<p>纽约，4 月 14 日（路透社）——美国股市回到了伊朗战争开始六周前的水平，投资者表示这反映了对冲突不会持久的押注。但如果这种想法是错误的呢？</p>
<p>尽管与 2 月 27 日相比，基准标普 500 指数的回调发生在截然不同的投资背景下，正是在美国 - 以色列军事打击开始中东冲突之前。油价上涨了约 40%。对通货膨胀的担忧推动了基准国债收益率的上升。这些担忧使市场在很大程度上排除了今年预期的降息。</p>
<p>如果这些因素持续存在，可能会对股票表现构成障碍。</p>
<p>“人们对这一切能够迅速解决抱有很大的自满。市场定价反映出我们有一个退路，” Hirtle Callaghan 的首席投资官 Brad Conger 表示，该公司管理着来自捐赠基金和基金会的资产。“我认为我们现在的情况比 2 月 27 日要糟得多，但价格却是一样的。”</p>
<p>投资者正在抓住他们认为的坚实经济背景，特别是自战争开始以来，企业利润的强劲前景实际上有所改善。他们也意识到在这场持续三年的牛市中，股市的韧性，并担心错过反弹机会。</p>
<p>战争风险被视为短暂的</p>
<p>在危机开始后的最初几周下跌后，标普 500 指数已经反弹。该指数在 3 月底时较 1 月底的历史高点下跌超过 9%，几乎达到了 10% 的回调水平。标普 500 指数在战争开始后周一收盘上涨 0.1%，距离历史最高点仅超过 1%。周二，股票再次上涨，标普 500 指数当天上涨了 1%。</p>
<p>在上周达成的为期两周的停火协议后，关于解决方案的乐观情绪加速上升。但局势仍然充满不确定性，投资者仍在为与战争相关的发展可能导致资产波动做好准备。</p>
<p>市场正在关注 “短期风险，这些风险将在相对较短的时间内被克服，而不是开始一个新的……高通胀、高能源价格、高利率的时代，” Chase Investment Counsel Corp.的总裁 Peter Tuz 表示。“因为如果这是新的时代，那么几乎没有理由相信市场会像现在这样强劲。”</p>
<p>油价现在上涨，未来可能会减少？</p>
<p>股票表现的核心是油价的波动。持续上涨的原油价格将给消费者带来压力，他们需要在汽油上花费更多，同时也会提高企业的成本。</p>
<p>投资者预计战争将在短期内结束的一个迹象是，市场显示油价预计到年底将更加温和，Edward Jones 的高级全球投资策略师 Angelo Kourkafas 表示。根据 LSEG 的数据，美国原油的前月合约徘徊在每桶约 95 美元，而 12 月合约为 77 美元。</p>
<p>“市场现在将能源中断视为短期问题，” Kourkafas 说。“有一种观念，即是的，确实存在很多短期干扰，但这是暂时的。一旦我们过去了这一点，我们将回到之前的经济韧性。”</p>
<p>油价的上涨已经影响了美国的通货膨胀，3 月份的消费者价格指数月度上涨幅度为近四年来最大。</p>
<p>通货膨胀的担忧使投资者降低了对美联储降息的预期，这曾是对美国股票乐观的来源。根据截至周二的 LSEG 数据，美联储基金期货最后定价仅为 12 月降息 6 个基点，低于一个标准的 25 个基点的降息。在战争之前，预计到 12 月将有大约两次这样的 25 个基点的降息。</p>
<p>油价驱动的通货膨胀也是推动国债收益率上升的主要原因。基准 10 年期国债收益率最后约为 4.3%，高于 2 月 27 日的 3.96%。</p>
<p>更高的基准收益率可能会对股票表现构成阻力，包括通过提高企业和消费者的借贷成本。</p>
<p>盈利前景提振股票</p>
<p>自战争开始以来，股票的一个积极因素是：对美国企业利润的预期更加强劲。根据 LSEG IBES 的数据显示，预计标普 500 公司的盈利将在 2026 年增长 19%，而在战争开始之前预计增长为 15%。</p>
<p>增加的盈利前景无疑使股票看起来更具吸引力。根据 LSEG Datastream 的数据，基于未来 12 个月的利润预期，标普 500 的市盈率在周一为 20.4，低于去年 10 月底的 23 以上。</p>
<p>“尽管油价飙升及其对通货膨胀的影响，预期仍在不断上升，” Commonwealth Financial Network 的首席市场策略师 Chris Fasciano 表示。“更具吸引力的估值和更高的盈利预期让我对当前的背景感到满意。”</p>
<p>乐观的盈利前景将在未来几周受到考验，因为公司将公布第一季度的业绩。</p>
<p>“人们真的期待今年整体公司会有惊人的盈利增长，” Tuz 说。“现在说这是否会成为一个准确的数字还为时尚早。”</p>
<p>（纽约报道，Lewis Krauskopf；编辑：Colin Barr 和 Matthew Lewis）</p>

