<ul>
<li>日本央行维持利率在 0.75%，紧缩偏向依然存在</li>
<li>高田独 dissent，田村与大多数保持一致</li>
<li>日本国债收益率因财政和能源担忧而上升</li>
<li>片山加大干预言辞，但日元几乎没有反应</li>
<li>美元/日元紧握关键支撑，下行风险加大</li>
</ul>
<h2>日本央行维持利率，仅有一人反对</h2>
<p>日本央行在三月份维持利率不变，符合预期，保持隔夜利率在 0.75%，该决定以 8-1 的投票通过。</p>
<p>高田再次表示反对，称通胀实际上已达到目标，并警告进口成本上升意味着央行应该已经提高利率。</p>
<p>但更大的故事可能是没有人反对。去年 11 月，高田和田村都推动在 12 月加息之前采取更紧缩的政策。这一次，田村与大多数保持一致，留下高田独自一人。对交易者来说，这很重要，这表明内部对再次加息的推动力没有上次那么强。</p>
<p>在前景方面，央行指出中东局势和原油价格上涨是一个关键风险。信息相当简单，如果能源价格持续上涨，将直接推动日本的通胀，尤其是在日元贬值仍在抬高进口成本的情况下。</p>
<p>它还表示，由于政府的能源支持，通胀在短期内可能会降至 2% 以下，但这并不是重要的趋势。央行仍然预计基础通胀将回升，受到油价上涨和工资持续上涨的推动。</p>
<p>增长，按照它的话说，是适度的。没有出现大幅回落，但也没有过热。尽管价格上涨，消费者仍在消费，企业在投资，但房地产市场疲软，全球需求不均。金融条件依然宽松，这意味着它认为政策尚未收紧。</p>
<p>关于日元，虽然没有直接提及，但信号已经足够明确。央行表示将对金融和外汇市场的动态保持 “警惕”，以及这些动态如何影响通胀。对交易者来说，这意味着日本央行承认货币贬值和能源价格上涨是同一故事的一部分。</p>
<p>重要的是，央行没有改变其紧缩信号。它仍然认为实际利率，即经过通胀调整的名义利率，非常低，并表示如果前景保持不变，将继续加息。因此，方向没有改变，即使紧迫性也没有加大。</p>
<p>现在很多事情可能取决于行长植田和男在会议后期的语气，这应该会提供更清晰的指引，说明更广泛的委员会对利率前景的看法。</p>
<h2>四月加息略有偏好</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144338-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="682" height="697" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144338-1.png"/></p>
<p>来源：彭博社</p>
<p>市场定价反映了这一点。</p>
<p>四月加息的可能性仅略微偏好，约为 57%。在此之后，市场直到七月才完全定价下一次加息，基于掉期，年底前再次加息的可能性约为四分之三。</p>
<h2>日本国债因财政风险下滑</h2>
<p>即使日本央行维持紧缩偏向，对日本国债的压力也没有减轻。</p>
<p>正如周末所提到的，日本国债收益率曲线出现了熊市陡峭化，这一趋势在决定之前持续，收益率在各个到期日上升，长期债券的波动尤为明显。市场仍在推动更高的利率路径，即使日元未能作出反应。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144452-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1841" height="1123" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144452-2.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>这次的催化剂是能源价格的再次上涨。周三，因以色列和伊朗对海湾能源基础设施的攻击，原油和液化天然气期货上涨，进一步加大了日本利率市场的压力。</p>
<p>对日本来说，这是一个熟悉的问题。作为一个主要的能源进口国，价格上涨提升了通胀预期，同时也加剧了对依赖外部供应的经济体的能源安全担忧。</p>
<p>综合来看，仍然存在相同的因素。市场继续对政策制定者施加压力，同时对债券市场和日元施加压力，即使日本央行表示进一步加息仍在考虑之中。</p>
<h2>日元反应和干预风险</h2>
<p>在日本财政部长表示当局以 “极高的警惕” 关注市场，随时准备采取行动，并指出近期外汇波动部分是由投机驱动后，美元/日元在会话早些时候下跌。</p>
<p>片山的这种组合通常标志着言辞的升级，通常在干预前出现，帮助日元最初上涨。</p>
<p>但这一走势并没有持续。尽管言辞更强烈，日元在这两次言论和日本央行决定后仍然难以获得实质性支撑。这很有意思。即使干预式的语言开始渗入，市场并没有反应。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144533-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1835" height="1120" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144533-3.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>在本周早些时候跌破自二月份低点以来的趋势支撑后，美元/日元尽管最新小幅回调，但已重新夺回该水平，在植田的新闻发布会前停留在该水平上。对于交易者来说，这仍然是一个直接的关注点，158.90 是另一个支撑位，恰好低于该水平，与 3 月 9 日设定的高点相吻合。</p>
<p>如果突破这些水平，将为更深的回调打开道路，意味着趋势变化可能正在进行中，带来 157.88 和 50 日均线与 156.53 的水平交汇点等水平。如果由干预或财政部的利率检查引发，突破这些水平的可能性将很大。</p>
<p>在上方，该货币对仍然受到 160.23 的阻力限制，该水平之前标志着 2024 年日本央行的干预。考虑到我们所处的波动市场环境，这些阻力不应被过于重视，但振荡器发出的信号表明上行力量正在逐渐减弱。这并不是熊市投资者蜂拥而入的信号，但考虑到干预的威胁，这种变化是可以理解的。</p>

