<p>如果你在过去一年里一直持有科技股，那么你可能感受到了市场的变化。</p>
<p>2026 年第一季度并不友好。软件类股票遭受重创。一些半导体股票回落。即使是表现最好的科技公司也在抛售，大家开始问：</p>
<p>如果人工智能不仅仅是在推动这些公司，而是在颠覆它们呢？</p>
<p>这就是一切的开始。基于恐惧的资金轮换开始在不相关的科技领域发生。短时间内，大家开始认真考虑这一主题的主导地位。</p>
<p>但与此同时，还有其他事情在发生。当价格下跌时，基本面却在朝相反的方向发展。</p>
<h2><strong>抛售是真实的，但过度反应也同样存在</strong></h2>
<p>在 2026 年，网络安全股票是最大的输家之一，整体软件行业也受到影响。这在很大程度上是由于市场的整体情绪。投资者担心人工智能，特别是会让许多现有的科技公司倒闭。</p>
<p>这种恐惧几乎在一夜之间占据了整个行业。网络安全领域成为了这些头条新闻的 “受害者”。尽管实际需求并没有急剧下降，但估值却大幅下滑。</p>
<p>但这并不仅仅是小型企业的问题。作为该领域的领导者之一，微软在年初前损失了近 20% 的市值，随后在一周内反弹了 13%。</p>
<p>这一切都值得深思。显然，这与恐惧和资金的快速重新配置有关。</p>
<p>但投资者并没有完全离开科技领域。资金流入了半导体和人工智能基础设施企业。被视为人工智能繁荣直接受益者的大型股票也看到了资金流入。这使得软件行业处于冷落状态。</p>
<h2><strong>盈利故事讲述了完全不同的情况</strong></h2>
<p>现在，很多人忽视了这一点。随着科技股的下跌，盈利预期却在上升。</p>
<p>根据高盛的数据显示，科技行业最近经历了 50 年来相对收益最差的时期。</p>
<p>但与此同时，科技公司在 2026 年获得了所有行业中最大的正向盈利修正。此外，该行业预计将在标准普尔 500 指数中成为盈利增长的领导者，净利润率预计将上升至 28.9%，这将是所有行业中最高的。</p>
<p>而且这还不是全部。预计人工智能的支出将推动标准普尔 500 指数中 40% 的盈利增长。</p>
<p>因此，当投资者因恐惧而抛售科技股时，这些公司的实际盈利引擎却在变得更强。这种脱节正是高盛称之为 “科技价值机会” 的原因。</p>
<h2><strong>估值已经重置，这改变了一切</strong></h2>
<p>让我们谈谈估值，因为这正是事情真正发生转变的地方。</p>
<p>多年来，科技股一直附带某种溢价，有时甚至是相当高的溢价。这在业绩持续交付的情况下是有效的。</p>
<p>然而，在最近的下跌之后，显然这种溢价已经大幅降低。</p>
<p>事实上，全球科技行业的估值现在低于整体市场的市盈率。这相当不寻常，因为该行业的交易价格通常高于大多数其他行业，包括消费品和工业。</p>
<p>在美国市场也是如此，顶级科技公司与整体市场之间的估值差异大幅减少。</p>
<p>所以现在你面临的情况是，盈利在增长，利润率强劲，但价格却下跌。这在如此主导的行业中并不常见。</p>
<h2><strong>那么，为什么会发生这种情况？</strong></h2>
<p>除了对人工智能的担忧，还有其他恐惧。</p>
<p>首先，资本投资上升。美国顶级超大规模企业在 2025 年在其人工智能基础设施上的投资约为 4000 亿美元，比前一年增加了 70%。这引发了与投资回报率相关的担忧。在过去，基础设施繁荣并不总是惠及早期投资者。</p>
<p>其次，投资者开始质疑长期增长假设。如果人工智能改变了软件的构建和使用方式，那么这对现有公司的价值意味着什么？</p>
<p>资本被重新配置。流入科技行业的资本减少，更多资金流向了受到人工智能需求增加直接影响的行业，如能源、工业和材料。</p>
<p>最后，资产负债表出现了变化。大型科技公司的债务增加，引发了投资者的不安，他们在过去几年中享受了完美的资产负债表。</p>
<p>将上述所有因素结合起来，就形成了抛售的合理理由。但再说一次，盈利并没有崩溃。</p>
<h2><strong>市场可能已经开始逆转</strong></h2>
<p>如果你在想最糟糕的情况是否已经过去，股市已经开始给出答案。</p>
<p>纳斯达克综合指数成功触及超过 24000 的历史高点，表明风险偏好恢复。</p>
<p>科技行业也出现了强劲反弹，股票相比 2 月初上涨了超过 6%。这超过了标准普尔 500 指数的整体增长。</p>
<p>即使是一些较为保守的分析师也开始转向乐观。他们现在认为，人工智能会杀死软件行业的想法被夸大了。其他人，如投资者迈克尔·伯里，在看到过度下跌后也开始看涨。</p>
<p>一旦情绪在大幅下跌后发生变化，事情就会迅速发展。因此，实际问题变成了：如果价格下跌而利润保持不变，这将导致什么？一个机会。</p>
<p>这使我们能够识别出一个与其基本面相比被低估的行业。这正是高盛所指向的局面。这并不意味着 “买入一切”。</p>
<p>这意味着要有选择性。关注那些受到重创的领域，比如软件，但仍然有强劲需求和长期增长驱动因素，如云计算和人工智能的采用。因为如果这些因素持续存在，那么这只是科技行业的暂时挫折。</p>
<p><strong><em>Benzinga 免责声明：本文来自一位未付费的外部贡献者。它不代表 Benzinga 的报道，并且未经过内容或准确性编辑。</em></strong></p>

