<p>这一年还不到四个月，我们已经遭遇了三个通常会导致市场暴跌的事件：</p>
<ul>
<li>伊朗冲突。</li>
<li>由于人工智能引发对其商业模式的担忧，软件股受到重创。</li>
<li>私人信贷崩溃。</li>
</ul>
<p>今天我们将重点讨论第三点，因为虽然伊朗局势是一场持续的悲剧，但它终将得到解决。一旦解决，反弹的幅度可能会相当显著。</p>
<p>软件股的情况类似。随着时间的推移，我认为这些股票在人工智能竞赛中是赢家，而不是受害者。</p>
<p>但私人信贷的故事则不同，因为它实际上告诉我们的经济状况——稳定且在增长——与大多数人认为的正好相反。</p>
<p>这种脱节为股票市场的增长铺平了道路——包括我们 <em>CEF Insider</em> 投资组合中的股票型基金（它们的收益率在 9.9% 之间）。稍后我们将提到一只以每美元仅 89 美分交易的基金。</p>
<p><strong>私人股本恐慌的内幕</strong></p>
<p>让我们深入了解私人股本的情况，以便更好地理解这对我们作为投资者意味着什么。</p>
<p>这实际上与软件情况有关，基本想法是许多软件公司从私人信贷基金借款，而这些基金，顾名思义，是直接向公司提供贷款的。现在，随着人工智能似乎威胁到软件公司的利润，人们担心它们可能难以偿还这些贷款。</p>
<p>这种担忧已经引起了媒体的关注。甚至有一位 <em>纽约时报</em> 的专栏作家在 4 月 6 日的文章中将其称为 “慢动作的银行挤兑”。</p>
<p>我的看法？这有些过头了。但我们对此并不介意。因为每当媒体在这种情况下过度渲染时，随之而来的恐慌为我们创造了机会。</p>
<p><strong>数据并不支持私人信贷恐慌</strong></p>
<p>为了进一步分析，让我们看看私人信贷的违约率，根据 Fitch Ratings 最近的测量，违约率为 5.8%。我们需要注意的是，Fitch 仅在 2024 年开始进行这一测量。由于这相对较新，我们没有太多历史数据可以进行比较。</p>
<p>然而，Fitch 还测量杠杆贷款的违约率，这与私人信贷在风险特征上非常相似。最近的数据显示，杠杆贷款的违约率为 4.9%，与私人信贷相差不远。但更重要的是，这一比例较 2025 年末的 5.7% 大幅下降。</p>
<p>换句话说，企业信贷的风险正在下降，而不是上升。</p>
<p>私人信贷领域最大的参与者之一 Apollo Global Management 也指出，这些贷款的违约率在过去两年中保持相对平稳，而 “负债管理措施”（LMEs）的违约率也开始下降。这两种趋势在下面的图表中可见：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Business-Cycles.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Business-Cycles.png"/></p>
<p>LMEs 是债权人与借款人合作以避免违约或破产的一种方式。这类事件越少，市场整体的信用状况就越好。</p>
<p>而且，正如上图中的橙色线所示，LMEs 在 2025 年初达到峰值后正在逐渐减少。这是私人信贷恐慌被夸大的又一个迹象。不仅如此，整体来看，这些指标告诉我们与媒体传达的恐慌叙事正好相反：经济不仅稳定——而且正在改善。</p>
<p>当然，我们并不是为了利用这种脱节而购买私人信贷基金。许多基金结构不佳，还有一些存在复杂性和细微差别，使其被高估。</p>
<p>相反，正如我之前提到的，我们希望增加我们 <em>CEF Insider</em> 投资组合中股票部分的持有。我们特别关注那些折扣过大的基金，比如 <strong>Liberty All-Star Growth Fund (ASG)</strong>。</p>
<p>目前，ASG 的交易折扣为 11.2%——即每持有一美元的资产仅需 89 美分——远低于过去五年 3.7% 的平均折扣。</p>
<p>ASG 的定位也很好，因为它不仅持有大型股——尤其是大型科技股，如 <strong>Microsoft (MSFT)</strong>、<strong>Amazon.com (AMZN)</strong> 和 <strong>NVIDIA (NVDA)</strong>，还包括来自各个行业的中型股，如航空航天公司 <strong>Curtiss-Wright (CW)</strong> 和物业管理公司 <strong>FirstService Corp. (FSV)</strong>。</p>
<p>这是一种多样化的组合，能够很好地让我们在投资者的风险偏好恢复时受益。健康的股息——在我写这篇文章时为 8.5%——也不容小觑。</p>
<p><strong>忘掉私人信贷：这将改变一切（在 18 个月内或更短时间）</strong></p>
<p>大多数人 <em>知道</em> 人工智能将影响现代生活的方方面面。</p>
<p>但很少有人 <em>真正理解</em> 这些变化将有多深远。</p>
<p>根据领先的人工智能实验室，未来的变化将远比大多数人想象的要大。而且这些变化来得很快——我们说的是在 18 个月内。</p>
<p>我们每天都在我的 <em>CEF Insider</em> 服务中跟踪这一变化。我们将其归纳为 4 个关键驱动因素，影响近期（及长期）的股息和上涨潜力。</p>
<p>我们现在正在投资这四个领域。</p>
<p>我将这四个领域称为 “转折点”。我精心挑选了 4 只基金（平均支付 10% 的股息），它们与每个转折点紧密相关。</p>
<p>一个转折点，一只基金。四只基金的 <strong>10% 股息</strong>。</p>
<p>这四只基金现在都很便宜，因为大多数投资者对即将到来的变化毫无头绪。我们知道。</p>
<p><strong>点击这里，我将带您了解这四个关键转折点，并向您发送一份特别报告，揭示这些便宜（目前）支付 10% 股息的基金的名称和代码。</strong></p>
<h5>另见：</h5>
<p> 沃伦·巴菲特的股息股票</p>
<p> 股息增长股票：25 位贵族</p>
<p> 未来的股息贵族：紧随其后者</p>
<p>此处表达的观点和意见是作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点。</p>