标普 500 指数

和顺石油

<p>美国股市已恢复到战前水平，尽管油价和国债收益率上升，投资者对企业利润持乐观态度。标普 500 指数在初期下跌后反弹，收盘时仅比历史最高点低 1%。虽然通胀担忧降低了对美联储降息的预期，但市场预计冲突将得到解决，认为当前风险是暂时的。标普 500 公司盈利预期有所改善，使得股票更具吸引力，即使更高的收益率可能对股票表现构成挑战</p>

<p>NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. stock market is back to where it was when the Iran war began over six weeks ago, which investors say is a reflection of bets that the conflict will not be long-lasting. But what if that thinking is wrong?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约，4 月 14 日（路透社）——美国股市回到了伊朗战争开始六周前的水平，投资者表示这反映了对冲突不会持久的押注。但如果这种想法是错误的呢？</p>
</div><p>The benchmark S&amp;P 500's round trip comes despite a sharply different investing backdrop compared with February 27, just before the U.S.-Israeli military strikes began the Middle East conflict. Oil prices are some 40% higher. Concerns about inflation have driven up benchmark Treasury yields. Those same concerns have led markets to largely rule out previously anticipated interest-rate cuts this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管与 2 月 27 日相比，基准标普 500 指数的回调发生在截然不同的投资背景下，正是在美国 - 以色列军事打击开始中东冲突之前。油价上涨了约 40%。对通货膨胀的担忧推动了基准国债收益率的上升。这些担忧使市场在很大程度上排除了今年预期的降息。</p>
</div><p>All of those factors could present obstacles to stock performance, should they persist.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这些因素持续存在，可能会对股票表现构成障碍。</p>
</div><p>&#34;There's a lot of complacency that this can resolve itself fast. What's priced in is that we have an off-ramp,&#34; said Brad Conger, chief investment officer at Hirtle Callaghan, which oversees assets from endowments and foundations. &#34;I think we're a lot worse off than February 27th, and we're at the same price.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“人们对这一切能够迅速解决抱有很大的自满。市场定价反映出我们有一个退路，” Hirtle Callaghan 的首席投资官 Brad Conger 表示，该公司管理着来自捐赠基金和基金会的资产。“我认为我们现在的情况比 2 月 27 日要糟得多，但价格却是一样的。”</p>
</div><p>Investors are seizing on what they see as a solid economic backdrop, in particular a strong outlook for corporate profits that has actually improved since the war began. They are also mindful of the stock market's resilience during this three-year-old bull market and wary of missing out on rallies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者正在抓住他们认为的坚实经济背景，特别是自战争开始以来，企业利润的强劲前景实际上有所改善。他们也意识到在这场持续三年的牛市中，股市的韧性，并担心错过反弹机会。</p>
</div><p>WAR RISKS VIEWED AS FLEETING</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>战争风险被视为短暂的</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 has rebounded after dropping in the initial weeks after the crisis began. The index in late March closed down over 9% from its late-January all-time high, nearly reaching a 10% decline that would have indicated a correction. The S&amp;P 500 on Monday closed up 0.1% since the war began, and just over 1% away from its record high. Stocks were moving higher again on Tuesday, with the S&amp;P 500 last up 1% on the day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在危机开始后的最初几周下跌后，标普 500 指数已经反弹。该指数在 3 月底时较 1 月底的历史高点下跌超过 9%，几乎达到了 10% 的回调水平。标普 500 指数在战争开始后周一收盘上涨 0.1%，距离历史最高点仅超过 1%。周二，股票再次上涨，标普 500 指数当天上涨了 1%。</p>
</div><p>Optimism about a resolution accelerated following a two-week ceasefire agreement reached last week. But much about the situation remained uncertain and investors were still bracing for war-related developments to drive asset volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上周达成的为期两周的停火协议后，关于解决方案的乐观情绪加速上升。但局势仍然充满不确定性，投资者仍在为与战争相关的发展可能导致资产波动做好准备。</p>
</div><p>The market was looking at &#34;temporary risks which will be overcome in fairly short order, as opposed to being the start of a new ... regime of higher inflation, higher energy prices, higher interest rates,&#34; said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel Corp. &#34;Because if that were the new regime, there is very little reason to believe the market would be as strong as it is right now.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场正在关注 “短期风险，这些风险将在相对较短的时间内被克服，而不是开始一个新的……高通胀、高能源价格、高利率的时代，” Chase Investment Counsel Corp.的总裁 Peter Tuz 表示。“因为如果这是新的时代，那么几乎没有理由相信市场会像现在这样强劲。”</p>
</div><p>OIL HIGHER NOW, LESS SO LATER?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价现在上涨，未来可能会减少？</p>
</div><p>Central to the performance of stocks is the movement in oil prices. Sustainably higher crude prices stand to pressure consumers who have to spend more on gasoline, while also raising costs for businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票表现的核心是油价的波动。持续上涨的原油价格将给消费者带来压力，他们需要在汽油上花费更多，同时也会提高企业的成本。</p>
