<p>//php echo do_shortcode('[responsivevoice_button voice=&#34;US English Male&#34; buttontext=&#34;收听帖子&#34;]') ?&gt;</p>
<p>电信设备制造商和移动通信服务提供商正陷入一个无情的经济循环。随着全球半导体供应链转向满足人工智能硬件的蓬勃需求，电信供应商面临着飙升的组件成本，同时还要应对客户预算的缩减。</p>
<p>为了在这种利润压缩中生存，行业正在加速向先进软件自动化的战略转型。</p>
<h3><strong>资本支出和收入危机</strong></h3>
<p>加剧这些通货膨胀压力的是需求方的严峻现实：电信运营商正在收紧预算。预计全球电信资本支出将在 2026 年下降 2%。</p>
<p>Dell’Oro Group 的副总裁 Stefan Pongratz 告诉 EE Times，“2026 年将是电信供应商面临挑战的一年，尤其是那些更专注于无线的供应商。” 他解释了这种收缩，指出 “移动数据流量的增长速度不如 4G 时代快，而 5G 也提供了更大的容量提升。”</p>
<p>在没有爆炸性增长来证明激进支出的情况下，像 Verizon 这样的巨头已将 2026 年的资本支出减少到 160 亿至 165 亿美元，低于 2025 年的 170 亿美元。Telefonica 同样计划到 2030 年将其资本强度降低到 11%。</p>
<h3><strong>供应链冲击</strong></h3>
<p>随着预算缩减，输入成本却在飙升。向人工智能处理器重新分配的代工产能在更广泛的芯片类别中引发了严重的成本通胀。</p>
<p>对基站和消费者设备至关重要的内存模块现货价格在最近几个月飙升超过 600%，第四季度合同价格几乎上涨了 80%。在一些中低端路由器中，内存现在占总材料成本的 20% 以上，而一年前仅占 3%。</p>
<p>企业盈利能力的影响已经显而易见。瑞典基础设施提供商爱立信最近报告称，2026 年第一季度净收入骤降 79%，降至 8.87 亿瑞典克朗（9700 万美元），同时净销售额下降 10%。</p>
<p>该公司指出，北美的销售额下降是由于客户支出的短期重新分配和前一年的加速投资。虽然汇率波动和重组费用对下降有所影响，但公司特别指出组件通胀是影响盈利能力的主要因素。</p>
<p>首席执行官 Börje Ekholm 明确将利润压力与半导体紧缩联系在一起，表示 “人工智能的繁荣正在增加输入成本。” 与大型云服务提供商争夺有限的代工产能使电信供应商的谈判能力下降。</p>
<p>此外，围绕人工智能集成无线接入网络（AI-RAN）的新兴热潮并未带来即时的财务缓解。Pongratz 观察到，这些投资目前正在改变运营商支出的组合，而不是增加整体资本支出预算。</p>
<h3><strong>自动化作为战略必要性</strong></h3>
<p>面对硬件成本飙升和收入池停滞的双重威胁，供应商和运营商将软件自动化视为战略必要性。</p>
<p>“增长越慢，压力越大，” Pongratz 解释道。“因此，如果运营商的收入继续以每年约 1% 的速度增长，而移动/固定数据流量继续增长，同时网络复杂性/能源成本上升，就会有更大的自动化压力。”</p>
<p>行业正在积极向先进的自主网络转型，例如 4 级（L4）自主无线接入网络。</p>
<p>“L4 不仅仅是削减运营支出——它是在一个缓慢增长的世界中自动化的压力，” Pongratz 表示。他进一步阐述道，“如果运营商的收入继续以每年约 1% 的速度增长，而移动/固定数据流量继续增长，同时网络复杂性/能源成本上升，就会有更大的自动化压力。”</p>
<p>虽然中型运营商可能不会率先进行这些部署，但 Pongratz 指出 “运营商一致认为最终目标是实现最小人力干预的自动化。”</p>
<h3><strong>应对 6G 悖论</strong></h3>
<p>展望 6G 过渡，这一架构转型呈现出结构性悖论。将人工智能能力直接嵌入无线接入网络需要当前价格飙升的同类半导体组件。</p>
<p>由于基站在严格的成本控制和紧张的电力预算下运行，部署高功耗计算硬件在财务上难以证明合理。这种成本与功率的限制可能会减缓人工智能驱动的 6G 基础设施的推广，导致运营商谨慎权衡投资。</p>
<p>关于通用 GPU 与针对这些特定工作负载的定制硅之间的每瓦性能差距的担忧依然存在。为了抵消新硬件的成本并管理功耗，供应商正在开发软件以提高运营效率和频谱利用率。</p>
<p>虽然中型运营商不太可能立即率先进行这些部署，但 Pongratz 指出 “运营商一致认为最终目标是实现最小人力干预的自动化。” 行业预计不会突然转变，而是 “逐步进展，随后在早期采用者展示投资回报后加速采用，” 他表示。最终，电信基础设施提供商的长期生存能力取决于掌握这种自动化，为无法再通过支出实现增长的运营商提供更精简、高效的网络。</p>
<hr/>
<h5>​另见：</h5>
<p>MWC 2026 在电信公司转向人工智能时结束</p>
<p>Nvidia 在 MWC 上推进人工智能原生战略</p>
<p>在 MWC 上，爱立信详细介绍了人工智能原生 6G 时间表</p>
<p>诺基亚在人工智能和 6G 转型中押注 Nvidia</p>

