<p>美国劳动力市场长期以来一直是一个复杂的运转机制，但在当前的经济环境中，有一个领域的表现比其他所有领域更为可靠。</p>
<p>尽管科技和制造业在人工智能替代和关税带来的风险中艰难前行，医疗保健行业却成为了一股独特而不可动摇的力量——一种生物钟，决定着国家繁荣的节奏。</p>
<p>美国劳工统计局的最新数据显示，3 月份非农就业人数增加了 178,000，其中医疗保健占据了相当大的份额。</p>
<p>该行业新增了 76,000 个职位，主要得益于门诊医疗服务的增长，增加了 54,000 个职位。</p>
<p>这些数据强化了近期观察到的趋势。</p>
<p>1 月份，新增就业人数为 130,000，医疗保健贡献了 82,000 个职位。</p>
<p>2 月份，整体就业人数异常下降 92,000，主要是由于凯撒永久公司（Kaiser Permanente）的罢工，导致超过 30,000 名工人暂时停工，医疗保健就业人数减少了 28,000。</p>
<p>私营部门的数据也讲述了类似的故事。</p>
<p>ADP 的 3 月份报告显示，雇主新增了 62,000 个职位，其中教育和健康服务占 58,000 个。</p>
<p><strong>婴儿潮一代推动医疗保健需求</strong></p>
<p>医疗保健作为劳动力市场稳定力量的角色并不新鲜，自 1980 年代以来，该行业提供了一些最稳定的就业增长。</p>
<p>根据官方数据，自 2022 年 1 月以来，每个月都在增加就业岗位。</p>
<p>“医疗保健仍然是美国就业增长的引擎，” Glassdoor 首席经济学家 Daniel Zhao 在早期分析中表示。</p>
<p>最大的驱动力是美国人口的老龄化。</p>
<p>随着婴儿潮一代进入 70 岁和 80 岁，医疗服务的需求——从老年护理到慢性病管理——呈指数级增长。</p>
<p>每天有超过 10,000 名美国人年满 65 岁，扩大了符合医疗保险资格的人群，并增加了对医疗服务的需求。</p>
<p>经济学家指出，这一群体相对富裕，进一步放大了对医疗服务的需求。</p>
<p>“医疗保健的需求与收入相关，” Indeed Hiring Lab 的 Laura Ullrich 在 12 月的 CNBC 报道中表示。</p>
<p><strong>慢性疾病重塑需求</strong></p>
<p>第二个结构性驱动因素是慢性疾病（如心脏病、癌症和糖尿病）的日益普遍，FX Street 的分析报告指出。</p>
<p>这些疾病需要持续的护理，而不是一次性治疗，根本上重塑了医疗保健的需求性质。</p>
<p>根据医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心的数据，慢性和心理健康状况大约占美国总医疗支出的 90%。</p>
<p>到 2024 年，国家医疗支出达到约 [MONEY value=&#34;5300000000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;]，即 GDP 的近 18%。</p>
<p>这种向持续护理的转变为整个系统的工作人员创造了持久的需求，从医生和护士到技术人员和居家护理人员。</p>
<p>护理越来越多地在传统医院环境之外提供，门诊服务、社会援助和社区支持的增长显著。</p>
<p>3 月份，社会援助单独新增了 14,000 个职位。</p>
<p><strong>尽管基本面强劲，风险依然出现</strong></p>
<p>尽管这些强劲的顺风因素，挑战开始浮现。</p>
<p>不断上升的成本正在给医院财务带来压力，提供者面临着更多无保险患者、坏账和慈善护理的困扰。</p>
<p>政策变化可能进一步复杂化前景。</p>
<p>唐纳德·特朗普签署的《一项美丽的法案》预计将在未来十年内减少约 1 万亿美元的联邦医疗补助支出，令人担忧资金缺口和潜在的失业。</p>
<p>行业专家警告称，财务压力可能导致整合和裁员。</p>
<p>根据 Kaufman Hall（Vizient 的一个单位）最近关于医疗系统财务的报告，医院已经面临广泛的成本压力，费用在多个方面上升。</p>
<p>报告指出，坏账、无保险患者和慈善护理的成本上升。</p>
<p>“一些数据显示医院可能会长期处于 ‘新常态’，医疗保健组织需要非常有策略地多样化服务和管理费用，以建立财务稳定性，” Kaufman Hall 的 Erik Swanson 表示。</p>
<p>尽管更广泛的劳动力市场面临地缘政治紧张和增长放缓的不确定性，医疗保健的结构性驱动因素仍继续为就业提供基础。</p>
<p>政策制定者和雇主面临的问题是，随着财务和政策压力的增加，这种势头是否能够持续。</p>

