<p>作者：Frances Yue</p>
<p>比特币近期的强劲表现可能暗示软件股的压力最终会开始减轻</p>
<p>Okta 是周五大幅下跌的软件股之一。</p>
<p>周五比特币的相对强势可能为受挫的软件股提供了一个看涨的线索——如果过去的关系仍然成立的话，BTIG 的技术策略师表示。</p>
<p>这个信号很重要，因为软件股在最近几周一直是股市中表现最弱的领域之一。在近年来，加密货币和软件股往往是同步波动的，二者都被视为风险资产，当投资者更愿意投资于增长和投机时，通常会受益。</p>
<p>如果这种相关性仍然存在，比特币（BTCUSD）近期的强劲表现可能暗示软件股的压力最终也会开始减轻，BTIG 首席市场技术分析师 Jonathan Krinsky 在周五与 MarketWatch 分享的评论中表示。</p>
<p>这对股票多头来说是个好消息。但 Krinsky 指出，可能还有另一种不太乐观的解释：比特币与软件股之间的相关性可能正在开始减弱。</p>
<p>如果是这样，加密货币的涨幅可能对软件股的未来走势没有太大影响。Krinsky 补充说，目前还为时尚早，无法确定哪种解释是正确的。</p>
<p>下图显示了自 2024 年以来比特币和 WisdomTree 云计算基金 WCLD（投资于软件公司的基金）的表现。</p>
<p>周五，比特币与软件股之间的对比尤为明显。根据道琼斯市场数据，WCLD 基金周五下午下跌 5.2%，收于 24.09 美元，为 2023 年 1 月 6 日以来的最低收盘价。该 ETF 也连续第五天下跌，创下自 2025 年 4 月 8 日以来最糟糕的五天表现。与此同时，比特币周五交易价格最高达到 73,311 美元，为 3 月 18 日以来的最高日内水平。</p>
<p>这种分化自 2 月底以来变得尤为明显，当时伊朗战争爆发。自 2 月 28 日冲突开始以来，比特币上涨了 11.5%，而标准普尔 500 指数（SPX）下跌了 0.9%。在同一时期，WCLD 基金下跌了 12.3%。</p>
<p>另一只广受关注的软件行业指标 iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF（IGV）在此期间下跌了 9.2%。但 Krinsky 指出，IGV 并不是纯粹的软件投资，因为它还包括一些加密矿工。这使得近期的分歧更加令人惊讶，因为与加密相关的强劲表现本应帮助该 ETF 抵御更大的损失，即使软件股继续下滑。</p>
<p>软件股受到压力的部分原因是投资者担心人工智能可能通过降低竞争对手构建竞争产品的成本和难度来挤压软件利润。</p>
<p>与此同时，比特币近期的韧性可能是由特定于加密货币的因素驱动，而不是软件公司的前景改善。一些加密市场参与者认为，比特币的相对优越表现部分反映了其在地缘政治压力下作为潜在价值储存的吸引力，尤其是在中东一些地区担心在冲突中获得当地银行系统的接入。</p>
<p>-Frances Yue</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>04-10-26 1736ET</p>

RIOT

ETHE

<p>比特币近期的强劲表现可能表明软件股票面临的压力有可能减轻，而这些股票一直处于挣扎之中。例如，Okta 的股价大幅下跌。历史上，软件和加密货币股票的走势通常是同步的，但这种相关性可能正在减弱。WisdomTree 云计算基金下跌了 5.2%，而比特币则达到了自三月以来的最高水平。对人工智能影响软件利润的担忧以及地缘政治因素对比特币作为价值储存手段吸引力的影响正在推动这些趋势。比特币与软件股票之间的未来关系仍然不确定</p>

