<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/japan.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/japan.png"/></p>
<p>日经 225 指数在技术性修正中持续承压，交易者关注中东的持续发展。在最新的日本消费者通胀和 PMI 报告发布后，该指数也有所回落。</p>
<h2>日本股市因伊朗战争持续承压</h2>
<p>尽管美国股市在周一大幅上涨，道琼斯和纳斯达克 100 指数分别上涨超过 600 点和 300 点，但日经 225 指数仍处于修正状态。</p>
<p>在唐纳德·特朗普宣布他的政府正在与伊朗进行谈判后，美国股市大幅上涨。因此，他决定停止计划中的对伊朗能源基础设施的轰炸。</p>
<p>然而，现实是伊朗拒绝了这些说法，并坚持认为霍尔木兹海峡仍然对敌国关闭。特朗普在与地区政府交谈后决定缓和局势，因为伊朗威胁要轰炸他们的基础设施和海水淡化厂。</p>
<p>因此，伊朗战争可能会持续一段时间，因为伊朗旨在防止未来的攻击。伊朗还坚称，它需要美国和以色列支付相关费用。</p>
<p>这些担忧解释了为什么能源价格再次开始上涨。布伦特原油作为基准资产上涨至 100 美元，而西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）上涨至 92 美元。</p>
<p>日本是最受影响的国家之一，因为它大部分能源依赖中东进口。</p>
<h2>日本通胀和 PMI 数据</h2>
<p>在最新的日本通胀和 PMI 数据发布后，日经 225 指数也有所回落。根据标普全球的数据，制造业 PMI 从 2 月份的 53.0 降至 3 月份的 51.4。</p>
<p>同样，服务业 PMI 从 53.8 降至 52.8，而综合指数从 53.90 降至 52.50。这些数字意味着该国的商业活动在持续的伊朗战争中开始放缓。</p>
<p>另一份报告显示，在战争开始之前，日本的通胀有所缓和。整体通胀从 1.5% 降至 1.3%，而核心 CPI 从 2% 降至 1.6%。</p>
<p>尽管通胀趋势向好，但由于国内能源价格上涨，未来几个月通胀可能会反弹。因此，日本央行可能会在今年晚些时候决定加息。这也解释了为什么日本的债券收益率本月持续上升。</p>
<p>日经 225 指数中的主要涨幅公司包括住友大日本、Citizen Holdings、三井、Hoya、Resona Holdings 和三菱化学。</p>
<p>另一方面，一些主要公司股价下跌。日本板玻璃的股价下跌近 10%，而日本钢铁、川崎、Konami 和三菱重工的股价均下跌超过 3%。</p>
<h2>日经 225 指数技术分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Nikkei-225-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Nikkei-225-2.png"/></p>
<p><em>日经指数图表 | 来源：TradingView</em></p>
<p>日线图显示，日经 225 指数在过去几周中回落，从 2 月份的高点¥59,330 降至当前的¥51,90。</p>
<p>它已经跌破了自去年 8 月以来连接最低波动的上升趋势线。它还重新测试了该趋势线，确认了突破和重新测试模式。</p>
<p>该指数已跌破 50 日指数移动平均线（EMA），而 MACD 指标已跌至零线以下。</p>
<p>因此，该指数可能会继续下跌，因为卖方将目标锁定在关键支撑位¥50,000。如果跌破关键支撑位¥51,837，这一观点将得到确认。</p>
<p>本文的标题为《日经 225 指数为何面临跌至¥50,000 的风险》，首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

