<p>美国国债收益率在周三下跌，因中东地区的敌对行动暂停两周，缓解了对新一轮通胀冲击的担忧，并吸引投资者重新投资于政府债券。</p>
<p>随着油价大幅回落，反弹加速，降低了人们对能源成本上升会使美联储政策路径复杂化的担忧。</p>
<p>截至美国东部时间凌晨 3:35，10 年期国债收益率已下降超过 10 个基点，降至 4.2399%；而两年期国债下降 11 个基点，至 3.7193%；30 年期国债下降 7 个基点，至 4.8482%。</p>
<p>一个基点等于 0.01%。</p>
<p><strong>债券反弹加速</strong></p>
<p>收益率的下滑表明，投资者正在解除因地区紧张局势升级而在债券市场中积累的通胀溢价。</p>
<p>当收益率下降时，国债价格上涨，市场情绪的变化表明，随着油价前景变得不那么威胁，政府债务的需求重新回升。</p>
<p>此前，债券市场受到压力，交易员们权衡更广泛地区冲突可能会扰乱能源流动并保持价格压力的风险。</p>
<p>周三的走势标志着一种逆转，投资者从迹象中获得安慰，表明至少在目前，立即的军事升级可能会被避免。</p>
<p><strong>能源回落缓解通胀担忧</strong></p>
<p>在特朗普总统表示将推迟对伊朗的军事行动，同时继续就霍尔木兹海峡相关条件进行谈判后，油价下跌。</p>
<p>该水道至关重要，因为它运输着全球约五分之一的石油和液化天然气供应，任何干扰都会直接影响通胀、运输成本和更广泛的风险情绪。</p>
<p>这对债券很重要，因为能源一直是中东冲突通过通胀预期传导的最明显渠道之一。</p>
<p>随着原油价格回落，交易员们对最新的油价冲击可能不足以迫使美联储采取更谨慎的立场充满信心。</p>
<p><strong>关注政策信号</strong></p>
<p>随着地缘政治压力的缓解，注意力再次转向中央银行的信号和即将发布的经济数据。</p>
<p>美联储在 3 月的会议上维持基准利率不变，主席鲍威尔承认，尽管增长担忧依然存在，但更高的油价可能会使通胀前景复杂化。https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html</p>
<p>这使得投资者关注政策制定者如何解读近期能源市场的波动的任何新指引。</p>
<p>原油的持续下跌可能支持更宽松的金融条件，而任何对油价的重新压力将迅速恢复人们对通胀可能保持顽固的担忧。</p>
<p>当前的重点是海湾地区的平静状况是否能够维持，以及通过霍尔木兹的航运是否保持稳定。</p>
<p>如果油价保持在一定范围内，国债收益率可能还有进一步下跌的空间，因为投资者重建通胀风险将缓和的预期。</p>
<p>目前，市场的信息很明确：较低的油价正在帮助债券复苏，利率前景再次更多地受到政策和数据的驱动，而不是对突发能源冲击的担忧。</p>

油气服务 ETF - Market Vectors

能源基础设施 MLP ETF - GlobalX

炼油公司指数 ETF - VanEck Vectors

<p>美国国债收益率下跌，因为中东停火缓解了通胀担忧，吸引投资者回归政府债券。10 年期国债收益率降至 4.2399%，两年期降至 3.7193%，30 年期降至 4.8482%。由于特朗普总统推迟对伊朗的军事行动，油价下跌，降低了与能源成本相关的通胀担忧。随着地缘政治紧张局势的缓解，市场关注中央银行的信号和经济数据，表明较低的油价可能支持更有利的债券市场前景</p>

