<p>胡志明市——根据分析师的说法，2026 年初，银行间利率保持在高位，反映出流动性条件的紧缩，因为信贷增长继续超过存款动员。</p>
<p>2 月初，银行间隔夜贷款利率飙升至 17%，为近十年来的最高水平，随后有所回落。然而，利率仍然波动，4 月初的隔夜利率仍徘徊在 9% 左右。</p>
<p>银行间市场是信贷机构相互借贷以满足短期流动性需求的地方，在经历了一段强劲的信贷扩张后，面临越来越大的压力。</p>
<p>根据总统计局的数据，截至 3 月底，信贷增长达到 2.15%，而存款增长仅为 0.44%。这种差异加大了银行系统的资金缺口。</p>
<p>在胡志明市，这种不平衡更加明显，第一季度存款增长仅为 0.1%，而信贷扩张为 1.5%，根据越南国家银行（SBV）的数据。</p>
<p>因此，几家银行的贷款与存款比率超过了 100%，增加了对银行间借贷的依赖，并推高了资金成本。</p>
<p>越南外贸银行证券的分析师指出，自 2025 年下半年以来，流动性压力不断加大，特别是在中小型股份制银行中。</p>
<p>分析师表示：“当银行吸收短期冲击的能力减弱时，它们对银行间资金的依赖加大，从而导致利率上升。”</p>
<p>作为回应，SBV 积极部署货币工具以支持流动性，包括通过公开市场操作注入资金。在某些时候，中央银行提供了高达 37 万亿越南盾（14 亿美元）的短期贷款，期限延长。</p>
<p>然而，流动性管理因汇率压力而变得复杂。SBV 最近以每美元 26,850 越南盾的汇率进行了 180 天期限的美元远期销售，以努力在强势美元和全球不确定性中稳定本币。</p>
<p>根据新韩证券的分析师阮欢年（Nguyễn Hoàn Niên）的说法，虽然这一措施有助于缓解汇率压力，但也有效地吸收了一部分越南盾流动性，导致银行系统的条件更加紧张。</p>
<p>市场观察者还强调了 “局部流动性短缺” 的问题，即资金未能有效地从流动性过剩的银行重新分配到面临赤字的银行，延长了银行间市场的紧张状况。</p>
<p>尽管银行间利率上升，但其向零售存款利率的传导仍然不均衡。</p>
<p>专家指出，越南两个市场之间的关系并不总是遵循传统模式，部分原因是结构特征和利率上限等监管措施。</p>
<p>利息收入继续占越南银行总收入的显著份额，约为 70-80%，而许多国际同行的比例约为 30%，使得该系统对资金成本波动更加敏感。</p>
<p>持续高企的银行间利率预计将对银行的净利差施加压力，促使贷款机构多元化收入来源，包括扩大消费贷款和基于费用的服务。</p>
<p>分析师预测，银行间利率在短期内不太可能大幅下降，预计一个月的期限将稳定在 6.8-7%。存款利率预计将在每年 7% 到 9% 之间，具体取决于银行。</p>
<p>在持续的汇率压力和有限的政策空间背景下，专家表示，短期内回到前几年低利率环境的可能性不大，这意味着企业和投资者将面临持续的高融资成本。——越南新闻社（VNS）</p>

VNAM

越南 ETF - VanEck Vectors

XFVT

<p>越南的银行间利率在 2026 年初保持高位，因流动性紧缩，隔夜利率在 2 月份达到 17% 的峰值，随后在 4 月份稳定在约 9%。信贷增长超过存款增长，导致资金缺口，尤其是在胡志明市。越南国家银行正在使用货币工具来支持流动性，但汇率压力使管理变得复杂。分析师预测，银行间利率将保持高位，影响银行的净利差，并促使其转向多元化收入来源。近期回归低利率的可能性不大</p>

