<p>根据基金经理和投资银行的说法，由于对与人民币相关资产的避险需求、房地产市场的复苏迹象以及科技初创企业被纳入主要股指，中国股票可能会继续保持自中东战争开始以来所表现出的韧性。随着官方数据显示中国大陆最大城市的房价逆转下跌趋势，以及 3 月份通胀趋势的形成，关于中国股票的乐观情绪正在上升，BNP Paribas Asset Management 和 Invesco 等资金管理者表示。同时，摩根士丹利表示，预计 6 月份更多人工智能公司，如知识图谱和 MiniMax，将被纳入香港的基准指数和科技指数，这可能会吸引更多新资本。中国经济中疲弱部分的复苏表明，世界第二大经济体的最糟糕时期可能已经过去，该国继续受益于创新技术、人工智能的采用和强大的全球供应链。在过去两个月中，随着美国与以色列对伊朗的战争，海外投资者寻求对冲，中国资产重新受到青睐，推动股票和债券同时上涨。“温和通胀的回归对中国企业的收入和利润是个好消息，” BNP Paribas Asset 的策略师 Chi Lo 表示。“中国房地产市场困境的最糟糕时期可能已经过去。未来它将对增长的拖累变得更小。” 统计局上周表示，包括上海和北京在内的一线城市的二手房价格在 3 月份较上月上涨，而国家经济在第一季度以超过预期的 5% 的速度增长。早期数据显示，3 月份生产者价格（工业产品的一个指标）同比上涨 0.5%，结束了 41 个月的下降趋势。Lo 表示，尽管缺乏有意义的刺激措施，第一季度房地产价格的稳定显示出四年的房地产下滑可能已经走到了尽头，这与去年同期在 2024 年 9 月推出强刺激计划后短暂反弹的情况形成对比。人民币的走强也增强了对股票的信心。自美国开始对伊朗进行打击以来，人民币对美元上涨了约 0.7%，成为亚洲唯一升值的货币。“中国的股票和债券在两年来首次呈正相关，反映出避险资本流入，” Invesco 的策略师 David Chao 表示。“更强的 [人民币] 表明宏观经济和政策的稳定，应该吸引外国资本流入中国股票和债券。” 汇丰前海证券本月在一份报告中表示，由于相对隔离于油价冲击、良好的经济开局以及中国在绿色能源和高端制造业的领先地位，中国股票将保持韧性。摩根士丹利表示，预计 6 月份 AI 公司知识图谱（也称为智谱）和 MiniMax 被广泛纳入恒生指数和恒生科技指数，将进一步推动股票上涨。这些股票在每个指数中的合计权重可能达到 3% 和 7%。美国投资银行在周日的报告中表示，进一步推动科技股动能的是，这两只股票在市值达到入场门槛后，可能会通过交易所互联互通计划获得大陆投资者的交易资格。尽管预计路径将保持波动，但中国股票到年底可能会上涨 5% 至 10%，情绪将在地缘政治紧张的不确定性和互联网行业价格战结束等积极因素之间摇摆。</p>

恒生科技指数

上证指数

深证成指

国企指数

沪深300

恒生指数

<p>中国股票因对与人民币相关资产的避险需求、房价回升以及科技初创企业纳入关键指数而显示出韧性。随着主要城市房价的稳定和通胀趋势的出现，乐观情绪正在上升。预计将人工智能公司纳入香港指数将吸引新资本。分析师认为，中国经济下滑的最糟糕时期可能已经过去，尽管地缘政治不确定性依然存在，预计到年底股票将上涨 5-10%</p>