动态生物技术与基因组 ETF - Invesco

医疗业 ETF - Vanguard

招商中证全指医疗器械ETF

<p>根据美国劳工统计局的数据，医疗行业已成为美国可靠的就业增长来源，仅在三月份就新增了 76,000 个职位。这一增长受到人口老龄化和慢性疾病增加的推动，自 2022 年 1 月以来，医疗行业持续增加就业岗位。然而，成本上升和潜在政策变化等挑战可能威胁到这种稳定性。专家警告称，财务压力可能导致行业内的裁员和整合，尽管对医疗服务的需求仍在持续</p>

<p>The American labour market has long been a complex machine of shifting gears, but in the current economic landscape, one cylinder is firing with more reliability than all others combined.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国劳动力市场长期以来一直是一个复杂的运转机制，但在当前的经济环境中，有一个领域的表现比其他所有领域更为可靠。</p>
</div><p>While technology and manufacturing navigate the choppy waters of replacement by AI and perils brought on by tariffs, the healthcare sector has emerged as a singular, indomitable force—a biological clock of sorts that dictates the rhythm of national prosperity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管科技和制造业在人工智能替代和关税带来的风险中艰难前行，医疗保健行业却成为了一股独特而不可动摇的力量——一种生物钟，决定着国家繁荣的节奏。</p>
</div><p>The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March, with healthcare accounting for a significant share of that growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国劳工统计局的最新数据显示，3 月份非农就业人数增加了 178,000，其中医疗保健占据了相当大的份额。</p>
</div><p>The sector added 76,000 jobs, driven largely by gains in ambulatory healthcare services, which rose by 54,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该行业新增了 76,000 个职位，主要得益于门诊医疗服务的增长，增加了 54,000 个职位。</p>
</div><p>The figures reinforce a pattern seen in recent months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些数据强化了近期观察到的趋势。</p>
</div><p>In January, payrolls increased by 130,000, with healthcare contributing 82,000 jobs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1 月份，新增就业人数为 130,000，医疗保健贡献了 82,000 个职位。</p>
</div><p>In February, an unusual decline of 92,000 in overall payrolls was led largely by a strike at Kaiser Permanente that temporarily sidelined more than 30,000 workers, leading to a 28,000 drop in healthcare employment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2 月份，整体就业人数异常下降 92,000，主要是由于凯撒永久公司（Kaiser Permanente）的罢工，导致超过 30,000 名工人暂时停工，医疗保健就业人数减少了 28,000。</p>
</div><p>Private-sector data tells a similar story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>私营部门的数据也讲述了类似的故事。</p>
</div><p>The March report from ADP showed employers added 62,000 jobs, with education and health services accounting for 58,000 of those gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ADP 的 3 月份报告显示，雇主新增了 62,000 个职位，其中教育和健康服务占 58,000 个。</p>
</div><p><strong>Baby boomers driving demand for healthcare</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>婴儿潮一代推动医疗保健需求</strong></p>
</div><p>Healthcare’s role as a stabilising force in the labour market is not new, and the sector has provided some of the most consistent job growth since the 1980s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>医疗保健作为劳动力市场稳定力量的角色并不新鲜，自 1980 年代以来，该行业提供了一些最稳定的就业增长。</p>
</div><p>It has added jobs every month since January 2022, according to official data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据官方数据，自 2022 年 1 月以来，每个月都在增加就业岗位。</p>
</div><p>“Health care remains the engine of jobs growth for the US,” Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor, said in an earlier analysis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“医疗保健仍然是美国就业增长的引擎，” Glassdoor 首席经济学家 Daniel Zhao 在早期分析中表示。</p>
</div><p>The single biggest driver is the aging US population.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最大的驱动力是美国人口的老龄化。</p>
</div><p>As the Baby Boomer generation enters their 70s and 80s, the demand for medical services—from geriatric care to chronic disease management—increases exponentially.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着婴儿潮一代进入 70 岁和 80 岁，医疗服务的需求——从老年护理到慢性病管理——呈指数级增长。</p>
</div><p>More than 10,000 Americans turn 65 every day, expanding the pool of people eligible for Medicare and increasing demand for healthcare services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每天有超过 10,000 名美国人年满 65 岁，扩大了符合医疗保险资格的人群，并增加了对医疗服务的需求。</p>
</div><p>Economists note that this cohort is also relatively affluent, amplifying demand for healthcare services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家指出，这一群体相对富裕，进一步放大了对医疗服务的需求。</p>
</div><p>“Demand for health care is correlated with income,” said Laura Ullrich of Indeed Hiring Lab in a CNBC report in December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“医疗保健的需求与收入相关，” Indeed Hiring Lab 的 Laura Ullrich 在 12 月的 CNBC 报道中表示。</p>
</div><p><strong>Chronic diseases reshape demand</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>慢性疾病重塑需求</strong></p>
