<blockquote>
<p><em>Questor</em> <em>,《每日电讯报》的投资专栏，每周观察市场动态——是什么推动了市场，未来会发生什么，以及这一切将如何影响您的投资组合和财务目标。</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>如果有一个行业是投资银行（“卖方”）和机构基金经理（“买方”）一致认为今年是明智投资的，那就是银行业。</p>
<p>尽管有一些显著的逆势例外，但大多数关于大型贷款机构的评论语气是积极的。</p>
<p>这一年比预期的更加波动——尤其是由于中东战争——但即便在这种情况下，投资者也可以理解对该行业感到失望。</p>
<p>在经历了多年的牛市后，FTSE 350 银行指数在今年迄今为止下跌。截至撰写时，它在 FTSE 350 的 38 个工业分类中仅排第 16 位。</p>
<p>考虑到老市场谚语——“在 ‘好’ 行业中的 ‘坏’ 股票将优于在 ‘坏’ 行业中的 ‘好’ 股票”——值得回顾一下银行的牛市和熊市案例。</p>
<h2>好时光</h2>
<p>分析师预计，银行将产生近四分之一的 FTSE 100 预计的 2026 年税前总利润，并支付五分之一的股息。贷款机构对英国股市的重要性不亚于适当定价的信贷供应对国家经济引擎的推动作用。</p>
<p>在这方面，很容易理解为什么银行的股票表现如此良好。</p>
<p>首先，大型贷款机构重新赢得了投资者的青睐。它们的税前利润在 2025 年达到了 507 亿英镑，创下历史新高，分析师预计 2026 年和 2027 年将进一步增长。</p>
<p>其次，大型银行通过丰厚的现金回报（包括股息和股票回购）重新赢得了投资者的青睐。</p>
<p>通过这两种机制，2025 年的总回报为 310 亿英镑，是五大银行（巴克莱、汇丰、劳埃德、国家西敏寺和渣打）有史以来的第二高金额，相当于基于其当前股市估值的 7.5% 的现金收益率。</p>
<p>最后，至少在年初，宏观经济环境看起来是良性的。</p>
<p>利率缓慢下降，结构性对冲锁定了健康的净利差，而贷款损失则较小，监管罚款有限——对于那些拥有投资银行业务的银行来说，金融市场也很繁荣。</p>
<p>这种组合支撑了分析师对 2026 年和 2027 年更高利润和股息的预测。</p>
<h2>困难时期</h2>
<p>今年 FTSE 350 银行指数的下跌可能只是一个小波动，但投资者在评估银行股票的风险回报特征时需要考虑一些担忧。</p>
<p>首先，由于表现良好，股票的价格不再像以前那样便宜。</p>
<p>巴克莱、汇丰、劳埃德、国家西敏寺和渣打在本十年初以大幅折扣交易于有形净资产价值，而在今年早些时候的高点，它们的交易价格均超过了账面价值。</p>
<p>此外，只有国家西敏寺的预计股息收益率目前超过了 10 年期国债收益率。</p>
<p>其次，汇丰已暂停其回购计划，以消化其 136 亿美元（101 亿英镑）收购香港恒生银行 37% 股份的交易。</p>
<p>国家西敏寺在以 27 亿英镑收购 Evelyn Partners 后，也宣布暂停其当前的回购计划。</p>
<p>这可能意味着银行的总回购在 2026 年将连续第二年下降，市场对此动量的变化非常敏感，尤其是它们可能更倾向于回购的安全性，而不是收购所带来的风险。</p>
<p>最后，宏观经济环境看起来不那么确定，主要是由于中东战争。</p>
<p>利率可能会保持较高水平以支持净利差，但由于能源价格上涨导致的任何经济放缓可能会导致贷款损失增加，从而抵消额外的利息收入。</p>
<p>此外，银行股在美国和欧洲表现疲软——尽管在经历了一段长时间的强劲表现后。</p>
<p>其中一些可能是由于对贷款机构在私人信贷和私募股权方面的风险的担忧——无论是通过它们的贷款组合还是它们的投资银行业务。</p>
<p>贷款机构继续反驳这种说法，并声称美国一些高调的企业失败是高收益贷款业务的一部分。</p>
<p>其中一些可能只是对通货膨胀、利率以及最重要的增长的更广泛担忧，如果中东战争持续时间超过预期，油气价格保持高位，从而损害消费者的现金流和企业利润率。</p>
<p>霍尔木兹海峡的迅速解决至少可以消除一个担忧，并给银行提供机会，证明它们可以在全球金融危机首次出现二十年后，可靠地提供利润和股息。</p>