<p>这篇文章讨论了私人信贷的当前状态及其对投资者的影响。尽管由于人工智能对软件公司的影响而引发了对违约的担忧，作者认为经济是稳定并在改善中的。私人信贷的违约率为 5.8%，趋势显示风险正在减少。文章重点关注股权基金，特别是 Liberty All-Star Growth Fund（ASG），该基金目前以 11.2% 的折扣交易，并提供 8.5% 的股息。作者认为这为投资者信心回归提供了一个买入机会</p>

<p>The year isn't even four months old, and we've already been hit with <em>three</em> events that would normally send markets tumbling:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一年还不到四个月，我们已经遭遇了三个通常会导致市场暴跌的事件：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>The Iran conflict.</li>
<li>The hit to software stocks, after AI raised concerns about their business model.</li>
<li>The private-credit collapse.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>伊朗冲突。</li>
<li>由于人工智能引发对其商业模式的担忧，软件股受到重创。</li>
<li>私人信贷崩溃。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>We're going to zero in on that third point today, because while the Iran situation is an ongoing tragedy, it will be resolved at some point. When it does, the relief rally will likely be significant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天我们将重点讨论第三点，因为虽然伊朗局势是一场持续的悲剧，但它终将得到解决。一旦解决，反弹的幅度可能会相当显著。</p>
</div><p>The software story is similar. Over time, I see these stocks as winners in the AI race, not victims.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>软件股的情况类似。随着时间的推移，我认为这些股票在人工智能竞赛中是赢家，而不是受害者。</p>
</div><p>But the private-credit tale is different, because what it's actually telling us about the economy--that it's stable and growing--is the <em>exact opposite</em> of what most people think it's saying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但私人信贷的故事则不同，因为它实际上告诉我们的经济状况——稳定且在增长——与大多数人认为的正好相反。</p>
</div><p>That disconnect sets up equities for growth--including the equity-focused funds in our <em>CEF Insider</em> portfolio (which yield 9.9% between them). We'll touch on one trading at a ridiculous 89 cents on the dollar in a moment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种脱节为股票市场的增长铺平了道路——包括我们 <em>CEF Insider</em> 投资组合中的股票型基金（它们的收益率在 9.9% 之间）。稍后我们将提到一只以每美元仅 89 美分交易的基金。</p>
</div><p><strong>Under the Hood of the Private-Equity Panic</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>私人股本恐慌的内幕</strong></p>
</div><p>Let's take a walk through the private-equity situation so we can get a better sense of what it means for us as investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们深入了解私人股本的情况，以便更好地理解这对我们作为投资者意味着什么。</p>
</div><p>It actually ties back to the software situation, with the basic idea being that a lot of software firms borrowed from private-credit funds, which, as the name suggests, lend money directly to companies. And now that AI appears to be threatening software firms' profits, the concern is that they could struggle to repay those loans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这实际上与软件情况有关，基本想法是许多软件公司从私人信贷基金借款，而这些基金，顾名思义，是直接向公司提供贷款的。现在，随着人工智能似乎威胁到软件公司的利润，人们担心它们可能难以偿还这些贷款。</p>
</div><p>This worry has caught on with the media. It even led a <em>New York Times</em> columnist to refer to it as &#34;a slow-motion bank run&#34; in an April 6 piece.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种担忧已经引起了媒体的关注。甚至有一位 <em>纽约时报</em> 的专栏作家在 4 月 6 日的文章中将其称为 “慢动作的银行挤兑”。</p>
</div><p>My take? That's more than a little overdone. But we're fine with that. Because whenever the media overplays its hand in a situation like this, the resulting panic sets up bargains for us.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我的看法？这有些过头了。但我们对此并不介意。因为每当媒体在这种情况下过度渲染时，随之而来的恐慌为我们创造了机会。</p>
</div><p><strong>The Data Doesn't Support the Private-Credit Panic</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>数据并不支持私人信贷恐慌</strong></p>
