<p>新加坡——亚洲股市在周五（4 月 17 日）迎来了第二周的强劲上涨，而油价则维持在每桶 100 美元（127 新元）以下，投资者在关键的周末前降低了风险，这个周末可能为中东战争的短期解决铺平道路。</p>
<p>黎巴嫩和以色列之间的为期 10 天的停火协议于周四生效，特朗普总统表示，美国与伊朗之间的下一次会议可能在周末举行，而他们当前的停火协议将在此时到期。</p>
<p>尽管霍尔木兹海峡——通常有五分之一的全球石油和天然气供应通过此处流动——仍然大部分关闭，投资者本月对任何缓和迹象迅速持乐观态度。</p>
<p>这种乐观情绪使得油价保持在每桶 100 美元以下，尽管仍远高于战争前的水平。</p>
<p>布伦特原油期货下跌超过 1%，至每桶 98.14 美元。</p>
<p>美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货下跌 1.4%，至每桶 93.37 美元。</p>
<p>在股票方面，MSCI 亚太地区（不包括日本）股票的广泛指数下跌 0.83%，投资者在本月的强劲反弹后锁定利润。</p>
<p>该指数仍接近自 3 月 2 日以来的最高点，即伊朗战争爆发后的第一个交易日，并在 4 月份上涨了 14%，而上个月则下跌了 13.5%。</p>
<p>几乎所有股市都回到了 2 月底战争爆发前的水平。</p>
<p>美国期货在亚洲时段持平，而欧洲期货则指向低迷的开盘。</p>
<p>对于 M&amp;G 公共固定收益的首席投资官安德鲁·乔尔顿来说，过去两周市场对冲突和能源冲击的反应之快令人惊讶。</p>
<p>“政策制定者和中央银行家所说的关于这一（冲突）所带来的风险与市场所暗示的之间存在相当大的对比，” 他说。</p>
<p>乔尔顿补充道：“这似乎有些自满。似乎不太可能没有额外的风险溢价被计入，无论是对增长还是对通胀。”</p>
<p>美元在 3 月份受益于避险资金流入，但此后已放弃了这些涨幅。欧元最后以 1.1782 美元的价格成交，略低于前一交易日触及的七周高点。</p>
<p>美国基准标准普尔 500 指数和以科技股为主的纳斯达克在周四小幅上涨，连续第二天创下收盘新高。</p>
<p>ATFX Global 的首席市场策略师尼克·特维代尔表示：“我认为股市保持乐观，一些强劲的美国财报有所帮助，但——这是一个很大的但是——我们需要看到一些具体证据，证明和平将持续。”</p>
<p>“对我来说，这就是霍尔木兹海峡的全面重开，否则我们可能会在接下来的几天和几周内看到全球股票的重大调整。”</p>
<p>水道的关闭造成了历史上最严重的油价冲击，并促使国际货币基金组织下调全球经济前景，警告称，长期冲突可能将世界推向衰退的边缘。</p>
<p>尽管对第一季度强劲财报的期望，战争也使欧洲公司的前景变得不明朗，从航空公司到零售商。</p>
<p>更高的能源价格、供应链中断和增长放缓已经反映在悲观的预测中。</p>
<p>美元指数衡量美元对包括日元和欧元在内的一篮子货币的汇率，报 98.24，徘徊在自 3 月 2 日以来的最低点附近。</p>
<p>该指数在周三之前连续八个交易日下跌。</p>
<p>风险敏感的澳元报 0.7167 美元，接近周四触及的四年高点。</p>
<p>日元略微走弱，报 159.48 美元，投资者在评估日本银行行长上田和夫的言论，他没有暗示本月将加息。</p>
<p>这些言论将使交易员对下一次加息的时机产生猜测，缺乏明确信号导致市场降低了对日本银行 4 月 27 日至 28 日政策会议上加息的押注。</p>

