<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Oil-tankers-navigating-sunlit-waterway.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Oil-tankers-navigating-sunlit-waterway.png"/></p>
<p>自二月底以来，中东冲突导致全球航空燃料价格创下历史新高。</p>
<p>由于伊朗战争持续了一个多月，能源市场经历了相当大的动荡。</p>
<p>自三月初以来，布伦特原油价格上涨了创纪录的 64%，这是一个月内最大的涨幅。</p>
<h2>价格飙升与精炼燃料价差扩大</h2>
<p>由于中东冲突，柴油和航空燃料等石油产品的价格上涨得更加迅猛，这场冲突实际上关闭了霍尔木兹海峡。</p>
<p>霍尔木兹海峡负责全球 20% 的石油和液化天然气贸易流动。</p>
<p>鹿特丹的航空燃料价格达到了前所未有的高点，超过每吨 1,730 美元。</p>
<p>这一价格点表明，自战争开始以来，航空燃料的成本已翻了一番，而柴油的价格在同一时期几乎翻倍。</p>
<p>根据 S&amp;P Global Energy 旗下的 Platts 的评估，3 月 30 日，北欧 CIF 航空燃料货物价格为每吨 1,765 美元。</p>
<p>这一数字是冲突前价格水平的两倍，显著超过 2022 年的峰值 1,475 美元每吨。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，3 月 19 日的最高记录价格为每吨 1,774 美元，距冲突开始三周后。</p>
<p>原油价格的显著上涨伴随着裂解价差的明显扩大，裂解价差是精炼油产品与原油之间的价格差异。</p>
<p>精炼燃料的裂解价差出现了剧烈上涨。柴油裂解价差达到了每桶 56 美元，柴油裂解价差更高，接近每桶 80 美元，而航空燃料裂解价差超过每桶 100 美元。</p>
<p>相比之下，这些价差在战争开始前的二月份显著较低，介于每桶 20 到 30 美元之间。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/image-1-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/image-1-2.png"/></p>
<p>来源：德国商业银行研究</p>
<h2>全球供应短缺与价格预测修正</h2>
<p>石油产品绝对和相对价格的显著上涨源于伊朗冲突造成的供应短缺，以及随之而来的霍尔木兹海峡关闭。</p>
<p>根据国际能源署的估计，去年中东每天出口约 330 万桶精炼石油产品。</p>
<p>中间馏分占中东石油产品出口的三分之一。</p>
<p>国际能源署的月度报告指出，去年的总量包括每天 38 万桶航空燃料和 73 万桶柴油。</p>
<p>欧洲是来自海湾地区航空燃料出口的主要目的地。国际能源署的数据表明，去年对欧洲的供应达到了每天 28 万桶，满足了该大陆 60% 的总进口需求。</p>
<p>其他大部分供应来自亚洲。然而，该地区现在也面临短缺，正如中国所示，已经导致出口限制。</p>
<p>德国商业银行已上调航空燃料价格预测，原因是中东冲突仍在继续。</p>
<p>预计到年中，航空燃料价格将达到每吨 1,250 美元，年底将下降至每吨 950 美元。</p>
<p>“在我们的基本情景中，我们假设战争将在春末结束，因此预计价格会再次下降，但柴油和航空燃料价格在年底仍将显著高于战争开始前的水平，” 德国商业银行分析师表示。</p>
<p>与此同时，为了应对油价的急剧上涨，全球航空公司已开始提高票价并减少运力。</p>
<p>然而，行业的持续盈利能力可能取决于消费者是否会因汽油价格上涨而减少航空旅行，这对家庭预算造成压力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/image-1-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/image-1-3.png"/></p>
<p>来源：德国商业银行研究</p>
<h2>航空公司应对燃料成本</h2>
<p>根据路透社的报道，航空业预计 2026 年将创下 410 亿美元的利润，现在面临风险。</p>
<p>这一变化发生在上个月美国与以色列与伊朗的冲突之后，导致航空燃料价格翻倍，迫使航空公司重新评估其战略和网络。</p>
<p>包括联合航空、新西兰航空和斯堪的纳维亚航空在内的几家航空公司已通过实施运力削减和提高票价来应对当前形势；其他航空公司则选择征收燃油附加费。</p>
<p>尽管持续的供应链挑战影响了新飞机的交付，但该行业在 2025 年实现了全球乘客流量的创纪录增长。这一流量显著反弹，达到了疫情前水平的约 9%。</p>
<p>航空公司享有显著的定价权，填满了更多的座位，并利用了创纪录的疫情后旅行需求与持续的供应链问题的结合，这限制了运力增长。</p>
<p>然而，为了抵消航空燃料成本的急剧上涨，所需的价格上涨幅度是相当大的。这正值消费者已经面临更高汽油价格的艰难时刻，可能被迫减少可自由支配的支出，从而可能抑制近期航空旅行的增长。</p>
<p>与此同时，3 月 31 日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在他的 TruthSocial 账户上发文，呼吁面临航空燃料供应问题的国家向美国炼油商购买，或者选择 “直接从中东湾拿走”。</p>
<p>“所有那些因为霍尔木兹海峡无法获得航空燃料的国家，比如拒绝参与伊朗斩首行动的英国，我有个建议：第一，向美国购买，我们有很多；第二，鼓起一些勇气，去霍尔木兹海峡，直接拿走，” 特朗普说道。</p>
<p>在 2025 年，美国是欧洲市场精炼产品的主要来源。然而，S&amp;P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS) 的数据显示，美国在航空燃料供应商中排名显著较低，整体排名第七。</p>
<p>具体而言，美国炼油厂去年向欧洲出口了大约 16,000 桶/天的航空燃料，占该大陆航空燃料总流入量的约 3%。</p>
<p>根据 S&amp;P Global Energy CERA 的分析师数据，2025 年，美国是航空燃料的净出口国，出口量约比进口量多出 70,000 桶/天。加勒比地区是这些出口的主要接收方，送往欧洲的数量相对较少。</p>
<p>根据 CAS 数据，2025 年，英国是美国航空燃料的最大买家，占所有交付量的近 70%。紧随其后的是荷兰，西班牙和冰岛也位列主要买家之中。</p>
<p>中东冲突后，航空燃料价格翻倍；全球航空公司利润缩水，首发于 Invezz。</p>