<p>HCM CITY — Interbank interest rates have remained elevated in the first months of 2026, reflecting tightening liquidity conditions as credit growth continues to outpace deposit mobilisation, according to analysts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>胡志明市——根据分析师的说法，2026 年初，银行间利率保持在高位，反映出流动性条件的紧缩，因为信贷增长继续超过存款动员。</p>
</div><p>Overnight lending rates between banks surged to as high as 17 per cent in early February, the highest level in roughly a decade, before easing. However, rates have stayed volatile, with overnight levels still hovering around 9 per cent in early April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2 月初，银行间隔夜贷款利率飙升至 17%，为近十年来的最高水平，随后有所回落。然而，利率仍然波动，4 月初的隔夜利率仍徘徊在 9% 左右。</p>
</div><p>The interbank market, where credit institutions borrow from one another to meet short-term liquidity needs, has come under increasing strain following a period of strong credit expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银行间市场是信贷机构相互借贷以满足短期流动性需求的地方，在经历了一段强劲的信贷扩张后，面临越来越大的压力。</p>
</div><p>Data from the General Statistics Office show that as of the end of March, credit growth reached 2.15 per cent, while deposit growth lagged behind at just 0.44 per cent. This divergence has widened funding gaps across the banking system.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据总统计局的数据，截至 3 月底，信贷增长达到 2.15%，而存款增长仅为 0.44%。这种差异加大了银行系统的资金缺口。</p>
</div><p>The imbalance is more pronounced in HCM City, where deposit growth stood at only 0.1 per cent in the first quarter, compared to a 1.5 per cent credit expansion, according to the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在胡志明市，这种不平衡更加明显，第一季度存款增长仅为 0.1%，而信贷扩张为 1.5%，根据越南国家银行（SBV）的数据。</p>
</div><p>As a result, loan-to-deposit ratios at several banks have exceeded 100 per cent, increasing reliance on interbank borrowing and pushing up funding costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，几家银行的贷款与存款比率超过了 100%，增加了对银行间借贷的依赖，并推高了资金成本。</p>
</div><p>Analysts at Vietcombank Securities noted that liquidity pressures have been building since the second half of 2025, particularly among small and mid-sized joint-stock banks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>越南外贸银行证券的分析师指出，自 2025 年下半年以来，流动性压力不断加大，特别是在中小型股份制银行中。</p>
</div><p>“When banks’ capacity to absorb short-term shocks weakens, they become more dependent on interbank funding, contributing to higher interest rates,” the analysts said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师表示：“当银行吸收短期冲击的能力减弱时，它们对银行间资金的依赖加大，从而导致利率上升。”</p>
</div><p>In response, the SBV has actively deployed monetary tools to support liquidity, including injecting funds through open market operations. At times, the central bank has offered up to VNĐ37 trillion (US$1.4 billion) in short-term lending with extended tenors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为回应，SBV 积极部署货币工具以支持流动性，包括通过公开市场操作注入资金。在某些时候，中央银行提供了高达 37 万亿越南盾（14 亿美元）的短期贷款，期限延长。</p>
</div><p>However, liquidity management has been complicated by exchange-rate pressures. The SBV has recently conducted forward sales of US dollars with 180-day tenors at a rate of VNĐ26,850 per dollar in an effort to stabilise the domestic currency amid a strong US dollar and global uncertainties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，流动性管理因汇率压力而变得复杂。SBV 最近以每美元 26,850 越南盾的汇率进行了 180 天期限的美元远期销售，以努力在强势美元和全球不确定性中稳定本币。</p>
</div><p>According to Nguyễn Hoàn Niên, an analyst at Shinhan Securities, while this measure helps ease exchange-rate pressure, it also effectively absorbs a portion of đồng liquidity, contributing to tighter conditions in the banking system.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据新韩证券的分析师阮欢年（Nguyễn Hoàn Niên）的说法，虽然这一措施有助于缓解汇率压力，但也有效地吸收了一部分越南盾流动性，导致银行系统的条件更加紧张。</p>
</div><p>Market observers also highlight the issue of “localised liquidity shortages”, where funds are not efficiently redistributed from banks with surplus liquidity to those facing deficits, prolonging tight conditions in the interbank market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场观察者还强调了 “局部流动性短缺” 的问题，即资金未能有效地从流动性过剩的银行重新分配到面临赤字的银行，延长了银行间市场的紧张状况。</p>
</div><p>Despite rising interbank rates, their transmission to retail deposit rates remains uneven.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管银行间利率上升，但其向零售存款利率的传导仍然不均衡。</p>
</div><p>Experts note that the relationship between the two markets in Việt Nam does not always follow conventional patterns, partly due to structural characteristics and regulatory measures such as interest rate caps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>专家指出，越南两个市场之间的关系并不总是遵循传统模式，部分原因是结构特征和利率上限等监管措施。</p>
</div><p>Interest income continues to account for a significant share, around 70-80 per cent, of Vietnamese banks’ total revenue, compared to about 30 per cent for many international peers, making the system more sensitive to funding cost fluctuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利息收入继续占越南银行总收入的显著份额，约为 70-80%，而许多国际同行的比例约为 30%，使得该系统对资金成本波动更加敏感。</p>
</div><p>Persistently high interbank rates are expected to put pressure on banks’ net interest margins, prompting lenders to diversify income sources, including expanding consumer lending and fee-based services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持续高企的银行间利率预计将对银行的净利差施加压力，促使贷款机构多元化收入来源，包括扩大消费贷款和基于费用的服务。</p>
</div><p>Analysts forecast that interbank rates are unlikely to decline sharply in the near term, with one-month tenors expected to stabilise around 6.8-7 per cent. Deposit rates are projected to range between 7 and 9 per cent per year, depending on the bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师预测，银行间利率在短期内不太可能大幅下降，预计一个月的期限将稳定在 6.8-7%。存款利率预计将在每年 7% 到 9% 之间，具体取决于银行。</p>
</div><p>In the context of ongoing exchange-rate pressures and limited policy room, experts say a return to the low interest-rate environment seen in previous years is unlikely in the short term, signalling continued higher funding costs for businesses and investors. — VNS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在持续的汇率压力和有限的政策空间背景下，专家表示，短期内回到前几年低利率环境的可能性不大，这意味着企业和投资者将面临持续的高融资成本。——越南新闻社（VNS）</p>
</div>

由于流动性压力，银行间利率仍然处于高位