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<p>美国的盟友们正在应对因华盛顿对伊朗的军事打击及其导致的全球供应链中断而引发的能源成本飙升，面临着战略困境。</p>
<p>这场危机突显了摆脱不稳定化石燃料市场的必要性。</p>
<p>然而，它也暴露出一种新的风险，因为能源安全越来越依赖于中国，而中国在清洁技术和关键矿产方面占据主导地位。</p>
<h2>战争驱动的能源危机加速清洁转型</h2>
<p>从欧盟和英国到韩国和菲律宾，各国政府对油气价格的飙升作出了回应，重新呼吁加速电气化和扩展清洁能源基础设施。</p>
<p>直接的触发因素是霍尔木兹海峡的能源流动中断，这是全球石油和液化天然气运输的一个关键节点。</p>
<p>严重依赖中东能源进口的国家急于控制后果，采取短期节能措施，同时加快长期能源转型计划。</p>
<p>太阳能和风能装置、电池储存系统以及电动汽车的采用被推到了政策议程的前沿。</p>
<p>各国政府将国内生产的可再生能源和核能视为保护其经济免受长期以来定义化石燃料市场的地缘政治波动的最可行方式。</p>
<h2>中国的主导地位笼罩着脱碳推动</h2>
<p>然而，向清洁能源的转型伴随着一个重要的警告。</p>
<p>各国越快尝试脱碳，就越有可能加深对中国的依赖。</p>
<p>北京在全球清洁技术供应链中占据压倒性份额。</p>
<p>根据国际能源署的数据，中国生产了近 80% 的全球太阳能电池板，并主导了晶圆和电池等关键组件的制造。</p>
<p>其足迹遍及电池、电动汽车和电网基础设施。</p>
<p>即使在风力涡轮机领域，尽管欧洲仍保有一席之地，中国仍控制着约 60% 的产量。</p>
<p>“中国是明显的赢家，” 外交关系委员会气候与能源高级研究员大卫·M·哈特表示。</p>
<p>他指出，北京的优势不仅限于单个行业，还涵盖了更广泛的制造生态系统和下一代能源技术。</p>
<h2>关键矿产加紧北京的控制</h2>
<p>除了制造业，中国的主导地位还扩展到能源转型所需的关键矿产的上游供应。</p>
<p>该国精炼了全球约 90% 的稀土元素，这些元素对风力涡轮机和电动汽车至关重要，并处理了大部分锂、钴和其他电池金属。</p>
<p>这种控制使北京在全球供应链中拥有了显著的杠杆作用。</p>
<p>去年，中国对几种稀土实施了出口限制，以回应美国的关税，突显了清洁能源转型中潜藏的地缘政治风险。</p>
<p>与此同时，关于与中国制造的组件相关的网络安全和基础设施脆弱性的担忧也浮出水面。</p>
<p>关于太阳能设备中出现无法解释的通信设备的报告进一步加剧了政策制定者的忧虑。</p>
<h2>菲律宾 exemplifies immediate impact</h2>
<p>菲律宾是危机如何重塑能源政策的一个鲜明例子。</p>
<p>该国约 98% 的石油依赖中东进口，在中断后成为首批宣布能源紧急状态的国家之一。</p>
<p>当局推出了四天工作周以抑制消费，并迅速加快可再生能源项目的推进。</p>
<p>开发商报告称，之前需要几个月的监管审批现在在几天内就能获得。</p>
<p>“这不是理论——这实际上正在地面上发生，” 开发商拉胡尔·阿格拉瓦尔在《华尔街日报》的一篇报道中表示。</p>
<p>然而，向可再生能源的转型可能会增加马尼拉对中国技术的依赖，即使两国在南海的领土争端中紧张关系依然存在。</p>
<h2>各国寻求与北京更紧密的接触</h2>
<p>尽管存在战略担忧，各国正越来越多地与中国接触，以确保获得清洁技术和原材料。</p>
<p>欧洲领导人尤其活跃。</p>
<p>德国经济部长预计将很快访问北京，此前该国总理和环境部长也进行了旨在加强经济联系的访问。</p>
<p>西班牙首相佩德罗·桑切斯近年来多次访问以确保关键资源。</p>
<p>来自加拿大、芬兰、爱尔兰和英国的领导人也寻求更紧密的接触，而非西方国家也在效仿。</p>
<p>一个印度商业代表团最近在中国探索绿色能源合作，而阿联酋也与北京讨论了更深层次的能源合作。</p>
<p>即使是面临经济压力的国家，如古巴，也转向中国的太阳能技术以缓解供应限制。</p>
<h2>保护主义在工业担忧中上升</h2>
<p>与此同时，各国政府试图在获得中国技术的同时保护国内产业。</p>
<p>欧盟对中国电动汽车和钢铁征收了关税，而美国对中国电动汽车进口征收了 100% 的关税。</p>
<p>一些亚洲经济体也采取了类似措施或引入了本地内容要求。</p>
<p>欧洲的新工业政策旨在确保到 2030 年，绿色技术的部分需求通过国内生产来满足。</p>
<p>正在讨论的提案包括对主导清洁技术全球制造的国家的外国投资设定上限。</p>
<p>英国也采取了谨慎的态度，因国家安全担忧而阻止一家中国公司在其境内建设大型风力涡轮机工厂。</p>
<h2>权衡取舍威胁转型速度</h2>
<p>这些保护措施伴随着经济上的权衡。</p>
<p>国内生产往往比进口中国商品更昂贵，这可能会减缓清洁能源基础设施的推广。</p>
<p>“如果过于倾向于国内生产，可能会以减碳速度为代价，” 布鲁塞尔智库 Bruegel 的高级研究员西蒙娜·塔利亚皮特拉在《政治家》报道中表示。</p>
<p>这一困境凸显了一个更广泛的现实：在没有一定程度依赖中国的情况下，实现快速的能源转型正变得极为困难。</p>
<h2>气候收益被短期排放风险抵消</h2>
<p>从长远来看，中国清洁能源技术的全球传播预计将减少温室气体排放。</p>
<p>电动汽车和可再生能源系统相较于基于化石燃料的替代品具有明显优势。</p>
<p>然而，近期前景更加复杂。</p>
<p>由于电气化驱动的电力需求上升，可能会增加对煤炭的依赖，尤其是在中国，煤炭在发电和工业活动中仍然扮演着核心角色。</p>
<p>与此同时，冲突扰乱了另一个关键的减排途径。</p>
<p>从煤炭转向液化天然气，曾被视为过渡解决方案，可能会显著放缓。</p>
<p>卡塔尔液化天然气基础设施的损坏可能需要数年才能修复，而供应中断的心理影响可能会持续更久。</p>
<p>这篇文章的标题为《伊朗战争引发的能源危机如何提升中国在全球清洁技术中的优势》，首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

GX中国洁能

华夏中证绿色电力ETF

太阳能 ETF - Guggenheim

全球清洁能源 ETF - iShares

鹏华科创板新能源ETF

中国环境指数 MSCI ETF - KraneShares

<p>由于伊朗战争引发的能源危机，国家们正在加速向清洁能源的转型，以减少对波动性化石燃料市场的依赖。然而，这一转变增加了对中国的依赖，因为中国在清洁技术供应链中占据主导地位，生产 80% 的太阳能电池板，并控制着能源转型所需的关键矿物。尽管对网络安全和地缘政治紧张局势存在担忧，菲律宾等国家仍在迅速推进可再生项目。各国正与中国接洽，以确保获得清洁技术，突显出复杂的战略格局</p>

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<p>America’s allies, grappling with surging energy costs triggered by Washington’s military strikes on Iran and the resulting disruption in global supply chains, are confronting a strategic dilemma.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国的盟友们正在应对因华盛顿对伊朗的军事打击及其导致的全球供应链中断而引发的能源成本飙升，面临着战略困境。</p>
