<p>TradingKey - 美国锂矿股票在隔夜交易中领涨，Sigma Lithium (SGML) 领涨该行业，收盘上涨 17.1%；Lithium Americas (LAC) 上涨 7.62%；Albemarle (ALB) 上涨 6.79%；SQM (SQM) 收盘上涨 6.71%。</p>
<p>回顾过去一年，锂电池行业持续走高，经历了一波持续的反弹。在该行业中，Albemarle (ALB) 从美国与中国贸易战后的低点 48.57 美元飙升至今年的高点 205 美元。主要驱动因素是由于人工智能计算能力需求上升，能源存储需求超出预期。在此期间，碳酸锂期货从年中低点 59,000 元/吨反弹至 150,000 元/吨。然而，从近期表现来看，该行业似乎已经从之前单边上涨的趋势转变为更加波动的区间震荡阶段。</p>
<h2>影响股价波动的因素：</h2>
<p>目前，锂行业的运营逻辑正在发生转变。之前由能源存储行业叙事驱动的估值上行正在转向由供需基本面逻辑主导，受限于刚性供应约束和在能源危机及地缘政治博弈中同步扩张的需求。</p>
<p>自年初以来，反复的地缘政治冲突，特别是美国与伊朗对峙的升级，冲击了原油供应端。霍尔木兹海峡的长期封锁导致一些中东油田停产，推动中期油价基线上升至高位。</p>
<p>在这种背景下，市场对锂的需求因其成本效益和战略价值而日益突出。此外，一些分析师指出，如果中东冲突持续，作为需求最大组成部分的动力电池需求有望出现趋势性复苏。</p>
<p>与此同时，媒体报道称，智利即将打破依赖铜作为唯一经济支柱的传统，首次在下周的年度世界铜大会上举办专门的一天锂论坛。这一举措表明该国正在加速其资源多元化战略。</p>
<h2>2026 年下半年锂供应可能紧张</h2>
<p>美国与伊朗冲突对锂行业的主要影响不是可再生能源替代的叙事，而是对澳大利亚锂矿柴油供应链的直接干扰——这一生产停滞风险市场尚未完全定价。澳大利亚约占全球锂产能的 30%，其生产过程完全依赖柴油。近 90% 的柴油依赖进口，库存仅能覆盖 15 到 30 天，因此能源供应中断的风险至关重要。</p>
<p>此外，津巴布韦对锂矿石的出口禁令加剧了政策不确定性，而国内锂盐厂在一月和二月的计划维护，加上中国矿山生产重启的停滞，进一步限制了供应弹性。</p>
<p>因此，市场对 2026 年锂市场的预期已从轻微过剩转变为紧平衡甚至结构性短缺。这一转变是锂价和锂矿股票反弹的关键驱动因素。</p>
<h2>机构观点：锂供应预测集体下调</h2>
<p>股价上涨也受到主流机构下调锂供应预测的推动。最近，几家投资银行预测，随着锂供应保持紧张，锂价将进入上升轨道。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利发布研究报告，将其 2026 年锂供应预测下调至约 400,000 吨（低于年初大约 500,000 吨的初步估计）。该行预计市场供应将在 5 月至 8 月的旺季进一步收紧，预计从 9 月开始将出现短缺。总体而言，摩根士丹利预计锂价将在 2026 年下半年呈上升趋势，并指出当价格超过 250,000 元/吨时，需求弹性将显现。</p>
<p>花旗指出，最新的锂数据集显示，本周库存积累增加。该行预计，随着津巴布韦的供应影响可能显现，市场可能转向去库存；因此，近期压力应在接下来的 3 到 4 周内逐渐缓解。针对年初至今对新能源汽车（NEV）电池需求的担忧，Real Lithium 的数据显示，2026 年前两个月 NEV 电池安装同比增长 18%，主要受商用车强劲需求和每辆车电池容量增加的推动。考虑到未来几周月度供需动态应收紧，该行建议投资者买入锂。</p>
<h2>接下来需要关注什么？</h2>
<p>首先，必须关注需求端，包括持续的美国与伊朗冲突，因为高油价将推动动力电池需求上升。麦格理银行预测，受强劲的能源存储需求推动，全球锂需求将在本十年末保持超过 20% 的年复合增长率（CAGR），即使电动车增长放缓。</p>
<p>在供应端，应关注津巴布韦新实施的锂出口管制所带来的供应格局变化。其他因素包括地缘政治冲突导致的能源供应中断对澳大利亚锂矿产能的影响，以及因许可证到期暂停后，CATL 大规模锂矿的生产重启和产能释放的不确定性。</p>
<p>了解更多</p>