中国国航

南方航空

达美航空

<p>中东持续的冲突导致全球航空燃料价格创下新高，自三月以来布伦特原油上涨了 64%。鹿特丹的航空燃料价格已超过每吨 1,730 美元，是战争前水平的两倍多。冲突扰乱了供应，特别是霍尔木兹海峡的运输，影响了全球石油贸易。航空公司因此提高票价并减少运力，危及预期利润。德国商业银行预测，到年中航空燃料价格将达到每吨 1,250 美元，年末可能会有所下降，但仍高于冲突前的水平</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Oil-tankers-navigating-sunlit-waterway.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Oil-tankers-navigating-sunlit-waterway.png"/></p>
<p>The Middle East conflict that started in late February has led to a record jump in global jet fuel prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自二月底以来，中东冲突导致全球航空燃料价格创下历史新高。</p>
</div><p>The energy markets have experienced considerable disruption due to the war in Iran, which has been in progress for more than a month now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于伊朗战争持续了一个多月，能源市场经历了相当大的动荡。</p>
</div><p>The price of Brent crude rose by a record 64% since the beginning of March, its biggest gain in a month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自三月初以来，布伦特原油价格上涨了创纪录的 64%，这是一个月内最大的涨幅。</p>
</div><h2>Record price surge and widening refined fuel spreads</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>价格飙升与精炼燃料价差扩大</h2>
</div><p>Prices for oil products such as diesel and jet fuel have risen even more sharply due to the conflict in the Middle East, which has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于中东冲突，柴油和航空燃料等石油产品的价格上涨得更加迅猛，这场冲突实际上关闭了霍尔木兹海峡。</p>
</div><p>The Strait is responsible for 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas trade flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍尔木兹海峡负责全球 20% 的石油和液化天然气贸易流动。</p>
</div><p>The price of jet fuel in Rotterdam reached an unprecedented high, exceeding $1,730 per ton.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鹿特丹的航空燃料价格达到了前所未有的高点，超过每吨 1,730 美元。</p>
</div><p>This price point signifies that the cost of jet fuel has more than doubled since the war began, whereas the price of diesel has nearly doubled over the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一价格点表明，自战争开始以来，航空燃料的成本已翻了一番，而柴油的价格在同一时期几乎翻倍。</p>
</div><p>CIF Northwest European jet fuel cargo prices were assessed by Platts, a division of S&amp;P Global Energy, at $1,765 per ton on March 30.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 S&amp;P Global Energy 旗下的 Platts 的评估，3 月 30 日，北欧 CIF 航空燃料货物价格为每吨 1,765 美元。</p>
</div><p>This figure is more than double the price levels seen before the conflict and significantly exceeds the 2022 peak of $1,475 per ton.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一数字是冲突前价格水平的两倍，显著超过 2022 年的峰值 1,475 美元每吨。</p>
</div><p>Notably, the highest recorded price was $1,774 per ton on March 19, which was three weeks after the conflict began.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，3 月 19 日的最高记录价格为每吨 1,774 美元，距冲突开始三周后。</p>
</div><p>The significant increase in crude oil prices was accompanied by a marked widening of crack spreads, which are the price differentials between refined oil products and crude oil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油价格的显著上涨伴随着裂解价差的明显扩大，裂解价差是精炼油产品与原油之间的价格差异。</p>
</div><p>The crack spreads for refined fuels saw a dramatic surge. The gasoil crack spread peaked at $56 per barrel. The diesel crack spread climbed even higher, reaching almost $80 per barrel, while the jet fuel crack spread exceeded $100 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>精炼燃料的裂解价差出现了剧烈上涨。柴油裂解价差达到了每桶 56 美元，柴油裂解价差更高，接近每桶 80 美元，而航空燃料裂解价差超过每桶 100 美元。</p>
</div><p>For comparison, these spreads were significantly lower—between $20 and $30 per barrel—in February, before the war started.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，这些价差在战争开始前的二月份显著较低，介于每桶 20 到 30 美元之间。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/image-1-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/image-1-2.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Commerzbank Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：德国商业银行研究</p>
</div><h2>Global supply deficit and revised price forecasts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>全球供应短缺与价格预测修正</h2>
</div><p>The significant increase in both the absolute and relative prices of oil products stems from the supply deficit created by the conflict in Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>石油产品绝对和相对价格的显著上涨源于伊朗冲突造成的供应短缺，以及随之而来的霍尔木兹海峡关闭。</p>