</div><p>A second structural driver is the rising prevalence of chronic illnesses such as heart disease, cancer, and diabetes, an analysis by FX Street reported.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二个结构性驱动因素是慢性疾病（如心脏病、癌症和糖尿病）的日益普遍，FX Street 的分析报告指出。</p>
</div><p>These conditions require ongoing care rather than one-time treatment, fundamentally reshaping the nature of healthcare demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些疾病需要持续的护理，而不是一次性治疗，根本上重塑了医疗保健的需求性质。</p>
</div><p>According to the Centers for Medicare &amp; Medicaid Services, chronic and mental health conditions account for roughly 90% of total healthcare spending in the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心的数据，慢性和心理健康状况大约占美国总医疗支出的 90%。</p>
</div><p>National health expenditure reached about [MONEY value=&#34;5300000000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;] in 2024, or nearly 18% of GDP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到 2024 年，国家医疗支出达到约 [MONEY value=&#34;5300000000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;]，即 GDP 的近 18%。</p>
</div><p>This shift toward continuous care has created a durable demand for workers across the system, from physicians and nurses to technicians and home-based caregivers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种向持续护理的转变为整个系统的工作人员创造了持久的需求，从医生和护士到技术人员和居家护理人员。</p>
</div><p>Increasingly, care is being delivered outside traditional hospital settings, with growth in outpatient services, social assistance, and community-based support.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>护理越来越多地在传统医院环境之外提供，门诊服务、社会援助和社区支持的增长显著。</p>
</div><p>In March, social assistance alone added 14,000 jobs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3 月份，社会援助单独新增了 14,000 个职位。</p>
</div><p><strong>Why risks emerge despite strong fundamentals</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>尽管基本面强劲，风险依然出现</strong></p>
</div><p>Despite these strong tailwinds, challenges are beginning to surface.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这些强劲的顺风因素，挑战开始浮现。</p>
</div><p>Rising costs are straining hospital finances, with providers grappling with higher levels of uninsured patients, bad debt, and charity care.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不断上升的成本正在给医院财务带来压力，提供者面临着更多无保险患者、坏账和慈善护理的困扰。</p>
</div><p>Policy changes could further complicate the outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策变化可能进一步复杂化前景。</p>
</div><p>The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” signed by Donald Trump is expected to reduce federal Medicaid spending by around $1 trillion [MONEY value=&#34;1000000000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;] over the next decade, raising concerns about funding gaps and potential job losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>唐纳德·特朗普签署的《一项美丽的法案》预计将在未来十年内减少约 1 万亿美元的联邦医疗补助支出，令人担忧资金缺口和潜在的失业。</p>
</div><p>Industry experts warn that financial pressures could lead to consolidation and workforce reductions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>行业专家警告称，财务压力可能导致整合和裁员。</p>
</div><p>Hospitals are already facing broad-based cost pressures, with expenses rising across multiple fronts, according to a recent report on health system finances by Kaufman Hall, a unit of Vizient.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Kaufman Hall（Vizient 的一个单位）最近关于医疗系统财务的报告，医院已经面临广泛的成本压力，费用在多个方面上升。</p>
</div><p>The report pointed to higher costs linked to bad debt, uninsured patients, and increased levels of charity care.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告指出，坏账、无保险患者和慈善护理的成本上升。</p>
</div><p>“With some data suggesting a lingering ‘new normal’ for hospitals, healthcare organizations need to be very strategic about diversifying services and managing expenses to build financial stability,” said Erik Swanson of Kaufman Hall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“一些数据显示医院可能会长期处于 ‘新常态’，医疗保健组织需要非常有策略地多样化服务和管理费用，以建立财务稳定性，” Kaufman Hall 的 Erik Swanson 表示。</p>
</div><p>While the broader labour market faces uncertainty from geopolitical tensions and slowing growth, healthcare’s structural drivers continue to provide a foundation for employment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管更广泛的劳动力市场面临地缘政治紧张和增长放缓的不确定性，医疗保健的结构性驱动因素仍继续为就业提供基础。</p>
</div><p>The question for policymakers and employers alike is whether that momentum can be sustained as financial and policy pressures mount.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策制定者和雇主面临的问题是，随着财务和政策压力的增加，这种势头是否能够持续。</p>
</div>

医疗保健行业如何成为美国最稳定的薪资来源