西班牙电信

威瑞森

标普电信 ETF - SPDR

美国电信股指 ETF - iShares

标普全球电信股指数 ETF - iShares

电信业 ETF - Vanguard

通信服务 ETF - SPDR

<p>电信设备制造商和移动通信服务提供商正面临经济挑战，原因是组件成本上升和客户预算缩减。预计到 2026 年，全球电信资本支出将下降 2%，促使像威瑞森和西班牙电信这样的公司减少支出。半导体供应链向人工智能硬件的转变导致了显著的成本通胀，影响了盈利能力。为了应对这些压力，行业正在优先考虑软件自动化，并过渡到先进的自主网络，尽管 6G 过渡和人工智能集成的高成本带来了挑战</p>

<p>//php echo do_shortcode('[responsivevoice_button voice=&#34;US English Male&#34; buttontext=&#34;Listen to Post&#34;]') ?&gt;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>//php echo do_shortcode('[responsivevoice_button voice=&#34;US English Male&#34; buttontext=&#34;收听帖子&#34;]') ?&gt;</p>
</div><p>Telecom equipment manufacturers and cellular providers are caught in an unforgiving economic cycle. As the global semiconductor supply chain pivots to feed the booming demand for AI hardware, telecom vendors face soaring component costs while simultaneously grappling with shrinking customer budgets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电信设备制造商和移动通信服务提供商正陷入一个无情的经济循环。随着全球半导体供应链转向满足人工智能硬件的蓬勃需求，电信供应商面临着飙升的组件成本，同时还要应对客户预算的缩减。</p>
</div><p>To survive this margin squeeze, the industry is accelerating a strategic shift toward advanced software automation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了在这种利润压缩中生存，行业正在加速向先进软件自动化的战略转型。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Capex and revenue crunch</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>资本支出和收入危机</strong></h3>
</div><p>Compounding these inflationary pressures is a stark reality on the demand side: Telecom operators are tightening their belts. Global telecom capital expenditures are projected to decline by 2% in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加剧这些通货膨胀压力的是需求方的严峻现实：电信运营商正在收紧预算。预计全球电信资本支出将在 2026 年下降 2%。</p>
</div><p>Stefan Pongratz, VP at Dell’Oro Group, told EE Times that “2026 will be a challenging year for the telco suppliers, especially those with a stronger wireless focus.” Explaining the pullback, Pongratz noted that “mobile data traffic is not growing as quickly as in the 4G era, and 5G is also providing a greater capacity boost.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Dell’Oro Group 的副总裁 Stefan Pongratz 告诉 EE Times，“2026 年将是电信供应商面临挑战的一年，尤其是那些更专注于无线的供应商。” 他解释了这种收缩，指出 “移动数据流量的增长速度不如 4G 时代快，而 5G 也提供了更大的容量提升。”</p>
</div><p>Without explosive growth to justify aggressive spending, giants such as Verizon have reduced 2026 capital expenditures to between $16 billion and $16.5 billion, down from $17 billion in 2025. Telefonica similarly aims to lower its capital intensity to 11% by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在没有爆炸性增长来证明激进支出的情况下，像 Verizon 这样的巨头已将 2026 年的资本支出减少到 160 亿至 165 亿美元，低于 2025 年的 170 亿美元。Telefonica 同样计划到 2030 年将其资本强度降低到 11%。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Supply chain shock</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>供应链冲击</strong></h3>
</div><p>As budgets shrink, input costs are skyrocketing. The reallocation of foundry capacity toward AI processors has unleashed severe cost inflation across broader chip categories.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着预算缩减，输入成本却在飙升。向人工智能处理器重新分配的代工产能在更广泛的芯片类别中引发了严重的成本通胀。</p>