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南方两倍看多日经

南方两倍看空日经

<p>日经 225 指数受到技术性修正的压力，受持续的中东紧张局势以及近期日本通胀和采购经理人指数（PMI）数据的影响。尽管美国股市上涨，该指数已从 59,330 日元回落至 51,900 日元，分析师预测可能会跌至 50,000 日元。日本的通胀有所缓和，但能源价格上涨可能会促使日本银行考虑加息。主要股票表现不一，一些大型公司经历了显著的下跌</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/japan.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/japan.png"/></p>
<p>The Nikkei 225 Index remained under pressure in a technical correction as traders observed the ongoing developments in the Middle East. It also retreated after the latest Japanese consumer inflation and PMI report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日经 225 指数在技术性修正中持续承压，交易者关注中东的持续发展。在最新的日本消费者通胀和 PMI 报告发布后，该指数也有所回落。</p>
</div><h2>Japan stocks pressured as Iran war continues</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日本股市因伊朗战争持续承压</h2>
</div><p>The Nikkei 225 Index remains in a correction despite the surge in American equities on Monday, when the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 indices rose by over 600 and 300 points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管美国股市在周一大幅上涨，道琼斯和纳斯达克 100 指数分别上涨超过 600 点和 300 点，但日经 225 指数仍处于修正状态。</p>
</div><p>US equities jumped after Donald Trump did a TACO, by announcing that his administration was in talks with Iran. As a result, he decided to stop the planned bombing of Iran’s energy infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在唐纳德·特朗普宣布他的政府正在与伊朗进行谈判后，美国股市大幅上涨。因此，他决定停止计划中的对伊朗能源基础设施的轰炸。</p>
</div><p>However, the reality is that Iran has rejected these claims and maintained that the Strait of Hormuz was still closed to enemy countries. Trump decided to de-escalate after talking with regional governments as Iran had threatened to bomb their infrastructure and desalination plants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，现实是伊朗拒绝了这些说法，并坚持认为霍尔木兹海峡仍然对敌国关闭。特朗普在与地区政府交谈后决定缓和局势，因为伊朗威胁要轰炸他们的基础设施和海水淡化厂。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, there is a likelihood that the Iran war will continue for a while as the latter aims to prevent future attacks. Iran also insists that it will need to be paid by the United States and Israel for the description.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，伊朗战争可能会持续一段时间，因为伊朗旨在防止未来的攻击。伊朗还坚称，它需要美国和以色列支付相关费用。</p>
</div><p>These fears explain why energy prices have started rising again. Brent, the benchmark asset, rose to $100, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $92.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些担忧解释了为什么能源价格再次开始上涨。布伦特原油作为基准资产上涨至 100 美元，而西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）上涨至 92 美元。</p>
</div><p>Japan is one of the most exposed countries as it imports most of its energy from the Middle East.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本是最受影响的国家之一，因为它大部分能源依赖中东进口。</p>
</div><h2>Japan inflation and PMI data</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日本通胀和 PMI 数据</h2>
</div><p>The Nikkei 225 Index also retreated after the latest Japanese inflation and PMI data. According to S&amp;P Global, the manufacturing PMI dropped from 53.0 in February to 51.4 in March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最新的日本通胀和 PMI 数据发布后，日经 225 指数也有所回落。根据标普全球的数据，制造业 PMI 从 2 月份的 53.0 降至 3 月份的 51.4。</p>
</div><p>Similarly, the services PMI dropped from 53.8 to 52.8, while the composite figure dropped from 53.90 to 52.50. These numbers mean that business activity in the country has started to moderate amid the ongoing Iran war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样，服务业 PMI 从 53.8 降至 52.8，而综合指数从 53.90 降至 52.50。这些数字意味着该国的商业活动在持续的伊朗战争中开始放缓。</p>
</div><p>Another report showed that Japan's inflation moderated before the war started. The headline inflation dropped from 1.5% to 1.3%, while the core CPI dropped from 2% to 1.6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一份报告显示，在战争开始之前，日本的通胀有所缓和。整体通胀从 1.5% 降至 1.3%，而核心 CPI 从 2% 降至 1.6%。</p>
</div><p>While the inflation trend is positive, chances are that it will rebound in the coming months because of the rising energy prices in the country. As a result, the Bank of Japan may decide to hike interest rates later this year. This explains why Japan’s bond yields have continued rising this month m</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管通胀趋势向好，但由于国内能源价格上涨，未来几个月通胀可能会反弹。因此，日本央行可能会在今年晚些时候决定加息。这也解释了为什么日本的债券收益率本月持续上升。</p>
</div><p>The top gainers in the Nikkei 225 Index were companies like Sumitomo Dainippon, Citizen Holdings, Mitsui, Hoya, Resona Holdings, and Mitsubishi Chemicals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日经 225 指数中的主要涨幅公司包括住友大日本、Citizen Holdings、三井、Hoya、Resona Holdings 和三菱化学。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, some top companies were in the red. Nippon Sheet Glass stock dropped by nearly 10%, while Japan Steel Works, Kawasaki, Konami, and Mitsubishi Heavy dropped by over 3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，一些主要公司股价下跌。日本板玻璃的股价下跌近 10%，而日本钢铁、川崎、Konami 和三菱重工的股价均下跌超过 3%。</p>
</div><h2>Nikkei 225 Index technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日经 225 指数技术分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Nikkei-225-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Nikkei-225-2.png"/></p>
<p><em>Nikkei Index chart | Source: TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>日经指数图表 | 来源：TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>The daily timeframe chart shows that the Nikkei 225 Index has retreated in the past few weeks, moving from a high of ¥59,330 in February to the current ¥51,90.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日线图显示，日经 225 指数在过去几周中回落，从 2 月份的高点¥59,330 降至当前的¥51,90。</p>
</div><p>It has dropped below the ascending trendline that links the lowest swings since August last year. It also retested that trendline, confirming the break-and-retest pattern.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它已经跌破了自去年 8 月以来连接最低波动的上升趋势线。它还重新测试了该趋势线，确认了突破和重新测试模式。</p>
</div><p>The index has dropped below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the MACD indicator has moved below the zero line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该指数已跌破 50 日指数移动平均线（EMA），而 MACD 指标已跌至零线以下。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the index will likely continue falling as sellers target the key support level at ¥50,000. This view will be confirmed if it drops below the key support level at ¥51,837.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，该指数可能会继续下跌，因为卖方将目标锁定在关键支撑位¥50,000。如果跌破关键支撑位¥51,837，这一观点将得到确认。</p>
</div><p>The post Here’s why the Nikkei 225 Index is at risk of falling to ¥50,000 appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文的标题为《日经 225 指数为何面临跌至¥50,000 的风险》，首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
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以下是日经 225 指数可能跌至 50,000 日元的原因