<p>中国的消费分化正变得越来越明显。泡泡玛特（Pop Mart，PMRTY）和老铺黄金（Laopu Gold，LPGCY）预计都将实现三位数的增长，在国内消费在疫情之外的最弱开局中脱颖而出。这一势头受到从 Labubu 娃娃到古风黄金首饰的病毒式需求推动，在线影响者的助力也不可忽视，尽管这种初期的激增现在似乎正在降温。投资者面临的关键问题是，这种增长水平是否能够持续，尽管泡泡玛特正在向新角色如 Twinkle Twinkle 和 Skullpanda 转型，而老铺黄金则继续受益于与黄金相关的需求，这种需求可能在 2026 年之前再次超过更广泛的消费，彭博情报公司表示。</p>
<p>在其他方面，整体消费和科技领域的表现则显得更加复杂。小米（Xiaomi，XIACY）预计将发布自 2023 年以来最慢的收入增长，因人工智能驱动的芯片短缺对其智能手机业务造成压力，尽管其电动车业务可能会实现强劲的环比增长。海底捞（Haidilao，HDALF）在创始人张勇回归担任首席执行官后再次成为焦点，尽管其核心战略可能仍然大体不变。安踏体育（Anta Sports，ANPDF）可能开始反映与其在 Puma 的股份相关的损失，而美团（Meituan，3690 HK）在外卖市场面临激烈竞争，持续亏损，并在人工智能和巴西等海外市场加大投入。</p>
<p>在能源和汽车领域，不确定性正在加剧。中国石油化工集团公司（Sinopec，SENGF）已被指示暂停燃料出口，因为中东紧张局势扰乱了原油运输，尽管政府批准的重组可能会增强其部分业务。中国海洋石油总公司（Cnooc，CEO）预计将在原油价格疲软的情况下报告利润下降，尽管天然气生产可能受益于中国的能源转型。比亚迪（BYD，BYDDF）也面临压力，预计季度利润将因出货量疲软而下降约三分之一，进一步的下行可能延续至 2026 年初，尽管出口正在获得动力。一个显著的例外是英诺维尔生物（Innovent Biologics，IVBXF），该公司有望在国内批准其减肥药后报告首个年度盈利，成为全球同行的本土挑战者。</p>

老铺黄金

华安黄金ETF

<p>泡泡玛特和老铺黄金预计将在中国消费支出放缓的情况下实现三位数增长。这一增长得益于对 Labubu 玩偶和黄金首饰的需求，尽管最初的激增正在减弱。投资者对可持续性感到担忧，因为泡泡玛特推出新角色，而老铺黄金则受益于黄金需求。相比之下，小米面临收入挑战，海底捞的战略保持不变，安踏体育可能会反映出来自彪马的损失。中石化在地缘政治紧张局势中暂停燃料出口，而信达生物则准备报告其首个年度盈利</p>

<p>China's consumer divide is becoming harder to ignore. Pop Mart (PMRTY) and Laopu Gold (LPGCY) are both expected to deliver triple-digit growth, standing out in a market where domestic spending has had one of its weakest starts outside the pandemic. That momentum has been driven by viral demand from Labubu dolls to ancient-style gold jewelry amplified by online influencers, though that initial surge now appears to be cooling. The key question for investors is whether this level of growth can be sustained, even as Pop Mart shifts toward new characters like Twinkle Twinkle and Skullpanda, and Laopu continues to benefit from gold-linked demand that could again outpace broader consumption into 2026, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国的消费分化正变得越来越明显。泡泡玛特（Pop Mart，PMRTY）和老铺黄金（Laopu Gold，LPGCY）预计都将实现三位数的增长，在国内消费在疫情之外的最弱开局中脱颖而出。这一势头受到从 Labubu 娃娃到古风黄金首饰的病毒式需求推动，在线影响者的助力也不可忽视，尽管这种初期的激增现在似乎正在降温。投资者面临的关键问题是，这种增长水平是否能够持续，尽管泡泡玛特正在向新角色如 Twinkle Twinkle 和 Skullpanda 转型，而老铺黄金则继续受益于与黄金相关的需求，这种需求可能在 2026 年之前再次超过更广泛的消费，彭博情报公司表示。</p>
</div><p>Elsewhere, the broader consumer and tech landscape looks more mixed. Xiaomi (XIACY) is expected to post its slowest revenue growth since 2023, as AI-driven chip shortages pressure its smartphone business, even as its EV segment could deliver strong sequential gains. Haidilao (HDALF) is back in focus following founder Zhang Yong's return as CEO, though its core strategy may remain largely unchanged. Anta Sports (ANPDF) may begin to reflect losses tied to its stake in Puma, while Meituan (3690 HK) continues to face intense competition in food delivery, with ongoing losses and a deeper push into AI and overseas markets such as Brazil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其他方面，整体消费和科技领域的表现则显得更加复杂。小米（Xiaomi，XIACY）预计将发布自 2023 年以来最慢的收入增长，因人工智能驱动的芯片短缺对其智能手机业务造成压力，尽管其电动车业务可能会实现强劲的环比增长。海底捞（Haidilao，HDALF）在创始人张勇回归担任首席执行官后再次成为焦点，尽管其核心战略可能仍然大体不变。安踏体育（Anta Sports，ANPDF）可能开始反映与其在 Puma 的股份相关的损失，而美团（Meituan，3690 HK）在外卖市场面临激烈竞争，持续亏损，并在人工智能和巴西等海外市场加大投入。</p>
</div><p>In energy and autos, uncertainty is building. China Petroleum &amp; Chemical Corp., or Sinopec (SENGF), has been instructed to suspend fuel exports as Middle East tensions disrupt crude shipments, even as a government-approved restructuring could strengthen parts of its business. Cnooc (CEO) is expected to report lower profits on softer crude prices, though gas production may benefit from China's energy transition. BYD (BYDDF) is also facing pressure, with quarterly profit expected to fall by about a third on weaker shipments and further downside possibly extending into early 2026, even as exports gain traction. One notable exception is Innovent Biologics (IVBXF), which is poised to report its first annual profit following domestic approval of its weight-loss drug, positioning it as a local challenger to global peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在能源和汽车领域，不确定性正在加剧。中国石油化工集团公司（Sinopec，SENGF）已被指示暂停燃料出口，因为中东紧张局势扰乱了原油运输，尽管政府批准的重组可能会增强其部分业务。中国海洋石油总公司（Cnooc，CEO）预计将在原油价格疲软的情况下报告利润下降，尽管天然气生产可能受益于中国的能源转型。比亚迪（BYD，BYDDF）也面临压力，预计季度利润将因出货量疲软而下降约三分之一，进一步的下行可能延续至 2026 年初，尽管出口正在获得动力。一个显著的例外是英诺维尔生物（Innovent Biologics，IVBXF），该公司有望在国内批准其减肥药后报告首个年度盈利，成为全球同行的本土挑战者。</p>
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在中国消费放缓的背景下，泡泡玛特和老铺黄金预计将实现三位数的增长