</div><p>To unpack this further, let's look at the default rate in private credit, which stands at 5.8%, according to a recent measure taken by Fitch Ratings. Now we do need to note that Fitch only began taking this reading 2024. Since that's quite new, we don't have much history to compare it to.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了进一步分析，让我们看看私人信贷的违约率，根据 Fitch Ratings 最近的测量，违约率为 5.8%。我们需要注意的是，Fitch 仅在 2024 年开始进行这一测量。由于这相对较新，我们没有太多历史数据可以进行比较。</p>
</div><p>However, Fitch also measures leveraged-loan defaults, which are very similar to private credit in their risk profile. The last reading saw <em>that</em> default rate at 4.9%, so not too far from private credit. But more important, it's down sharply from the 5.7% rate seen in late 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Fitch 还测量杠杆贷款的违约率，这与私人信贷在风险特征上非常相似。最近的数据显示，杠杆贷款的违约率为 4.9%，与私人信贷相差不远。但更重要的是，这一比例较 2025 年末的 5.7% 大幅下降。</p>
</div><p>In other words, the risks in corporate credit are going <em>down</em>, not up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，企业信贷的风险正在下降，而不是上升。</p>
</div><p>Apollo Global Management, one of the biggest players in private credit, has also pointed out that defaults on these loans have stayed pretty flat for two years now, and the default rates on &#34;liability management exercises, or LMEs, are starting to come down, as well. Both trends are visible in the chart below:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>私人信贷领域最大的参与者之一 Apollo Global Management 也指出，这些贷款的违约率在过去两年中保持相对平稳，而 “负债管理措施”（LMEs）的违约率也开始下降。这两种趋势在下面的图表中可见：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Business-Cycles.png" alt="" original-src="https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Business-Cycles.png"/></p>
<p>LMEs are a way for a creditor and a borrower to work together to avoid a default or bankruptcy. The fewer of these there are, the better the credit situation for the marketplace as a whole.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LMEs 是债权人与借款人合作以避免违约或破产的一种方式。这类事件越少，市场整体的信用状况就越好。</p>
</div><p>And, as the orange line in the chart above shows, LMEs are fading after peaking in early 2025. That's yet another sign the private-credit panic is overblown. Not only that, but taken as a whole, these indicators tell us the <em>opposite</em> of the panicky narrative we're getting from the media: that the economy is not only stable--it's getting better.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且，正如上图中的橙色线所示，LMEs 在 2025 年初达到峰值后正在逐渐减少。这是私人信贷恐慌被夸大的又一个迹象。不仅如此，整体来看，这些指标告诉我们与媒体传达的恐慌叙事正好相反：经济不仅稳定——而且正在改善。</p>
</div><p>Of course, we're not buying private-credit funds to take advantage of this disconnect. Many are structured badly, and some still have complications and subtleties that make them overvalued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，我们并不是为了利用这种脱节而购买私人信贷基金。许多基金结构不佳，还有一些存在复杂性和细微差别，使其被高估。</p>
</div><p>Instead, as I hinted at earlier, we're looking to add to our holdings of funds in our <em>CEF Insider</em> portfolio's equity bucket. We're especially focused on those with overly wide discounts, like the <strong>Liberty All-Star Growth Fund (ASG)</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，正如我之前提到的，我们希望增加我们 <em>CEF Insider</em> 投资组合中股票部分的持有。我们特别关注那些折扣过大的基金，比如 <strong>Liberty All-Star Growth Fund (ASG)</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Right now, ASG trades at an 11.2% discount--or about 89 cents for every dollar of its holdings--far below the 3.7% average discount it's posted over the last five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，ASG 的交易折扣为 11.2%——即每持有一美元的资产仅需 89 美分——远低于过去五年 3.7% 的平均折扣。</p>
</div><p>ASG is also well-positioned because it not only holds large cap stocks--especially large cap techs such as <strong>Microsoft (MSFT)</strong>, <strong>Amazon.com (AMZN)</strong> and <strong>NVIDIA (NVDA)</strong>, but also mid-caps from across the economy, such as aerospace firm <strong>Curtiss-Wright (CW)</strong> and property manager <strong>FirstService Corp. (FSV).</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ASG 的定位也很好，因为它不仅持有大型股——尤其是大型科技股，如 <strong>Microsoft (MSFT)</strong>、<strong>Amazon.com (AMZN)</strong> 和 <strong>NVIDIA (NVDA)</strong>，还包括来自各个行业的中型股，如航空航天公司 <strong>Curtiss-Wright (CW)</strong> 和物业管理公司 <strong>FirstService Corp. (FSV)</strong>。</p>
