<p>总统 <strong>唐纳德·特朗普</strong> 已经花了几个月的时间积极推动美联储主席 <strong>杰罗姆·鲍威尔</strong> 降息。但在伊朗战争爆发 21 天后——没有结束的迹象——债券市场开始发出特朗普从未预料到的信号。</p>
<p>加息。</p>
<p>短期利率期货现在正在定价美联储在年底前加息的可能性。不到三周前，市场预计会有 60 个基点的降息。</p>
<p>伊朗战争不仅逆转了这一假设——而且彻底翻转了它。</p>
<h2>美国 2 年期国债收益率创两年多以来最大涨幅：这意味着什么</h2>
<p>周四，2 年期国债收益率飙升 12 个基点至 3.92%，创下自 2025 年 4 月以来的最大单日涨幅。</p>
<p>这一变动标志着强劲的重新定价。从月度来看，2 年期收益率上升了 54 个基点——这是自 2023 年 2 月以来的最大增幅，当时美联储正处于四十年来最激进的紧缩周期中。</p>
<p>作为短期利率预期的关键指标，2 年期收益率现在发出市场定价转变的信号——投资者越来越多地考虑到再次加息的风险。</p>
<p>当加息成为基本情况时，利率敏感型股票——如 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust</strong>——往往会受到严重压力，就像它们在 2022 年紧缩周期中所经历的那样。</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/20102038/image-472-1024x568.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/20102038/image-472-1024x568.png"/></p>
</figure><h2>三周前没人预料到的加息概率</h2>
<p>Polymarket 的 2026 年美联储加息市场概率已跃升至 24%。在战争开始之前，加息的概率低至 6%。</p>
<p>CME FedWatch 工具现在显示到十月至少有一次加息的概率为 40%。短期利率期货实际上已经排除了今年剩余的所有宽松。</p>
<p>重新定价的速度与方向同样引人注目。在三月初，美联储预计将在 2026 年进行两到三次降息。</p>
<p>这一共识在不到三周的时间里被一个单一变量打破：原油价格。</p>
<h2>美国银行设定美联储加息的实际条件</h2>
<p>美国银行经济学家 <strong>阿迪提亚·巴哈夫</strong> 周四发布了一份报告，列出了美联储在认真考虑加息之前需要看到的三个条件。</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>劳动力市场稳定性：</strong> 在 2022 年，美联储在技术性衰退期间加息，因为失业率低于 4% 并且持续下降。适度的就业增长、稳定的失业救济申请和稳定的职位空缺率将支持这一论点。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>核心通胀突破 3.2%：</strong> WTI 上涨 10% 大约会在一段时间内使核心通胀增加 7 个基点。如果伊朗冲击扩展到航运、天然气、化肥和铝——类似于 2021-22 年的供应中断——3.2% 是可以达到的。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>鲍威尔仍在掌舵：</strong> 美联储提名人 <strong>凯文·沃什</strong> 尚未获得确认。美国银行认为鲍威尔是一个温和的鸽派，如果风险平衡，他会优先考虑劳动力市场——但比即将上任的提名人沃什更为鹰派，后者最近的言论强调了降息的紧迫性。最早在 6 月的会议上可能开始加息，前提是鲍威尔仍然担任主席。</li>
</ul>
<p>他的结论是：这需要很多条件，但这些条件并非遥不可及。</p>
<p>4 月 10 日的 CPI 报告现在是多年来最重要的数据发布。如果数据达到 3.4% 或更高，讨论将从美联储是否能够加息转向何时加息。</p>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

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<p>正在进行的伊朗战争意外地改变了市场对美联储加息的预期，美国 2 年期国债收益率经历了自 2025 年 4 月以来最大的单日涨幅。Polymarket 目前预计美联储加息的概率为 21%，而在冲突之前这一概率仅为 6%。美国银行列出了加息的三个条件：劳动力市场稳定、核心通胀超过 3.2% 以及杰罗姆·鲍威尔继续担任美联储主席。即将发布的 4 月份消费者物价指数报告至关重要，因为如果读数超过 3.4%，可能会引发关于加息时机的讨论</p>

