<p>由于美国劳动力市场的强劲数据促使交易员减少对美联储今年降息的押注，国债收益率下跌。</p>
<p>周五缩短的交易时段内，收益率上升了三到五个基点，以政策敏感的两年期国债为首。交易员们抹去了对美联储今年降息的最后押注，在报告发布前，他们仅预计约四个基点的降息。</p>
<p>TJM Institutional Services LLC 的利率策略师表示：“美联储在 6 月之前，甚至更长时间内保持不变的可能性越来越大。这是冲突前的数据，但无论如何显示出更高的基线。”</p>
<p>最新的就业报告显示，3 月份美国就业市场呈现出积极的局面，失业率意外下降。</p>
<p>但在 31 万亿美元的国债市场中，焦点仍然集中在中东的冲突上。债券投资者在与战争驱动的能源价格飙升相关的增长和通胀担忧之间左右为难。</p>
<p>自 2 月底美国对伊朗发动攻击以来，收益率大致跟随油价的上涨，因为人们对潜在的通胀复苏可能导致美联储推迟任何降息的风险感到担忧。</p>
<p>在复活节假期前，油市交易在周五关闭，三艘广播阿曼所有权的油轮似乎通过紧贴其本国海岸线的方式出现在霍尔木兹海峡。</p>
<p>在 2 月 28 日战争开始之前，隔夜指数掉期已定价超过两次 25 个基点的降息预期。这些预期随后被抹去，交易员们开始定价美联储下一步可能是加息。最近，市场预计美联储将在 2026 年保持不变。</p>
<p>美国中央银行去年因就业市场疲软三次降息。它们在 1 月份暂停了降息，理由是该领域有所改善。自那时以来，美国劳工部 1 月份的月度就业报告强于预期，而 2 月份的数据则显示出疲软。</p>
<p>3 月份的报告——显示非农就业人数增长幅度为 2024 年底以来最大——不太可能对美国政策制定者产生重大影响，Jefferies 的首席美国经济学家在给客户的报告中写道。</p>
<p>他写道：“这些数据大多是向后的，可能没有考虑到最近能源价格上涨的影响，或与伊朗战争相关的其他风险。就目前而言，没有任何迹象表明他们需要尽快采取行动。”</p>
<p>在数据发布后，美元对主要货币上涨，随后在美国收益率从会话高点回落时削减了涨幅。</p>
<p>最近在国债中积累的空头头寸在最近的交易中被稀释，交易员们对短期通胀压力带来的增长冲击进行对冲。在国债期权中，交易员们在周末前对收益率下跌的保护需求增加，因为他们准备在周一现金市场重新开放时可能出现的下跌缺口。</p>
<p>在就业报告发布前，摩根大通的利率策略师在 3 月 20 日建议以 3.891% 的利率购买两年期国债，以防强劲数据削弱对美联储今年降息的预期。</p>
<p>周五，二年期国债收益率上升了五个基点，达到 3.85%，而十年期证券的收益率上升至 4.35%，交易定于纽约时间中午 12 点结束。</p>
<p>Brean Capital LLC 的固定收益策略负责人表示：“这应该减轻人们对油价冲击前劳动力市场基本状况的担忧。之前的通胀担忧使市场收益率上升至美联储保持不变的新预期，而这些数据 ‘重申了这一观点’。”</p>
<p>然而，他表示，关于油价冲击在未来几个月将对经济产生多大影响仍然存在不确定性。“一切都变得更贵，收入的增长速度并不像以前那样。”</p>

彭博美元指数 做多 - WisdomTree

20 年期以上美国国债 ETF - iShares

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美国中期国债 ETF - iShares

美国短期国债指数 ETF - iShares

<p>美国国债下跌，因为强劲的劳动力市场数据导致交易员降低了对美联储今年降息的预期。收益率上升了三到五个基点，尤其是两年期国债。就业报告显示失业率下降，但由于油价上涨和地缘政治紧张局势，通胀的担忧依然存在。分析师建议美联储可能会在 6 月之前维持利率不变，市场预期也转向可能的加息而非降息。美元最初上涨，但随着收益率波动，随后回落</p>