</div><p>Last year, the Middle East exported approximately 3.3 million barrels of refined oil products daily, based on estimates from the International Energy Agency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据国际能源署的估计，去年中东每天出口约 330 万桶精炼石油产品。</p>
</div><p>Middle distillates account for another third of oil product exports from the Middle East.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中间馏分占中东石油产品出口的三分之一。</p>
</div><p>The IEA's monthly report indicated that last year's total included 380,000 barrels per day of jet fuel and 730,000 barrels per day of gasoil/diesel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际能源署的月度报告指出，去年的总量包括每天 38 万桶航空燃料和 73 万桶柴油。</p>
</div><p>Europe was the primary destination for jet fuel exports from the Gulf. Data from the IEA indicated that last year, supplies to Europe reached 280,000 barrels per day, satisfying 60% of the continent's total import needs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲是来自海湾地区航空燃料出口的主要目的地。国际能源署的数据表明，去年对欧洲的供应达到了每天 28 万桶，满足了该大陆 60% 的总进口需求。</p>
</div><p>Most of the other supplies were sourced from Asia. However, this region is now also experiencing shortages, which, as demonstrated in China, have already led to export restrictions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他大部分供应来自亚洲。然而，该地区现在也面临短缺，正如中国所示，已经导致出口限制。</p>
</div><p>Commerzbank AG has raised the forecast for jet fuel prices upwards due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国商业银行已上调航空燃料价格预测，原因是中东冲突仍在继续。</p>
</div><p>Jet fuel is projected to cost $1,250 per ton by mid-year, with a subsequent decrease to $950 per ton by year-end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计到年中，航空燃料价格将达到每吨 1,250 美元，年底将下降至每吨 950 美元。</p>
</div><p>“In our base-case scenario, in which we assume the war will end in late spring and therefore expect prices to fall again, diesel and jet fuel prices would still be significantly higher at the end of the year than they were before the war began,” Commerzbank analysts said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在我们的基本情景中，我们假设战争将在春末结束，因此预计价格会再次下降，但柴油和航空燃料价格在年底仍将显著高于战争开始前的水平，” 德国商业银行分析师表示。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, to counter the abrupt rise in oil prices, airlines worldwide have started raising fares and reducing capacity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，为了应对油价的急剧上涨，全球航空公司已开始提高票价并减少运力。</p>
</div><p>However, the industry's continued profitability may hinge on whether consumers reduce air travel in response to rising gasoline costs that are squeezing household budgets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，行业的持续盈利能力可能取决于消费者是否会因汽油价格上涨而减少航空旅行，这对家庭预算造成压力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/image-1-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/image-1-3.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Commerzbank Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：德国商业银行研究</p>
</div><h2>Airlines respond to fuel costs</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>航空公司应对燃料成本</h2>
</div><p>The airline industry's projection of record $41 billion profits for 2026 is now jeopardised, according to a Reuters report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据路透社的报道，航空业预计 2026 年将创下 410 亿美元的利润，现在面临风险。</p>
</div><p>This shift follows the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which began last month and caused jet fuel prices to double, compelling carriers to reassess their strategies and networks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一变化发生在上个月美国与以色列与伊朗的冲突之后，导致航空燃料价格翻倍，迫使航空公司重新评估其战略和网络。</p>
</div><p>Several carriers, including United Airlines, Air New Zealand, and Scandinavia's SAS, have responded to current conditions by implementing capacity reductions and raising fares; other airlines have opted to impose fuel surcharges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>包括联合航空、新西兰航空和斯堪的纳维亚航空在内的几家航空公司已通过实施运力削减和提高票价来应对当前形势；其他航空公司则选择征收燃油附加费。</p>