3040

2525

1499

1346

1357

3110

1369

<p>日本银行（BOJ）以 8 票对 1 票的结果维持隔夜利率在 0.75%，尽管有一票反对，仍然传达出收紧政策的倾向。由于政府支持，预计通胀将暂时降至 2% 以下，但基础通胀预计将因油价上涨而上升。日本银行对货币贬值和能源价格保持警惕，暗示未来可能加息。市场预期在 4 月加息的可能性较小，而 7 月的概率更强。尽管有干预的言辞，日元反应有限，美元/日元仍处于关键支撑水平</p>

<ul>
<li>BOJ holds rates at 0.75% with tightening bias intact</li>
<li>Takata the lone dissenter, Tamura stays with majority</li>
<li>JGB yields push higher on fiscal and energy concerns</li>
<li>Katayama ramps up intervention rhetoric, but yen barely reacts</li>
<li>USD/JPY clings to key support with downside risks building</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本央行维持利率在 0.75%，紧缩偏向依然存在</li>
<li>高田独 dissent，田村与大多数保持一致</li>
<li>日本国债收益率因财政和能源担忧而上升</li>
<li>片山加大干预言辞，但日元几乎没有反应</li>
<li>美元/日元紧握关键支撑，下行风险加大</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>BOJ holds with only one dissent</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日本央行维持利率，仅有一人反对</h2>
</div><p>The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged in March, as expected, keeping its overnight rate at 0.75% with the decision passed by an 8–1 vote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本央行在三月份维持利率不变，符合预期，保持隔夜利率在 0.75%，该决定以 8-1 的投票通过。</p>
</div><p>Hajime Takata dissented again, saying inflation is effectively at target and warning that rising import costs mean the Bank should already be running a higher rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高田再次表示反对，称通胀实际上已达到目标，并警告进口成本上升意味着央行应该已经提高利率。</p>
</div><p>But the bigger story may be who didn’t dissent. Back in November, both Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura pushed for tighter policy ahead of the December hike. This time, Tamura stayed with the majority, leaving Takata on his own. For traders, that matters, it suggests the internal push for another near-term hike isn’t as strong as it was last time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但更大的故事可能是没有人反对。去年 11 月，高田和田村都推动在 12 月加息之前采取更紧缩的政策。这一次，田村与大多数保持一致，留下高田独自一人。对交易者来说，这很重要，这表明内部对再次加息的推动力没有上次那么强。</p>
</div><p>On the outlook, the Bank pointed to the Middle East and rising crude oil prices as a key risk. The message is pretty simple, if energy keeps climbing, it feeds straight into inflation in Japan, especially with a weaker yen still lifting import costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在前景方面，央行指出中东局势和原油价格上涨是一个关键风险。信息相当简单，如果能源价格持续上涨，将直接推动日本的通胀，尤其是在日元贬值仍在抬高进口成本的情况下。</p>
</div><p>It also said inflation will likely dip below 2% in the near term due to government energy support, but that’s not the trend that matters. The Bank still expects underlying inflation to pick back up, helped by higher oil prices and wages continuing to firm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它还表示，由于政府的能源支持，通胀在短期内可能会降至 2% 以下，但这并不是重要的趋势。央行仍然预计基础通胀将回升，受到油价上涨和工资持续上涨的推动。</p>
</div><p>Growth, in its words, is moderate. Nothing rolling over, but nothing running hot either. Consumers are still spending despite higher prices, businesses are investing, but housing is soft and global demand is patchy. Financial conditions remain easy, meaning it doesn't think policy is restrictive yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>增长，按照它的话说，是适度的。没有出现大幅回落，但也没有过热。尽管价格上涨，消费者仍在消费，企业在投资，但房地产市场疲软，全球需求不均。金融条件依然宽松，这意味着它认为政策尚未收紧。</p>