<p>Treasuries fell as a solid reading of the US labor market prompted traders to reduce bets the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于美国劳动力市场的强劲数据促使交易员减少对美联储今年降息的押注，国债收益率下跌。</p>
</div><p>The decline in Friday’s shortened trading session pushed yields higher by three to five basis points, led by the policy-sensitive two-year. Traders erased what remained of their bets on Fed easing this year, having priced in only about four basis points before the report, and trimmed wagers on a cut next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五缩短的交易时段内，收益率上升了三到五个基点，以政策敏感的两年期国债为首。交易员们抹去了对美联储今年降息的最后押注，在报告发布前，他们仅预计约四个基点的降息。</p>
</div><p>The Fed is “increasingly likely to be on hold through June, perhaps further,” said , an interest-rate strategist at TJM Institutional Services LLC. “This is pre-conflict data, but nevertheless shows a higher base line.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TJM Institutional Services LLC 的利率策略师表示：“美联储在 6 月之前，甚至更长时间内保持不变的可能性越来越大。这是冲突前的数据，但无论如何显示出更高的基线。”</p>
</div><p>The latest employment report offered a positive picture of the US employment market in March, showing an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新的就业报告显示，3 月份美国就业市场呈现出积极的局面，失业率意外下降。</p>
</div><p>But focus in the $31 trillion Treasuries market remains on the conflict in the Middle East. Bond investors have been torn between growth and inflation concerns tied to the war-driven surge in energy prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在 31 万亿美元的国债市场中，焦点仍然集中在中东的冲突上。债券投资者在与战争驱动的能源价格飙升相关的增长和通胀担忧之间左右为难。</p>
</div><p>Yields have largely been tracking an upswing in oil prices since the US attacked Iran in late February as angst grew around the risk that a potential resurgence of inflation would cause the Fed to delay any rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2 月底美国对伊朗发动攻击以来，收益率大致跟随油价的上涨，因为人们对潜在的通胀复苏可能导致美联储推迟任何降息的风险感到担忧。</p>
</div><p>With oil-market trading closed on Friday ahead of the Easter holiday, three tankers broadcasting Omani ownership appeared to have the Strait of Hormuz by hugging their home country’s coastline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在复活节假期前，油市交易在周五关闭，三艘广播阿曼所有权的油轮似乎通过紧贴其本国海岸线的方式出现在霍尔木兹海峡。</p>
</div><p>Before the war started on Feb. 28, overnight index swaps had priced in more than two quarter-point rate cuts this year. Those expectations were subsequently erased, and traders began to price in the chance that the Fed’s next move would be a rate increase. More recently, the market expects the Fed to stay on hold in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2 月 28 日战争开始之前，隔夜指数掉期已定价超过两次 25 个基点的降息预期。这些预期随后被抹去，交易员们开始定价美联储下一步可能是加息。最近，市场预计美联储将在 2026 年保持不变。</p>
</div><p>The US central bank cut interest rates three times last year in response to weakness in the job market. They paused the cuts in January, citing improvement on that front. Since then, the US Labor Department’s monthly jobs report for January was stronger than anticipated, while February data showed weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国中央银行去年因就业市场疲软三次降息。它们在 1 月份暂停了降息，理由是该领域有所改善。自那时以来，美国劳工部 1 月份的月度就业报告强于预期，而 2 月份的数据则显示出疲软。</p>
</div><p>The March report — which showed nonfarm payrolls rose by the most since the end of 2024 — is unlikely to change much for US policymakers, , chief US economist at Jefferies, wrote in a note to clients.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3 月份的报告——显示非农就业人数增长幅度为 2024 年底以来最大——不太可能对美国政策制定者产生重大影响，Jefferies 的首席美国经济学家在给客户的报告中写道。</p>
</div><p>“The data is mostly backward looking, and likely does not incorporate any impact from the recent rise in energy prices, or other risks related to the war in Iran,” he wrote. “For now, there is nothing here that suggests they need to act soon.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他写道：“这些数据大多是向后的，可能没有考虑到最近能源价格上涨的影响，或与伊朗战争相关的其他风险。就目前而言，没有任何迹象表明他们需要尽快采取行动。”</p>
</div><p>The dollar rose against major peers after the data, then pared its moves as US yields retreated from their session highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在数据发布后，美元对主要货币上涨，随后在美国收益率从会话高点回落时削减了涨幅。</p>
</div><p>A pileup of short positions that had recently built into Treasuries has been diluted over recent sessions as traders hedge against growth shocks from short-term inflationary pressures. In Treasury options, there has been demand for protection against a decline in yields heading into the weekend as traders prepare for a potential gap lower when the cash market reopens on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近在国债中积累的空头头寸在最近的交易中被稀释，交易员们对短期通胀压力带来的增长冲击进行对冲。在国债期权中，交易员们在周末前对收益率下跌的保护需求增加，因为他们准备在周一现金市场重新开放时可能出现的下跌缺口。</p>
</div><p>Ahead of the employment report, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. interest-rate strategists on a March 20 recommendation to buy two-year Treasuries at 3.891% in case a strong reading eroded expectations for a Fed rate cut this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在就业报告发布前，摩根大通的利率策略师在 3 月 20 日建议以 3.891% 的利率购买两年期国债，以防强劲数据削弱对美联储今年降息的预期。</p>
</div><p>Yields on two-year notes were up five basis points to 3.85%, while those on 10-year securities rose to 4.35% in Friday’s , scheduled to end at 12 p.m. New York time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五，二年期国债收益率上升了五个基点，达到 3.85%，而十年期证券的收益率上升至 4.35%，交易定于纽约时间中午 12 点结束。</p>
</div><p>“This should diminish fears about the underlying state of the labor market prior to the oil shock,” said , head of fixed income strategy at Brean Capital LLC. “Prior inflationary fears reset the market higher in terms of yield to a new expectation for the Fed being on hold,” and the data “reaffirms that view.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Brean Capital LLC 的固定收益策略负责人表示：“这应该减轻人们对油价冲击前劳动力市场基本状况的担忧。之前的通胀担忧使市场收益率上升至美联储保持不变的新预期，而这些数据 ‘重申了这一观点’。”</p>
</div><p>Uncertainty remains, however, on the the extent the oil shock will flow through the economy in the coming months, he said. “Everything costs more and incomes are not rising the way they did before.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，他表示，关于油价冲击在未来几个月将对经济产生多大影响仍然存在不确定性。“一切都变得更贵，收入的增长速度并不像以前那样。”</p>
</div>

由于强劲的就业数据削弱了美联储降息的预期，美国债券下跌