<h2>关键要点</h2>
<ul>
<li>几个月前令人畏惧的泡沫估值已经大幅回落。</li>
<li>尽管如此，大多数科技行业的股票仍处于合理定价与异常昂贵之间的持平状态。</li>
<li>市场是否愿意进一步推高科技股，取决于人工智能行业近期资本支出的回报率。</li>
<li>这 10 只股票可能会造就下一波百万富翁 ›</li>
</ul>
<p>这种担忧并非毫无根据。自 2023 年以来，大多数与人工智能（AI）相关的股票所取得的涨幅显然使得至少某些估值过于紧绷。例如，<strong>Nvidia</strong>（NASDAQ: NVDA）的股票价格超过其过去利润的 35 倍。<strong>Amazon</strong>（NASDAQ: AMZN）的交易价格接近其过去四个报告季度的收益的 30 倍。这些股票的近亲科技公司也经历了同样的疯狂旅程，推高了它们的估值。</p>
<p>然而，在对整个科技行业得出任何全面的长期结论之前，明智的做法是退一步看看数据所显示的情况。你可能会对这个行业整体目前的状况感到有些惊讶。</p>
<p><em><strong>人工智能会创造出世界上第一个万亿富翁吗？</strong> 我们的团队刚刚发布了一份关于一家鲜为人知的公司报告，该公司被称为 “不可或缺的垄断”，提供 Nvidia 和 Intel 都需要的关键技术。<strong>继续 »</strong></em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2MTM2Ni9lbmQtb2YtdGhlLXJvYWQuanBnAjZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2MTM2Ni9lbmQtb2YtdGhlLXJvYWQuanBnAjZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>数字，图示</h2>
<p>我使用 <strong>标准普尔 500 信息技术行业指数</strong> 作为我的代理，部分原因是这个市值加权指数包含了所有 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong>（SNPINDEX: ^GSPC）的科技名称，同时也因为这个指数有大量的基本信息，包括收入以及过去和预测的每股收益。</p>
<p>而我更感兴趣的是最后这一部分数据。你不仅可以用它来得出一些回顾性和前瞻性的估值，还可以了解这些公司的底线趋势，以及在可预见的未来可能发生的变化（如果有的话）。</p>
<p>下面的图表展示了投资者应该了解的关于目前被认为是风险较高的科技行业的许多信息。如你所见，标准普尔 500 信息技术行业指数目前的估值为其过去 12 个月每股收益的 29.8 倍，预计到今年年底仍将继续飙升。事实上，基于分析师对 2026 年令人印象深刻的收益预测——比去年的利润增长 38%——这些股票的前瞻性市盈率仅略低于 24。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2MTM2Ni8wMzI0MjYtc3A1MDAtaW5mby10ZWNoLXNlY3Rvci1mdW5kYW1lbnRhbHMucG5nAjZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2MTM2Ni8wMzI0MjYtc3A1MDAtaW5mby10ZWNoLXNlY3Rvci1mdW5kYW1lbnRhbHMucG5nAjZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：Yahoo Finance，标准普尔。市盈率计算由作者完成。</p>