</div><p>There wasn’t much said directly on the yen, but the signal was clear enough. The Bank said it will stay “vigilant” to financial and FX market moves and how they impact inflation. For traders, that’s the BOJ acknowledging that currency weakness and higher energy prices are part of the same story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于日元，虽然没有直接提及，但信号已经足够明确。央行表示将对金融和外汇市场的动态保持 “警惕”，以及这些动态如何影响通胀。对交易者来说，这意味着日本央行承认货币贬值和能源价格上涨是同一故事的一部分。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, the Bank didn’t shift its tightening signal. It still sees real rates, that is, nominal rates adjusted for inflation, as very low and said it will keep raising rates if the outlook holds. So the direction hasn’t changed, even if the urgency hasn’t picked up either.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，央行没有改变其紧缩信号。它仍然认为实际利率，即经过通胀调整的名义利率，非常低，并表示如果前景保持不变，将继续加息。因此，方向没有改变，即使紧迫性也没有加大。</p>
</div><p>A lot may now come down to the tone struck by Governor Kazuo Ueda later in the session, which should offer a clearer steer on how the broader Board is thinking about the rate outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在很多事情可能取决于行长植田和男在会议后期的语气，这应该会提供更清晰的指引，说明更广泛的委员会对利率前景的看法。</p>
</div><h2>April hike marginally favoured</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>四月加息略有偏好</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144338-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144338-1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Bloomberg</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：彭博社</p>
</div><p>Market pricing reflects that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场定价反映了这一点。</p>
</div><p>A move in April is only slightly favoured at around 57%. Beyond that, markets don’t fully price the next hike until July, with roughly a three-in-four chance of another move by year-end based on swaps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>四月加息的可能性仅略微偏好，约为 57%。在此之后，市场直到七月才完全定价下一次加息，基于掉期，年底前再次加息的可能性约为四分之三。</p>
</div><h2>JGBs slide on fiscal risks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日本国债因财政风险下滑</h2>
</div><p>Even with the BOJ maintaining a tightening bias, pressure on Japanese government bonds hasn’t eased.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使日本央行维持紧缩偏向，对日本国债的压力也没有减轻。</p>
</div><p>As flagged over the weekend, the JGB curve has been bear steepening, and that trend continued ahead of the decision, with yields rising across maturities, led by sharp moves in longer-dated tenors. Markets are still pushing for a higher rate path, even as the yen fails to respond.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如周末所提到的，日本国债收益率曲线出现了熊市陡峭化，这一趋势在决定之前持续，收益率在各个到期日上升，长期债券的波动尤为明显。市场仍在推动更高的利率路径，即使日元未能作出反应。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144452-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144452-2.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>The catalyst this time was another leg higher in energy prices. Crude and LNG futures rallied after attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf on Wednesday, first by Israel and then by Iran, adding to the pressure already building in Japan’s rates market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这次的催化剂是能源价格的再次上涨。周三，因以色列和伊朗对海湾能源基础设施的攻击，原油和液化天然气期货上涨，进一步加大了日本利率市场的压力。</p>
</div><p>For Japan, that’s a familiar problem. As a major energy importer, higher prices lift inflation expectations while also reinforcing concerns around energy security for an economy heavily reliant on external supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对日本来说，这是一个熟悉的问题。作为一个主要的能源进口国，价格上涨提升了通胀预期，同时也加剧了对依赖外部供应的经济体的能源安全担忧。</p>