SGML

LITP

先进电池金属和材料 ETF - Amplify

ILIT

锂价指数 ETF - GlobalX

<p>美国锂矿股票在一夜之间飙升，Sigma Lithium 上涨了 17.1%。该行业已从持续的上升趋势转变为更为波动的阶段，受到影响石油供应的地缘政治冲突和对锂需求增加的影响。分析师预测，由于供应中断和政策不确定性，到 2026 年锂供应将紧张，导致价格上涨趋势。投资银行已下调供应预测，预计市场将出现赤字。现在的关注点在于需求动态，特别是来自美伊冲突和能源储存需求的影响，预计全球锂需求将超过 20% 的年复合增长率</p>

<p>TradingKey - U.S. lithium mining stocks led gains overnight, with Sigma Lithium (SGML) leading the sector to close up 17.1%; Lithium Americas (LAC) rose 7.62%; Albemarle (ALB) climbed 6.79%; and SQM (SQM) closed up 6.71%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 美国锂矿股票在隔夜交易中领涨，Sigma Lithium (SGML) 领涨该行业，收盘上涨 17.1%；Lithium Americas (LAC) 上涨 7.62%；Albemarle (ALB) 上涨 6.79%；SQM (SQM) 收盘上涨 6.71%。</p>
</div><p>Reflecting on the past year, the lithium battery sector has trended consistently higher, experiencing a sustained rally. Within the sector, Albemarle (ALB) also surged from its post-U.S.-China trade war low of $48.57 to a high of $205 this year. The key driver was higher-than-expected energy storage demand fueled by rising AI computing power needs. During this period, lithium carbonate futures rebounded from a mid-year low of 59,000 yuan per ton to 150,000 yuan per ton. However, judging by recent performance, the sector appears to have transitioned from its previous one-sided uptrend into a more volatile, range-bound phase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回顾过去一年，锂电池行业持续走高，经历了一波持续的反弹。在该行业中，Albemarle (ALB) 从美国与中国贸易战后的低点 48.57 美元飙升至今年的高点 205 美元。主要驱动因素是由于人工智能计算能力需求上升，能源存储需求超出预期。在此期间，碳酸锂期货从年中低点 59,000 元/吨反弹至 150,000 元/吨。然而，从近期表现来看，该行业似乎已经从之前单边上涨的趋势转变为更加波动的区间震荡阶段。</p>
</div><h2>Factors influencing stock price volatility:</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>影响股价波动的因素：</h2>
</div><p>Currently, the operational logic of the lithium sector is undergoing a transition. The valuation upside previously driven by the energy storage industry narrative is shifting toward a supply-demand fundamental logic, dominated by rigid supply constraints and synchronized demand expansion amid energy crises and geopolitical maneuvering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，锂行业的运营逻辑正在发生转变。之前由能源存储行业叙事驱动的估值上行正在转向由供需基本面逻辑主导，受限于刚性供应约束和在能源危机及地缘政治博弈中同步扩张的需求。</p>
</div><p>Since the start of the year, recurring geopolitical conflicts, particularly the escalation of the U.S.-Iran standoff, have shocked the crude oil supply side. The prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered production halts in some Middle Eastern oil fields, pushing the mid-term oil price baseline to elevated levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自年初以来，反复的地缘政治冲突，特别是美国与伊朗对峙的升级，冲击了原油供应端。霍尔木兹海峡的长期封锁导致一些中东油田停产，推动中期油价基线上升至高位。</p>
</div><p>In this context, market demand for lithium has become increasingly prominent due to its cost-effectiveness and strategic value. Furthermore, some analysts indicate that if the conflict in the Middle East persists, demand for power batteries—the largest component of demand—is poised for a trend-based recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，市场对锂的需求因其成本效益和战略价值而日益突出。此外，一些分析师指出，如果中东冲突持续，作为需求最大组成部分的动力电池需求有望出现趋势性复苏。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, media reports suggest that Chile is about to break its tradition of relying on copper as its sole economic pillar by hosting a dedicated one-day lithium forum for the first time at next week’s annual World Copper Conference. This move signals the country is accelerating its resource diversification strategy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，媒体报道称，智利即将打破依赖铜作为唯一经济支柱的传统，首次在下周的年度世界铜大会上举办专门的一天锂论坛。这一举措表明该国正在加速其资源多元化战略。</p>
</div><h2>Lithium supply may run tight in H2 2026</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2026 年下半年锂供应可能紧张</h2>
</div><p>The primary impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict on the lithium sector is not the narrative of renewable energy substitution, but a direct disruption to the diesel supply chain for Australian lithium mines—a production-halt risk exposure that the market has yet to fully price in. Australia accounts for roughly 30% of global lithium capacity, and its production process is entirely dependent on diesel. With nearly 90% of its diesel imported and inventories covering only 15 to 30 days, the risk of energy supply disruption is critical.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国与伊朗冲突对锂行业的主要影响不是可再生能源替代的叙事，而是对澳大利亚锂矿柴油供应链的直接干扰——这一生产停滞风险市场尚未完全定价。澳大利亚约占全球锂产能的 30%，其生产过程完全依赖柴油。近 90% 的柴油依赖进口，库存仅能覆盖 15 到 30 天，因此能源供应中断的风险至关重要。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Zimbabwe's export ban on lithium ore has heightened policy uncertainty, while domestic lithium salt plants' scheduled maintenance in January and February, coupled with stalled production restarts at Chinese mines, has further constrained supply elasticity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，津巴布韦对锂矿石的出口禁令加剧了政策不确定性，而国内锂盐厂在一月和二月的计划维护，加上中国矿山生产重启的停滞，进一步限制了供应弹性。</p>