</div><p>Spot prices for memory modules critical to base stations and consumer premises equipment have surged by more than 600% in recent months, with fourth-quarter contract prices jumping nearly 80%. In some low- to mid-tier routers, memory now accounts for over 20% of the total bill of materials, up from just 3% a year earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对基站和消费者设备至关重要的内存模块现货价格在最近几个月飙升超过 600%，第四季度合同价格几乎上涨了 80%。在一些中低端路由器中，内存现在占总材料成本的 20% 以上，而一年前仅占 3%。</p>
</div><p>The toll on corporate profitability is already evident. Swedish infrastructure provider Ericsson recently reported a staggering 79% plunge in net income to 887 million Swedish kronor (US$97 million) for the first quarter of 2026, alongside a 10% decline in net sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>企业盈利能力的影响已经显而易见。瑞典基础设施提供商爱立信最近报告称，2026 年第一季度净收入骤降 79%，降至 8.87 亿瑞典克朗（9700 万美元），同时净销售额下降 10%。</p>
</div><p>The company noted that sales in North America declined due to a short-term reallocation of customer spend and accelerated investments in the prior year. While currency exchange rates and restructuring expenses contributed to the decline, the company specifically identified component inflation as a primary factor affecting profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司指出，北美的销售额下降是由于客户支出的短期重新分配和前一年的加速投资。虽然汇率波动和重组费用对下降有所影响，但公司特别指出组件通胀是影响盈利能力的主要因素。</p>
</div><p>CEO Börje Ekholm explicitly linked the margin pressure to the semiconductor squeeze, stating the “AI boom is increasing input costs.” Competing for limited foundry capacity against massive cloud providers leaves telecom vendors with diminished negotiating leverage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席执行官 Börje Ekholm 明确将利润压力与半导体紧缩联系在一起，表示 “人工智能的繁荣正在增加输入成本。” 与大型云服务提供商争夺有限的代工产能使电信供应商的谈判能力下降。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, the emerging buzz around AI-integrated radio access networks (AI-RAN) offers no immediate financial relief. Pongratz observed that these investments are currently changing the mix of operator spending rather than growing the overall capital expenditure budget.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，围绕人工智能集成无线接入网络（AI-RAN）的新兴热潮并未带来即时的财务缓解。Pongratz 观察到，这些投资目前正在改变运营商支出的组合，而不是增加整体资本支出预算。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Automation as the strategic imperative</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>自动化作为战略必要性</strong></h3>
</div><p>Faced with this dual threat of surging hardware costs and a stagnant revenue pool, vendors and operators are making software automation their strategic imperative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>面对硬件成本飙升和收入池停滞的双重威胁，供应商和运营商将软件自动化视为战略必要性。</p>
</div><p>“The slower the growth, the higher the pressure,” Pongratz explained. “So, if operator revenue continues to grow around 1% annually and mobile/fixed data traffic continues to grow while network complexities/energy costs are rising, there is more pressure to automate.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“增长越慢，压力越大，” Pongratz 解释道。“因此，如果运营商的收入继续以每年约 1% 的速度增长，而移动/固定数据流量继续增长，同时网络复杂性/能源成本上升，就会有更大的自动化压力。”</p>
</div><p>The industry is aggressively transitioning toward advanced autonomous networks, such as Level 4 (L4) Autonomous RAN.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>行业正在积极向先进的自主网络转型，例如 4 级（L4）自主无线接入网络。</p>
</div><p>“L4 is not just about cutting opex—it is about the pressure to automate in a slow-growth world,” Pongratz stated. He further elaborated that “if operator revenue continues to grow around 1% annually and mobile/fixed data traffic continues to grow while network complexities/energy costs are rising, there is more pressure to automate.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“L4 不仅仅是削减运营支出——它是在一个缓慢增长的世界中自动化的压力，” Pongratz 表示。他进一步阐述道，“如果运营商的收入继续以每年约 1% 的速度增长，而移动/固定数据流量继续增长，同时网络复杂性/能源成本上升，就会有更大的自动化压力。”</p>
