407</strong>!* Or when <strong>Nvidia</strong> made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, <strong>you’d have $1,123,237</strong>!*</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑一下 <strong>Netflix</strong> 在 2004 年 12 月 17 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1000 美元，<strong>你将拥有 513,407 美元</strong>！* 或者 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1000 美元，<strong>你将拥有 1,123,237 美元</strong>！*</p>
</div><p>Now, it’s worth noting <em>Stock Advisor’s</em> total average return is 938% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 188% for the S&amp;P 500. <strong>Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with <em>Stock Advisor</em>, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，值得注意的是，<em>Stock Advisor_的总平均回报率为 938%——相比之下，标普 500 的回报率为 188%，表现出色。** 不要错过最新的前 10 名单，加入由个人投资者为个人投资者建立的投资社区，获取_Stock Advisor</em>。**</p>
</div><p><strong>See the 10 stocks »</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看这 10 只股票 »</strong></p>
</div><p><em>*Stock Advisor returns as of March 18, 2026.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>*Stock Advisor 的回报截至 2026 年 3 月 18 日。</em></p>
</div><p><em>David Dierking has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends iShares Core S&amp;P Small-Cap ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>David Dierking 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。Motley Fool 持有并推荐 iShares Core S&amp;P Small-Cap ETF。Motley Fool 有披露政策。</em></p>
</div><p>The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此处表达的观点和意见是作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点。</p>
</div>

The S&P 600 Is About to Do This for the First Time in Years. It Could Lead to a Huge Rally for Small Caps.

nasdaq

Pacer S&P SmCp 600 Qul FCF Aristcrts ETF

SPDR S&P SmallCap 600 ESG ETF

标普 600 指数即将多年内首次采取这一行动。这可能会引发小盘股的大幅上涨