<p>美国小盘股在 2026 年正经历显著反弹，经过多年的回报滞后后，表现优于大型股，行业动态、估值重置和改善的盈利前景正在重塑市场领导力。</p>
<p>截至今年，小盘股的表现比大型股高出 8.5 个百分点，标志着在大约六年的表现不佳后出现了急剧反转。</p>
<p>这一变化发生在投资者定位的更广泛变化中，资本正在从大型科技股转向市场中更具周期性和被低估的板块。</p>
<p>截至目前，标普小型股 600 指数上涨了 6.8%，而同期标普 500 指数下跌了 0.49%。</p>
<p><strong>行业动态倾向于小盘股</strong></p>
<p>推动小盘股超越表现的一个关键因素是行业构成。今年表现最佳的能源行业在小盘指数中的权重大于大型基准指数。</p>
<p>在标普 600 小盘指数中，能源占比为 6.5%，而在标普 500 中仅为 3.5%。</p>
<p>较小的能源公司对油价上涨的敏感性也更强，从而放大了收益。今年大型能源股上涨了 29%，而小盘能源股飙升了 41%，突显了它们对商品价格波动的更高操作杠杆。</p>
<p>与此同时，科技行业——在大型股指数中占主导地位——表现不佳。</p>
<p>信息技术大约占标普 500 的三分之一，但在标普 600 中仅占 12%。</p>
<p>科技行业的相对疲软，部分与对人工智能估值的担忧有关，对大型股的影响更为显著。</p>
<p>尽管如此，小盘科技股仍然交出了强劲的回报，形成了不寻常的分歧。</p>
<p>即使排除所谓的 “七大巨头” 科技股，小盘股仍然持续超越，表明除了行业配置之外，还有更广泛的结构性因素在起作用。</p>
<p><strong>盈利周期和资本支出提升前景</strong></p>
<p>改善的盈利动能是支持小盘股表现的另一个关键因素。</p>
<p>小型公司正在受益于许多投资者认为的多年的盈利周期的早期阶段，这一周期由资本支出、生产力提升和回流趋势驱动。</p>
<p>Royce Investment Partners 的联合首席投资官兼董事总经理 Francis Gannon 在 BNN Bloomberg 报告中表示：“小盘股在过去一年表现相当不错。如果回顾一年前，正是市场在去年 4 月 8 日的关税恐慌中触底的时候。所以一年的数据相当强劲。”</p>
<p>他补充道：“话虽如此，我们仍然相信小盘股正处于一个将会是长期超越表现的开始阶段，这将由我们认为的非常强劲的盈利周期驱动。”</p>
<p>与人工智能采用相关的生产力提升，加上国内投资的增加，正在推动小型公司的利润扩张。政策支持也发挥了作用，税收激励鼓励资本支出。</p>
<p>Gannon 强调了这些趋势的重要性，指出：“这是来自人工智能采用的生产力，但当你查看推动小盘股盈利的不同因素时，可能包括从人工智能和生产力提升到利润改善，以及回流。”</p>
<p>他进一步强调了投资周期的强劲，表示：“资本支出故事非常强大。在去年签署的 ‘一项伟大而美丽的法案’ 中，你可以看到资本支出和研究的 100% 折旧。这开启了我们认为将是一个强劲的资本支出周期，我们预计这一趋势将持续。”</p>
<p><strong>估值、轮换和市场结构支持收益</strong></p>
<p>估值动态也在发挥重要作用。小盘股的交易倍数通常低于大型股，这一折扣吸引了寻求拥挤的巨头交易之外机会的投资者。</p>
<p>从大型科技股的轮换进一步支持了小型公司。随着投资者多样化投资组合并降低集中风险，资本越来越多地流入被低估的市场板块。</p>
<p>Gannon 指出这一变化，表示：“小盘股的一个理由就是从这些领域的轮换。我们看到市场正在扩大。”</p>
<p>他补充道：“小盘股在估值基础上也比大型股便宜，即使在过去一年的涨幅之后。将这一点与我们认为的长期盈利周期的开始结合起来，形成了一个引人注目的故事。”</p>
<p>小盘指数的构成也在不断演变。虽然仍有相当一部分小型公司处于亏损状态，但市场越来越青睐于盈利和现金流强劲的高质量公司。</p>
<p>Gannon 指出：“我们的投资方式是关注那些有盈利、现金流和强大基本面的公司。”</p>
<p>这种向高质量公司的转变，加上基本面的改善和有利的宏观趋势，进一步加强了小盘股持续超越表现的理由。</p>
<p>随着市场适应不断变化的经济条件和演变的行业领导力，小盘股似乎正受益于周期性和结构性顺风的交汇——使其成为当前环境中投资者关注的关键领域。</p>

