<p>在经历了一年中最长的连胜后，英镑在周三稍作喘息，兑美元下滑，因为对伊朗战争可能解决的情绪改善对避险的美元造成了压力。</p>
<p>随着投资者乐观情绪的上升，美元跌至六周低点，促使英镑近期涨幅有所放缓。</p>
<p>英镑最后稳定在 1.357 美元，自三月底触及四个月低点以来上涨了近 3%。</p>
<p>该货币连续上涨了七个交易日，创下自去年四月以来最长的连胜纪录。</p>
<p><strong>国际货币基金组织大幅下调英国经济增长预期</strong></p>
<p>尽管近期反弹，分析师警告称，英镑的强势可能不会持续，因经济风险不断增加。</p>
<p>国际货币基金组织已将英国 2026 年的经济增长预测下调至 0.8%，低于之前的 1.3%。</p>
<p>这是主要发达经济体中最严重的下调，也是七国集团中最大的修正。</p>
<p>此次下调反映了对伊朗战争经济影响日益增长的担忧，该战争扰乱了全球能源市场，影响了增长前景。</p>
<p><strong>能源价格推高借贷成本</strong></p>
<p>英国对进口天然气的依赖加大了经济压力。</p>
<p>自冲突开始以来，天然气价格上涨了约 40%，加剧了通胀压力。</p>
<p>能源成本的上升也推高了政府的借贷成本。</p>
<p>自二月底以来，英国两年期国债收益率上涨了近 70 个基点，达到约 4.2%，成为主要经济体中表现最差的。</p>
<p>收益率的急剧上升使交易员开始预计英国央行可能在今年晚些时候加息。</p>
<p><strong>随着情绪改善，利率预期发生变化</strong></p>
<p>然而，关于霍尔木兹海峡石油运输中断可能缓解的情绪改善，导致这些预期有所缓和。</p>
<p>分析师指出，随着市场乐观情绪的增长，激进加息的紧迫性可能减弱，从而对英镑施加下行压力。</p>
<p>据路透社报道，ING 策略师 Francesco Pesole 表示：&#34;总的来说，最新的发展让我们对英国短期利率将比欧元区更有下降空间的判断充满信心，这应该在短期内为欧元/英镑提供持久支持。&#34;</p>
<p>他补充道：&#34;……这一对货币在改善的风险情绪中受到了一些影响，但一旦尘埃落定，利率差异将重新成为主要驱动因素。&#34;</p>
<p><strong>欧元与英镑的动态仍然受到关注</strong></p>
<p>尽管近期发展，欧元兑英镑仍然承压。</p>
<p>自冲突开始以来，欧元兑英镑仍下跌近 1%，最后稳定在 86.94 便士。</p>
<p>这表明，尽管英镑有所停顿，但更广泛的货币动态仍受相对经济前景和利率预期的影响。</p>
<p><strong>英格兰银行强调通胀风险</strong></p>
<p>与此同时，英格兰银行政策制定者梅根·格林强调了围绕通胀和增长的不确定性。</p>
<p>她在周二表示，可能需要几个月才能全面评估能源价格冲击对英国经济的长期影响。</p>
<p>格林补充说，通胀的上行风险仍然是一个关键问题，这表明政策制定者可能需要在数据不明确的情况下采取预防性措施。</p>
<p>总体而言，英镑近期的反弹似乎脆弱，因为地缘政治发展和经济不确定性继续影响市场预期。</p>

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英镑 做多 - CurrencyShares

<p>英镑在经历了一波显著的上涨后暂停，因对伊朗战争的情绪改善而对美元下滑。尽管自三月以来上涨了近 3%，分析师警告称，英镑的强势可能是短暂的，原因包括国际货币基金组织对英国经济增长前景的急剧下调。能源价格上涨导致通胀和借贷成本增加，引发了市场对英格兰银行可能加息的猜测。总体而言，地缘政治紧张局势和经济不确定性继续影响市场对英镑的预期</p>