<p>需要明确的是，这两个数字仍高于各自的长期标准，尽管并不令人感到不适。根据 World PE Ratio 的数据，科技行业的市盈率在 1990 年代末的互联网泡沫期间超过了 40，而 Yardeni Research 表示，这些股票的前瞻性市盈率接近加权平均值 25。</p>
<p>尽管如此，许多（或许太多）股票的估值确实超出了历史标准，定价中包含了预计将在今年形成的收益爆炸，但这并不一定会实现。如果中东冲突升级或持续，或者如果一些科技公司未能迅速将其在人工智能上的大量投资转化为实际利润，该行业可能会轻易落后于这些高昂的行业整体收益增长预测。</p>
<h2>这已成为一种全有或全无的选择</h2>
<p>这正是困扰投资者的难题，也是科技行业近期疲软的主要原因。</p>
<p>在最近的回调之后，像 <strong>Microsoft</strong>（NASDAQ: MSFT）和 Nvidia 这样的科技股应该能够维持当前水平，因为世界在等待这些公司是否能如预期般表现。实际上，考虑到其前瞻性市盈率低于 16，Nvidia 的股票相对便宜。Microsoft 的股票在下一个财年的预计收益为 19.01 美元时，市盈率也可以说是便宜，低于 20 倍。<strong>Broadcom</strong>（NASDAQ: AVGO）的交易价格也仅约为明年预计底线的 18 倍，预计将比今年可能的利润增长超过 50%，再加上另一轮巨大的收入增长。考虑到投资者对未来的预期，这些看似高昂的估值实际上是有道理的。</p>
<p>但市场上大多数受欢迎的人工智能股票的定价也没有给失望的收益增长留有余地。如果这些名字中有太多无法满足其高昂的预期，可能会对大多数行业股票造成夸大的影响，以及由少数几家庞大的科技公司如 Nvidia、Amazon 和 Microsoft 主导的市值加权基金。</p>
<p>这实在令人遗憾，因为许多不以人工智能为主的科技股票的定价实际上相当合理。它们可能仅仅因为处于错误的行业而在错误的时间被抛售。</p>
<p>底线？整体来看，科技股尚未走到尽头，尤其是在从 10 月份的高点回调之后。在重新回到之前的泡沫估值之前，仍有很大的上升空间。</p>
<p>这几乎完全依赖于人工智能革命的另一个巨大增长年。如果所有主要参与者的表现不如预期，投资者很容易会将整个行业的估值调回到长期平均水平，大约为其过去收益的 20 倍，就像 2000 年互联网泡沫破裂后几年的情况一样……尽管当时许多今天的科技巨头已经开始真正增长。</p>
<p>请谨慎行事。你绝对不能像几年前那样盲目买入和持有该行业的任何股票。要仔细挑选。</p>
<h2>现在投资 $1,000 的地方</h2>
<p>当我们的分析师团队有股票推荐时，听取建议是值得的。毕竟，<em>Stock Advisor</em> 的总平均回报率为 912%*——相比之下，标准普尔 500 指数的回报率为 185%，表现出色。</p>
<p>他们刚刚透露了他们认为的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong>，供投资者现在购买，<strong>加入_Stock Advisor_ 时可获得。</strong></p>
<p><strong>查看股票 »</strong></p>
<p><em>*Stock Advisor 的回报截至 2026 年 3 月 27 日。</em></p>
<p><em>James Brumley 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。Motley Fool 在亚马逊、微软和英伟达中持有头寸并推荐这些股票。Motley Fool 推荐博通。Motley Fool 有披露政策。</em></p>
<p>此处表达的观点和意见是作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点。</p>

