<p>我们最近讨论的这个私人信贷混乱引发了一个没人想问的问题：<em>2026 年会不会像 2008 年一样？</em></p>
<p>很容易理解为什么一些投资者可能会这样想。这也是我最近一直在思考的事情。但这里有个转折：我认为 2026 年更像另一个年份，而不是 2008 年。</p>
<p>那就是 2023 年。</p>
<p>如果你还记得，_那一年_是股票的买入机会——也是我们今天要讨论的封闭式基金（CEF）。事实上，2008 年_和_2023 年最终都成为了这个 7.7% 收益基金的强劲布局。</p>
<p>而今天的私人信贷困境为此后的强劲反弹打开了大门。</p>
<p>当然，2008 年不需要介绍。当时，由次贷推动的房地产泡沫摧毁了全球经济。（如果你太年轻而不记得，我建议你去看一下_《大空头》_。）标准普尔 500 指数从 2007 年的高点下跌超过 50%，直到 2009 年 3 月初触底。股票在 2012 年中才再次达到 2007 年的高点。</p>
<p><strong>2009 年是漫长复苏的开始...</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2008-2009.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2008-2009.png"/></p>
<p>还有另一种可能性（在我看来更有可能），如果我们今年确实看到干扰，它更像是 2023 年，一个我们都能记得的时期。</p>
<p>年初，硅谷银行和其他一些地区性银行的倒闭让人们想起了 15 年前发生的黑暗记忆。但如果我们看看之后发生的事情，很快就会发现 2023 年的下跌是一个绝佳的买入机会：</p>
<p><strong>... 而 2023 年标志着大市场上涨的开始</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2023-2026.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2023-2026.png"/></p>
<p>虽然 2008 年是让全球经济跪倒的一年，但 2023 年却成为了股票的强劲年份，从头到尾回报达 26.2%。截至目前，自 2023 年 3 月的低点以来，标准普尔 500 指数已上涨了 80%。</p>
<p>不过，我相信你还记得当时空气中的恐惧。但我们看待这次抛售的方式是：这是一个以低价买入的机会。在 2023 年 3 月的一篇文章中，我写道：“这次抛售导致了更深的 CEF 折扣——以及我们_CEF Insider_投资组合中的一些不错的买入机会。”</p>
<p>在 2023 年 3 月的_CEF Insider_期刊中，我们做出了一个逆向操作，买入了以金融为重点的 <strong>John Hancock Financial Opportunities Fund (BTO)</strong>。到我们在 2024 年 7 月卖出时，BTO 已经带来了 24.1% 的可观总回报。（此后我们又将该基金重新加入了我们的投资组合。）</p>
<p>该基金在我们购买时的收益率为 8.4%，并在过去 15 年中稳步增长分红（由于其股价上涨，该基金今天的收益率为 7.7%）：</p>
<p><strong>BTO 的高额且不断增长的分红</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Dividend.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Dividend.png"/></p>
<p>现在，得益于今年的波动性，我们有机会以低价购买 BTO：</p>
<p><strong>BTO 从溢价转为折扣</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Discount.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Discount.png"/></p>
<p>事实上，在过去十年中，BTO 的净资产价值平均溢价为 3.7%，使得这一净资产价值（NAV）的折扣看起来比实际更大。为什么这个交易会出现在我们面前？线索在于该基金的投资组合：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Holdings.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Holdings.png"/></p>
<p><em>来源：John Hancock</em></p>
<p>正如你所看到的，BTO 专注于地区性银行。<strong>Old National Bancorp (ONB)</strong>、<strong>Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP)</strong>、<strong>Popular (BPOP)</strong> 和 <strong>Citizens Financial Group (CFG)</strong> 都是在过去几年中蓬勃发展的地区性银行。</p>
<p>这也推动了 BTO 在长期内的强劲回报：过去十年年化回报率为 10.7%。换句话说，2016 年投资 BTO 的每 10 万美元，截至目前大约值 31.9 万美元。</p>
<p>即使在 2008 年之后，BTO（如下图绿色部分所示）表现也很好：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Total-Returns.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Total-Returns.png"/></p>
<p><em>来源：John Hancock</em></p>
<p>在大衰退后的十年中，BTO 将 10 万美元变成了 267,478 美元。这是一个稳健的正回报，显示出该基金即使在一代人中最严重的金融危机之后仍能带来利润。</p>
<p><strong>我的看法？这个私人信贷混乱更像是 2023 年，而不是 2008 年</strong></p>
<p>这让我们回到了私人信贷，以及股票是否因这一高度不透明市场中的风险管理不善而面临回调的边缘。</p>
<p>我的看法？很可能，这种情况只是小题大做。首先考虑更广泛的背景：私人信贷市场约为总企业信贷市场的六分之一，最坏的估计表明，私人信贷通常以当前水平的 20% 折扣进行标记。</p>
<p>其次，像 BTO 这样的多元化基金即使在最坏的情况下也可能表现良好：该基金持有 186 种资产，涵盖了多家银行、保险公司和其他金融机构。</p>
<p>粗略估计表明，私人信贷的回调可能仅会对 BTO 的净资产价值造成约 3.3% 的影响。我认为这在很大程度上已经被定价在内，因为 BTO 的折扣最近扩大，而该基金通常以 3.7% 的溢价交易。</p>
<p>这两个数字是这里需要关注的，因为它们表明 BTO——在长期和短期内表现强劲——无论这一切如何发展，都适合买入。</p>
<p><strong>我也对这四只 9.2% 收益的基金发出紧急买入信号</strong></p>
<p>不仅仅是 BTO——当前市场动荡也扩大了许多其他 CEF 的折扣。我们不仅在 BTO 上加码，还在另外四只 <strong>总收益率为 9.2% 的基金</strong> 上加码。</p>
<p>我称它们为 “全明星” 基金，因为它们在长期内表现强劲，更不用说那丰厚的 9.2% 分红，其中两只每月支付一次。</p>
<p>如果你想在这些四只基金的深度折扣关闭之前抓住机会，就没有时间可以浪费。<strong>点击这里，我会告诉你更多关于它们的信息，并提供一份免费的特别报告，揭示它们的名称和代码</strong>。</p>
<h5>另请参见：</h5>
<p> 沃伦·巴菲特的股息股票</p>
<p> 股息增长股票：25 位贵族</p>
<p> 未来的股息贵族：紧密竞争者</p>
<p>此处表达的观点和意见仅代表作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点。</p>

<p>这篇文章讨论了对私人信贷市场的担忧，将 2026 年与 2008 年进行比较，同时暗示 2026 年可能更接近 2023 年。文章强调了在 2023 年硅谷银行倒闭后出现的买入机会，这一事件导致市场大幅上涨。重点关注的是 John Hancock Financial Opportunities Fund (BTO)，该基金的收益率为 7.7%，并且在过去几年中表现出强劲的回报，尤其是在市场下跌期间。作者认为当前的私人信贷问题是可控的，并为 BTO 提供了一个买入机会</p>