</div><p>Put it together, and the same factors remain in play. Markets continue to test policymakers, leaning against both the bond market and the yen at the same time, even as the BOJ signals that further rate hikes are still on the table.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合来看，仍然存在相同的因素。市场继续对政策制定者施加压力，同时对债券市场和日元施加压力，即使日本央行表示进一步加息仍在考虑之中。</p>
</div><h2>Yen reaction and intervention risk</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日元反应和干预风险</h2>
</div><p>USD/JPY had fallen earlier in the session following comments from Japan’s finance minister who said authorities were watching markets with an “extremely high level of vigilance”, were prepared to act at any time, and flagged that recent FX moves had been driven partly by speculation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在日本财政部长表示当局以 “极高的警惕” 关注市场，随时准备采取行动，并指出近期外汇波动部分是由投机驱动后，美元/日元在会话早些时候下跌。</p>
</div><p>That combination from Katayama typically marks an escalation in rhetoric and is often seen just ahead of intervention, helping to lift the yen initially.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>片山的这种组合通常标志着言辞的升级，通常在干预前出现，帮助日元最初上涨。</p>
</div><p>But the move didn’t last. Despite the stronger language, the yen has struggled to gain any real traction following both those remarks and the BOJ decision. That’s telling. Even with intervention-style language starting to creep in, the market isn’t biting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这一走势并没有持续。尽管言辞更强烈，日元在这两次言论和日本央行决定后仍然难以获得实质性支撑。这很有意思。即使干预式的语言开始渗入，市场并没有反应。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144533-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144533-3.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>After breaking beneath trend support dating back to the February lows earlier this week, USD/JPY has reclaimed the level despite the latest modest pullback, resting upon it ahead of Ueda’s presser. It remains the immediate focal point for traders, with 158.90 another support level just below, coinciding with the high set on March 9.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在本周早些时候跌破自二月份低点以来的趋势支撑后，美元/日元尽管最新小幅回调，但已重新夺回该水平，在植田的新闻发布会前停留在该水平上。对于交易者来说，这仍然是一个直接的关注点，158.90 是另一个支撑位，恰好低于该水平，与 3 月 9 日设定的高点相吻合。</p>
</div><p>A clean break of those levels would open the path for a deeper flush, implying a trend change may be underway, bringing levels such as 157.88 and the intersection of the 50DMA and horizontal support at 156.53 into play. If sparked by intervention or a rate check from the MoF, a move through those levels would be likely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果突破这些水平，将为更深的回调打开道路，意味着趋势变化可能正在进行中，带来 157.88 和 50 日均线与 156.53 的水平交汇点等水平。如果由干预或财政部的利率检查引发，突破这些水平的可能性将很大。</p>
</div><p>On the topside, the pair remains capped beneath resistance at 160.23, a level that previously marked BOJ intervention in 2024. Less weight should be placed on them given the volatile market regime we find ourselves in, but the message from the oscillators points to gradually waning upside strength. Not a signal for bears to pile in, but an understandable shift given the threat of intervention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上方，该货币对仍然受到 160.23 的阻力限制，该水平之前标志着 2024 年日本央行的干预。考虑到我们所处的波动市场环境，这些阻力不应被过于重视，但振荡器发出的信号表明上行力量正在逐渐减弱。这并不是熊市投资者蜂拥而入的信号，但考虑到干预的威胁，这种变化是可以理解的。</p>
</div>

USD/JPY Forecast: Yen shrugs off jawboning as pressure builds on BOJ

Forex

Soliton Systems K.K.

Japan Agricultural Cooperatives Group

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.

Nomura Holdings, Inc.

Nitto Boseki Co., Ltd.

Asset Management One Co., Ltd.

美元/日元预测：尽管对日本央行的压力加大，日元对口头干预置之不理