<p>伊朗战争的波动使金融股被 “连同洗澡水一起扔掉”。这给了我们一个很好的 “再次购买” 的机会，购买我最喜欢的以金融为重点的股息。</p>
<p>那就是 <strong>John Hancock Financial Opportunities Fund (BTO)</strong>，今天的收益率为 7.7%，正如我们将看到的，它的交易折扣是大多数投资者认为的两倍。</p>
<p><strong>为什么 2026 年 4 月可能会重演 2025 年 4 月（但反弹更快）</strong></p>
<p>要了解我为什么认为市场在金融股方面犯了错误，我们需要回顾去年，当时股票因所谓的 “解放日” 关税而大幅下跌。</p>
<p><strong>从 2025 年春季的抛售开始...</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2025.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2025.png"/></p>
<p>到目前为止，这次抛售实际上看起来与这次非常相似，深度也相似：</p>
<p><strong>... 与 2026 年的 “双胞胎”</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2026-Chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2026-Chart.png"/></p>
<p>我真正想引起你注意的是：在 2025 年，金融行业——在下面以紫色显示的基准 ETF，并没有像市场其他部分那样大幅下跌，并在反弹中大幅上涨：</p>
<p><strong>金融在 2025 年的暴跌中超越了标准普尔 500 指数...</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/XLF-2025.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/XLF-2025.png"/></p>
<p>快进到今年，金融股在伊朗战争的影响下受到的打击更大，自年初以来下跌幅度远超市场。</p>
<p><strong>... 这次看起来像是一个蓄势待发的弹簧</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/XLF-2026.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/XLF-2026.png"/></p>
<p>在我看来，这种情况过于严重，使该行业在今年有更强的反弹潜力。这是因为，这两次抛售的核心问题都是：通货膨胀。去年，驱动因素被认为是关税。今年，则是油价。</p>
<p>去年，很难判断哪些行业能够获胜，因为政府对从木材到汽车零部件的所有商品都征收了关税。今年，确定赢家就容易多了：油股，已经大幅上涨。</p>
<p>当然，这艘船对我们来说已经驶离，我们从不追逐交易。但金融行业正在成为我们在这里的 “仍然折扣” 的投资，因为它有望受益于直接源于油价飙升的两个趋势。</p>
<p>首先，持续的油价波动几乎是必然的，无论战争何时结束，这将推动银行的商品交易收入上升。如果高油价成为 “新常态”，油气生产商（大多数通常对增加产量持谨慎态度）最终将扩大产量——当然会寻求融资。</p>
<p>然后还有一个很少有投资者考虑的第三个角度。</p>
<p><strong>航空公司燃料对冲可能会迎来复苏</strong></p>
<p>多年前，航空公司使用石油衍生合同来对冲其能源价格风险。中介（换句话说，就是银行）为此收取费用，还有其他参与者，如对冲基金。但这些项目的运营成本很高，因此大多数航空公司在过去十年中已经停止了对冲计划。</p>
<p>但现在似乎他们在考虑再次这样做：</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>“美国航空公司早已放弃了对冲燃料成本的做法。随着美国 - 以色列对伊朗的打击后油价飙升，如果冲突持续数月，价格保持高位，他们可能会面临巨大的利润损失。”</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>这份 3 月 6 日的路透社报告告诉我们，未来可能会对期权有更多需求，这对整个金融行业来说是个好消息。</p>
<p>这让我回到 BTO，截至目前，它的总回报基本持平（如下图橙色部分所示），相比于金融行业整体超过 11% 的下跌：</p>
<p><strong>BTO 的跌幅小于金融行业...</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Outperforms.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Outperforms.png"/></p>
<p>在这种环境下，我们希望看到的就是这种韧性。</p>
<p>而事情变得有趣的是：尽管它的表现优于行业，BTO 在另一个关键指标上仍然是个便宜货：净资产价值（NAV，或其基础投资组合的价值）的折扣。</p>
<p><strong>... 同时保持其折扣</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Discount-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Discount-1.png"/></p>
<p>如上所示，该基金现在的交易折扣略低于 2%。而这个折扣在实际意义上要大得多，因为 BTO 的估值通常远高于面值，在过去五年中平均溢价为 3.9%。实际上，你可以在上面的图表中看到，它在六个月前大约在那个水平。</p>
<p>BTO 还值得注意的是，它主要持有地区性银行，尽管它们可能不会像航空燃料对冲那样受到影响，但随着整个行业前景的改善，它们将受益。位于密西西比州海湾港的 <strong>Hancock Whitney (HWC)</strong> 是 BTO 的第七大持股，预计表现会更好。</p>
<p>此外，地区性银行让我们能够更好地在行业内进行多样化，同时保持对美国的关注，美国是全球最大的石油生产国，占 BTO 投资组合的 95%。</p>
<p>地区性银行在整个行业受到影响的情况下被卷入下跌，为我们提供了以 7.7% 的收益率获得 BTO 的机会，以及 “看起来比实际更大” 的折扣。通过这种方式，我们为更高的收入和潜在的收益做好了准备，因为该折扣将回升到溢价，回到它应有的位置。</p>
<p><strong>5 个 “连同洗澡水一起扔掉” 的每月股息，收益率为 9.7%</strong></p>
<p>在这样的时刻，逐渐增长的 7.7% 股息可以给我们带来很多安心。但 CEF 的美妙之处在于，我们可以获得更高的股息——并且每月支付给我们。</p>
<p>这当然与我们的每月账单相符。如果你想再投资，那就太好了！每月的支付让你可以更快地进行再投资。</p>
<p>基于所有这些原因（还有更多！），我敦促所有投资者现在仔细看看我 “9.7% 每月股息投资组合” 中的 5 个便宜 CEF。</p>
<p>正如名称所示，这 5 只基金每月支付 9.7% 的收益（或 <strong>每投资 50 万美元每月$4,042</strong>）到您的账户中。</p>
