<p>本月早些时候，韩国政府表示将尝试正式结束朝鲜战争。1953 年 7 月的停战协议结束了战斗，但交战方——联合国军、中国和两韩——并未签署正式条约。韩国甚至没有签署停战协议。</p>
<p>“政府将寻求反映结束朝鲜战争政治意愿的 ‘和平宣言’，并启动关于建立和平机制的讨论，包括签署和平条约，” 统一部在给国会外交与统一委员会的信中写道。</p>
<p>和平有什么问题？和平宣言可能直接导致战争。</p>
<p>一项宣言可能会导致美国与韩国的共同防御条约终止。该条约的结束将大大增加北朝鲜对南方采取行动的可能性，甚至可能引发战争。</p>
<p>本月，由李在明总统领导的韩国政府公布了其 “朝鲜半岛和平方案”。</p>
<p>然而，北朝鲜并不是一个愿意和平的伙伴。上个月，在朝鲜劳动党第九次代表大会上，北方的执政组织拒绝了与南方的所有对话和接触。金正恩，这一政权的领导者，早前就表明了这一立场：在 2024 年，他称南方为 “主要敌人和不变的首要敌人”。</p>
<p>在第二次世界大战结束时，苏联和美国沿着 38 度线将朝鲜分为两个临时占领区。朝鲜曾统一了 1300 年，被割裂为两部分。</p>
<p>联合国本应进行选举以统一朝鲜，但从未举行。最终，双方各自建立了自己的傀儡国家。每个朝鲜都声称自己是朝鲜人民的唯一代表，北方的领导人金日成试图通过在 1950 年 6 月入侵南方来统一国家。在平壤称之为 “伟大的祖国解放战争” 的战斗持续到停战协议签署。</p>
<p>尽管有停战协议，北朝鲜每天仍在继续战争。金家政权已经进入第三代，认为必须如此，因为它需要一个敌人来证明其存在的合理性。政权需要证明其存在，因为根据大多数标准，北朝鲜是一个失败的国家。</p>
<p>北方现在拥有核武器，即使没有核武器，也能征服南方，但由于美国军队的存在，这一切都无法实现。华盛顿和首尔在停战协议签署几个月后通过签署军事协议巩固了 “血铸的联盟”。</p>
<p>“对北朝鲜侵略最重要的威慑力量是美国军队，” 安吉洛州立大学的布鲁斯·贝克托尔告诉我，他是多本关于北朝鲜的书籍的作者。“金正恩并不比他的父亲或祖父更害怕南方，但与世界上最强大的军队对抗？这不在计划之内。”</p>
<p>李政府提出的结束战争宣言可能会导致 “灾难性的完美风暴，” 贝克托尔说。</p>
<p>如果各方都发布这样的宣言，许多人会认为不再需要美国军队或与华盛顿的条约。“在李政府和特朗普政府中，肯定会有人对此大声疾呼，” 贝克托尔说。“而随后正是北朝鲜恢复对南方的战斗的完美时机，南方是美国第六大贸易伙伴。”</p>
<p>年轻的韩国人完全支持与美国的联盟，并将韩国视为他们的国家。然而，掌权者来自一个认为其国家是整个朝鲜——而不是南韩的世代。像李这样的左翼人士希望统一，并错误地将美国视为实现这一目标的障碍。</p>
<p>李在过去的言论表明他厌恶美国。例如，在 2021 年 7 月竞选韩国民主党总统提名时，他称驻韩美军为 “占领军”。在一些似乎旨在激发反美情绪的言论中，他指责美国维持日本对朝鲜的仇恨殖民统治。</p>
<p>有人说李是一个机会主义者，只是在说他认为当时受欢迎的话。只有他自己知道他真正的意图，但李的政党有反对与华盛顿紧密关系的历史，并积极与北京和平壤建立关系。</p>
<p>无论他今天的意图如何，李正在倡导可能导致朝鲜半岛再次爆发战争的步骤。</p>
<p><em>戈登·G·张是《红色计划：摧毁美国的中国计划》和《即将崩溃的中国》的作者。</em></p>