<p>The British pound took a breather on Wednesday after its longest winning streak in a year, slipping against the US dollar as improving sentiment around a possible resolution to the Iran war weighed on the safe-haven greenback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经历了一年中最长的连胜后，英镑在周三稍作喘息，兑美元下滑，因为对伊朗战争可能解决的情绪改善对避险的美元造成了压力。</p>
</div><p>The dollar had fallen to six-week lows as investor optimism picked up, prompting some cooling in sterling’s recent gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着投资者乐观情绪的上升，美元跌至六周低点，促使英镑近期涨幅有所放缓。</p>
</div><p>Sterling was last steady at $1.357, after rising nearly 3% since hitting four-month lows at the end of March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英镑最后稳定在 1.357 美元，自三月底触及四个月低点以来上涨了近 3%。</p>
</div><p>The currency had advanced for seven consecutive sessions, marking its longest streak since a 10-day run last April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该货币连续上涨了七个交易日，创下自去年四月以来最长的连胜纪录。</p>
</div><p><strong>IMF cuts UK growth outlook sharply</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>国际货币基金组织大幅下调英国经济增长预期</strong></p>
</div><p>Despite the recent rally, analysts warned that sterling’s strength may not last long due to mounting economic risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管近期反弹，分析师警告称，英镑的强势可能不会持续，因经济风险不断增加。</p>
</div><p>The International Monetary Fund has downgraded Britain’s economic growth forecast for 2026 to 0.8%, down from a previous estimate of 1.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际货币基金组织已将英国 2026 年的经济增长预测下调至 0.8%，低于之前的 1.3%。</p>
</div><p>This marks the sharpest downgrade among major advanced economies and the largest revision for any Group of Seven nation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是主要发达经济体中最严重的下调，也是七国集团中最大的修正。</p>
</div><p>The downgrade reflects growing concerns over the economic fallout from the Iran war, which has disrupted global energy markets and weighed on growth prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此次下调反映了对伊朗战争经济影响日益增长的担忧，该战争扰乱了全球能源市场，影响了增长前景。</p>
</div><p><strong>Energy prices push borrowing costs higher</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>能源价格推高借贷成本</strong></p>
</div><p>The UK’s reliance on imported natural gas has intensified pressure on the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英国对进口天然气的依赖加大了经济压力。</p>
</div><p>Gas prices have surged roughly 40% since the conflict began, adding to inflationary pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自冲突开始以来，天然气价格上涨了约 40%，加剧了通胀压力。</p>
</div><p>Rising energy costs have also driven up government borrowing costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源成本的上升也推高了政府的借贷成本。</p>
</div><p>Two-year UK bond yields have climbed nearly 70 basis points since late February, reaching around 4.2%, making them the worst-performing among major economies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自二月底以来，英国两年期国债收益率上涨了近 70 个基点，达到约 4.2%，成为主要经济体中表现最差的。</p>
</div><p>This sharp rise in yields has led traders to price in the possibility of interest rate hikes by the Bank of England later this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>收益率的急剧上升使交易员开始预计英国央行可能在今年晚些时候加息。</p>
</div><p><strong>Rate expectations shift as sentiment improves</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>随着情绪改善，利率预期发生变化</strong></p>
</div><p>However, improving sentiment around a potential easing of disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz has led to some moderation in those expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，关于霍尔木兹海峡石油运输中断可能缓解的情绪改善，导致这些预期有所缓和。</p>
</div><p>Analysts noted that as market optimism grows, the urgency for aggressive rate hikes may diminish, putting downward pressure on the pound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师指出，随着市场乐观情绪的增长，激进加息的紧迫性可能减弱，从而对英镑施加下行压力。</p>
</div><p>As quoted in a Reuters report, ING strategist Francesco Pesole said, &#34;All in all, the latest developments keep us confident with our call that front-end rates have further to fall in the UK than the euro zone and that should offer lasting support to euro/sterling beyond the near-term.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>据路透社报道，ING 策略师 Francesco Pesole 表示：&#34;总的来说，最新的发展让我们对英国短期利率将比欧元区更有下降空间的判断充满信心，这应该在短期内为欧元/英镑提供持久支持。&#34;</p>
</div><p>He added, &#34;...The pair is suffering a bit from improved risk sentiment, but rate differentials will return as primary drivers once the dust has settled.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他补充道：&#34;……这一对货币在改善的风险情绪中受到了一些影响，但一旦尘埃落定，利率差异将重新成为主要驱动因素。&#34;</p>
</div><p><strong>Euro-sterling dynamics remain in focus</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>欧元与英镑的动态仍然受到关注</strong></p>
</div><p>The euro remained under pressure against the pound despite recent developments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管近期发展，欧元兑英镑仍然承压。</p>
</div><p>The euro is still down nearly 1% against sterling since the start of the conflict and was last flat at 86.94 pence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自冲突开始以来，欧元兑英镑仍下跌近 1%，最后稳定在 86.94 便士。</p>
</div><p>This suggests that while sterling has paused, broader currency dynamics remain influenced by relative economic outlooks and rate expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这表明，尽管英镑有所停顿，但更广泛的货币动态仍受相对经济前景和利率预期的影响。</p>
</div><p><strong>BoE highlights inflation risks</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英格兰银行强调通胀风险</strong></p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene emphasised the uncertainty surrounding inflation and growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，英格兰银行政策制定者梅根·格林强调了围绕通胀和增长的不确定性。</p>
</div><p>Speaking on Tuesday, she said, it could take months to fully assess the long-term impact of the energy price shock on the UK economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她在周二表示，可能需要几个月才能全面评估能源价格冲击对英国经济的长期影响。</p>
</div><p>Greene added that upside risks to inflation remain a key concern, signalling that policymakers may need to act pre-emptively despite limited data clarity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>格林补充说，通胀的上行风险仍然是一个关键问题，这表明政策制定者可能需要在数据不明确的情况下采取预防性措施。</p>
</div><p>Overall, the pound’s recent rally appears fragile as geopolitical developments and economic uncertainties continue to shape market expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，英镑近期的反弹似乎脆弱，因为地缘政治发展和经济不确定性继续影响市场预期。</p>
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在战争风险冲击英国经济的情况下，英镑能否保持其涨势？