<p>This private-credit mess we've been talking about lately has raised a question no one wants to ask: <em>Is 2026 shaping up to be another 2008?</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们最近讨论的这个私人信贷混乱引发了一个没人想问的问题：<em>2026 年会不会像 2008 年一样？</em></p>
</div><p>It's easy to see why some investors may be thinking along those lines. And it's something I've been giving a lot of thought to lately. But here's the twist: There's another year I think 2026 resembles a lot more than 2008.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很容易理解为什么一些投资者可能会这样想。这也是我最近一直在思考的事情。但这里有个转折：我认为 2026 年更像另一个年份，而不是 2008 年。</p>
</div><p>That would be 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那就是 2023 年。</p>
</div><p>If you remember, <em>that</em> year was a buying opportunity in stocks--and to pick up the closed-end fund (CEF) we're going to discuss today. In fact, both 2008 <em>and</em> 2023 ultimately turned into strong setups for this 7.7%-paying fund.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你还记得，_那一年_是股票的买入机会——也是我们今天要讨论的封闭式基金（CEF）。事实上，2008 年_和_2023 年最终都成为了这个 7.7% 收益基金的强劲布局。</p>
</div><p>And today's private-credit woes open the door to another strong run from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而今天的私人信贷困境为此后的强劲反弹打开了大门。</p>
</div><p>2008, of course, needs no introduction. Back then, a housing bubble inflated by subprime mortgages took down the global economy. (If you're too young to remember, I'd recommend watching <em>The Big Short</em>.) The S&amp;P 500 fell more than 50% from its 2007 peak till it reached the trough in early March 2009. Stocks didn't see that 2007 high again until mid-2012.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，2008 年不需要介绍。当时，由次贷推动的房地产泡沫摧毁了全球经济。（如果你太年轻而不记得，我建议你去看一下_《大空头》_。）标准普尔 500 指数从 2007 年的高点下跌超过 50%，直到 2009 年 3 月初触底。股票在 2012 年中才再次达到 2007 年的高点。</p>
</div><p><strong>2009 Was the Start of a Long Grind Back ...</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>2009 年是漫长复苏的开始...</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2008-2009.png" alt="" original-src="https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2008-2009.png"/></p>
<p>Then there's the other (and in my view more likely) possibility that if we do see a disruption this year, it'll look more like 2023, a time we can all remember.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还有另一种可能性（在我看来更有可能），如果我们今年确实看到干扰，它更像是 2023 年，一个我们都能记得的时期。</p>
</div><p>Early that year, the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and some other regional lenders brought back dark memories of what had happened 15 years earlier. But if we look at what's happened since, it quickly becomes clear that the 2023 dip was a fantastic buying opportunity:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>年初，硅谷银行和其他一些地区性银行的倒闭让人们想起了 15 年前发生的黑暗记忆。但如果我们看看之后发生的事情，很快就会发现 2023 年的下跌是一个绝佳的买入机会：</p>
</div><p><strong>... While 2023 Signaled the Start of a Big Market Surge</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>... 而 2023 年标志着大市场上涨的开始</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2023-2026.png" alt="" original-src="https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2023-2026.png"/></p>
<p>While 2008 was a year that brought the global economy to its knees, 2023 ended up being a strong year for stocks, returning 26.2% from beginning to end. And since the trough of the March 2023 selloff, the S&amp;P 500 has gained a solid 80%, as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 2008 年是让全球经济跪倒的一年，但 2023 年却成为了股票的强劲年份，从头到尾回报达 26.2%。截至目前，自 2023 年 3 月的低点以来，标准普尔 500 指数已上涨了 80%。</p>
</div><p>Still, I'm sure you recall the fear in the air at the time. But we saw the selloff for what it was: a chance to buy at a bargain. In a March 2023 article, I wrote that &#34;the selloff has resulted in deeper CEF discounts--and some nice buying opportunities in our <em>CEF Insider</em> portfolio.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，我相信你还记得当时空气中的恐惧。但我们看待这次抛售的方式是：这是一个以低价买入的机会。在 2023 年 3 月的一篇文章中，我写道：“这次抛售导致了更深的 CEF 折扣——以及我们_CEF Insider_投资组合中的一些不错的买入机会。”</p>