</div><p>That's a diversified mix that nicely positions us to benefit as investors' risk appetite picks back up. The healthy dividend--8.5% as I write this--doesn't hurt, either.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一种多样化的组合，能够很好地让我们在投资者的风险偏好恢复时受益。健康的股息——在我写这篇文章时为 8.5%——也不容小觑。</p>
</div><p><strong>Forget Private Credit: This Will Change Everything (in 18 Months or Less)</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>忘掉私人信贷：这将改变一切（在 18 个月内或更短时间）</strong></p>
</div><p>Most people <em>know</em> AI is going to affect pretty well everything about modern life.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数人 <em>知道</em> 人工智能将影响现代生活的方方面面。</p>
</div><p>But few people <em>truly get</em> just how deep these changes will run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但很少有人 <em>真正理解</em> 这些变化将有多深远。</p>
</div><p>According to leading AI labs, the coming shifts will be far bigger than most people think. And they're coming fast--we're talking within 18 months here, at the outside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据领先的人工智能实验室，未来的变化将远比大多数人想象的要大。而且这些变化来得很快——我们说的是在 18 个月内。</p>
</div><p>We're tracking this shift day by day at my <em>CEF Insider</em> service. And we've baked it down to 4 key drivers of dividends and upside in the near (and longer) term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们每天都在我的 <em>CEF Insider</em> 服务中跟踪这一变化。我们将其归纳为 4 个关键驱动因素，影响近期（及长期）的股息和上涨潜力。</p>
</div><p>We're buying into all of them <em>now</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们现在正在投资这四个领域。</p>
</div><p>I call these 4 areas &#34;pivot points.&#34; And I've hand-picked 4 funds (paying 10% dividends on average) that are <em>dialed straight into each one.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我将这四个领域称为 “转折点”。我精心挑选了 4 只基金（平均支付 10% 的股息），它们与每个转折点紧密相关。</p>
</div><p>One pivot point, one fund. And a collective <strong>10% dividend</strong> across all four.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个转折点，一只基金。四只基金的 <strong>10% 股息</strong>。</p>
</div><p>All 4 of these funds are cheap now, as most investors have no idea what's about to arrive. We do.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这四只基金现在都很便宜，因为大多数投资者对即将到来的变化毫无头绪。我们知道。</p>
</div><p><strong>Click here and I'll walk you through all 4 of these crucial pivot points--and send you a Special Report revealing the names and tickers these cheap (for now) 10%-paying funds.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>点击这里，我将带您了解这四个关键转折点，并向您发送一份特别报告，揭示这些便宜（目前）支付 10% 股息的基金的名称和代码。</strong></p>
</div><h5>Also see:</h5>
<div class="lb-trans"><h5>另见：</h5>
</div><p> Warren Buffett Dividend Stocks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p> 沃伦·巴菲特的股息股票</p>
</div><p> Dividend Growth Stocks: 25 Aristocrats</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p> 股息增长股票：25 位贵族</p>
</div><p> Future Dividend Aristocrats: Close Contenders</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p> 未来的股息贵族：紧随其后者</p>
</div><p>The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此处表达的观点和意见是作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点。</p>
</div>

This 8.5% Dividend Trades for 11% Off (Thank the Private-Credit Panic)

nasdaq

Liberty All Star Growth

Apollo Global

微软

亚马逊

英伟达

Curtiss Wright

FirstService公司

APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT INC 6.75% CONV PFD STK SER A

Apollo Global Management Pref Share APO 7.625 09/15/53

NVIDIA Corporation

这个 8.5% 股息的交易以 11% 的折扣进行（得益于私人信贷恐慌）