<p>据路透社报道，考虑到中东的不确定性，日本央行可能在四月维持利率不变，但会发出准备在六月尽快加息的信号，因为通胀上升和增长风险增加。</p>
<p>摘要：</p>
<ul>
<li>日本央行预计在中东不确定性中维持四月利率不变</li>
<li>此决定被视为临近的抉择，取决于地缘政治</li>
<li>四月加息的市场定价降至 20% 以下</li>
<li>银行可能保持鹰派倾向，关注六月加息</li>
<li>经济增长预测下调，通胀预期上调</li>
<li>能源冲击使政策路径复杂化</li>
</ul>
<p>根据知情人士的说法，日本银行在即将到来的四月会议上越来越可能维持利率稳定，因为政策制定者正在评估持续的中东冲突带来的影响，路透社报道。</p>
<p>官员们表示，此决定被视为临近的抉择，结果仍然取决于美伊谈判和更广泛的地缘政治条件的发展。然而，银行内部的意见平衡似乎倾向于暂停，以便有更多时间评估高能源价格和加剧的不确定性对经济和通胀的影响。</p>
<p>这一转变反映出对近期加息的早期预期的转变。由于行长上田和夫的谨慎言论，四月加息的市场定价急剧下降，降至 20% 以下，他强调了监测能源冲击的规模和持续时间的重要性。</p>
<p>尽管可能暂停加息，预计日本银行仍将保持鹰派倾向。消息人士表示，日本央行将发出准备在六月尽早恢复加息的信号，特别是在通胀压力加大的情况下。与冲突相关的油价上涨正在推高日本的进口成本，使得对高度依赖外部能源供应的经济的政策前景变得复杂。</p>
<p>与此同时，预计日本央行将在即将发布的季度展望报告中下调其经济增长预测，同时上调通胀预期。尽管中央银行仍然认为经济有望实现温和复苏，但活动风险已经增加，特别是通过对制造业和家庭成本的影响。</p>
<p>由于政策利率仍低于估计的中性水平，实际利率深度负值，进一步收紧的理由依然存在。然而，随着政策制定者在上升的通胀风险与脆弱的增长背景之间进行权衡，时机变得更加不确定。</p>
<p>---</p>
<p>鹰派的维持对利率总体上是中性的，但如果指引倾向于六月加息，则在短期内对日元有支持。然而，推迟加息可能会导致日元再次走弱，特别是在全球收益率保持高位的情况下。风险平衡使得日本国债收益率偏向上升，而外汇市场对能源驱动的通胀动态保持敏感。</p>

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<p>日本银行（BOJ）预计将在四月份维持利率不变，原因是中东局势的不确定性持续存在，随着通胀风险上升，可能在六月份进行加息。市场对四月份加息的预期已降至 20% 以下。日本银行可能会保持鹰派立场，同时下调经济增长预测并上调通胀预期。政策制定者谨慎行事，平衡不断上升的通胀与脆弱的经济增长，尤其是受到高企能源价格的影响</p>