</div><p>And in the March 2023 issue of <em>CEF Insider</em>, we made a contrarian move, picking up the finance-focused <strong>John Hancock Financial Opportunities Fund (BTO)</strong>. By the time we sold a little over a year later, in July 2024, BTO had delivered a tidy 24.1% total return. (We've since re-added the fund to our portfolio.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2023 年 3 月的_CEF Insider_期刊中，我们做出了一个逆向操作，买入了以金融为重点的 <strong>John Hancock Financial Opportunities Fund (BTO)</strong>。到我们在 2024 年 7 月卖出时，BTO 已经带来了 24.1% 的可观总回报。（此后我们又将该基金重新加入了我们的投资组合。）</p>
</div><p>The fund also yielded 8.4% when we bought and has been steadily growing the payout for the last 15 years (the fund yields 7.7% today, due to the gain in its share price):</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该基金在我们购买时的收益率为 8.4%，并在过去 15 年中稳步增长分红（由于其股价上涨，该基金今天的收益率为 7.7%）：</p>
</div><p><strong>BTO's High, and Growing, Payout</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>BTO 的高额且不断增长的分红</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Dividend.png" alt="" original-src="https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Dividend.png"/></p>
<p>And now, thanks to this year's volatility, we have an opportunity to buy BTO at a bargain:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，得益于今年的波动性，我们有机会以低价购买 BTO：</p>
</div><p><strong>BTO Flips From a Premium to a Discount</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>BTO 从溢价转为折扣</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Discount.png" alt="" original-src="https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Discount.png"/></p>
<p>In fact, over the last decade, BTO has had a 3.7% average <em>premium</em> to its net asset value, making this discount to net asset value (NAV) bigger than it looks. Why is this deal in front of us? A hint is in the fund's portfolio:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，在过去十年中，BTO 的净资产价值平均溢价为 3.7%，使得这一净资产价值（NAV）的折扣看起来比实际更大。为什么这个交易会出现在我们面前？线索在于该基金的投资组合：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Holdings.png" alt="" original-src="https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Holdings.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: John Hancock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：John Hancock</em></p>
</div><p>As you can see, BTO is focused on regional banks. <strong>Old National Bancorp (ONB)</strong>, <strong>Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP)</strong>, <strong>Popular (BPOP)</strong> and <strong>Citizens Financial Group (CFG)</strong> are all regional banks that have thrived over the last few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如你所看到的，BTO 专注于地区性银行。<strong>Old National Bancorp (ONB)</strong>、<strong>Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP)</strong>、<strong>Popular (BPOP)</strong> 和 <strong>Citizens Financial Group (CFG)</strong> 都是在过去几年中蓬勃发展的地区性银行。</p>
</div><p>That's driven BTO to strong returns over the long haul, too: 10.7% annualized over the last decade, to be exact. Put another way, every $100,000 invested in BTO in 2016 would be worth around $319,000 as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也推动了 BTO 在长期内的强劲回报：过去十年年化回报率为 10.7%。换句话说，2016 年投资 BTO 的每 10 万美元，截至目前大约值 31.9 万美元。</p>
</div><p>And even following 2008, BTO (shown in green below) performed well:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在 2008 年之后，BTO（如下图绿色部分所示）表现也很好：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Total-Returns.png" alt="" original-src="https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Total-Returns.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: John Hancock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：John Hancock</em></p>
</div><p>In the decade following the Great Recession, BTO turned $100,000 into $267,478. That's a solid positive return, showing that the fund can still deliver profits, even in the wake of the worst financial crisis in a generation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在大衰退后的十年中，BTO 将 10 万美元变成了 267,478 美元。这是一个稳健的正回报，显示出该基金即使在一代人中最严重的金融危机之后仍能带来利润。</p>