</div><p>One sign that investors are expecting the war to wind down in the near term is markets showing that oil prices are expected to be more moderate by year-end, said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones. The front-month contract for U.S. crude is hovering at around $95 a barrel, while the December contract is at $77, according to LSEG data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者预计战争将在短期内结束的一个迹象是，市场显示油价预计到年底将更加温和，Edward Jones 的高级全球投资策略师 Angelo Kourkafas 表示。根据 LSEG 的数据，美国原油的前月合约徘徊在每桶约 95 美元，而 12 月合约为 77 美元。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Markets are now seeing the energy disruption as something that is near-term,&#34; Kourkafas said. &#34;There is this notion that, yes, there is a lot of near-term disruption, but it is temporary in nature. And then once we go past that, we're going to go back to the prevailing economic resilience that we had before.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“市场现在将能源中断视为短期问题，” Kourkafas 说。“有一种观念，即是的，确实存在很多短期干扰，但这是暂时的。一旦我们过去了这一点，我们将回到之前的经济韧性。”</p>
</div><p>The rise in oil prices has already influenced U.S. inflation, with the monthly Consumer Price Index rising in March by the most in nearly four years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价的上涨已经影响了美国的通货膨胀，3 月份的消费者价格指数月度上涨幅度为近四年来最大。</p>
</div><p>Inflationary fears have led investors to dial back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which had been a source of optimism about U.S. equities heading in to the year. Fed funds futures were last pricing in just 6 basis points of easing by December, according to LSEG data as of Tuesday, or less than one standard 25-basis-point cut. Prior to the war, roughly two such quarter-percentage-point cuts had been expected by December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通货膨胀的担忧使投资者降低了对美联储降息的预期，这曾是对美国股票乐观的来源。根据截至周二的 LSEG 数据，美联储基金期货最后定价仅为 12 月降息 6 个基点，低于一个标准的 25 个基点的降息。在战争之前，预计到 12 月将有大约两次这样的 25 个基点的降息。</p>
</div><p>Oil-driven inflation is also a main culprit driving up Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was last around 4.3%, up from 3.96% on February 27.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价驱动的通货膨胀也是推动国债收益率上升的主要原因。基准 10 年期国债收益率最后约为 4.3%，高于 2 月 27 日的 3.96%。</p>
</div><p>Higher benchmark yields could present headwinds for equity performance, including by translating into higher borrowing costs for companies and consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更高的基准收益率可能会对股票表现构成阻力，包括通过提高企业和消费者的借贷成本。</p>
</div><p>EARNINGS OUTLOOK BUOYS STOCKS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>盈利前景提振股票</p>
</div><p>One positive factor for stocks since the war began: Estimates for U.S. corporate profits are even more robust. S&amp;P 500 companies are expected to increase earnings by 19% in 2026, up from an expected 15% increase just before the war began, according to LSEG IBES.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自战争开始以来，股票的一个积极因素是：对美国企业利润的预期更加强劲。根据 LSEG IBES 的数据显示，预计标普 500 公司的盈利将在 2026 年增长 19%，而在战争开始之前预计增长为 15%。</p>
</div><p>The increased earnings outlook has arguably made stocks look more enticing. The price-to-earnings ratio for the S&amp;P 500, based on profit estimates for the next 12 months, stood at 20.4 on Monday, down from over 23 in late October, according to LSEG Datastream.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>增加的盈利前景无疑使股票看起来更具吸引力。根据 LSEG Datastream 的数据，基于未来 12 个月的利润预期，标普 500 的市盈率在周一为 20.4，低于去年 10 月底的 23 以上。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Estimates keep going higher despite the surge in oil prices and the implications that has for inflation,&#34; said Chris Fasciano, chief market strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network. &#34;More attractive valuations and higher earnings estimates make me feel OK about the backdrop.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“尽管油价飙升及其对通货膨胀的影响，预期仍在不断上升，” Commonwealth Financial Network 的首席市场策略师 Chris Fasciano 表示。“更具吸引力的估值和更高的盈利预期让我对当前的背景感到满意。”</p>
</div><p>The upbeat earnings outlook will be tested in the coming weeks as companies report their first-quarter results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>乐观的盈利前景将在未来几周受到考验，因为公司将公布第一季度的业绩。</p>
</div><p>&#34;People are really expecting astounding earnings growth from companies in aggregate this year,&#34; Tuz said. &#34;It's way too early to say whether it's going to prove to be an accurate number or not.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“人们真的期待今年整体公司会有惊人的盈利增长，” Tuz 说。“现在说这是否会成为一个准确的数字还为时尚早。”</p>
</div><p>(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf in New York; Editing by Colin Barr and Matthew Lewis)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（纽约报道，Lewis Krauskopf；编辑：Colin Barr 和 Matthew Lewis）</p>
</div>