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

大盘指数 MSCI ETF - Vanguard

电子游戏&体育 ETF - GlobalX

<p>科技行业的估值已经有所缓和，但许多股票仍处于合理与昂贵之间。科技股的未来取决于人工智能行业对近期投资的回报。标准普尔 500 信息技术行业指数的当前市盈率为 29.8，前瞻性市盈率低于 24，仍高于历史正常水平。人们对潜在盈利增长失败的担忧加剧，尤其是在地缘政治紧张局势升级的情况下。虽然像英伟达和微软这样的股票看起来相对便宜，但许多人工智能股票的定价过于完美，如果预期未能实现，可能面临显著下跌的风险</p>

<h2>Key Points</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关键要点</h2>
</div><ul>
<li>The frothy valuations that were daunting just a few months ago have already been dialed back quite a bit.</li>
<li>Even so, most of the tech sector's stocks are in a holding pattern somewhere between being reasonably priced and unusually expensive.</li>
<li>Whether or not the market is willing to push technology stocks any higher depends on how much return the AI industry achieves on its recent capex.</li>
<li>These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires ›</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>几个月前令人畏惧的泡沫估值已经大幅回落。</li>
<li>尽管如此，大多数科技行业的股票仍处于合理定价与异常昂贵之间的持平状态。</li>
<li>市场是否愿意进一步推高科技股，取决于人工智能行业近期资本支出的回报率。</li>
<li>这 10 只股票可能会造就下一波百万富翁 ›</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The concern isn't an unmerited one. The gains that most artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks have made since 2023 have obviously stretched at least <em>some</em> valuations far too thin. <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NASDAQ: NVDA) shares, for instance, are priced at more than 35 times their trailing profits. <strong>Amazon</strong>(NASDAQ: AMZN) is trading at nearly 30 times its earnings for the past four reported quarters. And these tickers' closest technology cousins have been taken along for the same wild ride, inflating their valuations as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种担忧并非毫无根据。自 2023 年以来，大多数与人工智能（AI）相关的股票所取得的涨幅显然使得至少某些估值过于紧绷。例如，<strong>Nvidia</strong>（NASDAQ: NVDA）的股票价格超过其过去利润的 35 倍。<strong>Amazon</strong>（NASDAQ: AMZN）的交易价格接近其过去四个报告季度的收益的 30 倍。这些股票的近亲科技公司也经历了同样的疯狂旅程，推高了它们的估值。</p>
</div><p>Before coming to any sweeping long-term conclusions about the entire technology sector, though, it's smart to simply take a step back and look at what the data says. You might be a bit surprised at where this sector as a whole currently stands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在对整个科技行业得出任何全面的长期结论之前，明智的做法是退一步看看数据所显示的情况。你可能会对这个行业整体目前的状况感到有些惊讶。</p>
</div><p><em><strong>Will AI create the world's first trillionaire?</strong> Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an &#34;Indispensable Monopoly&#34; providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. <strong>Continue »</strong></em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><strong>人工智能会创造出世界上第一个万亿富翁吗？</strong> 我们的团队刚刚发布了一份关于一家鲜为人知的公司报告，该公司被称为 “不可或缺的垄断”，提供 Nvidia 和 Intel 都需要的关键技术。<strong>继续 »</strong></em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2MTM2Ni9lbmQtb2YtdGhlLXJvYWQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F861366%2Fend-of-the-road.jpg&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The numbers, in pictures</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>数字，图示</h2>
</div><p>I'm using the <strong>S&amp;P 500 Information Technology Sector Index</strong> as my proxy, partially because this cap-weighted index includes all of the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) technology names, but also just because a great deal of fundamental information exists for this index, including revenue as well as past and projected per-share earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我使用 <strong>标准普尔 500 信息技术行业指数</strong> 作为我的代理，部分原因是这个市值加权指数包含了所有 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong>（SNPINDEX: ^GSPC）的科技名称，同时也因为这个指数有大量的基本信息，包括收入以及过去和预测的每股收益。</p>
</div><p>And it's this last bit of data that I'm more interested in. Not only can you use it to come up with some backward-looking and forward-looking valuations, but you can also gain an understanding of how these companies' bottom lines have been trending, and what (if anything) is likely to change in the foreseeable future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而我更感兴趣的是最后这一部分数据。你不仅可以用它来得出一些回顾性和前瞻性的估值，还可以了解这些公司的底线趋势，以及在可预见的未来可能发生的变化（如果有的话）。</p>