</div><p>The crisis has highlighted the need to move away from volatile fossil fuel markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这场危机突显了摆脱不稳定化石燃料市场的必要性。</p>
</div><p>However, it has also exposed a new risk, as energy security increasingly depends on China, a dominant player in clean technology and critical minerals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，它也暴露出一种新的风险，因为能源安全越来越依赖于中国，而中国在清洁技术和关键矿产方面占据主导地位。</p>
</div><h2>War-driven energy crisis accelerates clean transition</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>战争驱动的能源危机加速清洁转型</h2>
</div><p>From the European Union and the United Kingdom to South Korea and the Philippines, governments have responded to the spike in oil and gas prices with renewed calls to accelerate electrification and expand clean energy infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从欧盟和英国到韩国和菲律宾，各国政府对油气价格的飙升作出了回应，重新呼吁加速电气化和扩展清洁能源基础设施。</p>
</div><p>The immediate trigger has been the disruption in energy flows following the effective blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>直接的触发因素是霍尔木兹海峡的能源流动中断，这是全球石油和液化天然气运输的一个关键节点。</p>
</div><p>Nations heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy imports have scrambled to contain the fallout, adopting short-term conservation measures while fast-tracking long-term energy transition plans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>严重依赖中东能源进口的国家急于控制后果，采取短期节能措施，同时加快长期能源转型计划。</p>
</div><p>Solar and wind installations, battery storage systems, and electric vehicle adoption are being pushed to the forefront of policy agendas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>太阳能和风能装置、电池储存系统以及电动汽车的采用被推到了政策议程的前沿。</p>
</div><p>Governments see domestically generated renewable energy and nuclear power as the most viable way to shield their economies from the geopolitical volatility that has long defined fossil fuel markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>各国政府将国内生产的可再生能源和核能视为保护其经济免受长期以来定义化石燃料市场的地缘政治波动的最可行方式。</p>
</div><h2>China’s dominance looms over decarbonisation push</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中国的主导地位笼罩着脱碳推动</h2>
</div><p>However, the shift toward clean energy comes with a significant caveat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，向清洁能源的转型伴随着一个重要的警告。</p>
</div><p>The faster countries attempt to decarbonise, the more they risk deepening their dependence on China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>各国越快尝试脱碳，就越有可能加深对中国的依赖。</p>
</div><p>Beijing commands an overwhelming share of the global supply chain for clean technologies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北京在全球清洁技术供应链中占据压倒性份额。</p>
</div><p>It produces nearly 80% of the world’s solar panels and dominates the manufacturing of critical components such as wafers and cells, according to the International Energy Agency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据国际能源署的数据，中国生产了近 80% 的全球太阳能电池板，并主导了晶圆和电池等关键组件的制造。</p>
</div><p>Its footprint extends across batteries, electric vehicles, and grid infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其足迹遍及电池、电动汽车和电网基础设施。</p>
</div><p>Even in wind turbines, where Europe retains a foothold, China still controls around 60 percent of output.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在风力涡轮机领域，尽管欧洲仍保有一席之地，中国仍控制着约 60% 的产量。</p>