韩国电力

KDEF

<p>韩国政府旨在正式结束朝鲜战争，寻求一项和平声明，这可能会危及其与美国的共同防御条约。这可能会鼓励朝鲜，朝鲜拒绝对话并将南方视为敌人。专家警告称，这样的声明可能导致北方的攻击性增加，潜在地引发战争。目前由李在明总统领导的韩国政府在反对与美国关系方面有着历史，令人担忧其和平倡议的影响</p>

<p>Earlier this month, South Korea’s government stated it would try to formally end the Korean War. A July 1953 armistice ended the fighting, but the combatants — the United Nations Command, China and the two Koreas — have not signed a formal treaty. South Korea did not even sign the armistice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月早些时候，韩国政府表示将尝试正式结束朝鲜战争。1953 年 7 月的停战协议结束了战斗，但交战方——联合国军、中国和两韩——并未签署正式条约。韩国甚至没有签署停战协议。</p>
</div><p>“The government will seek the ‘peace declaration’ that reflects the political will to end the Korean War and kick off discussions for the establishment of a peace regime, including the signing of a peace treaty,” the Unification Ministry wrote to the foreign affairs and unification committee of the National Assembly, the country’s unicameral legislature.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“政府将寻求反映结束朝鲜战争政治意愿的 ‘和平宣言’，并启动关于建立和平机制的讨论，包括签署和平条约，” 统一部在给国会外交与统一委员会的信中写道。</p>
</div><p>What’s wrong with peace? A peace declaration could lead straight to war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>和平有什么问题？和平宣言可能直接导致战争。</p>
</div><p>A declaration would probably result in the termination of America’s mutual defense treaty with South Korea. An end to that pact would substantially increase the possibility that North Korea would move against the South, perhaps with a war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一项宣言可能会导致美国与韩国的共同防御条约终止。该条约的结束将大大增加北朝鲜对南方采取行动的可能性，甚至可能引发战争。</p>
</div><p>South Korea’s government, headed by President Lee Jae-myung, this month unveiled its “Korean Peninsula Peace Package.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月，由李在明总统领导的韩国政府公布了其 “朝鲜半岛和平方案”。</p>
</div><p>North Korea, however, is not a willing partner in peace. Last month, at the Ninth Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea, the North’s ruling organization rejected all dialogue and engagement with the South. Kim Jong Un, the regime’s leader, had earlier signaled this stance: In 2024, he called the South the “primary foe and invariable principal enemy.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，北朝鲜并不是一个愿意和平的伙伴。上个月，在朝鲜劳动党第九次代表大会上，北方的执政组织拒绝了与南方的所有对话和接触。金正恩，这一政权的领导者，早前就表明了这一立场：在 2024 年，他称南方为 “主要敌人和不变的首要敌人”。</p>
</div><p>At the end of the Second World War, the Soviet Union and the U.S. divided Korea along the 38th parallel into two temporary occupation zones. Korea, which had been unified for 1,300 years, was severed into two.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第二次世界大战结束时，苏联和美国沿着 38 度线将朝鲜分为两个临时占领区。朝鲜曾统一了 1300 年，被割裂为两部分。</p>
</div><p>The U.N. was supposed to conduct elections to unify Korea, but they were never held. Eventually, each side established its own client state. Each Korea claimed to be the sole representative of the Korean people, and Kim Il Sung, the leader of the northern half, attempted to unify the country by invading the South in June 1950. The fighting during the “Great Fatherland Liberation War,” as Pyongyang calls it, lasted until the armistice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>联合国本应进行选举以统一朝鲜，但从未举行。最终，双方各自建立了自己的傀儡国家。每个朝鲜都声称自己是朝鲜人民的唯一代表，北方的领导人金日成试图通过在 1950 年 6 月入侵南方来统一国家。在平壤称之为 “伟大的祖国解放战争” 的战斗持续到停战协议签署。</p>
</div><p>Despite the armistice, North Korea keeps fighting the war every day. The Kim family regime, now in its third generation, feels it must do so because it needs an enemy to justify its existence. The regime needs to justify its existence because, by most measures, North Korea is a failing state.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管有停战协议，北朝鲜每天仍在继续战争。金家政权已经进入第三代，认为必须如此，因为它需要一个敌人来证明其存在的合理性。政权需要证明其存在，因为根据大多数标准，北朝鲜是一个失败的国家。</p>