<p>By Frances Yue</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Frances Yue</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin's recent strength could suggest that pressure on software stocks may eventually start to ease</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币近期的强劲表现可能暗示软件股的压力最终会开始减轻</p>
</div><p>Okta was one of the software stocks that fell sharply on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Okta 是周五大幅下跌的软件股之一。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin's relative strength on Friday may offer a bullish clue for battered software shares - that is, if a past relationship still holds, according to a technical strategist at BTIG.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五比特币的相对强势可能为受挫的软件股提供了一个看涨的线索——如果过去的关系仍然成立的话，BTIG 的技术策略师表示。</p>
</div><p>The signal matters because software has been one of the stock market's weakest areas in recent weeks. In recent years, crypto and software stocks have often moved in tandem, with both seen as risk-on assets that tend to benefit when investors are more willing to buy into growth and speculation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个信号很重要，因为软件股在最近几周一直是股市中表现最弱的领域之一。在近年来，加密货币和软件股往往是同步波动的，二者都被视为风险资产，当投资者更愿意投资于增长和投机时，通常会受益。</p>
</div><p>If that correlation still holds, bitcoin's (BTCUSD) recent strength could suggest that pressure on software stocks may eventually start to ease as well, said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, in commentary shared with MarketWatch on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这种相关性仍然存在，比特币（BTCUSD）近期的强劲表现可能暗示软件股的压力最终也会开始减轻，BTIG 首席市场技术分析师 Jonathan Krinsky 在周五与 MarketWatch 分享的评论中表示。</p>
</div><p>That would be good news for equity bulls. But there might be another, less promising explanation, according to Krinsky: The correlation between bitcoin and software stocks may simply be starting to break down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对股票多头来说是个好消息。但 Krinsky 指出，可能还有另一种不太乐观的解释：比特币与软件股之间的相关性可能正在开始减弱。</p>
</div><p>If that is the case, crypto's gains may have little to say about where software stocks are headed next. It is still too early to know which explanation is right, Krinsky added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果是这样，加密货币的涨幅可能对软件股的未来走势没有太大影响。Krinsky 补充说，目前还为时尚早，无法确定哪种解释是正确的。</p>
</div><p>The chart below shows the performance of bitcoin and the WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund WCLD, which invests in software companies, since 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下图显示了自 2024 年以来比特币和 WisdomTree 云计算基金 WCLD（投资于软件公司的基金）的表现。</p>
</div><p>The contrast between bitcoin and software stocks was on vivid display Friday. The WCLD fund fell 5.2% Friday afternoon to end at $24.09, its lowest close since Jan. 6, 2023, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The ETF was also down for a fifth straight day, marking its worst five-day stretch since the period ended April 8, 2025. Bitcoin, meanwhile, traded as high as $73,311 on Friday, its highest intraday level since March 18.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五，比特币与软件股之间的对比尤为明显。根据道琼斯市场数据，WCLD 基金周五下午下跌 5.2%，收于 24.09 美元，为 2023 年 1 月 6 日以来的最低收盘价。该 ETF 也连续第五天下跌，创下自 2025 年 4 月 8 日以来最糟糕的五天表现。与此同时，比特币周五交易价格最高达到 73,311 美元，为 3 月 18 日以来的最高日内水平。</p>
</div><p>That split has become especially noticeable since late February, when the Iran war broke out. Since the start of the conflict on Feb. 28, bitcoin has risen 11.5%, while the S&amp;P 500 SPX has fallen 0.9%. Over the same period, the WCLD fund has dropped 12.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种分化自 2 月底以来变得尤为明显，当时伊朗战争爆发。自 2 月 28 日冲突开始以来，比特币上涨了 11.5%，而标准普尔 500 指数（SPX）下跌了 0.9%。在同一时期，WCLD 基金下跌了 12.3%。</p>
</div><p>The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF IGV, another widely watched software-sector gauge, has fallen 9.2% over that stretch. But IGV is not a pure software play, Krinsky noted, because it also includes a number of crypto miners. That makes the recent divergence even more surprising, he said, as crypto-related strength should have helped buttress the ETF against heavier losses, even as software stocks continued to slide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一只广受关注的软件行业指标 iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF（IGV）在此期间下跌了 9.2%。但 Krinsky 指出，IGV 并不是纯粹的软件投资，因为它还包括一些加密矿工。这使得近期的分歧更加令人惊讶，因为与加密相关的强劲表现本应帮助该 ETF 抵御更大的损失，即使软件股继续下滑。</p>
</div><p>Software stocks have come under pressure in part because investors worry that artificial intelligence could squeeze software profits by making it cheaper and easier for rivals to build competing products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>软件股受到压力的部分原因是投资者担心人工智能可能通过降低竞争对手构建竞争产品的成本和难度来挤压软件利润。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, bitcoin's recent resilience may be driven by forces specific to crypto, rather than by any improving outlook for software companies. Some crypto-market participants have argued that bitcoin's relative outperformance partly reflects its appeal as a potential store of value during geopolitical stress, particularly as some in the Middle East have worried about access to local banking systems amid the conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，比特币近期的韧性可能是由特定于加密货币的因素驱动，而不是软件公司的前景改善。一些加密市场参与者认为，比特币的相对优越表现部分反映了其在地缘政治压力下作为潜在价值储存的吸引力，尤其是在中东一些地区担心在冲突中获得当地银行系统的接入。</p>
</div><p>-Frances Yue</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Frances Yue</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>04-10-26 1736ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>04-10-26 1736ET</p>
</div>

Software stocks are getting pulverized - but bitcoin's rebound hints that a bottom might be in

- 比特币的近期强劲表现可能暗示软件股票的压力将逐渐减轻。  
- 软件股票在最近几周表现疲软，例如 Okta 股票大幅下跌。  
- 投资者对人工智能的担忧和地缘政治因素可能影响了软件公司前景。

Dow Jones

Riot Platforms

Hut 8 Mining

Grayscale Ethereum Staking ETF

Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF

Bakkt

American Bitcoin

Coinbase

Marathon Digital

WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund

IShares Ethereum Trust ETF

Grayscale Solana Staking ETF

VanEck Ethereum ETF

Franklin Bitcoin ETF

CoinShares Bitcoin ETF

Grayscale Bitcoin Adopters ETF

标普软件与服务 ETF - SPDR

Fidelity Ethereum Fund

2 倍做多 Riot ETF - Defiance

区块链 ETF - Amplify

Franklin Ethereum ETF

北美科技软件股指数 ETF - iShares

云计算基金 - WisdomTree

Bitwise Ethereum ETF

Grayscale Ethereum Mini Staking ETF

COIN 周收益 ETF - Roundhill

2 倍做多 Coinbase ETF - Leverage Shares

2 倍做多 MARA ETF - GraniteShares

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - ETF

VanEck Bitcoin ETF

Tradr 2X Long OKTA Daily ETF

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF

Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF

软件股正遭受重创，但比特币的反弹暗示市场底部可能已经形成