</div><p>“China is the clear winner,” said David M. Hart, a senior fellow for climate and energy at the Council on Foreign Relations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“中国是明显的赢家，” 外交关系委员会气候与能源高级研究员大卫·M·哈特表示。</p>
</div><p>He noted that Beijing’s advantage goes beyond individual industries, encompassing broader manufacturing ecosystems and next-generation energy technologies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他指出，北京的优势不仅限于单个行业，还涵盖了更广泛的制造生态系统和下一代能源技术。</p>
</div><h2>Critical minerals tighten Beijing’s grip</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关键矿产加紧北京的控制</h2>
</div><p>Beyond manufacturing, China’s dominance extends into the upstream supply of critical minerals essential for the energy transition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了制造业，中国的主导地位还扩展到能源转型所需的关键矿产的上游供应。</p>
</div><p>The country refines roughly 90% of the world’s rare earth elements, which are vital for wind turbines and electric vehicles, and processes a majority share of lithium, cobalt, and other battery metals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该国精炼了全球约 90% 的稀土元素，这些元素对风力涡轮机和电动汽车至关重要，并处理了大部分锂、钴和其他电池金属。</p>
</div><p>This control gives Beijing significant leverage over global supply chains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种控制使北京在全球供应链中拥有了显著的杠杆作用。</p>
</div><p>Last year, China imposed export restrictions on several rare earths in response to US tariffs, highlighting the geopolitical risks embedded in the clean energy transition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，中国对几种稀土实施了出口限制，以回应美国的关税，突显了清洁能源转型中潜藏的地缘政治风险。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, concerns have emerged over cybersecurity and infrastructure vulnerabilities linked to Chinese-made components.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，关于与中国制造的组件相关的网络安全和基础设施脆弱性的担忧也浮出水面。</p>
</div><p>Reports of unexplained communication devices in solar equipment have further amplified unease among policymakers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于太阳能设备中出现无法解释的通信设备的报告进一步加剧了政策制定者的忧虑。</p>
</div><h2>Philippines exemplifies immediate impact</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>菲律宾 exemplifies immediate impact</h2>
</div><p>The Philippines offers a stark example of how the crisis is reshaping energy policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>菲律宾是危机如何重塑能源政策的一个鲜明例子。</p>
</div><p>With approximately 98% of its oil imported from the Middle East, the country was among the first to declare an energy emergency following the disruption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该国约 98% 的石油依赖中东进口，在中断后成为首批宣布能源紧急状态的国家之一。</p>
</div><p>Authorities introduced a four-day work week to curb consumption and have moved quickly to accelerate renewable energy projects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当局推出了四天工作周以抑制消费，并迅速加快可再生能源项目的推进。</p>
</div><p>Developers report that regulatory approvals, which previously took months, are now being granted within days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>开发商报告称，之前需要几个月的监管审批现在在几天内就能获得。</p>
</div><p>“This is not theory — this is actually happening on the ground now,” said Rahul Agrawal, the developer of one of the largest projects in a WSJ report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这不是理论——这实际上正在地面上发生，” 开发商拉胡尔·阿格拉瓦尔在《华尔街日报》的一篇报道中表示。</p>