标普 600 小盘价值股 ETF - iShares

罗素 2000 价值股指数 ETF - iShares

罗素 2000 成长股指数 ETF - iShares

<p>美国小盘股在 2026 年经历了显著的复苏，表现超过大盘股 8.5 个百分点，此前多年表现不佳。标普 600 小型股指数今年上涨了 6.8%，而标普 500 指数下跌了 0.49%。推动这一变化的关键因素包括有利于小盘股的行业动态、改善的盈利势头以及资金从大型科技股的轮换。小型公司受益于多年的盈利周期、生产力提升和支持性政策措施，从而对小盘股的表现展望乐观</p>

<p>US small-cap stocks are staging a notable comeback in 2026, outperforming their large-cap peers after years of lagging returns, as sector dynamics, valuation resets, and improving earnings prospects reshape market leadership.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国小盘股在 2026 年正经历显著反弹，经过多年的回报滞后后，表现优于大型股，行业动态、估值重置和改善的盈利前景正在重塑市场领导力。</p>
</div><p>So far this year, small caps have outperformed large caps by 8.5 percentage points, marking a sharp reversal after roughly six years of underperformance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至今年，小盘股的表现比大型股高出 8.5 个百分点，标志着在大约六年的表现不佳后出现了急剧反转。</p>
</div><p>The shift comes amid broader changes in investor positioning, with capital rotating away from large technology stocks and toward more cyclical and undervalued segments of the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一变化发生在投资者定位的更广泛变化中，资本正在从大型科技股转向市场中更具周期性和被低估的板块。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index has gained 6.8% in the year so far, while the S&amp;P 500 in the same time is down 0.49%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，标普小型股 600 指数上涨了 6.8%，而同期标普 500 指数下跌了 0.49%。</p>
</div><p><strong>Sector dynamics tilt in favor of small caps</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>行业动态倾向于小盘股</strong></p>
</div><p>A key driver of the outperformance has been sector composition. Energy, the best-performing sector this year, carries a larger weight in small-cap indices than in large-cap benchmarks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推动小盘股超越表现的一个关键因素是行业构成。今年表现最佳的能源行业在小盘指数中的权重大于大型基准指数。</p>
</div><p>It accounts for 6.5% of the S&amp;P 600 small-cap index compared with 3.5% in the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在标普 600 小盘指数中，能源占比为 6.5%，而在标普 500 中仅为 3.5%。</p>
</div><p>Smaller energy companies have also proven more sensitive to rising oil prices, amplifying gains. While large-cap energy stocks are up 29% this year, small-cap energy names have surged 41%, highlighting their higher operational leverage to commodity price movements.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>较小的能源公司对油价上涨的敏感性也更强，从而放大了收益。今年大型能源股上涨了 29%，而小盘能源股飙升了 41%，突显了它们对商品价格波动的更高操作杠杆。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, technology — a dominant sector in large-cap indices — has underperformed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，科技行业——在大型股指数中占主导地位——表现不佳。</p>
</div><p>Information technology makes up roughly a third of the S&amp;P 500 but only 12% of the S&amp;P 600.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>信息技术大约占标普 500 的三分之一，但在标普 600 中仅占 12%。</p>
</div><p>The relative weakness in tech, partly linked to concerns around artificial intelligence valuations, has weighed more heavily on large caps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科技行业的相对疲软，部分与对人工智能估值的担忧有关，对大型股的影响更为显著。</p>
</div><p>Despite this, small-cap technology stocks have delivered strong returns, creating an unusual divergence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，小盘科技股仍然交出了强劲的回报，形成了不寻常的分歧。</p>
</div><p>Even excluding the so-called “Magnificent 7” megacap tech stocks, small caps continue to outperform, suggesting that broader structural factors are at play beyond sector allocation alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使排除所谓的 “七大巨头” 科技股，小盘股仍然持续超越，表明除了行业配置之外，还有更广泛的结构性因素在起作用。</p>
</div><p><strong>Earnings cycle and capital spending boost outlook</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>盈利周期和资本支出提升前景</strong></p>
</div><p>Improving earnings momentum is another critical factor supporting small-cap performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>改善的盈利动能是支持小盘股表现的另一个关键因素。</p>
</div><p>Smaller companies are benefiting from what many investors see as the early stages of a multi-year earnings cycle, driven by capital spending, productivity gains, and reshoring trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>小型公司正在受益于许多投资者认为的多年的盈利周期的早期阶段，这一周期由资本支出、生产力提升和回流趋势驱动。</p>
</div><p>Francis Gannon, co-chief investment officer and managing director at Royce Investment Partners, said in a BNN Bloomberg report, “Small caps have outperformed quite nicely over the past year. If you go back a year ago, it was right when the market bottomed around the tariff tantrum, if you will, on April 8 of last year. So the one-year number has been quite strong.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Royce Investment Partners 的联合首席投资官兼董事总经理 Francis Gannon 在 BNN Bloomberg 报告中表示：“小盘股在过去一年表现相当不错。如果回顾一年前，正是市场在去年 4 月 8 日的关税恐慌中触底的时候。所以一年的数据相当强劲。”</p>