和顺石油

英国石油

<p>亚洲股市有望迎来连续第二周的上涨，而油价仍低于每桶 100 美元，市场对中东冲突的解决抱有希望。黎巴嫩与以色列之间的停火协议已生效，预计本周末可能会举行美伊会晤。尽管乐观情绪高涨，霍尔木兹海峡仍然关闭，影响了石油供应。MSCI 亚太指数在四月份上涨了 14%，从上个月的 13.5% 跌幅中恢复过来。分析师警告称，如果没有持久和平的确凿证据，全球股市可能因持续的风险和经济不确定性而面临调整</p>

<p>SINGAPORE — Asian stocks headed for a second week of strong gains on Friday (April 17) while oil prices were pinned below US$100 (S$127) a barrel with investors dialling back risk ahead of a crucial weekend that could pave the way for a near-term resolution to the Middle East war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新加坡——亚洲股市在周五（4 月 17 日）迎来了第二周的强劲上涨，而油价则维持在每桶 100 美元（127 新元）以下，投资者在关键的周末前降低了风险，这个周末可能为中东战争的短期解决铺平道路。</p>
</div><p>A 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel went into effect on Thursday and President Donald Trump said the next meeting between the US and Iran may take place over the weekend, when their current ceasefire is due to expire.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黎巴嫩和以色列之间的为期 10 天的停火协议于周四生效，特朗普总统表示，美国与伊朗之间的下一次会议可能在周末举行，而他们当前的停火协议将在此时到期。</p>
</div><p>Investors have been quick to take an optimistic view on any signs of denouement this month, even though the Strait of Hormuz — through which a fifth of the world's oil and gas supply typically flows — remains largely closed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管霍尔木兹海峡——通常有五分之一的全球石油和天然气供应通过此处流动——仍然大部分关闭，投资者本月对任何缓和迹象迅速持乐观态度。</p>
</div><p>That optimism has kept oil prices below US$100 per barrel though they remain well above the pre-war levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种乐观情绪使得油价保持在每桶 100 美元以下，尽管仍远高于战争前的水平。</p>
</div><p>Brent crude futures dropped more than one per cent to US$98.14 a barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油期货下跌超过 1%，至每桶 98.14 美元。</p>
</div><p>US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 1.4 per cent to US$93.37 a barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货下跌 1.4%，至每桶 93.37 美元。</p>
</div><p>In stocks, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.83 per cent as investors locked in profits after a blistering rally this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在股票方面，MSCI 亚太地区（不包括日本）股票的广泛指数下跌 0.83%，投资者在本月的强劲反弹后锁定利润。</p>
</div><p>The index remains close to its highest since March 2, the first trading day after the Iran war broke out, and is up 14 per cent in April after dropping 13.5 per cent last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该指数仍接近自 3 月 2 日以来的最高点，即伊朗战争爆发后的第一个交易日，并在 4 月份上涨了 14%，而上个月则下跌了 13.5%。</p>
</div><p>Almost all stock markets are back to levels before the war erupted at the end of February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几乎所有股市都回到了 2 月底战争爆发前的水平。</p>
</div><p>US futures were flat in Asian hours while European futures pointed to a subdued open.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国期货在亚洲时段持平，而欧洲期货则指向低迷的开盘。</p>
</div><p>For Andrew Chorlton, CIO for public fixed income at M&amp;G, the last two weeks have been surprising in how quickly markets have been willing to look through the conflict and energy shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 M&amp;G 公共固定收益的首席投资官安德鲁·乔尔顿来说，过去两周市场对冲突和能源冲击的反应之快令人惊讶。</p>
</div><p>&#34;There's quite a strong contrast between what policymakers and central bankers are saying about the risks that this (conflict) is creating versus what the market is implying,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“政策制定者和中央银行家所说的关于这一（冲突）所带来的风险与市场所暗示的之间存在相当大的对比，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>&#34;That seems somewhat complacent,&#34; Chorlton added. &#34;It seems unlikely that there shouldn't be some additional risk premium priced in, either to growth or to inflation.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>乔尔顿补充道：“这似乎有些自满。似乎不太可能没有额外的风险溢价被计入，无论是对增长还是对通胀。”</p>