</div><p><strong>My Take? This Private-Credit Fiasco Is More Like 2023 Than 2008</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>我的看法？这个私人信贷混乱更像是 2023 年，而不是 2008 年</strong></p>
</div><p>Which brings us back to private credit, and whether stocks are on the verge of a pullback due to poor risk management in this largely opaque market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这让我们回到了私人信贷，以及股票是否因这一高度不透明市场中的风险管理不善而面临回调的边缘。</p>
</div><p>My take? Most likely, this situation is a tempest in a teapot. Consider first of all the wider context: The private-credit market is about one-sixth the size of the total corporate credit market, and the worst estimates point to private credit generally being marked to market at a 20% discount to current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我的看法？很可能，这种情况只是小题大做。首先考虑更广泛的背景：私人信贷市场约为总企业信贷市场的六分之一，最坏的估计表明，私人信贷通常以当前水平的 20% 折扣进行标记。</p>
</div><p>Second, a diversified fund like BTO is likely to hold up well even in the worst-case scenario: The fund holds 186 assets across a range of banks, insurers and other financial institutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，像 BTO 这样的多元化基金即使在最坏的情况下也可能表现良好：该基金持有 186 种资产，涵盖了多家银行、保险公司和其他金融机构。</p>
</div><p>A rough estimate suggests that a private-credit pullback could translate into only about a 3.3% hit to BTO's NAV. I see that as largely priced in, due to the recent widening of BTO's discount and the fact that this fund has generally traded around a 3.7% premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>粗略估计表明，私人信贷的回调可能仅会对 BTO 的净资产价值造成约 3.3% 的影响。我认为这在很大程度上已经被定价在内，因为 BTO 的折扣最近扩大，而该基金通常以 3.7% 的溢价交易。</p>
</div><p>These are the two numbers to key in on here, as they suggest BTO--which has performed strongly over the long haul <em>and</em> the short--is ripe for buying, no matter how this all plays out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这两个数字是这里需要关注的，因为它们表明 BTO——在长期和短期内表现强劲——无论这一切如何发展，都适合买入。</p>
</div><p><strong>I'm Issuing an Urgent Buy Call on These Four 9.2% Payers, Too</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>我也对这四只 9.2% 收益的基金发出紧急买入信号</strong></p>
</div><p>It's not just BTO--the current market turbulence has widened the discounts on plenty of other CEFs, too. And we're doubling down, not just on BTO but on 4 other funds <strong>yielding a rich 9.2% between them</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不仅仅是 BTO——当前市场动荡也扩大了许多其他 CEF 的折扣。我们不仅在 BTO 上加码，还在另外四只 <strong>总收益率为 9.2% 的基金</strong> 上加码。</p>
</div><p>I call them &#34;All-Star&#34; funds for the strong long-term runs they've put up, not to mention those rich 9.2% payouts, two of which come our way <em>monthly</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我称它们为 “全明星” 基金，因为它们在长期内表现强劲，更不用说那丰厚的 9.2% 分红，其中两只每月支付一次。</p>
</div><p>There's no time to waste if you want to grab these 4 funds before their deep discounts slam shut. <strong>Click here and I'll tell you more about them and give you a free Special Report revealing their names and tickers</strong> <strong>.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你想在这些四只基金的深度折扣关闭之前抓住机会，就没有时间可以浪费。<strong>点击这里，我会告诉你更多关于它们的信息，并提供一份免费的特别报告，揭示它们的名称和代码</strong>。</p>
</div><h5>Also see:</h5>
<div class="lb-trans"><h5>另请参见：</h5>
</div><p> Warren Buffett Dividend Stocks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p> 沃伦·巴菲特的股息股票</p>
</div><p> Dividend Growth Stocks: 25 Aristocrats</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p> 股息增长股票：25 位贵族</p>
</div><p> Future Dividend Aristocrats: Close Contenders</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p> 未来的股息贵族：紧密竞争者</p>
</div><p>The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此处表达的观点和意见仅代表作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点。</p>
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私人信贷恐慌？这个 7.7% 的股息正是为此而设计的