</div><p>While mid-sized operators may not pioneer these deployments, Pongratz noted that “the operators agree the end destination is automation with minimal human intervention”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然中型运营商可能不会率先进行这些部署，但 Pongratz 指出 “运营商一致认为最终目标是实现最小人力干预的自动化。”</p>
</div><h3><strong>Navigating the 6G paradox</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>应对 6G 悖论</strong></h3>
</div><p>Looking ahead to the 6G transition, this architectural shift presents a structural paradox. Embedding AI capabilities directly into the radio access network requires the same highly sought-after semiconductor components that are currently experiencing price spikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望 6G 过渡，这一架构转型呈现出结构性悖论。将人工智能能力直接嵌入无线接入网络需要当前价格飙升的同类半导体组件。</p>
</div><p>Because cell sites operate under strict cost controls and tight power budgets, deploying power-intensive compute hardware is difficult to justify financially. This cost-power constraint could slow the rollout of AI-enabled 6G infrastructure, causing operators to weigh investments carefully.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于基站在严格的成本控制和紧张的电力预算下运行，部署高功耗计算硬件在财务上难以证明合理。这种成本与功率的限制可能会减缓人工智能驱动的 6G 基础设施的推广，导致运营商谨慎权衡投资。</p>
</div><p>Concerns persist regarding the performance-per-watt gap between general-purpose GPUs and custom silicon for these specific workloads. To offset the cost of new hardware and manage power consumption, vendors are developing software to improve operational efficiency and spectral utilization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于通用 GPU 与针对这些特定工作负载的定制硅之间的每瓦性能差距的担忧依然存在。为了抵消新硬件的成本并管理功耗，供应商正在开发软件以提高运营效率和频谱利用率。</p>
</div><p>While mid-sized operators are unlikely to pioneer these deployments immediately, Pongratz pointed out that “the operators agree the end destination is automation with minimal human intervention.” Rather than a sudden shift, the industry expects “gradual progress, followed by faster adoption once the early adopters show the ROI,” he argued. Ultimately, the long-term viability of telecom infrastructure providers hinges on mastering this automation, delivering leaner, hyper-efficient networks to operators that can no longer afford to spend their way to growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然中型运营商不太可能立即率先进行这些部署，但 Pongratz 指出 “运营商一致认为最终目标是实现最小人力干预的自动化。” 行业预计不会突然转变，而是 “逐步进展，随后在早期采用者展示投资回报后加速采用，” 他表示。最终，电信基础设施提供商的长期生存能力取决于掌握这种自动化，为无法再通过支出实现增长的运营商提供更精简、高效的网络。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h5>​See also:</h5>
<div class="lb-trans"><h5>​另见：</h5>
</div><p>MWC 2026 Concludes as Telcos Pivot to AI</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MWC 2026 在电信公司转向人工智能时结束</p>
</div><p>Nvidia Advances AI-Native Strategy at MWC</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 在 MWC 上推进人工智能原生战略</p>
</div><p>At MWC, Ericsson Details AI-Native 6G Timeline</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 MWC 上，爱立信详细介绍了人工智能原生 6G 时间表</p>
</div><p>Nokia Bets the Network on Nvidia in AI and 6G Pivot</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>诺基亚在人工智能和 6G 转型中押注 Nvidia</p>
</div>

电信行业押注自动化以应对 AI 带来的压力