</div><p>The US dollar benefited from safe-haven flows in March, but has since given up those gains. The euro last bought US$1.1782, just below the seven-week high it touched in the previous session.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元在 3 月份受益于避险资金流入，但此后已放弃了这些涨幅。欧元最后以 1.1782 美元的价格成交，略低于前一交易日触及的七周高点。</p>
</div><p>The US benchmark S&amp;P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose modestly to record closing highs for a second straight day on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国基准标准普尔 500 指数和以科技股为主的纳斯达克在周四小幅上涨，连续第二天创下收盘新高。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I think equity markets are remaining positive and some solid US earnings have helped, but — and it's a big but — we need to see some concrete evidence that peace is going to last,&#34; said Nick Twidale, chief market strategist at ATFX Global.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ATFX Global 的首席市场策略师尼克·特维代尔表示：“我认为股市保持乐观，一些强劲的美国财报有所帮助，但——这是一个很大的但是——我们需要看到一些具体证据，证明和平将持续。”</p>
</div><p>&#34;And to me, that is a full reopening of the Strait, or we could see some substantial corrections in global stocks in the coming days and weeks.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“对我来说，这就是霍尔木兹海峡的全面重开，否则我们可能会在接下来的几天和几周内看到全球股票的重大调整。”</p>
</div><p>Closure of the waterway has caused the worst oil price shock in history, and spurred the International Monetary Fund to downgrade its outlook for the global economy, warning that a prolonged conflict could push the world to the brink of recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>水道的关闭造成了历史上最严重的油价冲击，并促使国际货币基金组织下调全球经济前景，警告称，长期冲突可能将世界推向衰退的边缘。</p>
</div><p>The war has also clouded the outlook for European firms from airlines to retailers, despite hopes for robust first-quarter earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管对第一季度强劲财报的期望，战争也使欧洲公司的前景变得不明朗，从航空公司到零售商。</p>
</div><p>Higher energy prices, supply-chain disruption and slower growth are already feeding into gloomy forecasts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更高的能源价格、供应链中断和增长放缓已经反映在悲观的预测中。</p>
</div><p>The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was at 98.24, loitering near its lowest since March 2.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元指数衡量美元对包括日元和欧元在内的一篮子货币的汇率，报 98.24，徘徊在自 3 月 2 日以来的最低点附近。</p>
</div><p>The index had declined for eight straight sessions through Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该指数在周三之前连续八个交易日下跌。</p>
</div><p>The risk-sensitive Australian dollar fetched US$0.7167, drifting near the four-year high it touched on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>风险敏感的澳元报 0.7167 美元，接近周四触及的四年高点。</p>
</div><p>The yen was slightly weaker at 159.48 per dollar as investors took stock of comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who steered clear of signalling a rate hike was on the cards this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元略微走弱，报 159.48 美元，投资者在评估日本银行行长上田和夫的言论，他没有暗示本月将加息。</p>
</div><p>The remarks will keep traders guessing on the timing of the next rate hike, with the lack of a clear signal leading markets to reduce bets of a rate increase at the BOJ's April 27 - 28 policy meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些言论将使交易员对下一次加息的时机产生猜测，缺乏明确信号导致市场降低了对日本银行 4 月 27 日至 28 日政策会议上加息的押注。</p>
</div>

Asia stocks set for weekly gain, oil under $127 on peace deal hopes

Asiaone

西方石油

标普油气设备与服务 ETF - SPDR

亚太地区(除日本) MSCI ETF - iShares

油气服务 ETF - Market Vectors

美国石油设备与服务 ETF - iShares

能源业 ETF - Vanguard

美国布伦特原油期货基金

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

标普全球能源股指数 ETF - iShares

炼油公司指数 ETF - VanEck Vectors

标普新兴亚太 ETF - SPDR

油气开采 ETF - SPDR

能源业 ETF - SPDR

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

美国油气勘探与生产 ETF - iShares

德银原油基金 - PowerShares

M&G Plc

标普 500 指数

纳斯达克综合指数

亚洲股市有望实现周涨幅，油价因和平协议的希望而跌至 127 美元以下