<p>更重要的是，由于当前的波动性，这些基金现在的净资产价值（NAV）折扣很大。这使我们能够锁定高平均收益，并为未来的收益打开了大门，因为这些不寻常的折扣将迅速消失。</p>
<p>时间至关重要，我不希望您错过这些高收益的每月支付基金。<strong>点击这里，我将告诉您更多信息，并提供一份免费的特别报告，揭示它们的名称和代码</strong> <strong>。</strong></p>
<h5>另见：</h5>
<p> 沃伦·巴菲特的股息股票</p>
<p> 股息增长股票：25 位贵族</p>
<p> 未来的股息贵族：紧随其后者</p>
<p>此处表达的观点和意见是作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点。</p>

<p>约翰汉考克金融机会基金（BTO）提供 7.7% 的股息，在当前因伊朗战争导致的市场波动中，呈现出逆势买入的机会。金融行业受到的不成比例影响，但历史趋势表明有潜在反弹的可能。BTO 表现出韧性，交易价格低于其净资产价值，并且在增加商品交易收入和潜在航空燃料对冲需求方面处于良好位置。该基金主要投资于地区银行，随着市场条件的改善，这些银行可能会蓬勃发展</p>

<p>Iran War volatility has tossed finance stocks &#34;out with the bathwater.&#34; It's giving us a nice &#34;second chance to buy&#34; my favorite finance-focused dividend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗战争的波动使金融股被 “连同洗澡水一起扔掉”。这给了我们一个很好的 “再次购买” 的机会，购买我最喜欢的以金融为重点的股息。</p>
</div><p>That would be the <strong>John Hancock Financial Opportunities Fund (BTO)</strong>, which yields 7.7% today and, as we'll see, trades at a discount that's double what most investors think it is.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那就是 <strong>John Hancock Financial Opportunities Fund (BTO)</strong>，今天的收益率为 7.7%，正如我们将看到的，它的交易折扣是大多数投资者认为的两倍。</p>
</div><p><strong>Why April 2026 Could Be April 2025 Redux (But With a Faster Rebound)</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>为什么 2026 年 4 月可能会重演 2025 年 4 月（但反弹更快）</strong></p>
</div><p>To see why I think the market is making a mistake when it comes to finance stocks, let's rewind to last year, when stocks sold off on the so-called &#34;Liberation Day&#34; tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要了解我为什么认为市场在金融股方面犯了错误，我们需要回顾去年，当时股票因所谓的 “解放日” 关税而大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p><strong>From the Spring 2025 Selloff ...</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>从 2025 年春季的抛售开始...</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2025.png" alt="" original-src="https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2025.png"/></p>
<p>That selloff has actually looked a lot like this one so far, with a similar depth:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，这次抛售实际上看起来与这次非常相似，深度也相似：</p>
</div><p><strong>... to Its 2026 &#34;Twin&#34;</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>... 与 2026 年的 “双胞胎”</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2026-Chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2026-Chart.png"/></p>
<p>Here's what I really want to draw your attention to: In 2025, the finance sector--shown by its benchmark ETF in purple below, didn't fall as hard as the rest of the market, and soared on the other side:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我真正想引起你注意的是：在 2025 年，金融行业——在下面以紫色显示的基准 ETF，并没有像市场其他部分那样大幅下跌，并在反弹中大幅上涨：</p>
</div><p><strong>Finance Beat the S&amp;P 500 in the 2025 Plunge ...</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>金融在 2025 年的暴跌中超越了标准普尔 500 指数...</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/XLF-2025.png" alt="" original-src="https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/XLF-2025.png"/></p>
<p>Fast-forward to this year, and finance stocks are being hit harder in the Iran War fallout, falling much further than the market since the start of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>快进到今年，金融股在伊朗战争的影响下受到的打击更大，自年初以来下跌幅度远超市场。</p>
