<p>随着交易周的结束，美元/墨西哥比索的价格走势出现了 <strong>连续四个交易日的下跌趋势</strong>，短期内下跌幅度超过 <strong>2.7%，有利于墨西哥比索</strong>，使得近期走势呈现出更为一致的看空偏向。</p>
<p>目前，由于 <strong>美元的疲软</strong> 以及墨西哥最新的通胀数据未显示出明显放缓，反而增强了 <strong>墨西哥银行采取更激进立场的可能性</strong>，卖压开始显现。在这种背景下，美元/墨西哥比索的疲软在接下来的交易中可能仍然具有相关性。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h2><strong>墨西哥的新通胀数据</strong></h2>
<p>在今天的交易中，墨西哥的年度通胀率公布为 <strong>3 月 4.59%</strong>，与预期的 4.6% 基本一致，但仍远高于中央银行接近 <strong>3.00%</strong> 的目标。</p>
<p>尽管这一数据符合预期，但值得注意的是，通胀在最近几个月显示出 <strong>持续上升的趋势</strong>，从 12 月的约 3.69% 上升至当前水平。这反映出与中央银行目标的持续背离，暗示当前的政策可能需要调整，以维持未来几个月的价格稳定。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/Mexico_Inflation_Rate%20%283%29_0.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="820" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/Mexico_Inflation_Rate%20%283%29_0.png"/></p>
<p><em>来源：TradingEconomics</em></p>
<p>在这种背景下，尤其值得注意的是，在 3 月的决策中，墨西哥银行将利率下调至 <strong>6.75%</strong>，而董事会对此持分歧态度，等待进一步的通胀数据。现在，随着通胀保持高位，这可能开始影响中央银行对 2026 年即将到来的货币政策决策的展望，可能导致未来几个月 <strong>暂停降息</strong>。</p>
<p>考虑到墨西哥银行的利率在与加拿大或美国等经济体相比时仍然处于较高水平，更激进的立场可能继续支持 <strong>以比索计价资产的吸引力</strong>。因此，如果通胀压力持续，美元/墨西哥比索的卖压在未来几周可能仍然具有相关性。</p>
<h2><strong>美元的暂时缓解？</strong></h2>
<p>同样值得注意的是，墨西哥比索近期的强势得益于 <strong>美元的疲软</strong>，这主要是由于中东地区的停火，减少了对美元等避险资产的需求。</p>
<p>DXY 指数衡量美元对主要货币的强度，已显示出 <strong>从 100 水平下降至 99 以下的水平</strong>，反映出短期内对该货币的需求减弱。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/dxy_cur%20%2821%29_1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1040" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/dxy_cur%20%2821%29_1.png"/></p>
<p><em>来源：TradingEconomics</em></p>
<p>在这种情况下，如果美元疲软持续，比索可能在短期内继续走强，进一步施加美元/墨西哥比索的下行压力。然而，重要的是要考虑到，中东冲突的任何重新升级可能会逆转这一动态，并恢复对美元的需求，正如前几周所见。</p>
<h2><strong>美元/墨西哥比索技术展望</strong></h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDMXN_2026-04-09_10-28-11.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1538" height="917" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDMXN_2026-04-09_10-28-11.png"/></p>
<p><em>来源：StoneX, Tradingview</em></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>长期看空通道重新占据主导地位：</strong> 最近美元/墨西哥比索的疲软使得自 2025 年以来的 <strong>长期看空通道</strong> 在短期内重新获得相关性，并再次成为最重要的技术结构。只要买压未能巩固，主导偏向可能仍将保持看空，因为近期的上行修正不足以挑战这一结构。因此，在接下来的交易中，图表偏向继续倾向于下行。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>RSI：</strong> RSI 显示出持续低于 <strong>50 水平</strong> 的走势，表明在过去 14 个交易日内卖压占主导地位。只要这种动态持续，下行压力可能继续增强。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>MACD：</strong> MACD 直方图也保持在零线以下，反映出 <strong>卖压继续主导短期移动平均线</strong>。如果这种行为持续，可能会在接下来的交易中强化看空偏向。</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>关键水平：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>17.89 – 关键阻力：</strong> 位于看空通道上方的前高。向该水平的移动可能会重新激活 <strong>看涨偏向</strong>，并挑战当前的看空结构。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>17.51 – 当前障碍：</strong> 与 50 期移动平均线对齐的短期水平。该水平可能作为潜在 <strong>短期修正走势</strong> 的参考点。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>17.10 – 关键支撑：</strong> 对应于 2026 年的低点和主要下行障碍。跌破该水平可能会强化 <strong>更强的卖压</strong>，并在未来几周延长看空通道。</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>撰写者：Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – 市场分析师</strong></p>
<p><strong>关注他：</strong> <strong>@julianpineda25</strong></p>