</div><p>Despite persistent supply-chain challenges that impacted new plane deliveries, the industry achieved a record-breaking year for global passenger traffic in 2025. This traffic rebounded significantly, reaching approximately 9% above pre-pandemic levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管持续的供应链挑战影响了新飞机的交付，但该行业在 2025 年实现了全球乘客流量的创纪录增长。这一流量显著反弹，达到了疫情前水平的约 9%。</p>
</div><p>Airlines have enjoyed significant pricing power, filling more seats and capitalising on a combination of record post-pandemic travel demand and persistent supply-chain issues that limited capacity growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>航空公司享有显著的定价权，填满了更多的座位，并利用了创纪录的疫情后旅行需求与持续的供应链问题的结合，这限制了运力增长。</p>
</div><p>However, the required price increases to offset the sharp surge in jet fuel costs are substantial. This comes at a challenging time, as consumers, already facing higher gasoline prices, may be forced to reduce discretionary spending, potentially curbing the recent growth in air travel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，为了抵消航空燃料成本的急剧上涨，所需的价格上涨幅度是相当大的。这正值消费者已经面临更高汽油价格的艰难时刻，可能被迫减少可自由支配的支出，从而可能抑制近期航空旅行的增长。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, on March 31, US President Donald Trump posted on his TruthSocial account, urging nations experiencing jet fuel supply issues to purchase from American refiners or, alternatively, to &#34;just take it&#34; from the Middle East Gulf.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，3 月 31 日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在他的 TruthSocial 账户上发文，呼吁面临航空燃料供应问题的国家向美国炼油商购买，或者选择 “直接从中东湾拿走”。</p>
</div><p>&#34;All of those countries that can't get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the US, we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT,&#34; Trump said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“所有那些因为霍尔木兹海峡无法获得航空燃料的国家，比如拒绝参与伊朗斩首行动的英国，我有个建议：第一，向美国购买，我们有很多；第二，鼓起一些勇气，去霍尔木兹海峡，直接拿走，” 特朗普说道。</p>
</div><p>In 2025, the US was the top source of refined products for the European market. However, S&amp;P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS) data indicated that the US ranked significantly lower, seventh overall, as a supplier of jet fuel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，美国是欧洲市场精炼产品的主要来源。然而，S&amp;P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS) 的数据显示，美国在航空燃料供应商中排名显著较低，整体排名第七。</p>
</div><p>Specifically, US refineries exported approximately 16,000 barrels per day of jet fuel to Europe last year, which represented about 3% of the total jet fuel inflows to the continent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>具体而言，美国炼油厂去年向欧洲出口了大约 16,000 桶/天的航空燃料，占该大陆航空燃料总流入量的约 3%。</p>
</div><p>In 2025, the US was a net exporter of jet fuel, shipping out approximately 70,000 barrels per day more than it imported, according to analysts at S&amp;P Global Energy CERA. The Caribbean was the primary recipient of these exports, with only comparatively small volumes being sent to Europe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 S&amp;P Global Energy CERA 的分析师数据，2025 年，美国是航空燃料的净出口国，出口量约比进口量多出 70,000 桶/天。加勒比地区是这些出口的主要接收方，送往欧洲的数量相对较少。</p>
</div><p>The UK was the largest purchaser of US jet fuel in 2025, according to CAS data, representing nearly 70% of all delivered volumes. Following the UK, the Netherlands was the second-biggest buyer, with Spain and Iceland also ranking among the top purchasers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CAS 数据，2025 年，英国是美国航空燃料的最大买家，占所有交付量的近 70%。紧随其后的是荷兰，西班牙和冰岛也位列主要买家之中。</p>
</div><p>The post Mideast conflict doubles jet fuel prices; global airlines see profits shrink appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中东冲突后，航空燃料价格翻倍；全球航空公司利润缩水，首发于 Invezz。</p>
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Mideast conflict doubles jet fuel prices; global airlines see profits shrink

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西南航空

中国南方航空股份

美国航空

中国东航

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标普交通运输 ETF - SPDR

炼油公司指数 ETF - VanEck Vectors

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Themes Airlines ETF

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Leverage Shares 2X Long AAL Daily ETF

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汇添富中证油气资源ETF

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道琼斯运输类股平均指数 ETF - iShares

Shell plc ADRhedged

中东地区的冲突使得喷气燃料价格翻倍，全球航空公司的利润因此缩减