</div><p><strong>... And Looks Like a Coiled Spring This Time Around</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>... 这次看起来像是一个蓄势待发的弹簧</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/XLF-2026.png" alt="" original-src="https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/XLF-2026.png"/></p>
<p>That's excessive, in my view, and positions the sector for a stronger rebound this year. That's because, at their core, both of these selloffs are about one thing: inflation. Last year, the driver was thought to be tariffs. This year, it's oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，这种情况过于严重，使该行业在今年有更强的反弹潜力。这是因为，这两次抛售的核心问题都是：通货膨胀。去年，驱动因素被认为是关税。今年，则是油价。</p>
</div><p>And last year, it was hard to tell which sectors could win as the administration brought in tariffs on everything from lumber to car parts. This year, it's easier to peg a winner: oil stocks, which have already surged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，很难判断哪些行业能够获胜，因为政府对从木材到汽车零部件的所有商品都征收了关税。今年，确定赢家就容易多了：油股，已经大幅上涨。</p>
</div><p>That ship, of course, has already sailed for us, and we never chase trades at <em>CEF Insider</em> <em>.</em> But finance is setting up to be our <em>still-discounted</em> play here, as it's poised to benefit from two trends stemming directly from the oil-price surge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，这艘船对我们来说已经驶离，我们从不追逐交易。但金融行业正在成为我们在这里的 “仍然折扣” 的投资，因为它有望受益于直接源于油价飙升的两个趋势。</p>
</div><p>First, continued oil-price volatility--almost certain, no matter when the war ends--will drive higher commodities-trading revenue for banks. And if higher oil becomes a &#34;new normal,&#34; oil producers (most of whom are generally cautious about committing to higher production) will eventually expand output--and will of course look for financing to do so.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，持续的油价波动几乎是必然的，无论战争何时结束，这将推动银行的商品交易收入上升。如果高油价成为 “新常态”，油气生产商（大多数通常对增加产量持谨慎态度）最终将扩大产量——当然会寻求融资。</p>
</div><p>And then there's a <em>third</em> angle few investors have even thought of.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后还有一个很少有投资者考虑的第三个角度。</p>
</div><p><strong>Airline-Fuel Hedging Could Be Set for a Comeback</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>航空公司燃料对冲可能会迎来复苏</strong></p>
</div><p>Years ago, airlines used derivative contracts on oil to hedge their exposure to energy prices. Intermediaries (banks, in other words) took a fee for this, alongside other players, like hedge funds. But these programs were expensive to run, so most airlines have wound down their hedging programs over the last decade or so.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年前，航空公司使用石油衍生合同来对冲其能源价格风险。中介（换句话说，就是银行）为此收取费用，还有其他参与者，如对冲基金。但这些项目的运营成本很高，因此大多数航空公司在过去十年中已经停止了对冲计划。</p>
</div><p>But now it seems they're thinking about doing it again:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但现在似乎他们在考虑再次这样做：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p><em>&#34;US airlines abandoned the practice of hedging against fuel costs long ago. With oil prices surging following US-Israel strikes ?on Iran, they could be looking at a big bite out of their bottom line in the event of a lengthy conflict that keeps prices elevated for months.&#34;</em></p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p><em>“美国航空公司早已放弃了对冲燃料成本的做法。随着美国 - 以色列对伊朗的打击后油价飙升，如果冲突持续数月，价格保持高位，他们可能会面临巨大的利润损失。”</em></p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>This March 6 report from Reuters tells us that there may be more demand for options in the future, which is good news for the financial sector broadly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这份 3 月 6 日的路透社报告告诉我们，未来可能会对期权有更多需求，这对整个金融行业来说是个好消息。</p>