</div><p>The graphic below illustrates a great deal of what investors should know about what's <em>supposed</em> to be a risky tech sector right now. As you can see, the S&amp;P 500 Information Technology Sector Index is currently priced at a somewhat palatable 29.8 times its trailing-12-month per-share earnings that are expected to continue soaring through the end of this year. In fact, based on analysts' 2026 impressive earnings projections -- up 38% from last year's profits -- these stocks are priced at a forward-looking price-to-earnings ratio of just under 24.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下面的图表展示了投资者应该了解的关于目前被认为是风险较高的科技行业的许多信息。如你所见，标准普尔 500 信息技术行业指数目前的估值为其过去 12 个月每股收益的 29.8 倍，预计到今年年底仍将继续飙升。事实上，基于分析师对 2026 年令人印象深刻的收益预测——比去年的利润增长 38%——这些股票的前瞻性市盈率仅略低于 24。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2MTM2Ni8wMzI0MjYtc3A1MDAtaW5mby10ZWNoLXNlY3Rvci1mdW5kYW1lbnRhbHMucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F861366%2F032426-sp500-info-tech-sector-fundamentals.png&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data sources: Yahoo Finance, Standard &amp; Poor's. P/E calculations by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：Yahoo Finance，标准普尔。市盈率计算由作者完成。</p>
</div><p>Both figures are still above their respective long-term norms, to be clear, although not uncomfortably so. The technology sector's trailing P/E eclipsed 40 during the dot-com craze of the late 1990s, according to data from World PE Ratio, when Yardeni Research says these ticker's forward-looking projected price-to-earnings ratios approached a weighted average near 25.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要明确的是，这两个数字仍高于各自的长期标准，尽管并不令人感到不适。根据 World PE Ratio 的数据，科技行业的市盈率在 1990 年代末的互联网泡沫期间超过了 40，而 Yardeni Research 表示，这些股票的前瞻性市盈率接近加权平均值 25。</p>
</div><p>Still, there's no denying many (perhaps too many) of these stocks are valued well beyond their historical norms, pricing in an earnings explosion that's expected to take shape this year, but certainly isn't guaranteed to do so. If the conflict in the Middle East escalates or lingers -- or if a bunch of tech companies just don't turn their sizable investments in AI into real profits soon -- the sector could easily end up falling well short of these lofty sectorwide earnings growth projections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，许多（或许太多）股票的估值确实超出了历史标准，定价中包含了预计将在今年形成的收益爆炸，但这并不一定会实现。如果中东冲突升级或持续，或者如果一些科技公司未能迅速将其在人工智能上的大量投资转化为实际利润，该行业可能会轻易落后于这些高昂的行业整体收益增长预测。</p>
</div><h2>It's become an all-or-nothing proposition</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这已成为一种全有或全无的选择</h2>
</div><p>There's the rub that's haunting investors, and largely responsible for the technology sector's recent weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这正是困扰投资者的难题，也是科技行业近期疲软的主要原因。</p>
</div><p>After their recent pullbacks, technology stocks like <strong>Microsoft</strong>(NASDAQ: MSFT) and Nvidia should be able to hold their current levels as the world waits to see if these companies will do as well as expected. Indeed, Nvidia shares are a relative bargain given their forward-looking price-to-earnings ratio of less than 16. Microsoft shares are also arguably cheap at less than 20 times next fiscal year's projected earnings of $19.01. <strong>Broadcom</strong>'s (NASDAQ: AVGO) only trading at about 18 times next year's expected bottom line as well, which should be up more than 50% from this year's likely profits on another round of massive revenue growth. These seemingly steep valuations actually make a lot of sense given what investors believe is coming.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近的回调之后，像 <strong>Microsoft</strong>（NASDAQ: MSFT）和 Nvidia 这样的科技股应该能够维持当前水平，因为世界在等待这些公司是否能如预期般表现。实际上，考虑到其前瞻性市盈率低于 16，Nvidia 的股票相对便宜。Microsoft 的股票在下一个财年的预计收益为 19.01 美元时，市盈率也可以说是便宜，低于 20 倍。<strong>Broadcom</strong>（NASDAQ: AVGO）的交易价格也仅约为明年预计底线的 18 倍，预计将比今年可能的利润增长超过 50%，再加上另一轮巨大的收入增长。考虑到投资者对未来的预期，这些看似高昂的估值实际上是有道理的。</p>
</div><p>But most of the market's most popular artificial intelligence stocks are also priced with no room for disappointing earnings growth. If a few too many of these names are unable to meet their lofty expectations, it's likely to take an exaggerated toll on most of the sector's names, as well as the cap-weighted funds dominated by a small handful of enormous tech companies like Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但市场上大多数受欢迎的人工智能股票的定价也没有给失望的收益增长留有余地。如果这些名字中有太多无法满足其高昂的预期，可能会对大多数行业股票造成夸大的影响，以及由少数几家庞大的科技公司如 Nvidia、Amazon 和 Microsoft 主导的市值加权基金。</p>