</div><p>Yet the pivot toward renewables is likely to increase Manila’s reliance on Chinese technology, even as tensions persist between the two countries over territorial disputes in the South China Sea.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，向可再生能源的转型可能会增加马尼拉对中国技术的依赖，即使两国在南海的领土争端中紧张关系依然存在。</p>
</div><h2>Countries seek closer engagement with Beijing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>各国寻求与北京更紧密的接触</h2>
</div><p>Despite strategic concerns, countries are increasingly engaging with China to secure access to clean technologies and raw materials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管存在战略担忧，各国正越来越多地与中国接触，以确保获得清洁技术和原材料。</p>
</div><p>European leaders have been particularly active.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲领导人尤其活跃。</p>
</div><p>Germany’s economy minister is expected to visit Beijing soon, following recent trips by the country’s chancellor and environment minister aimed at strengthening economic ties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国经济部长预计将很快访问北京，此前该国总理和环境部长也进行了旨在加强经济联系的访问。</p>
</div><p>Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has made multiple visits in recent years to secure critical resources.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西班牙首相佩德罗·桑切斯近年来多次访问以确保关键资源。</p>
</div><p>Leaders from Canada, Finland, Ireland, and the United Kingdom have also sought closer engagement, while non-Western nations are following suit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自加拿大、芬兰、爱尔兰和英国的领导人也寻求更紧密的接触，而非西方国家也在效仿。</p>
</div><p>An Indian business delegation recently explored green energy partnerships in China, and the United Arab Emirates has discussed deeper cooperation on energy with Beijing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个印度商业代表团最近在中国探索绿色能源合作，而阿联酋也与北京讨论了更深层次的能源合作。</p>
</div><p>Even countries under economic pressure, such as Cuba, have turned to Chinese solar technology to offset supply constraints.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使是面临经济压力的国家，如古巴，也转向中国的太阳能技术以缓解供应限制。</p>
</div><h2>Protectionism rises amid industrial fears</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>保护主义在工业担忧中上升</h2>
</div><p>At the same time, governments are attempting to balance access to Chinese technology with the need to protect domestic industries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，各国政府试图在获得中国技术的同时保护国内产业。</p>
</div><p>The European Union has introduced tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel, while the United States has imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese EV imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧盟对中国电动汽车和钢铁征收了关税，而美国对中国电动汽车进口征收了 100% 的关税。</p>
</div><p>Several Asian economies have adopted similar measures or introduced local content requirements.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些亚洲经济体也采取了类似措施或引入了本地内容要求。</p>
</div><p>New industrial policies in Europe aim to ensure that a portion of demand for green technologies is met through domestic production by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲的新工业政策旨在确保到 2030 年，绿色技术的部分需求通过国内生产来满足。</p>
</div><p>Proposals under discussion include caps on foreign investment from countries that dominate global manufacturing in clean technologies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正在讨论的提案包括对主导清洁技术全球制造的国家的外国投资设定上限。</p>