大盘指数 MSCI ETF - Vanguard

天弘中证计算机主题ETF

美国科技股指数 ETF - iShares

<p>科技股在 2026 年初遭遇了显著的下跌，原因是人们担心人工智能可能会扰乱现有公司。尽管出现了抛售，但科技公司的盈利预期却有所上升，该行业预计将在标准普尔 500 指数中引领盈利增长。估值已经重置，科技股目前的交易水平低于整体市场平均水平。对资本投资和长期增长假设的担忧加剧了抛售，但基础盈利的强劲表现暗示科技行业可能会复苏</p>

<p>If you’ve been hanging on to your tech stocks over the past year, then you've probably felt it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在过去一年里一直持有科技股，那么你可能感受到了市场的变化。</p>
</div><p>The first quarter of 2026 wasn't kind. Software names got hit hard. Some semiconductor stocks pulled back. Even the best-performing tech firms were selling off, such that everyone started to ask:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年第一季度并不友好。软件类股票遭受重创。一些半导体股票回落。即使是表现最好的科技公司也在抛售，大家开始问：</p>
</div><p>What if the AI isn't just boosting these companies, but is disrupting them?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果人工智能不仅仅是在推动这些公司，而是在颠覆它们呢？</p>
</div><p>And that was all it took. A fear-based rotation began in out-of-key tech sectors. And for a little while, there was a very real consideration of one of its most dominant themes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是一切的开始。基于恐惧的资金轮换开始在不相关的科技领域发生。短时间内，大家开始认真考虑这一主题的主导地位。</p>
</div><p>But there was something else happening. While the prices were falling, the fundamentals were moving in the opposite direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但与此同时，还有其他事情在发生。当价格下跌时，基本面却在朝相反的方向发展。</p>
</div><h2><strong>The Sell-Off Was Real, But So Was the Overreaction</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>抛售是真实的，但过度反应也同样存在</strong></h2>
</div><p>Among the biggest losers in 2026 were cybersecurity stocks and, generally speaking, the software industry as well. Much of this was due to the overall market sentiment. Investors feared that artificial intelligence, specifically, was going to put a lot of existing technology companies out of business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 年，网络安全股票是最大的输家之一，整体软件行业也受到影响。这在很大程度上是由于市场的整体情绪。投资者担心人工智能，特别是会让许多现有的科技公司倒闭。</p>
</div><p>The fears took over the industry almost overnight. The cybersecurity sector became &#34;victims&#34; of those headlines. Although it was never about the actual demand going into the gutter, it was the valuation fell dramatically.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种恐惧几乎在一夜之间占据了整个行业。网络安全领域成为了这些头条新闻的 “受害者”。尽管实际需求并没有急剧下降，但估值却大幅下滑。</p>
</div><p>But it wasn’t even just the smaller players. Microsoft, one of the leaders in the field, lost almost 20% YTD before turning around and delivering a spectacular rally of 13% in one week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这并不仅仅是小型企业的问题。作为该领域的领导者之一，微软在年初前损失了近 20% 的市值，随后在一周内反弹了 13%。</p>
</div><p>There was something to be said about all of this. Clearly, this was about fears and the fast reallocation of funds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一切都值得深思。显然，这与恐惧和资金的快速重新配置有关。</p>
</div><p>But investors did not leave tech entirely. Money flowed into semiconductor and AI-infrastructure businesses. Large-cap stocks that were seen as direct beneficiaries of the AI boom also saw inflows. And that left software out in the cold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但投资者并没有完全离开科技领域。资金流入了半导体和人工智能基础设施企业。被视为人工智能繁荣直接受益者的大型股票也看到了资金流入。这使得软件行业处于冷落状态。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Earnings Story Tells a Completely Different Story</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>盈利故事讲述了完全不同的情况</strong></h2>
</div><p>Now here's the part most people miss. As tech stocks declined, earnings estimates were going up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，很多人忽视了这一点。随着科技股的下跌，盈利预期却在上升。</p>
</div><p>According to Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), the technology industry recently had its worst-ever period for relative gains in 50 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据高盛的数据显示，科技行业最近经历了 50 年来相对收益最差的时期。</p>