</div><p>Which brings me back to BTO, which is roughly flat this year (shown in orange below), on a total-return basis as of this writing, compared to the more than 11% decline we've seen from the financial sector as a whole:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这让我回到 BTO，截至目前，它的总回报基本持平（如下图橙色部分所示），相比于金融行业整体超过 11% 的下跌：</p>
</div><p><strong>BTO Falls Less Than Finance ...</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>BTO 的跌幅小于金融行业...</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Outperforms.png" alt="" original-src="https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Outperforms.png"/></p>
<p>That's the kind of resilience we want to see from a CEF in this environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种环境下，我们希望看到的就是这种韧性。</p>
</div><p>And here's where things get interesting: Even though it's held up better than the sector, BTO has remained a bargain by another key metric: the discount to net asset value (NAV, or the value of its underlying portfolio).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而事情变得有趣的是：尽管它的表现优于行业，BTO 在另一个关键指标上仍然是个便宜货：净资产价值（NAV，或其基础投资组合的价值）的折扣。</p>
</div><p><strong>... While Keeping Its Discount</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>... 同时保持其折扣</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Discount-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Discount-1.png"/></p>
<p>As you can see above, the fund now trades at a bit less than a 2% discount. And that discount is actually much larger in real terms, because BTO's valuation is normally well above par, averaging a 3.9% premium over the last five years. Indeed, you can see in the chart above that it's fallen from around that level just six months ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上所示，该基金现在的交易折扣略低于 2%。而这个折扣在实际意义上要大得多，因为 BTO 的估值通常远高于面值，在过去五年中平均溢价为 3.9%。实际上，你可以在上面的图表中看到，它在六个月前大约在那个水平。</p>
</div><p>BTO is also notable in that it holds mainly regional banks, and while they may not be as exposed to things like airline fuel hedging, they stand to gain on improving prospects across the sector as a whole. Those in energy-producing areas are likely to do better, like <strong>Hancock Whitney (HWC)</strong>, BTO's No. 7 holding, based in Gulfport, Mississippi.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BTO 还值得注意的是，它主要持有地区性银行，尽管它们可能不会像航空燃料对冲那样受到影响，但随着整个行业前景的改善，它们将受益。位于密西西比州海湾港的 <strong>Hancock Whitney (HWC)</strong> 是 BTO 的第七大持股，预计表现会更好。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, regionals let us better diversify across the sector, while keeping our focus on the US, the world's largest oil producer, which accounts for 95% of BTO's portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，地区性银行让我们能够更好地在行业内进行多样化，同时保持对美国的关注，美国是全球最大的石油生产国，占 BTO 投资组合的 95%。</p>