<p>US Treasury yields fell on Wednesday as a two-week freeze in hostilities in the Middle East eased concerns about a fresh inflation shock and drew investors back into government bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国国债收益率在周三下跌，因中东地区的敌对行动暂停两周，缓解了对新一轮通胀冲击的担忧，并吸引投资者重新投资于政府债券。</p>
</div><p>The rally gathered pace as oil prices retreated sharply, reducing fears that higher energy costs would complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy path.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着油价大幅回落，反弹加速，降低了人们对能源成本上升会使美联储政策路径复杂化的担忧。</p>
</div><p>By 3:35 a.m. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note had dropped more than 10 basis points to 4.2399%, while the two-year note fell 11 basis points to 3.7193% and the 30-year bond declined 7 basis points to 4.8482%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至美国东部时间凌晨 3:35，10 年期国债收益率已下降超过 10 个基点，降至 4.2399%；而两年期国债下降 11 个基点，至 3.7193%；30 年期国债下降 7 个基点，至 4.8482%。</p>
</div><p>One basis point equals 0.01%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个基点等于 0.01%。</p>
</div><p><strong>Bond rally gathers pace</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>债券反弹加速</strong></p>
</div><p>The move lower in yields suggested investors were unwinding some of the inflation premium that had built into the bond market as tensions in the region escalated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>收益率的下滑表明，投资者正在解除因地区紧张局势升级而在债券市场中积累的通胀溢价。</p>
</div><p>Treasury prices rise when yields fall, and the shift in market tone pointed to renewed demand for government debt as the outlook for oil became less threatening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当收益率下降时，国债价格上涨，市场情绪的变化表明，随着油价前景变得不那么威胁，政府债务的需求重新回升。</p>
</div><p>The bond market had been under pressure earlier as traders weighed the risk that a broader regional conflict could disrupt energy flows and keep price pressures elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此前，债券市场受到压力，交易员们权衡更广泛地区冲突可能会扰乱能源流动并保持价格压力的风险。</p>
</div><p>Wednesday’s move marked a reversal, with investors taking comfort from signs that immediate military escalation may be avoided, at least for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三的走势标志着一种逆转，投资者从迹象中获得安慰，表明至少在目前，立即的军事升级可能会被避免。</p>
</div><p><strong>Energy retreat cools inflation fears</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>能源回落缓解通胀担忧</strong></p>
</div><p>Oil prices dropped after President Donald Trump said he would delay military action against Iran while talks continued over conditions tied to the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特朗普总统表示将推迟对伊朗的军事行动，同时继续就霍尔木兹海峡相关条件进行谈判后，油价下跌。</p>
</div><p>The waterway is critical because it carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, making any disruption there a direct concern for inflation, transport costs and broader risk sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该水道至关重要，因为它运输着全球约五分之一的石油和液化天然气供应，任何干扰都会直接影响通胀、运输成本和更广泛的风险情绪。</p>
</div><p>That matters for bonds because energy has been one of the clearest channels through which the Middle East conflict has fed into inflation expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对债券很重要，因为能源一直是中东冲突通过通胀预期传导的最明显渠道之一。</p>
</div><p>As crude prices fell back, traders gained confidence that the latest oil shock may not be severe enough to force a more cautious stance from the Fed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着原油价格回落，交易员们对最新的油价冲击可能不足以迫使美联储采取更谨慎的立场充满信心。</p>
</div><p><strong>Focus shifts to policy signals</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>关注政策信号</strong></p>
</div><p>With geopolitical stress easing, attention is turning back to central-bank signals and incoming economic data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着地缘政治压力的缓解，注意力再次转向中央银行的信号和即将发布的经济数据。</p>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at its March meeting, with Chair Jerome Powell acknowledging that higher oil prices could complicate the inflation outlook even as growth concerns lingered.https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储在 3 月的会议上维持基准利率不变，主席鲍威尔承认，尽管增长担忧依然存在，但更高的油价可能会使通胀前景复杂化。https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html</p>
</div><p>That leaves investors watching for any fresh guidance on how policymakers are interpreting the recent volatility in energy markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得投资者关注政策制定者如何解读近期能源市场的波动的任何新指引。</p>
</div><p>A sustained drop in crude could support the case for easier financial conditions, while any renewed pressure on oil would quickly revive concerns that inflation could remain sticky.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油的持续下跌可能支持更宽松的金融条件，而任何对油价的重新压力将迅速恢复人们对通胀可能保持顽固的担忧。</p>
</div><p>The immediate focus is whether calmer conditions in the Gulf hold and whether shipping through Hormuz remains stable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前的重点是海湾地区的平静状况是否能够维持，以及通过霍尔木兹的航运是否保持稳定。</p>
</div><p>If oil stays contained, Treasury yields may have room to fall further as investors rebuild expectations that inflation risks will moderate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果油价保持在一定范围内，国债收益率可能还有进一步下跌的空间，因为投资者重建通胀风险将缓和的预期。</p>
</div><p>For now, the market’s message is straightforward: lower oil is helping bonds recover, and the rates outlook is once again being driven more by policy and data than by fears of an abrupt energy shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，市场的信息很明确：较低的油价正在帮助债券复苏，利率前景再次更多地受到政策和数据的驱动，而不是对突发能源冲击的担忧。</p>
</div>

由于中东停火后油价下跌，美国国债收益率下降