HUKX

BNKR

VUKE

L100

RUKS

<p>Questor 的投资专栏讨论了当前银行业的状况，强调了积极和消极的方面。分析师预测，银行将在 2026 年对 FTSE 100 的利润和分红做出重要贡献。然而，FTSE 350 银行指数今年有所下降，引发了对股票估值和未来回购的担忧。地缘政治紧张局势和经济不确定性等因素可能会影响贷款损失和整体市场表现。投资者被建议在这些挑战中权衡银行股票的风险和回报</p>

<blockquote>
<p><em>Questor</em> <em>, The Telegraph’s investing column, takes a weekly view of the markets – what is moving them, what lies ahead and how all of this could affect your portfolios and financial goals.</em></p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p><em>Questor</em> <em>,《每日电讯报》的投资专栏，每周观察市场动态——是什么推动了市场，未来会发生什么，以及这一切将如何影响您的投资组合和财务目标。</em></p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>If there was one sector which investment banks (“sell side”) and institutional fund managers (“buy side”) agreed was a smart investment this year, it was the banks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果有一个行业是投资银行（“卖方”）和机构基金经理（“买方”）一致认为今年是明智投资的，那就是银行业。</p>
</div><p>While there were notable, contrarian exceptions, the tone of most commentary on the big lenders was positive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管有一些显著的逆势例外，但大多数关于大型贷款机构的评论语气是积极的。</p>
</div><p>It is proving a more volatile year than anticipated – not least thanks to the war in the Middle East – but even in this context, investors could be forgiven for being disappointed with the sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一年比预期的更加波动——尤其是由于中东战争——但即便在这种情况下，投资者也可以理解对该行业感到失望。</p>
</div><p>After a multi-year bull run, the FTSE 350 Banks index is down in the year to date. At the time of writing, it sits just 16th out of the 38 industrial groupings that comprise the FTSE 350.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经历了多年的牛市后，FTSE 350 银行指数在今年迄今为止下跌。截至撰写时，它在 FTSE 350 的 38 个工业分类中仅排第 16 位。</p>
</div><p>In view of the old market saying – “a ‘bad’ stock in a ‘good’ sector will outperform a ‘good’ stock in a ‘bad’ sector” – it is worth reviewing the bull and bear case for the banks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到老市场谚语——“在 ‘好’ 行业中的 ‘坏’ 股票将优于在 ‘坏’ 行业中的 ‘好’ 股票”——值得回顾一下银行的牛市和熊市案例。</p>
</div><h2>Good times</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>好时光</h2>
</div><p>Analysts expect banks to generate almost a quarter of the FTSE 100’s forecast aggregate pre-tax profit for 2026 and pay out a fifth of its dividends. Lenders matter to the UK equity market as much as the supply of appropriately priced credit helps to grease the gears of the nation’s economic engine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师预计，银行将产生近四分之一的 FTSE 100 预计的 2026 年税前总利润，并支付五分之一的股息。贷款机构对英国股市的重要性不亚于适当定价的信贷供应对国家经济引擎的推动作用。</p>
</div><p>In this respect, it is easy to see why the banks’ shares had done so well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这方面，很容易理解为什么银行的股票表现如此良好。</p>
</div><p>First, the big lenders have earned their way back into investors’ affections. Their combined pre-tax profits came to £50.7bn in 2025, a record high, and analysts have pencilled in further increases for 2026 and 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，大型贷款机构重新赢得了投资者的青睐。它们的税前利润在 2025 年达到了 507 亿英镑，创下历史新高，分析师预计 2026 年和 2027 年将进一步增长。</p>
</div><p>Second, the big banks have also paid their way back into investors’ affections with bumper cash returns in the form of both dividends and share buybacks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，大型银行通过丰厚的现金回报（包括股息和股票回购）重新赢得了投资者的青睐。</p>
</div><p>The total return via the combined mechanisms in 2025 was £31bn, the second-highest sum ever from the big five (Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, NatWest and Standard Chartered) and equivalent to a cash yield of 7.5pc based on their current stock market valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过这两种机制，2025 年的总回报为 310 亿英镑，是五大银行（巴克莱、汇丰、劳埃德、国家西敏寺和渣打）有史以来的第二高金额，相当于基于其当前股市估值的 7.5% 的现金收益率。</p>
</div><p>Finally, at the start of the year at least, the macroeconomic environment looked benign.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，至少在年初，宏观经济环境看起来是良性的。</p>
</div><p>Interest rates were declining slowly, structural hedges locked in healthy net interest margins while loan losses were muted, regulatory fines were limited and – for those with investment banking operations – financial markets were buoyant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率缓慢下降，结构性对冲锁定了健康的净利差，而贷款损失则较小，监管罚款有限——对于那些拥有投资银行业务的银行来说，金融市场也很繁荣。</p>