</div><p>The United Kingdom has also taken a cautious approach, blocking a Chinese firm from building a major wind turbine factory over national security concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英国也采取了谨慎的态度，因国家安全担忧而阻止一家中国公司在其境内建设大型风力涡轮机工厂。</p>
</div><h2>Trade-offs threaten pace of transition</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>权衡取舍威胁转型速度</h2>
</div><p>These protective measures come with economic trade-offs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些保护措施伴随着经济上的权衡。</p>
</div><p>Domestic production tends to be more expensive than importing Chinese goods, potentially slowing the rollout of clean energy infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国内生产往往比进口中国商品更昂贵，这可能会减缓清洁能源基础设施的推广。</p>
</div><p>“If you tilt too much towards domestic production, that might come at the expense of the speed of decarbonisation,” said Simone Tagliapietra, a senior fellow at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel in a Politico report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果过于倾向于国内生产，可能会以减碳速度为代价，” 布鲁塞尔智库 Bruegel 的高级研究员西蒙娜·塔利亚皮特拉在《政治家》报道中表示。</p>
</div><p>The dilemma underscores a broader reality: achieving a rapid energy transition without some degree of reliance on China is proving exceedingly difficult.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一困境凸显了一个更广泛的现实：在没有一定程度依赖中国的情况下，实现快速的能源转型正变得极为困难。</p>
</div><h2>Climate gains offset by short-term emissions risks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>气候收益被短期排放风险抵消</h2>
</div><p>In the long term, the global diffusion of China’s clean energy technologies is expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从长远来看，中国清洁能源技术的全球传播预计将减少温室气体排放。</p>
</div><p>Electric vehicles and renewable power systems offer clear advantages over fossil fuel-based alternatives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电动汽车和可再生能源系统相较于基于化石燃料的替代品具有明显优势。</p>
</div><p>However, the near-term outlook is more complex.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，近期前景更加复杂。</p>
</div><p>Rising electricity demand driven by electrification could increase reliance on coal, particularly in China, where coal still plays a central role in power generation and industrial activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于电气化驱动的电力需求上升，可能会增加对煤炭的依赖，尤其是在中国，煤炭在发电和工业活动中仍然扮演着核心角色。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the conflict has disrupted another key pathway for emissions reduction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，冲突扰乱了另一个关键的减排途径。</p>
</div><p>The shift from coal to liquefied natural gas, once seen as a transitional solution, is likely to slow significantly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从煤炭转向液化天然气，曾被视为过渡解决方案，可能会显著放缓。</p>
</div><p>Damage to LNG infrastructure in Qatar could take years to repair, while the psychological impact of supply disruptions may linger even longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡塔尔液化天然气基础设施的损坏可能需要数年才能修复，而供应中断的心理影响可能会持续更久。</p>
</div><p>The post How the energy crisis from Iran war is boosting China’s edge in global clean tech appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这篇文章的标题为《伊朗战争引发的能源危机如何提升中国在全球清洁技术中的优势》，首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
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伊朗战争引发的能源危机如何增强了中国在全球清洁技术领域的竞争优势