</div><p>Consequently, expectations for the lithium market in 2026 have shifted from a slight surplus to a tight balance or even a structural deficit. This shift serves as a key driver behind the rally in lithium prices and lithium mining equities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，市场对 2026 年锂市场的预期已从轻微过剩转变为紧平衡甚至结构性短缺。这一转变是锂价和锂矿股票反弹的关键驱动因素。</p>
</div><h2>Institutional Views: Collective Downward Revision of Lithium Supply Forecasts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>机构观点：锂供应预测集体下调</h2>
</div><p>The rise in stock prices is also driven by mainstream institutions' downward revisions of lithium supply forecasts. Recently, several investment banks have predicted that lithium prices will enter an upward trajectory as the lithium supply remains tight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股价上涨也受到主流机构下调锂供应预测的推动。最近，几家投资银行预测，随着锂供应保持紧张，锂价将进入上升轨道。</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley released a research report lowering its 2026 lithium supply forecast to approximately 400,000 tons (down from the initial estimate of roughly 500,000 tons at the start of the year). The bank expects market supply to tighten further during the peak season from May to August, with a deficit emerging starting in September. Overall, Morgan Stanley expects lithium prices to trend upward in the second half of 2026, noting that demand elasticity will manifest when prices exceed 250,000 yuan per ton.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利发布研究报告，将其 2026 年锂供应预测下调至约 400,000 吨（低于年初大约 500,000 吨的初步估计）。该行预计市场供应将在 5 月至 8 月的旺季进一步收紧，预计从 9 月开始将出现短缺。总体而言，摩根士丹利预计锂价将在 2026 年下半年呈上升趋势，并指出当价格超过 250,000 元/吨时，需求弹性将显现。</p>
</div><p>Citi noted that the latest lithium dataset shows weekly inventory accumulation increased this week. The bank expects that as supply impacts from Zimbabwe likely emerge, the market may shift toward destocking; therefore, recent pressures should gradually alleviate within the next 3 to 4 weeks. Addressing concerns over year-to-date demand for new energy vehicle (NEV) batteries, data from Real Lithium shows that NEV battery installations grew 18% year-on-year in the first two months of 2026, primarily driven by robust demand for commercial vehicles and an increase in battery capacity per vehicle. Given that monthly supply-demand dynamics should tighten in the coming weeks, the bank recommends that investors buy lithium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>花旗指出，最新的锂数据集显示，本周库存积累增加。该行预计，随着津巴布韦的供应影响可能显现，市场可能转向去库存；因此，近期压力应在接下来的 3 到 4 周内逐渐缓解。针对年初至今对新能源汽车（NEV）电池需求的担忧，Real Lithium 的数据显示，2026 年前两个月 NEV 电池安装同比增长 18%，主要受商用车强劲需求和每辆车电池容量增加的推动。考虑到未来几周月度供需动态应收紧，该行建议投资者买入锂。</p>
</div><h2>What to watch next?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>接下来需要关注什么？</h2>
</div><p>First, attention must be focused on the demand side, including the persistence of the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, as high oil prices will drive up demand for power batteries. Macquarie Bank predicts that, fueled by robust demand for energy storage, global lithium demand will maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% through the end of this decade, even as electric vehicle growth slows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，必须关注需求端，包括持续的美国与伊朗冲突，因为高油价将推动动力电池需求上升。麦格理银行预测，受强劲的能源存储需求推动，全球锂需求将在本十年末保持超过 20% 的年复合增长率（CAGR），即使电动车增长放缓。</p>
</div><p>On the supply side, focus should be on changes in the supply landscape resulting from Zimbabwe's newly implemented lithium export controls. Other factors include the impact of energy supply disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts on Australian lithium mining capacity, as well as uncertainties surrounding the production restart and capacity release of CATL's large-scale lithium mines following their suspension due to permit expirations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在供应端，应关注津巴布韦新实施的锂出口管制所带来的供应格局变化。其他因素包括地缘政治冲突导致的能源供应中断对澳大利亚锂矿产能的影响，以及因许可证到期暂停后，CATL 大规模锂矿的生产重启和产能释放的不确定性。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多</p>
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Overnight US Lithium Stocks Lead Gains; Lithium Sector Operating Logic Sees Transition of Old and New as Geopolitical Conflict May Raise Sector Pivot Again?

隔夜美国锂股领涨；锂行业的运营逻辑正在经历新旧交替，地缘政治冲突可能再次推动行业转型？