</div><p>The fact that regionals have been caught in the downdraft that's affected the whole sector is an opportunity for us to get BTO at a 7.7% yield <em>and</em> that &#34;larger-than-it-looks&#34; discount. This way, we're setting ourselves up for higher income and potential gains as that markdown moves back to a premium, where it belongs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>地区性银行在整个行业受到影响的情况下被卷入下跌，为我们提供了以 7.7% 的收益率获得 BTO 的机会，以及 “看起来比实际更大” 的折扣。通过这种方式，我们为更高的收入和潜在的收益做好了准备，因为该折扣将回升到溢价，回到它应有的位置。</p>
</div><p><strong>5 More &#34;Tossed With the Bathwater&#34; Monthly Dividends Yielding 9.7%</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>5 个 “连同洗澡水一起扔掉” 的每月股息，收益率为 9.7%</strong></p>
</div><p>In times like these, a growing 7.7% dividend can bring us a lot of peace of mind. But the beauty of CEFs is we can get dividends that are even higher--and pay us every month, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这样的时刻，逐渐增长的 7.7% 股息可以给我们带来很多安心。但 CEF 的美妙之处在于，我们可以获得更高的股息——并且每月支付给我们。</p>
</div><p>That's right in line with our monthly bills, of course. And if you want to reinvest, great! Monthly payouts let you do so even faster.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这当然与我们的每月账单相符。如果你想再投资，那就太好了！每月的支付让你可以更快地进行再投资。</p>
</div><p>For all of these reasons (and more!) I'm urging all investors to take a close look at the 5 bargain CEFs in my &#34;9.7% Monthly Dividend Portfolio&#34; now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于所有这些原因（还有更多！），我敦促所有投资者现在仔细看看我 “9.7% 每月股息投资组合” 中的 5 个便宜 CEF。</p>
</div><p>As the name says, these 5 funds drop 9.7% payouts (or <strong>$4,042 a month on every $500K invested</strong>) into your account.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如名称所示，这 5 只基金每月支付 9.7% 的收益（或 <strong>每投资 50 万美元每月$4,042</strong>）到您的账户中。</p>
</div><p>What's more, these funds sport big discounts to NAV now, thanks to current volatility. That lets us lock in that high average payout and opens the door to future gains as these unusual discounts slam shut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，由于当前的波动性，这些基金现在的净资产价值（NAV）折扣很大。这使我们能够锁定高平均收益，并为未来的收益打开了大门，因为这些不寻常的折扣将迅速消失。</p>
</div><p>Time is of the essence here, and I don't want you to miss out on these high-yielding monthly payers. <strong>Click here and I'll tell you more about them and give you a free Special Report revealing their names and tickers</strong> <strong>.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>时间至关重要，我不希望您错过这些高收益的每月支付基金。<strong>点击这里，我将告诉您更多信息，并提供一份免费的特别报告，揭示它们的名称和代码</strong> <strong>。</strong></p>
</div><h5>Also see:</h5>
<div class="lb-trans"><h5>另见：</h5>
</div><p> Warren Buffett Dividend Stocks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p> 沃伦·巴菲特的股息股票</p>
</div><p> Dividend Growth Stocks: 25 Aristocrats</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p> 股息增长股票：25 位贵族</p>
</div><p> Future Dividend Aristocrats: Close Contenders</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p> 未来的股息贵族：紧随其后者</p>
</div><p>The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此处表达的观点和意见是作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点。</p>
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Forget Oil Stocks: This 7.7% Dividend Is a Smart Contrarian Buy Now

忘记石油股票：这个 7.7% 的股息现在是一个明智的逆向买入选择