墨西哥 3 倍做多 MSCI ETF - Direxion

iShares MSCI墨西哥投资指数ETF

<p>美元/墨西哥比索（USD/MXN）经历了四个交易日的下跌趋势，下降超过 2.7%，因墨西哥比索走强。此趋势受到美元疲软和墨西哥近期通胀数据的影响，后者仍高于中央银行的目标。3 月份的年通胀率为 4.59%，引发了对墨西哥银行货币政策调整的猜测。如果美元疲软持续，比索的强势可能会继续，尽管地缘政治紧张局势可能会逆转这一趋势。技术指标显示，美元/墨西哥比索在短期内呈现看跌前景，关键支撑和阻力位已被识别</p>

<p>As the trading week comes to a close, USD/MXN price action has posted a <strong>four-session bearish streak</strong>, with a decline of more than <strong>2.7% in the short term in favor of the Mexican peso</strong>, giving way to a more consistent bearish bias in recent movements.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着交易周的结束，美元/墨西哥比索的价格走势出现了 <strong>连续四个交易日的下跌趋势</strong>，短期内下跌幅度超过 <strong>2.7%，有利于墨西哥比索</strong>，使得近期走势呈现出更为一致的看空偏向。</p>
</div><p>For now, selling pressure has started to emerge due to both the <strong>weakness of the U.S. dollar</strong> and the latest inflation data in Mexico, which do not show a clear slowdown and reinforce the possibility of a <strong>more aggressive stance from Banco de México</strong>. In this context, USD/MXN weakness could remain relevant in the coming trading sessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，由于 <strong>美元的疲软</strong> 以及墨西哥最新的通胀数据未显示出明显放缓，反而增强了 <strong>墨西哥银行采取更激进立场的可能性</strong>，卖压开始显现。在这种背景下，美元/墨西哥比索的疲软在接下来的交易中可能仍然具有相关性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h2><strong>New inflation data in Mexico</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>墨西哥的新通胀数据</strong></h2>
</div><p>During today’s session, Mexico’s annual inflation rate was released, coming in at <strong>4.59% for March</strong>, in line with expectations of 4.6%, but still well above the central bank’s target near <strong>3.00%</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今天的交易中，墨西哥的年度通胀率公布为 <strong>3 月 4.59%</strong>，与预期的 4.6% 基本一致，但仍远高于中央银行接近 <strong>3.00%</strong> 的目标。</p>
</div><p>Although the figure matched expectations, what stands out is that inflation has shown a <strong>consistent upward trend in recent months</strong>, rising from around 3.69% in December to current levels. This reflects a continued divergence from the central bank’s target, suggesting that the current policy approach may require adjustments to maintain price stability in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这一数据符合预期，但值得注意的是，通胀在最近几个月显示出 <strong>持续上升的趋势</strong>，从 12 月的约 3.69% 上升至当前水平。这反映出与中央银行目标的持续背离，暗示当前的政策可能需要调整，以维持未来几个月的价格稳定。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/Mexico_Inflation_Rate%20%283%29_0.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/Mexico_Inflation_Rate%20%283%29_0.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: TradingEconomics</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：TradingEconomics</em></p>
</div><p>This context is particularly relevant, as during its March decision Banco de México cut interest rates to <strong>6.75%</strong>, with a divided board awaiting further inflation data. Now, with inflation remaining elevated, this could begin to influence the central bank’s outlook for upcoming monetary policy decisions in 2026, potentially leading to a <strong>pause in rate cuts</strong> in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，尤其值得注意的是，在 3 月的决策中，墨西哥银行将利率下调至 <strong>6.75%</strong>，而董事会对此持分歧态度，等待进一步的通胀数据。现在，随着通胀保持高位，这可能开始影响中央银行对 2026 年即将到来的货币政策决策的展望，可能导致未来几个月 <strong>暂停降息</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Considering that Banco de México maintains one of the highest interest rates compared to economies such as Canada or the United States, a more aggressive stance could continue to support the <strong>attractiveness of peso-denominated assets</strong>. As a result, if inflation pressures persist, selling pressure on USD/MXN could remain relevant in the weeks ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到墨西哥银行的利率在与加拿大或美国等经济体相比时仍然处于较高水平，更激进的立场可能继续支持 <strong>以比索计价资产的吸引力</strong>。因此，如果通胀压力持续，美元/墨西哥比索的卖压在未来几周可能仍然具有相关性。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Temporary relief for the U.S. dollar?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>美元的暂时缓解？</strong></h2>
</div><p>It is also worth noting that the recent strength of the Mexican peso has been supported by the <strong>weakness of the U.S. dollar</strong>, driven by the truce in the Middle East, which has reduced demand for safe-haven assets such as the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样值得注意的是，墨西哥比索近期的强势得益于 <strong>美元的疲软</strong>，这主要是由于中东地区的停火，减少了对美元等避险资产的需求。</p>