</div><p>The North now has nuclear weapons and could, even without them, conquer the South, but for the presence of the American military. Washington and Seoul solidified “the alliance forged in blood” by signing their military pact just a few months after the armistice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北方现在拥有核武器，即使没有核武器，也能征服南方，但由于美国军队的存在，这一切都无法实现。华盛顿和首尔在停战协议签署几个月后通过签署军事协议巩固了 “血铸的联盟”。</p>
</div><p>“The most important deterrent against North Korean aggression is the U.S. military,” Bruce Bechtol of Angelo State University and author of several books on North Korea told me this month. “Kim Jong Un is not afraid of South Korea any more than his father or grandfather were, but taking on the most powerful military in the world? Not in the cards.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“对北朝鲜侵略最重要的威慑力量是美国军队，” 安吉洛州立大学的布鲁斯·贝克托尔告诉我，他是多本关于北朝鲜的书籍的作者。“金正恩并不比他的父亲或祖父更害怕南方，但与世界上最强大的军队对抗？这不在计划之内。”</p>
</div><p>An end-of-war declaration, such as the one that the Lee government has proposed, could result in “a disastrous perfect storm,” Bechtol said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>李政府提出的结束战争宣言可能会导致 “灾难性的完美风暴，” 贝克托尔说。</p>
</div><p>If there is such a declaration by all sides, many will argue that there would be no need for American troops or the treaty with Washington. “There will certainly be those in both the Lee and Trump administrations banging that drum,” says Bechtol. “And soon thereafter would be the perfect time for North Korea to resume combat against the South, America’s sixth-largest trading partner.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果各方都发布这样的宣言，许多人会认为不再需要美国军队或与华盛顿的条约。“在李政府和特朗普政府中，肯定会有人对此大声疾呼，” 贝克托尔说。“而随后正是北朝鲜恢复对南方的战斗的完美时机，南方是美国第六大贸易伙伴。”</p>
</div><p>Younger Koreans are fully supportive of the alliance with the U.S. and view South Korea as their nation. Those in power, however, come from a generation that believes its country is the whole Korea — not South Korea. Leftists like Lee want unification and wrongly perceive the U.S. as an impediment to that goal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>年轻的韩国人完全支持与美国的联盟，并将韩国视为他们的国家。然而，掌权者来自一个认为其国家是整个朝鲜——而不是南韩的世代。像李这样的左翼人士希望统一，并错误地将美国视为实现这一目标的障碍。</p>
</div><p>Lee’s past words suggest he abhors the U.S. While campaigning for the presidential nomination of his Democratic Party of Korea in July 2021, for instance, he called American troops in his country an “occupying force.” And in remarks that appear to have been intended to inflame anti-American sentiment, he blamed the U.S. for maintaining Japan’s hated colonization of Korea.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>李在过去的言论表明他厌恶美国。例如，在 2021 年 7 月竞选韩国民主党总统提名时，他称驻韩美军为 “占领军”。在一些似乎旨在激发反美情绪的言论中，他指责美国维持日本对朝鲜的仇恨殖民统治。</p>
</div><p>Some say Lee is an opportunist and was merely saying what he thought was popular at the time. Only he knows what he was really doing, but Lee’s party has a history of both opposing close ties with Washington and actively building relations with Beijing and Pyongyang.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有人说李是一个机会主义者，只是在说他认为当时受欢迎的话。只有他自己知道他真正的意图，但李的政党有反对与华盛顿紧密关系的历史，并积极与北京和平壤建立关系。</p>
</div><p>Whatever his intentions are today, Lee is advocating steps that could lead to another war on the Korean peninsula.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论他今天的意图如何，李正在倡导可能导致朝鲜半岛再次爆发战争的步骤。</p>
</div><p><em>Gordon G. Chang is the author of “Plan Red: China’s Project to Destroy America” and “The Coming Collapse of China.”</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>戈登·G·张是《红色计划：摧毁美国的中国计划》和《即将崩溃的中国》的作者。</em></p>
</div>

在朝鲜半岛上，和平宣言可能会引发战争