</div><p>But at the same time, Tech companies had the largest positive earnings revisions out of all industries in 2026. In addition, the sector is forecasted to be the leader in earnings growth in the S&amp;P 500 Index, and net profit margins are estimated to increase to 28.9%, which would be the highest across all industries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但与此同时，科技公司在 2026 年获得了所有行业中最大的正向盈利修正。此外，该行业预计将在标准普尔 500 指数中成为盈利增长的领导者，净利润率预计将上升至 28.9%，这将是所有行业中最高的。</p>
</div><p>And this is not all. Spending on artificial intelligence is expected to fuel 40% of earnings growth in the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且这还不是全部。预计人工智能的支出将推动标准普尔 500 指数中 40% 的盈利增长。</p>
</div><p>So while investors were selling tech stocks out of fear, the actual earnings engine behind those companies was getting stronger. That disconnect is exactly why Goldman is calling this a &#34;technology value opportunity.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，当投资者因恐惧而抛售科技股时，这些公司的实际盈利引擎却在变得更强。这种脱节正是高盛称之为 “科技价值机会” 的原因。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Valuations Have Reset And That Changes Everything</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>估值已经重置，这改变了一切</strong></h2>
</div><p>Let's talk valuations, because this is where things really shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们谈谈估值，因为这正是事情真正发生转变的地方。</p>
</div><p>For many years, there had been some kind of premium attached to tech stocks, sometimes it was a hefty one. And that worked as long as performance kept delivering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年来，科技股一直附带某种溢价，有时甚至是相当高的溢价。这在业绩持续交付的情况下是有效的。</p>
</div><p>However, after the last decline, it is clear that this premium has been heavily reduced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在最近的下跌之后，显然这种溢价已经大幅降低。</p>
</div><p>In fact, the global tech sector is now valued below the overall market using a P/E ratio. This is quite unusual, considering that the sector trades above most other industries, including consumer discretionary and industrials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，全球科技行业的估值现在低于整体市场的市盈率。这相当不寻常，因为该行业的交易价格通常高于大多数其他行业，包括消费品和工业。</p>
</div><p>It is the same even in the US market, where the valuation difference between the top tech firms and the general market has drastically decreased.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国市场也是如此，顶级科技公司与整体市场之间的估值差异大幅减少。</p>
</div><p>So now you have a situation where earnings are growing, and margins are strong, but prices have come down. That's not something you see often in a sector this dominant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以现在你面临的情况是，盈利在增长，利润率强劲，但价格却下跌。这在如此主导的行业中并不常见。</p>
</div><h2><strong>So Why Did This Happen in the First Place?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>那么，为什么会发生这种情况？</strong></h2>
</div><p>There were other fears besides that of AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了对人工智能的担忧，还有其他恐惧。</p>
</div><p>Firstly, capital investment went up. The top U.S. hyperscalers invested around $400 billion in their AI infrastructure in 2025, representing a 70% increase from the previous year. It caused worries related to ROI. In the past, infrastructure booms have not always benefited early investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，资本投资上升。美国顶级超大规模企业在 2025 年在其人工智能基础设施上的投资约为 4000 亿美元，比前一年增加了 70%。这引发了与投资回报率相关的担忧。在过去，基础设施繁荣并不总是惠及早期投资者。</p>
</div><p>Second, investors started questioning long-term growth assumptions. If AI changes how software is built and used, what does that mean for the value of existing companies?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，投资者开始质疑长期增长假设。如果人工智能改变了软件的构建和使用方式，那么这对现有公司的价值意味着什么？</p>
