<div id="readability-page-1"><div id="parent_top_div">Global airlines have begun to hike fares and cut capacity to cope with the sudden surge in the oil price, but the industry's ability to remain profitable may depend on whether consumers pull back on flying as gasoline costs threaten household budgets. Before the US-Israeli conflict ​with Iran began last month, the airline industry had forecast record profits of $41 billion in 2026, but a doubling in ​jet fuel prices has placed that at risk and forced carriers to rethink their networks and strategies. Carriers ranging from United Airlines to Air New Zealand and Scandinavia's ‌SAS have announced capacity cuts and fare hikes, while others have imposed fuel surcharges. &#34;Airlines face an existential challenge,&#34; said Rigas Doganis, who once headed Greece's former national carrier, Olympic Airways and served as a director of Britain's easyJet. &#34;They will need to cut fares to stimulate weakening demand while higher fuel costs will be pushing them to increase fares. A perfect storm,&#34; said Doganis, who now chairs London-based consultancy firm Airline Management Group. Record passenger traffic Last year, the industry reported record global passenger traffic that rebounded to about 9 per cent above pre-pandemic levels even in the face of persistent supply-chain challenges that affected deliveries of new planes. Record post-pandemic demand for travel and persistent supply-chain challenges had constrained capacity growth and given airlines significant pricing power as they filled more seats on each plane. But the scale of the increases needed to make up for the jet fuel price surge is huge at a time when consumers are under pressure from higher gasoline prices that could curb discretionary spending. &#34;The only way to get prices up is to reduce capacity,&#34; said Barclays' head of European transport equity research Andrew Lobbenberg. &#34;That is what I would expect to see happen this time, and it's what we saw in the previous occasions ‌when we had other crises; people just have to start trimming capacity.&#34; Higher ticket prices United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told ABC News last week that fares would need to rise 20 per cent for the airline to cover the higher fuel costs. Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways has lifted fuel surcharges twice in the last month, and from Wednesday a return trip from Sydney to London will attract an $800 fuel surcharge. Before the Iran conflict, a normal round-trip economy-class fare on the route was roughly A$2,000 ($1,369.60). Low-cost carriers could struggle the most given their passengers are more price-sensitive than the corporate customers and wealthy consumers who have been increasingly targeted by premium rivals like Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, analysts say. &#34;I think for the more price-sensitive travellers, even the short-haul flying trip gets downgraded, potentially to rail or to bus or other alternatives,&#34; said Nathan Gee, Bank of America's head of Asia-Pacific transport research. <h3> Oil shocks</h3> West Asia ​conflict is the fourth oil shock for the airline industry since the turn of the century, though the first in which carriers like Vietnam Airlines have expressed concern about securing ‌physical supplies of fuel due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. There was one in 2007-2008 before the global financial crisis dented demand, another after the Arab Spring around 2011, and a third after the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in 2022. A string of mergers between 2008 and 2014 like Delta-Northwest and American Airlines-US Airways reduced eight major ​US airlines to four and brought ‌on the era of tighter capacity control, while low-cost carriers such as Ryanair and India's IndiGo leaned on single-aircraft fleets and fast turnarounds to keep unit costs low. Replacing older, thirstier planes with ‌more fuel-efficient models is an obvious way for carriers to reduce costs, but a severe supply-chain shortage in the wake of the pandemic and issues with new-generation engines have delayed deliveries. And while US ultra-low-cost carriers have some of the newest, most fuel-efficient planes in the industry, if travel demand falters, paying for the new planes could ‌become a barrier ​to profit. Dan Taylor, ​head of consulting at aviation advisory firm IBA, said the current oil shock was expected to widen the gap between financially strong and weaker airlines. &#34;Carriers with robust balance sheets, strong pricing power, and reliable access to capital are better positioned to absorb ongoing pressures,&#34; he said on the firm's website. &#34;In contrast, airlines with ‌low profitability and limited funding options may ​face increasing financial stress.&#34;</div></div>

美国航天国防股指数 ETF - iShares

能源业 ETF - SPDR

能源业 ETF - Vanguard

全球航空公司正在提高票价并削减运力，以应对飙升的油价，这威胁到盈利能力。该行业此前预测 2026 年将创下 410 亿美元的利润，但不断上涨的航空燃油成本迫使航空公司重新考虑战略。像联合航空和国泰航空这样的航空公司已宣布涨价和燃油附加费。分析师警告，价格敏感的旅客可能会选择铁路或公交等替代交通方式。当前的油价冲击可能会加大财务状况良好的航空公司与较弱航空公司之间的差距，影响它们吸收持续压力的能力

Airlines raise fares, cut capacity as soaring oil prices threaten profits

Business Standard

联合航空

美国石油设备与服务 ETF - iShares

标普交通运输 ETF - SPDR

南方国证交通运输行业ETF

炼油公司指数 ETF - VanEck Vectors

3 倍做多航空业 ETN - MAX

标普航天与国防 ETF - SPDR

全球航空业 ETF - U.S. Global

华夏中证全指运输ETF

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

纳斯达克运输业 ETF - First Trust

标普油气设备与服务 ETF - SPDR

油气服务 ETF - Market Vectors

美国布伦特原油期货基金

道琼斯运输类股平均指数 ETF - iShares

美国油气勘探与生产 ETF - iShares

标普全球能源股指数 ETF - iShares

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

航空国防投资组合 ETF - PowerShares

油气开采 ETF - SPDR

西方石油

英国石油

国泰航空

由于油价飙升威胁到利润，航空公司提高了票价并削减了运力