<p>路透社发布了一份来自欧洲央行消息来源的报告，称他们对在四月加息持谨慎态度，因为尚未看到第二轮效应的证据。</p>
<p>昨天，市场对加息的预期为 39%，这看起来是为了降低这一预期。欧洲央行的做事方式很奇怪，因为拉加德昨天在发言，完全可以自己做出这个决定，但却没有给出任何暗示。</p>
<p>我猜这是一种从鹰派言论中逐步退却的过程，因为战争正在结束。四月加息的概率已经降至 23%，而六月的单次加息已被定价为 57 个基点的加息。</p>
<p>所有这些听起来对我来说都太鹰派了，因为国际货币基金组织昨天将其对欧元区的增长预测从 1.3% 下调至 1.1%。</p>
<p>欧元基本没有变动。</p>

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<p>路透社报道，由于缺乏第二轮效应的证据，欧洲央行政策制定者对四月份加息持谨慎态度。市场对四月份加息的预期已从 39% 降至 23%，目前预计将在六月份进行一次加息。国际货币基金组织也将其对欧元区的增长预测从 1.3% 下调至 1.1%。尽管出现这些变化，欧元依然保持稳定</p>

<p>Reuters is out with an ECB sources report that says they're wary of hiking in April as there is no evidence yet of second-round effects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>路透社发布了一份来自欧洲央行消息来源的报告，称他们对在四月加息持谨慎态度，因为尚未看到第二轮效应的证据。</p>
</div><p>Yesterday, the market had been pricing in a 39% chance of a hike and this looks designed to drive that down. The way the ECB does business is bizarre as Lagarde was speaking yesterday and could have done this herself but didn't offer any kind of nod.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>昨天，市场对加息的预期为 39%，这看起来是为了降低这一预期。欧洲央行的做事方式很奇怪，因为拉加德昨天在发言，完全可以自己做出这个决定，但却没有给出任何暗示。</p>
</div><p>My guess is that this is part of a long climbdown from hawkish talk as the war winds down. The odds of an April hike are already down to 23% and a single hike is now priced in For June with 57 bps of hikes on the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我猜这是一种从鹰派言论中逐步退却的过程，因为战争正在结束。四月加息的概率已经降至 23%，而六月的单次加息已被定价为 57 个基点的加息。</p>
</div><p>All of that sounds too hawkish to me with the IMF yesterday dropping its Eurozone growth forecast to 1.1% from 1.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些听起来对我来说都太鹰派了，因为国际货币基金组织昨天将其对欧元区的增长预测从 1.3% 下调至 1.1%。</p>
</div><p>The euro is largely unmoved.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧元基本没有变动。</p>
</div>

ECB sources report: Policymakers wary of April rate hike

- 欧洲央行对四月加息持谨慎态度，尚未见第二轮效应证据。  
- 市场对加息预期降至 23%，六月加息定价为 57 个基点。  
- 国际货币基金组织下调欧元区增长预测至 1.1%。

欧洲央行消息人士称：决策者对四月份加息持谨慎态度