<p>由于投资者重新评估与唐纳德·特朗普决定在与伊朗的和平谈判破裂后下令封锁霍尔木兹海峡相关的地缘政治风险，新兴市场资产下跌。MSCI 新兴市场股票指数下跌 0.8%，包括三星电子（SSNLF）和腾讯控股（TCEHY）在内的科技股对疲软表现有所贡献，因为油价上涨引发了对通胀和增长的担忧。货币市场也反映出类似的压力，南非兰特和印度卢比均下跌约 0.7%，这表明投资者正在撤回对高风险资产的投资。</p>
<p>情绪的变化似乎与油价密切相关，油价重新攀升至每桶 100 美元以上，因为对前往伊朗港口的船只的限制威胁加深了供应中断。这一变化重新引发了通胀担忧，尤其是对能源进口国而言，持续的高油价可能迫使对美元的需求增加。上周停火后新兴市场的反弹，曾使股票上涨至 2020 年以来的最高水平，现在因市场权衡潜在的长期能源冲击而中断。</p>
<p>即使在回调中，市场定价仍表明投资者可能仍在期待进一步的外交接触，因为下跌幅度相对有限，且新兴市场指数仍高于停火前水平。匈牙利作为一个显著的例外，福林汇率上涨超过 2%，当地资产在一次决定性选举结果后上涨，该结果为亲欧盟的反对党提供了强有力的授权。这一结果可能支持更快获得欧盟资金，并使匈牙利债券在新兴市场中表现较好，突显出特定国家的发展仍能在更广泛的风险规避环境中驱动差异。</p>

西方石油

SMSN

南方两倍做空三星

<p>新兴市场资产下跌了 0.8%，因为在唐纳德·特朗普封锁霍尔木兹海峡后，地缘政治紧张局势升级。油价上涨，目前已超过每桶 100 美元，引发了对通货膨胀的担忧，尤其是对能源进口国而言。MSCI 新兴市场股票指数下滑，三星和腾讯等科技股对下跌起到了推动作用。货币市场也反映了这种风险厌恶，南非兰特和印度卢比均下跌了 0.7%。然而，匈牙利福林在亲欧盟选举结果后上涨超过 2%，突显了在风险规避环境中各国之间的差异</p>

<p>Emerging-market assets moved lower as investors reassessed risk following a geopolitical escalation tied to Donald Trump's decision to order a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after peace talks with Iran broke down. The MSCI EM equity index declined 0.8%, with technology names including Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) and Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) contributing to the weakness as rising oil prices raised concerns about inflation and growth. Currency markets reflected similar pressure, with South Africa's rand and India's rupee both down about 0.7%, suggesting investors are pulling back from higher-risk exposures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于投资者重新评估与唐纳德·特朗普决定在与伊朗的和平谈判破裂后下令封锁霍尔木兹海峡相关的地缘政治风险，新兴市场资产下跌。MSCI 新兴市场股票指数下跌 0.8%，包括三星电子（SSNLF）和腾讯控股（TCEHY）在内的科技股对疲软表现有所贡献，因为油价上涨引发了对通胀和增长的担忧。货币市场也反映出类似的压力，南非兰特和印度卢比均下跌约 0.7%，这表明投资者正在撤回对高风险资产的投资。</p>
</div><p>The shift in sentiment appears closely tied to oil, which climbed back above $100 per barrel as restrictions on vessels calling at Iranian ports threatened to deepen supply disruptions. That move is reintroducing inflation concerns, particularly for energy-importing economies, where sustained higher crude prices could force increased demand for US dollars. The rebound seen in emerging markets following last week's ceasefire, which had lifted equities by the most since 2020, has now been interrupted as markets weigh the potential for a prolonged energy shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>情绪的变化似乎与油价密切相关，油价重新攀升至每桶 100 美元以上，因为对前往伊朗港口的船只的限制威胁加深了供应中断。这一变化重新引发了通胀担忧，尤其是对能源进口国而言，持续的高油价可能迫使对美元的需求增加。上周停火后新兴市场的反弹，曾使股票上涨至 2020 年以来的最高水平，现在因市场权衡潜在的长期能源冲击而中断。</p>
</div><p>Even with the pullback, market pricing suggests investors may still be holding out for further diplomatic engagement, as the decline has remained relatively contained and the EM index is still above pre-ceasefire levels. Hungary stood out as a notable exception, with the forint strengthening more than 2% and local assets advancing after a decisive election outcome delivered a strong mandate to a pro-European opposition party. That result could support faster access to European Union funding and has positioned Hungarian bonds among the better performers in emerging markets, highlighting how country-specific developments can still drive divergence within a broader risk-off environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在回调中，市场定价仍表明投资者可能仍在期待进一步的外交接触，因为下跌幅度相对有限，且新兴市场指数仍高于停火前水平。匈牙利作为一个显著的例外，福林汇率上涨超过 2%，当地资产在一次决定性选举结果后上涨，该结果为亲欧盟的反对党提供了强有力的授权。这一结果可能支持更快获得欧盟资金，并使匈牙利债券在新兴市场中表现较好，突显出特定国家的发展仍能在更广泛的风险规避环境中驱动差异。</p>
</div>

EM Stocks Drop 0.8% As Oil Tops $100 After Trump Blockade

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Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. Sponsored GDR

FGX原油

XL二南三星-U

炼油公司指数 ETF - VanEck Vectors

能源业 ETF - Vanguard

美国石油设备与服务 ETF - iShares

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

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南方两倍做多三星

XI二南三星-U

美国布伦特原油期货基金

F三星原油期

腾讯控股(ADR)

由于特朗普的封锁措施，油价突破 100 美元，新兴市场股票下跌 0.8%