</div><p>That combination underpinned analysts’ forecasts for higher profits and dividends in 2026 and 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种组合支撑了分析师对 2026 年和 2027 年更高利润和股息的预测。</p>
</div><h2>Hard times</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>困难时期</h2>
</div><p>This year’s drop in the FTSE 350 Banks index might be a blip, but there are concerns investors need to consider as they assess the risk-reward profile of the banks’ shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年 FTSE 350 银行指数的下跌可能只是一个小波动，但投资者在评估银行股票的风险回报特征时需要考虑一些担忧。</p>
</div><p>First, the stocks are no longer as cheap as they were, thanks to the fact that they have done so well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，由于表现良好，股票的价格不再像以前那样便宜。</p>
</div><p>Each of Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, NatWest and Standard Chartered began this decade trading at big discounts to tangible net asset value whereas, at their highs earlier this year, they all traded at a premium to book value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴克莱、汇丰、劳埃德、国家西敏寺和渣打在本十年初以大幅折扣交易于有形净资产价值，而在今年早些时候的高点，它们的交易价格均超过了账面价值。</p>
</div><p>In addition, only NatWest’s forecast dividend yield currently exceeds the 10-year gilt yield.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，只有国家西敏寺的预计股息收益率目前超过了 10 年期国债收益率。</p>
</div><p>Second, HSBC has brought its buyback programme to a halt while it digests its $13.6bn (£10.1bn) purchase of the 37pc stake in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Bank that it did not already own.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，汇丰已暂停其回购计划，以消化其 136 亿美元（101 亿英镑）收购香港恒生银行 37% 股份的交易。</p>
</div><p>NatWest has also declared a pause after its current programme following its £2.7bn swoop for Evelyn Partners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国家西敏寺在以 27 亿英镑收购 Evelyn Partners 后，也宣布暂停其当前的回购计划。</p>
</div><p>That may mean total buybacks from the banks decline for the second year in a row in 2026 and the markets are proving sensitive to this shift in momentum, not least as they may prefer the safety of buybacks to the risks associated with acquisitions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这可能意味着银行的总回购在 2026 年将连续第二年下降，市场对此动量的变化非常敏感，尤其是它们可能更倾向于回购的安全性，而不是收购所带来的风险。</p>
</div><p>Finally, the macroeconomic environment looks less certain, mainly thanks to the war in the Middle East.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，宏观经济环境看起来不那么确定，主要是由于中东战争。</p>
</div><p>Interest rates may stay higher for longer to support net interest margins but any economic slowdown because of higher energy prices could lead to an increase in loan losses that offsets the extra interest income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率可能会保持较高水平以支持净利差，但由于能源价格上涨导致的任何经济放缓可能会导致贷款损失增加，从而抵消额外的利息收入。</p>
</div><p>In addition, banking stocks are weak in the US and Europe – albeit again after a long, storming run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，银行股在美国和欧洲表现疲软——尽管在经历了一段长时间的强劲表现后。</p>
</div><p>Some of this may be because of fears over the lenders’ exposures to private credit and private equity – either through their loan books or their investment banking operations – where they have them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其中一些可能是由于对贷款机构在私人信贷和私募股权方面的风险的担忧——无论是通过它们的贷款组合还是它们的投资银行业务。</p>
</div><p>The lenders continue to rebut such suggestions and assert that a couple of high-profile corporate failures in the US are part and parcel of the business of high-yield lending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>贷款机构继续反驳这种说法，并声称美国一些高调的企业失败是高收益贷款业务的一部分。</p>
</div><p>Some of it may just be wider worries about inflation, interest rates and above all growth, should the Middle East war last for longer than hoped and oil and gas prices stay elevated as a result, to the detriment of consumers’ cash flows and corporate profit margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其中一些可能只是对通货膨胀、利率以及最重要的增长的更广泛担忧，如果中东战争持续时间超过预期，油气价格保持高位，从而损害消费者的现金流和企业利润率。</p>
</div><p>A speedy resolution in the Strait of Hormuz could at least remove one worry and give the banks the chance to prove that they can be reliable providers of profits and dividends, two decades on from the first rumblings of the Global Financial Crisis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍尔木兹海峡的迅速解决至少可以消除一个担忧，并给银行提供机会，证明它们可以在全球金融危机首次出现二十年后，可靠地提供利润和股息。</p>
</div>

投资者还能依靠大银行吗？