</div><p>The DXY index, which measures the strength of the dollar against its major peers, has shown a <strong>decline from the 100 level toward levels below 99</strong>, reflecting weaker demand for the currency in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DXY 指数衡量美元对主要货币的强度，已显示出 <strong>从 100 水平下降至 99 以下的水平</strong>，反映出短期内对该货币的需求减弱。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/dxy_cur%20%2821%29_1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/dxy_cur%20%2821%29_1.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: TradingEconomics</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：TradingEconomics</em></p>
</div><p>In this context, if dollar weakness persists, the peso could continue to gain ground in the short term, further supporting downside pressure in USD/MXN. However, it is important to consider that any renewed escalation in the Middle East conflict could reverse this dynamic and restore demand for the dollar, as seen in previous weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，如果美元疲软持续，比索可能在短期内继续走强，进一步施加美元/墨西哥比索的下行压力。然而，重要的是要考虑到，中东冲突的任何重新升级可能会逆转这一动态，并恢复对美元的需求，正如前几周所见。</p>
</div><h2><strong>USD/MXN Technical Outlook</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>美元/墨西哥比索技术展望</strong></h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDMXN_2026-04-09_10-28-11.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDMXN_2026-04-09_10-28-11.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: StoneX, Tradingview</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：StoneX, Tradingview</em></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Long-term bearish channel regains dominance:</strong> The recent weakness in USD/MXN has allowed the <strong>long-term bearish channel</strong>, in place since 2025, to regain relevance in the short term and once again stand out as the most important technical structure. As long as buying pressure fails to consolidate, the dominant bias is likely to remain bearish, as recent upward corrections have not been strong enough to challenge this structure. Therefore, in the coming sessions, the chart bias continues to lean toward the downside.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>长期看空通道重新占据主导地位：</strong> 最近美元/墨西哥比索的疲软使得自 2025 年以来的 <strong>长期看空通道</strong> 在短期内重新获得相关性，并再次成为最重要的技术结构。只要买压未能巩固，主导偏向可能仍将保持看空，因为近期的上行修正不足以挑战这一结构。因此，在接下来的交易中，图表偏向继续倾向于下行。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>RSI:</strong> The RSI shows a consistent move below the <strong>50 level</strong>, suggesting that selling momentum dominates over the last 14 sessions. As long as this dynamic persists, downside pressure could continue to strengthen.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>RSI：</strong> RSI 显示出持续低于 <strong>50 水平</strong> 的走势，表明在过去 14 个交易日内卖压占主导地位。只要这种动态持续，下行压力可能继续增强。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>MACD:</strong> The MACD histogram also remains below the zero line, reflecting that <strong>selling pressure continues to dominate short-term moving averages</strong>. If this behavior continues, it could reinforce a bearish bias in the coming sessions.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>MACD：</strong> MACD 直方图也保持在零线以下，反映出 <strong>卖压继续主导短期移动平均线</strong>。如果这种行为持续，可能会在接下来的交易中强化看空偏向。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Key levels:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>关键水平：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>17.89 – Key resistance:</strong> A previous high located above the bearish channel. A move toward this level could reactivate a <strong>bullish bias</strong> and challenge the current bearish structure.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>17.89 – 关键阻力：</strong> 位于看空通道上方的前高。向该水平的移动可能会重新激活 <strong>看涨偏向</strong>，并挑战当前的看空结构。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>17.51 – Current barrier:</strong> A near-term level aligned with the 50-period moving average. This level could act as a reference point for potential <strong>short-term corrective moves</strong>.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>17.51 – 当前障碍：</strong> 与 50 期移动平均线对齐的短期水平。该水平可能作为潜在 <strong>短期修正走势</strong> 的参考点。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>17.10 – Key support:</strong> A level corresponding to 2026 lows and the main downside barrier. A break below this level could reinforce <strong>stronger selling pressure</strong> and extend the bearish channel in the coming weeks.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>17.10 – 关键支撑：</strong> 对应于 2026 年的低点和主要下行障碍。跌破该水平可能会强化 <strong>更强的卖压</strong>，并在未来几周延长看空通道。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>撰写者：Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – 市场分析师</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Follow him on:</strong> <strong>@julianpineda25</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>关注他：</strong> <strong>@julianpineda25</strong></p>
</div>

美元兑墨西哥比索分析：墨西哥比索在通胀数据发布后依然强劲