</div><p>That's too bad, too, since many off-the-radar technology stocks that aren't AI mainstays are actually priced pretty reasonably. And they'll likely peel back just for being in the wrong industry at the wrong time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这实在令人遗憾，因为许多不以人工智能为主的科技股票的定价实际上相当合理。它们可能仅仅因为处于错误的行业而在错误的时间被抛售。</p>
</div><p>Bottom line? Tech stocks as a whole haven't run out of road just yet, particularly after their pullback from October's highs. There's plenty of room to climb before re-inflating to their previous, frothy valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>底线？整体来看，科技股尚未走到尽头，尤其是在从 10 月份的高点回调之后。在重新回到之前的泡沫估值之前，仍有很大的上升空间。</p>
</div><p>That almost entirely hinges on another massive year of growth for the artificial intelligence revolution, though. Anything less than greatness from all of the movement's leading names could easily convince investors to dial back sectorwide valuations to the longer-term average of around 20 times its trailing earnings, as was the case for several years following the dot-com crash of 2000... even though many of today's tech giants were already starting to grow in earnest then.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这几乎完全依赖于人工智能革命的另一个巨大增长年。如果所有主要参与者的表现不如预期，投资者很容易会将整个行业的估值调回到长期平均水平，大约为其过去收益的 20 倍，就像 2000 年互联网泡沫破裂后几年的情况一样……尽管当时许多今天的科技巨头已经开始真正增长。</p>
</div><p>Just tread lightly. You certainly can't afford to blindly buy and hold any and every name in the sector like you could a couple of years ago. Pick and choose carefully.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请谨慎行事。你绝对不能像几年前那样盲目买入和持有该行业的任何股票。要仔细挑选。</p>
</div><h2>Where to invest $1,000 right now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在投资 $1,000 的地方</h2>
</div><p>When our analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, <em>Stock Advisor’s</em> total average return is 912%* — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 185% for the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当我们的分析师团队有股票推荐时，听取建议是值得的。毕竟，<em>Stock Advisor</em> 的总平均回报率为 912%*——相比之下，标准普尔 500 指数的回报率为 185%，表现出色。</p>
</div><p>They just revealed what they believe are the <strong>10 best stocks</strong> for investors to buy right now, <strong>available when you join_Stock Advisor._</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们刚刚透露了他们认为的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong>，供投资者现在购买，<strong>加入_Stock Advisor_ 时可获得。</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>See the stocks »</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看股票 »</strong></p>
</div><p><em>*Stock Advisor returns as of March 27, 2026.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>*Stock Advisor 的回报截至 2026 年 3 月 27 日。</em></p>
</div><p><em>James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>James Brumley 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。Motley Fool 在亚马逊、微软和英伟达中持有头寸并推荐这些股票。Motley Fool 推荐博通。Motley Fool 有披露政策。</em></p>
</div><p>The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此处表达的观点和意见是作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点。</p>
</div>

Have Tech Stocks Finally Run Out of Road? Here's What the Data Actually Says.

- 科技股估值已回落，但大多数仍在合理和高估之间。  
- 投资者需关注人工智能行业的回报和公司盈利能力。  
- 部分非人工智能技术股估值合理，投资需谨慎选择。

nasdaq

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

T-Rex 2X Long Microsoft Daily Target ETF

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - GraniteShares

视频游戏技术 ETF - ETFMG

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

云计算 ETF - GlobalX

北美科技软件股指数 ETF - iShares

SP Funds S&P Global Tech ETF

标普 500 ETF - Vanguard

全球科技股指数 ETF - iShares

Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Microsoft MSFT ETF

Proshares Big Data Refiners ETF

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

标普软件与服务 ETF - SPDR

高科技指数 ETF - SPDR

FRNKL EXP DT ETF

半导体 ETF - VanEck Vectors

标普半导体 ETF - SPDR

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

电子游戏&电子竞技 ETF - VanEck Vectors

标普 500 ETF - SPDR

微软每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

费城交易所 半导体 ETF - iShares

动态半导体 ETF - Invesco

YieldMax MSFT Option Income Strategy ETF

英伟达

微软

科技股是否真的已经没有上涨空间了？数据究竟揭示了什么？