<p>Chinese stocks are likely to continue the resilience they have shown since the war in the Middle East began, thanks to haven demand for yuan-linked assets, the green shoots of the property market and the inclusion of tech start-ups in key equity gauges, according to fund managers and investment banks. Optimism about Chinese equities was building after official data showed that home prices in the biggest mainland cities reversed declines and an inflationary trend took hold in March, said money managers including BNP Paribas Asset Management and Invesco. Meanwhile, the expected addition of more artificial intelligence companies, such as Knowledge Atlas and MiniMax, to Hong Kong’s benchmark index and tech gauge in June could draw more fresh capital, Morgan Stanley said. Recovery in the weak parts of China’s economy signals that the worst for the world’s second-largest economy is probably behind it, and the nation continues to benefit from innovative technology, AI adoption and strong global supply chains. Chinese assets have regained favour among overseas investors seeking hedges amid the US-Israel war on Iran over the past two months, driving gains in stocks and bonds simultaneously. “The return of mild inflation is good news for Chinese corporate revenue and profit,” said Chi Lo, a strategist at BNP Paribas Asset. “It is likely that the worst of China’s property market woes has passed. It will become a smaller drag on growth going forward.” Second-hand home prices in the first-tier cities including Shanghai and Beijing rose from the previous month in March, while the nation’s economy grew by a faster-than-expected 5 per cent in the first quarter, the statistics bureau said last week. Earlier data also showed that producer prices, a gauge of industrial products, increased 0.5 per cent in March year on year, snapping a 41-month streak of declines. The stabilisation in property prices in the first quarter – despite a lack of meaningful stimulus measures – showed that the four-year property downturn could have run its course, Lo said, contrasting the situation from a short-lived rebound at the same time last year after a strong stimulus package unveiled in September 2024. A stronger yuan is also bolstering sentiment on stocks. The Chinese currency has risen about 0.7 per cent against the US dollar since the US began its strikes on Iran – the only currency in Asia to appreciate. “Stocks and bonds in China have also moved in positive correlation for the first time in two years, reflecting haven-like capital inflows,” said David Chao, a strategist at Invesco. “The stronger [yuan] signals macroeconomic and policy stability and should attract foreign capital inflows into Chinese equities and bonds.” HSBC Qianhai Securities said in a report this month that China stocks would remain resilient because of their relative insulation from the oil shock, a good economic start to the year and the nation’s leading position in green energy and high-end manufacturing. Stocks could get a further boost in June from the widely expected addition of AI firms Knowledge Atlas, also known as Zhipu, and MiniMax to the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index, according to Morgan Stanley. The stocks would have combined weightings of up to 3 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively, in each gauge, it added. Further adding to tech shares’ momentum, the two stocks were likely to become eligible for trading by mainland investors through the exchange link programme after their market capitalisations met the entry threshold, the US investment bank said in a report on Sunday. Chinese stocks could gain between 5 and 10 per cent by the end of the year, though the path was expected to remain choppy, with sentiment swaying between the uncertainty of geopolitical tensions and positives like an end to the price war in the internet sector, it said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据基金经理和投资银行的说法，由于对与人民币相关资产的避险需求、房地产市场的复苏迹象以及科技初创企业被纳入主要股指，中国股票可能会继续保持自中东战争开始以来所表现出的韧性。随着官方数据显示中国大陆最大城市的房价逆转下跌趋势，以及 3 月份通胀趋势的形成，关于中国股票的乐观情绪正在上升，BNP Paribas Asset Management 和 Invesco 等资金管理者表示。同时，摩根士丹利表示，预计 6 月份更多人工智能公司，如知识图谱和 MiniMax，将被纳入香港的基准指数和科技指数，这可能会吸引更多新资本。中国经济中疲弱部分的复苏表明，世界第二大经济体的最糟糕时期可能已经过去，该国继续受益于创新技术、人工智能的采用和强大的全球供应链。在过去两个月中，随着美国与以色列对伊朗的战争，海外投资者寻求对冲，中国资产重新受到青睐，推动股票和债券同时上涨。“温和通胀的回归对中国企业的收入和利润是个好消息，” BNP Paribas Asset 的策略师 Chi Lo 表示。“中国房地产市场困境的最糟糕时期可能已经过去。未来它将对增长的拖累变得更小。” 统计局上周表示，包括上海和北京在内的一线城市的二手房价格在 3 月份较上月上涨，而国家经济在第一季度以超过预期的 5% 的速度增长。早期数据显示，3 月份生产者价格（工业产品的一个指标）同比上涨 0.5%，结束了 41 个月的下降趋势。Lo 表示，尽管缺乏有意义的刺激措施，第一季度房地产价格的稳定显示出四年的房地产下滑可能已经走到了尽头，这与去年同期在 2024 年 9 月推出强刺激计划后短暂反弹的情况形成对比。人民币的走强也增强了对股票的信心。自美国开始对伊朗进行打击以来，人民币对美元上涨了约 0.7%，成为亚洲唯一升值的货币。“中国的股票和债券在两年来首次呈正相关，反映出避险资本流入，” Invesco 的策略师 David Chao 表示。“更强的 [人民币] 表明宏观经济和政策的稳定，应该吸引外国资本流入中国股票和债券。” 汇丰前海证券本月在一份报告中表示，由于相对隔离于油价冲击、良好的经济开局以及中国在绿色能源和高端制造业的领先地位，中国股票将保持韧性。摩根士丹利表示，预计 6 月份 AI 公司知识图谱（也称为智谱）和 MiniMax 被广泛纳入恒生指数和恒生科技指数，将进一步推动股票上涨。这些股票在每个指数中的合计权重可能达到 3% 和 7%。美国投资银行在周日的报告中表示，进一步推动科技股动能的是，这两只股票在市值达到入场门槛后，可能会通过交易所互联互通计划获得大陆投资者的交易资格。尽管预计路径将保持波动，但中国股票到年底可能会上涨 5% 至 10%，情绪将在地缘政治紧张的不确定性和互联网行业价格战结束等积极因素之间摇摆。</p>
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Outlook for China stocks brightens on capital flows, rebounding home prices

南华早报

法国巴黎银行(ADR)

景顺投资管理

MINIMAX-W

摩根士丹利

汇丰控股

汇丰

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS EA REP 1/1000 SHS NON CUM PFD O

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PFD SER Q

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 7.125% PFD E

MORGAN STANLEY NON-CUM DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER I

MORGAN STANLEY 4.875 DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NCUM PFD SR L

MORGAN STANLEY 6.5%DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000 NON CUM SER P

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 PFD SER 'A'

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH INT PFD SER 'F' FX

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NON-CUM PFD STK SER K

HSBC 5xShortSG241213

汇丰控股有限公司

由于资本流动增加和房价回升，中国股市的前景正在改善