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<p>印度的石油营销公司股票在周五市场开盘时可能再次承压，因为在中东供应中断的担忧再次加剧后，油价上涨。</p>
<p>印度石油公司（HPCL）、巴拉特石油公司（BPCL）和印度石油公司（IOC）的股票在周三曾上涨至 2%，当时布伦特和西德克萨斯中间基准油价暴跌。</p>
<p>油价上涨通常会对下游股票施加压力，因为它们的原材料成本显著增加。</p>
<p>由于这些公司通常在价格受管制的情况下，有限地将这些成本转嫁给消费者，因此它们的利润空间受到挤压。</p>
<p>它们以更高的价格购买原油进行精炼，然后销售成品，但如果成品的价格没有与原油成本成比例地上涨，消费者的成本完全转嫁受到限制。</p>
<h2>油价再次上涨</h2>
<p>伊朗外长周三表示，尽管德黑兰仍在审查旨在结束战争的美国提议，但该国无意参与解决中东冲突的谈判。</p>
<p>伊朗外长的评论在周四引发了布伦特和西德克萨斯中间基准油价的反弹，此前基准油价在前一交易日大幅下跌。</p>
<p>布伦特油价最新为每桶 104.13 美元，上涨 1.9%；而 WTI 上涨 2%，报每桶 92.10 美元。</p>
<p>周三这两个基准油价一度下跌超过 4%，这对 OMC 股票产生了积极影响。</p>
<p>白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特表示，如果德黑兰不承认其 “在军事上被击败”，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将加大对伊朗的压力。</p>
<p>据报道，特朗普通过巴基斯坦提出的 15 点提案列出了对伊朗的多项要求。</p>
<p>这些要求包括：移除其高度浓缩的铀库存，完全停止铀浓缩活动，限制其弹道导弹计划，以及停止对其地区盟友的资金支持。</p>
<p>冲突导致霍尔木兹海峡的运输几乎完全中断，该海峡通常占全球原油和液化天然气供应的约 20%。</p>
<p>国际能源署将这一中断称为历史上最严重的石油供应中断。</p>
<h2>OMC 股票持续承压</h2>
<p>由于美国原油价格上涨和以色列 - 伊朗冲突带来的不确定性，国际券商瑞银本月早些时候下调了三只 OMC 股票的评级。</p>
<p>瑞银下调了这些股票的目标价格：IOCL 的目标从 190 印度卢比降至 175 印度卢比，BPCL 的目标从 425 印度卢比降至 365 印度卢比，HPCL 的目标从 540 印度卢比降至 340 印度卢比。</p>
<p>瑞银分析师表示，当前原油价格的上涨和地缘政治紧张局势正在为印度国有石油营销公司的盈利带来不确定性。</p>
<p>这种情况让人想起 2022 年经历的石油市场中断。</p>
<p>依赖燃料营销的石油公司在精炼利润高于营销时面临挑战。</p>
<p>这在对营销利润率的显著下调中得到了体现，预计 2026-2027 财年的下调幅度为 43-45%，2028 财年为 22-26%。</p>
<p>从市场角度来看，预计石油精炼商、下游公司和天然气公司将受到最严重的影响。</p>
<p>根据 Elara Securities 的分析，当油价超过每桶 110 美元时，财务缓冲显著减少。</p>
<p>Elara Securities 最近指出，像 HPCL、BPCL 和印度石油这样的石油营销公司面临最大的脆弱性。</p>
<p>虽然较高的毛炼油利润率（GRMs）可能提供一些缓解，但它们不太可能完全弥补零售利润下降和液化石油气（LPG）损失增加的影响。</p>
<p>分析表明，当布伦特原油价格约为每桶 100 美元时，除非采取如提高燃料价格、减税或增加 LPG 补贴等措施，否则 OMCs 的盈利可能会严重下降——下降幅度在 90% 到 190% 之间。</p>
<p>关于油价飙升：印度 OMC 利润承压，供应风险的文章首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