<p>BOJ is likely to hold rates in April amid Middle East uncertainty, Reuters reports, but signal readiness to hike as soon as June as inflation rises and growth risks increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>据路透社报道，考虑到中东的不确定性，日本央行可能在四月维持利率不变，但会发出准备在六月尽快加息的信号，因为通胀上升和增长风险增加。</p>
</div><p>Summary:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摘要：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>BOJ seen holding rates in April amid Middle East uncertainty</li>
<li>Decision viewed as close call, dependent on geopolitics</li>
<li>Market pricing for April hike drops below 20%</li>
<li>Bank likely to retain hawkish bias, eye June hike</li>
<li>Growth forecasts seen lowered, inflation projections raised</li>
<li>Energy shock complicates policy path</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本央行预计在中东不确定性中维持四月利率不变</li>
<li>此决定被视为临近的抉择，取决于地缘政治</li>
<li>四月加息的市场定价降至 20% 以下</li>
<li>银行可能保持鹰派倾向，关注六月加息</li>
<li>经济增长预测下调，通胀预期上调</li>
<li>能源冲击使政策路径复杂化</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The Bank of Japan is increasingly likely to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming April meeting, according to sources familiar with its thinking, as policymakers assess the fallout from the ongoing Middle East conflict, Reuters reports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据知情人士的说法，日本银行在即将到来的四月会议上越来越可能维持利率稳定，因为政策制定者正在评估持续的中东冲突带来的影响，路透社报道。</p>
</div><p>Officials are said to view the decision as a close call, with the outcome still dependent on developments in US-Iran negotiations and broader geopolitical conditions. However, the balance of opinion within the Bank appears to favour a pause, allowing more time to evaluate the economic and inflation impact of elevated energy prices and heightened uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>官员们表示，此决定被视为临近的抉择，结果仍然取决于美伊谈判和更广泛的地缘政治条件的发展。然而，银行内部的意见平衡似乎倾向于暂停，以便有更多时间评估高能源价格和加剧的不确定性对经济和通胀的影响。</p>
</div><p>The shift reflects a move away from earlier expectations of a near-term rate hike. Market pricing for an April increase has declined sharply, falling below 20% following cautious remarks from Governor Kazuo Ueda, who emphasised the importance of monitoring the scale and duration of the energy shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一转变反映出对近期加息的早期预期的转变。由于行长上田和夫的谨慎言论，四月加息的市场定价急剧下降，降至 20% 以下，他强调了监测能源冲击的规模和持续时间的重要性。</p>
</div><p>Despite the likely pause, the Bank is expected to maintain a hawkish bias. Sources indicate the BOJ will signal its readiness to resume rate hikes as early as June, particularly as inflationary pressures build. Oil price gains linked to the conflict are pushing up import costs in Japan, complicating the policy outlook for an economy heavily reliant on external energy supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管可能暂停加息，预计日本银行仍将保持鹰派倾向。消息人士表示，日本央行将发出准备在六月尽早恢复加息的信号，特别是在通胀压力加大的情况下。与冲突相关的油价上涨正在推高日本的进口成本，使得对高度依赖外部能源供应的经济的政策前景变得复杂。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the BOJ is expected to revise down its growth forecasts while lifting its inflation projections in its upcoming quarterly outlook report. While the central bank still sees the economy on track for a moderate recovery, risks to activity have increased, particularly through the impact on manufacturing and household costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，预计日本央行将在即将发布的季度展望报告中下调其经济增长预测，同时上调通胀预期。尽管中央银行仍然认为经济有望实现温和复苏，但活动风险已经增加，特别是通过对制造业和家庭成本的影响。</p>
</div><p>With policy rates still below estimated neutral levels and real rates deeply negative, the case for further tightening remains intact. However, the timing has become more uncertain as policymakers balance rising inflation risks against a fragile growth backdrop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于政策利率仍低于估计的中性水平，实际利率深度负值，进一步收紧的理由依然存在。然而，随着政策制定者在上升的通胀风险与脆弱的增长背景之间进行权衡，时机变得更加不确定。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div><p>A hawkish hold is broadly neutral for rates but supportive for JPY in the near term if guidance leans toward June tightening. However, delaying hikes risks renewed yen weakness, particularly if global yields remain elevated. The balance of risks keeps JGB yields biased higher while FX remains sensitive to energy-driven inflation dynamics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鹰派的维持对利率总体上是中性的，但如果指引倾向于六月加息，则在短期内对日元有支持。然而，推迟加息可能会导致日元再次走弱，特别是在全球收益率保持高位的情况下。风险平衡使得日本国债收益率偏向上升，而外汇市场对能源驱动的通胀动态保持敏感。</p>
</div>

BOJ likely to hold rates in April but signal readiness to hike as inflation risks rise

日本央行可能在四月份维持利率不变，但随着通胀风险的增加，可能会发出准备加息的信号