<p>President <strong>Donald Trump</strong> has spent months aggressively pushing Federal Reserve Chairman <strong>Jerome Powell</strong> to cut interest rates. But 21 days into the war in Iran — with no end in sight — the bond market is starting to scream what Trump would never have expected to hear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总统 <strong>唐纳德·特朗普</strong> 已经花了几个月的时间积极推动美联储主席 <strong>杰罗姆·鲍威尔</strong> 降息。但在伊朗战争爆发 21 天后——没有结束的迹象——债券市场开始发出特朗普从未预料到的信号。</p>
</div><p>A rate hike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加息。</p>
</div><p>Short-term interest-rate futures are now pricing chances of a Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of the year. Less than three weeks ago, markets had 60 basis points of cuts on the table.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期利率期货现在正在定价美联储在年底前加息的可能性。不到三周前，市场预计会有 60 个基点的降息。</p>
</div><p>The Iran war has not just reversed that assumption — it has flipped it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗战争不仅逆转了这一假设——而且彻底翻转了它。</p>
</div><h2>US 2-Year Yields Spike The Most In Over 2 Years: Why It Matters</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美国 2 年期国债收益率创两年多以来最大涨幅：这意味着什么</h2>
</div><p>On Thursday, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note surged 12 basis points to 3.92%, marking its sharpest single-day increase since April 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四，2 年期国债收益率飙升 12 个基点至 3.92%，创下自 2025 年 4 月以来的最大单日涨幅。</p>
</div><p>The move caps a powerful repricing. On a monthly basis, 2-year yields have risen 54 basis points — the largest increase since February 2023, when the Fed was deep into its most aggressive tightening cycle in four decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一变动标志着强劲的重新定价。从月度来看，2 年期收益率上升了 54 个基点——这是自 2023 年 2 月以来的最大增幅，当时美联储正处于四十年来最激进的紧缩周期中。</p>
</div><p>As a key proxy for near-term interest rate expectations, the 2-year yield is now signaling a shift in market pricing — with investors increasingly factoring in the risk of renewed rate hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为短期利率预期的关键指标，2 年期收益率现在发出市场定价转变的信号——投资者越来越多地考虑到再次加息的风险。</p>
</div><p>When rate hikes become the base case, rate-sensitive equities — such as the <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust</strong> — tend to come under heavy pressure, much like they did during the 2022 tightening cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当加息成为基本情况时，利率敏感型股票——如 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust</strong>——往往会受到严重压力，就像它们在 2022 年紧缩周期中所经历的那样。</p>
</div><figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><div class="lb-trans"><figure class="wp-block-image size-large"></figure></div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/20102038/image-472-1024x568.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/20102038/image-472-1024x568.png"/></p>
</figure><div class="lb-trans"></div><h2>The Rate Hike Odds That Nobody Expected Three Weeks Ago</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>三周前没人预料到的加息概率</h2>
</div><p>Polymarket’s Fed rate hike market for 2026 has jumped to a 24% probability. Before the war started, the probability of rate hike was as low as 6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Polymarket 的 2026 年美联储加息市场概率已跃升至 24%。在战争开始之前，加息的概率低至 6%。</p>
</div><p>The CME FedWatch tool now shows a 40% chance of at least one rate hike by October. And short-term rate futures have effectively priced out all remaining easing for the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CME FedWatch 工具现在显示到十月至少有一次加息的概率为 40%。短期利率期货实际上已经排除了今年剩余的所有宽松。</p>
</div><p>The speed of the repricing is as striking as the direction. At the start of March, the Federal Reserve was expected to deliver two to three rate cuts in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重新定价的速度与方向同样引人注目。在三月初，美联储预计将在 2026 年进行两到三次降息。</p>
</div><p>That consensus has been dismantled in less than three weeks by a single variable: the price of crude oil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一共识在不到三周的时间里被一个单一变量打破：原油价格。</p>
</div><h2>BofA Sets Bar For What It Would Actually Take For The Fed To Hike</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美国银行设定美联储加息的实际条件</h2>
</div><p>Bank of America economist <strong>Aditya Bhave</strong> published a note Thursday laying out the three conditions the Federal Reserve would need to see before seriously putting rate hikes on the table.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国银行经济学家 <strong>阿迪提亚·巴哈夫</strong> 周四发布了一份报告，列出了美联储在认真考虑加息之前需要看到的三个条件。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Labor Market Stability:</strong> In 2022, the Fed hiked through a technical recession because the unemployment rate was below 4% and falling. Modest payroll growth, steady jobless claims, and a stable job openings rate would support the case.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>劳动力市场稳定性：</strong> 在 2022 年，美联储在技术性衰退期间加息，因为失业率低于 4% 并且持续下降。适度的就业增长、稳定的失业救济申请和稳定的职位空缺率将支持这一论点。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Core Inflation Breakout above 3.2%:</strong> A 10% rise in WTI adds roughly 7 basis points to core inflation over time. If the Iran shock broadens into shipping, natural gas, fertilizers, and aluminum — a 2021–22 style supply disruption — 3.2% becomes reachable.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>核心通胀突破 3.2%：</strong> WTI 上涨 10% 大约会在一段时间内使核心通胀增加 7 个基点。如果伊朗冲击扩展到航运、天然气、化肥和铝——类似于 2021-22 年的供应中断——3.2% 是可以达到的。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Powell Still At The Helm:</strong> Fed nominee <strong>Kevin Warsh</strong> has not yet been confirmed. Bank of America views Powell as a moderate dove who would prioritize the labor market if risks are balanced — but far more hawkish than incoming nominee Warsh, whose recent comments have stressed urgency to cut. June is the earliest meeting at which hikes could begin, and only if Powell is still chairing.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>鲍威尔仍在掌舵：</strong> 美联储提名人 <strong>凯文·沃什</strong> 尚未获得确认。美国银行认为鲍威尔是一个温和的鸽派，如果风险平衡，他会优先考虑劳动力市场——但比即将上任的提名人沃什更为鹰派，后者最近的言论强调了降息的紧迫性。最早在 6 月的会议上可能开始加息，前提是鲍威尔仍然担任主席。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>His conclusion: it would take a lot, but the conditions are not out of reach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他的结论是：这需要很多条件，但这些条件并非遥不可及。</p>
</div><p>The April 10 CPI report is now the most consequential data release in years. If it prints at 3.4% or above, the conversation shifts from whether the Fed can hike to when.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4 月 10 日的 CPI 报告现在是多年来最重要的数据发布。如果数据达到 3.4% 或更高，讨论将从美联储是否能够加息转向何时加息。</p>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Trump's Iran War Is Doing What No One Expected: Bringing Rate Hikes Back On The Table

- 美联储主席鲍威尔面临加息压力，市场预期逆转。  
- 短期利率期货显示年内加息的可能性提升至 24%。  
- 劳动力市场和核心通胀数据将是加息的关键指标。

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特朗普的伊朗战争正在产生意想不到的效果：重新将加息纳入讨论范围