CWPE

西方石油

OILCF

<p>由于对中东供应中断的担忧，油价飙升，给印度的石油营销公司（OMCs）如 HPCL、BPCL 和 IOC 带来了压力。这些公司面临利润空间被压缩的局面，因为原油价格上涨增加了投入成本，而它们将这些成本转嫁给消费者的能力受到监管定价的限制。瑞银在地缘政治紧张局势升级的背景下下调了这些 OMCs 的目标价格，预测除非采取如提高燃油价格或补贴等措施，否则将出现显著的盈利下降。布伦特原油目前的价格为每桶 104.13 美元，WTI 为 92.10 美元</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Oil-pumpjack-in-a-field.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Oil-pumpjack-in-a-field.png"/></p>
<p>Shares of oil marketing companies in India are likely to come under pressure again when the market opens on Friday, as oil prices rose after concerns about supply disruptions from the Middle East gained momentum once again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度的石油营销公司股票在周五市场开盘时可能再次承压，因为在中东供应中断的担忧再次加剧后，油价上涨。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC) had gained up to 2% on Wednesday when Brent and West Texas Intermediate prices tumbled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度石油公司（HPCL）、巴拉特石油公司（BPCL）和印度石油公司（IOC）的股票在周三曾上涨至 2%，当时布伦特和西德克萨斯中间基准油价暴跌。</p>
</div><p>Rising oil prices typically put pressure on downstream stocks because their input costs increase significantly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价上涨通常会对下游股票施加压力，因为它们的原材料成本显著增加。</p>
</div><p>Since these companies often have limited ability to pass these costs on, usually due to regulated pricing, their margins are squeezed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于这些公司通常在价格受管制的情况下，有限地将这些成本转嫁给消费者，因此它们的利润空间受到挤压。</p>
</div><p>They purchase crude at higher prices for refining and then sell the finished products, but if the prices of the end products do not rise proportionally with the cost of crude, a full cost pass-through to consumers is restricted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它们以更高的价格购买原油进行精炼，然后销售成品，但如果成品的价格没有与原油成本成比例地上涨，消费者的成本完全转嫁受到限制。</p>
</div><h2>Oil prices rise again</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>油价再次上涨</h2>
</div><p>Iran's foreign minister stated on Wednesday that while Tehran is still reviewing a US proposal aimed at ending the war, the nation has no intention of engaging in talks to resolve the Middle East conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗外长周三表示，尽管德黑兰仍在审查旨在结束战争的美国提议，但该国无意参与解决中东冲突的谈判。</p>
</div><p>The comments by Iran’s foreign minister sparked a rally on Thursday in Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude prices after the benchmarks had fallen sharply in the previous session.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗外长的评论在周四引发了布伦特和西德克萨斯中间基准油价的反弹，此前基准油价在前一交易日大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>The price of Brent was last at $104.13 per barrel, up 1.9%, while WTI was up 2% at $92.10 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特油价最新为每桶 104.13 美元，上涨 1.9%；而 WTI 上涨 2%，报每桶 92.10 美元。</p>
</div><p>Both benchmarks had slumped more than 4% at one point on Wednesday, which aided the OMC stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三这两个基准油价一度下跌超过 4%，这对 OMC 股票产生了积极影响。</p>
</div><p>White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that US President Donald Trump would intensify pressure on Iran if Tehran does not concede that it has been &#34;defeated militarily.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特表示，如果德黑兰不承认其 “在军事上被击败”，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将加大对伊朗的压力。</p>
</div><p>According to reports, the 15-point proposal presented by Trump via Pakistan outlines several demands for Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>据报道，特朗普通过巴基斯坦提出的 15 点提案列出了对伊朗的多项要求。</p>
</div><p>These include the removal of its highly enriched uranium stockpiles, a complete stop to enrichment activities, restrictions on its ballistic missile program, and the cessation of funding for its regional allies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些要求包括：移除其高度浓缩的铀库存，完全停止铀浓缩活动，限制其弹道导弹计划，以及停止对其地区盟友的资金支持。</p>