</div><p>The capital was reallocated. There was less capital flowing into the technology sector and more money heading into industries that were immediately impacted by the increase in AI demand, like energy, industrials, and materials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>资本被重新配置。流入科技行业的资本减少，更多资金流向了受到人工智能需求增加直接影响的行业，如能源、工业和材料。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, there was a shift seen in balance sheets. An increase was seen in debt within large tech firms, causing uneasiness among investors who have enjoyed perfect balance sheets for a few years now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，资产负债表出现了变化。大型科技公司的债务增加，引发了投资者的不安，他们在过去几年中享受了完美的资产负债表。</p>
</div><p>Combine all the above factors, and it creates a logical reason for a sell-off. But again, the earnings didn't break.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将上述所有因素结合起来，就形成了抛售的合理理由。但再说一次，盈利并没有崩溃。</p>
</div><h2><strong>The Market May Already Be Reversing Course</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>市场可能已经开始逆转</strong></h2>
</div><p>In case you were thinking whether the worst was over, the stock market is already beginning to give an answer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在想最糟糕的情况是否已经过去，股市已经开始给出答案。</p>
</div><p>The Nasdaq Composite Index managed to touch record levels at over 24,000, indicating renewed appetite for risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纳斯达克综合指数成功触及超过 24000 的历史高点，表明风险偏好恢复。</p>
</div><p>There was also a strong rebound in the tech sector, where stocks rose over 6% compared to early February levels. This outpaces the overall growth in the broader S&amp;P 500 index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科技行业也出现了强劲反弹，股票相比 2 月初上涨了超过 6%。这超过了标准普尔 500 指数的整体增长。</p>
</div><p>Even some of the more reserved analysts have already begun to turn positive. They now believe that the idea that artificial intelligence would kill the software industry is exaggerated. Others, like investor Michael Burry, are turning bullish after what they see as excessive declines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使是一些较为保守的分析师也开始转向乐观。他们现在认为，人工智能会杀死软件行业的想法被夸大了。其他人，如投资者迈克尔·伯里，在看到过度下跌后也开始看涨。</p>
</div><p>And once sentiment changes after a big fall, things move swiftly. So the actual question becomes this; if prices fall while profits remain intact, what would that result in? An Opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一旦情绪在大幅下跌后发生变化，事情就会迅速发展。因此，实际问题变成了：如果价格下跌而利润保持不变，这将导致什么？一个机会。</p>
</div><p>This allows us to identify an industry that is undervalued compared to its fundamentals. That's the setup Goldman is pointing to. And this doesn't essentially mean &#34;buy everything.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使我们能够识别出一个与其基本面相比被低估的行业。这正是高盛所指向的局面。这并不意味着 “买入一切”。</p>
</div><p>It means being selective. Looking at areas that were hit hardest, like software, but still have strong demand and long-term growth drivers like cloud computing and AI adoption. Because if those factors continue, this was only a temporary setback for the tech industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着要有选择性。关注那些受到重创的领域，比如软件，但仍然有强劲需求和长期增长驱动因素，如云计算和人工智能的采用。因为如果这些因素持续存在，那么这只是科技行业的暂时挫折。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>Benzinga 免责声明：本文来自一位未付费的外部贡献者。它不代表 Benzinga 的报道，并且未经过内容或准确性编辑。</em></strong></p>
</div>

Tech Stocks Crashed — But Wall Street Says The Worst May Be Over

benzinga_article

国泰中证全指集成电路ETF

信息科技 ETF - Vanguard

FRNKL EXP DT ETF

信息技术指数 MSCI ETF - Fidelity

国泰中证计算机主题ETF

费城交易所 半导体 ETF - iShares

动态半导体 ETF - Invesco

嘉实中证全指集成电路ETF

国泰CES半导体芯片行业ETF

云计算 ETF - GlobalX

标普半导体 ETF - SPDR

标普 500 ETF - Vanguard

半导体 ETF - VanEck Vectors

招商中证半导体产业ETF

高科技指数 ETF - SPDR

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Tech ETF

国联安半导体ETF

国泰标普500ETF

华夏国证半导体芯片ETF

纳斯达克半导体 ETF - First Trust

北美科技软件股指数 ETF - iShares

标普软件与服务 ETF - SPDR

Proshares Big Data Refiners ETF

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

微软

高盛

标普 500 指数

GS Hldg R

科技股经历了崩盘——但华尔街认为最糟糕的时期可能已经过去