Analysis-Higher oil prices, higher yields, no more rate cuts? No problem for US stocks

- 美国股市回到伊朗战争开始时的水平，反映投资者对短期冲突的预期。  
- 标普 500 指数涨幅有限，油价升高和通胀担忧推动国债收益率上升。  
- 企业盈利前景乐观，料将支撑股市表现，预计未来收益增长将显著。

Fidelity

西方石油

iShares MSCI欧澳远东成长指数ETF

罗素 2000 价值股指数 ETF - iShares

3 倍做多标普 500 ETF - Direxion

超大盘股成长 ETF - Vanguard

美国油气勘探与生产 ETF - iShares

中盘价值股 ETF - Vanguard

标普 500 ETF - Vanguard

核心美国价值 ETF - iShares

美国小盘价值股 ETF - Avantis

超大盘股价值 ETF - Vanguard

炼油公司指数 ETF - VanEck Vectors

美国大盘成长股 ETF - Charles Schwab

全美成长股指数 MSCI ETF - Vanguard

美国小盘价值股 ETF - Vanguard

美国小盘成长股 ETF - Vanguard

油气开采 ETF - SPDR

Avantis US Large Cap Value ETF

标普油气设备与服务 ETF - SPDR

核心标普美国增长 ETF - iShares

标普 500 ETF - iShares

美国布伦特原油期货基金

油气服务 ETF - Market Vectors

K-1 免费原油策略 ETF - ProShares

F三星原油期

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

国泰标普500ETF

标普 500 ETF - SPDR

FGX原油

标普全球能源股指数 ETF - iShares

能源业 ETF - Vanguard

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

美国石油设备与服务 ETF - iShares

罗素 1000 成长指数 ETF - iShares

Defiance Oil Enhanced Options Income ETF

博时标普500ETF

标普 600 小盘价值股 ETF - SPDR

分析 - 油价上涨，收益率上升，不再降息？这对美国股市来说不是问题