</div><p>The conflict has led to a near-total cessation of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that normally accounts for approximately 20% of the global crude oil and liquefied natural gas supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>冲突导致霍尔木兹海峡的运输几乎完全中断，该海峡通常占全球原油和液化天然气供应的约 20%。</p>
</div><p>This disruption has been labeled by the International Energy Agency as the most significant oil supply interruption in history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际能源署将这一中断称为历史上最严重的石油供应中断。</p>
</div><h2>OMC stocks remain under pressure</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>OMC 股票持续承压</h2>
</div><p>Mounting uncertainty stemming from rising crude oil prices in the US, Israel-Iran conflict led international brokerage firm UBS to downgrade three OMC stocks earlier this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于美国原油价格上涨和以色列 - 伊朗冲突带来的不确定性，国际券商瑞银本月早些时候下调了三只 OMC 股票的评级。</p>
</div><p>UBS revised its target prices for the counters: IOCL's target was lowered to INR 175 from INR 190, BPCL's to INR 365 from INR 425, and HPCL's to INR 340 from INR 540.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银下调了这些股票的目标价格：IOCL 的目标从 190 印度卢比降至 175 印度卢比，BPCL 的目标从 425 印度卢比降至 365 印度卢比，HPCL 的目标从 540 印度卢比降至 340 印度卢比。</p>
</div><p>According to UBS analysts, the current rise in crude prices and escalating geopolitical tensions are creating uncertainty for the earnings of Indian state-owned oil marketing companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银分析师表示，当前原油价格的上涨和地缘政治紧张局势正在为印度国有石油营销公司的盈利带来不确定性。</p>
</div><p>This situation is reminiscent of the oil market disruption experienced in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种情况让人想起 2022 年经历的石油市场中断。</p>
</div><p>Oil companies that rely heavily on fuel marketing face challenges when refining becomes more profitable than marketing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>依赖燃料营销的石油公司在精炼利润高于营销时面临挑战。</p>
</div><p>This is evident in the substantial cuts to marketing margin estimates, which have been reduced by 43-45% for the financial year 2026-2027 (April-March) and 22-26% for FY28.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这在对营销利润率的显著下调中得到了体现，预计 2026-2027 财年的下调幅度为 43-45%，2028 财年为 22-26%。</p>
</div><p>Market-wise, oil refiners, downstream firms, and gas companies are anticipated to be the most affected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从市场角度来看，预计石油精炼商、下游公司和天然气公司将受到最严重的影响。</p>
</div><p>According to Elara Securities, the financial cushion significantly diminishes when oil prices exceed $110 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Elara Securities 的分析，当油价超过每桶 110 美元时，财务缓冲显著减少。</p>
</div><p>Elara Securities recently noted that oil marketing companies (OMCs) like HPCL, BPCL, and Indian Oil face the greatest vulnerability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Elara Securities 最近指出，像 HPCL、BPCL 和印度石油这样的石油营销公司面临最大的脆弱性。</p>
</div><p>While higher gross refining margins (GRMs) could provide some mitigation, they are unlikely to fully compensate for the impact of diminished retail margins and increasing losses on LPG.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然较高的毛炼油利润率（GRMs）可能提供一些缓解，但它们不太可能完全弥补零售利润下降和液化石油气（LPG）损失增加的影响。</p>
</div><p>The analysis indicated that with Brent crude at approximately $100 per barrel, OMCs' earnings could plummet severely—by 90% to 190%—unless measures such as a fuel price increase, tax reductions, or enhanced LPG subsidies are implemented.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析表明，当布伦特原油价格约为每桶 100 美元时，除非采取如提高燃料价格、减税或增加 LPG 补贴等措施，否则 OMCs 的盈利可能会严重下降——下降幅度在 90% 到 190% 之间。</p>
</div><p>The post Oil prices surge: Indian OMC margins under pressure amid supply risks appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于油价飙升：印度 OMC 利润承压，供应风险的文章首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
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Oil prices surge: Indian OMC margins under pressure amid supply risks

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油价飙升：在供应风险的背景下，印度石油营销公司的利润率承受压力