</div><p>He added, “That being said, we continue to believe small caps are at the beginning of what will be a prolonged period of outperformance, driven by what we think will be a very strong earnings cycle.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他补充道：“话虽如此，我们仍然相信小盘股正处于一个将会是长期超越表现的开始阶段，这将由我们认为的非常强劲的盈利周期驱动。”</p>
</div><p>Productivity improvements linked to artificial intelligence adoption, alongside increased domestic investment, are contributing to margin expansion for smaller firms. Policy support has also played a role, with tax incentives encouraging capital expenditure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与人工智能采用相关的生产力提升，加上国内投资的增加，正在推动小型公司的利润扩张。政策支持也发挥了作用，税收激励鼓励资本支出。</p>
</div><p>Gannon highlighted the importance of these trends, noting, “It’s productivity coming from AI adoption, but also when you look at the different factors driving small-cap earnings, it could be everything from AI and productivity gains to margin improvements, as well as reshoring.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Gannon 强调了这些趋势的重要性，指出：“这是来自人工智能采用的生产力，但当你查看推动小盘股盈利的不同因素时，可能包括从人工智能和生产力提升到利润改善，以及回流。”</p>
</div><p>He further emphasized the strength of the investment cycle, stating, “The CapEx story is a really powerful one. In the ‘One Big, Beautiful Bill’ signed into law last year, you saw 100 per cent depreciation on capital expenditures as well as research. That’s starting what we think will be a strong CapEx cycle, and we expect that to continue.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他进一步强调了投资周期的强劲，表示：“资本支出故事非常强大。在去年签署的 ‘一项伟大而美丽的法案’ 中，你可以看到资本支出和研究的 100% 折旧。这开启了我们认为将是一个强劲的资本支出周期，我们预计这一趋势将持续。”</p>
</div><p><strong>Valuations, rotation and market structure support gains</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>估值、轮换和市场结构支持收益</strong></p>
</div><p>Valuation dynamics are also playing a significant role. Small-cap stocks tend to trade at lower multiples than large caps, and this discount has attracted investors seeking opportunities outside crowded megacap trades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>估值动态也在发挥重要作用。小盘股的交易倍数通常低于大型股，这一折扣吸引了寻求拥挤的巨头交易之外机会的投资者。</p>
</div><p>The rotation away from large technology stocks has further supported smaller companies. As investors diversify portfolios and reduce concentration risk, capital has increasingly flowed into under-owned segments of the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从大型科技股的轮换进一步支持了小型公司。随着投资者多样化投资组合并降低集中风险，资本越来越多地流入被低估的市场板块。</p>
</div><p>Gannon pointed to this shift, saying, “Part of the case for small caps is that rotation away from those areas. We’re seeing a broadening of the market.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Gannon 指出这一变化，表示：“小盘股的一个理由就是从这些领域的轮换。我们看到市场正在扩大。”</p>
</div><p>He added, “Small caps are also cheaper on a valuation basis than large caps, even after the gains over the past year. Combine that with what we see as the start of a prolonged earnings cycle, and it creates a compelling story.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他补充道：“小盘股在估值基础上也比大型股便宜，即使在过去一年的涨幅之后。将这一点与我们认为的长期盈利周期的开始结合起来，形成了一个引人注目的故事。”</p>
</div><p>The composition of small-cap indices is also evolving. While a significant portion of smaller companies remain unprofitable, the market is increasingly favoring higher-quality firms with strong earnings and cash flow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>小盘指数的构成也在不断演变。虽然仍有相当一部分小型公司处于亏损状态，但市场越来越青睐于盈利和现金流强劲的高质量公司。</p>
</div><p>Gannon noted, “The way we invest is in companies with earnings, cash flow, and strong fundamentals.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Gannon 指出：“我们的投资方式是关注那些有盈利、现金流和强大基本面的公司。”</p>
</div><p>This shift toward quality, combined with improving fundamentals and favorable macro trends, has strengthened the case for continued small-cap outperformance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种向高质量公司的转变，加上基本面的改善和有利的宏观趋势，进一步加强了小盘股持续超越表现的理由。</p>
</div><p>As markets adjust to changing economic conditions and evolving sector leadership, small-cap stocks appear to be benefiting from a confluence of cyclical and structural tailwinds — positioning them as a key area of focus for investors in the current environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着市场适应不断变化的经济条件和演变的行业领导力，小盘股似乎正受益于周期性和结构性顺风的交汇——使其成为当前环境中投资者关注的关键领域。</p>
</div>

美国小盘股大幅上涨：当前市场转变的驱动力是什么