<p>日本银行预计将在 4 月 27 日至 28 日的会议上将利率维持在 0.75% 不变，但将发出 6 月加息的信号。由于伊朗战争引发的能源冲击，增长预测将被下调，通胀预测将大幅上调，因第二轮价格风险加剧。</p>
<p><strong>摘要</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>日本银行普遍预计将在 4 月 27-28 日的会议上将政策利率维持在 0.75% 不变</li>
<li>理事会预计将下调 2026 财年的增长预测，因为激增的燃料成本对企业利润造成压力</li>
<li>通胀预测将大幅上调，因为与石油相关的输入成本将传导至终端</li>
<li>日本银行将保持鹰派指导，并强调继续加息的决心</li>
<li>经济学家普遍认为 6 月或 7 月加息至 1.0%；近三分之二的路透社调查受访者支持在 6 月底采取行动</li>
<li>理事会中的鹰派成员警告第二轮通胀风险，因为企业越来越多地将更高的成本转嫁给消费者</li>
<li>行长上田和夫将在会议后于格林威治标准时间周二 0630 向媒体简报</li>
<li>霍尔木兹海峡的关闭目前被视为风险情景，而非日本银行的基线预测</li>
</ul>
<p>日本银行在 4 月 27 日和 28 日的政策委员会会议上普遍预计将把基准利率维持在 0.75% 不变，但此次会议的形势却并非例行公事。由于伊朗战争引发了显著的能源冲击，且通胀率已连续近四年高于日本银行的 2% 目标，政策制定者预计将利用此次会议为最早在 6 月加息铺平道路。</p>
<p>市场已经基本消除了下周会议上加息的可能性，而是将注意力转向日本银行的季度展望报告以及行长上田和夫在会议后的新闻发布会，后者定于格林威治标准时间周二 0630 举行。两者预计都将传达出明显的鹰派基调。</p>
<p>普遍观点是，日本银行这次将保持不变，但会通过沟通保持 6 月或 7 月加息的可能性。关键的观察点将是理事会更新的价格预测，这被视为政策制定者对通胀前景的关注程度的最清晰信号。</p>
<p>季度报告预计将包含两个显著的修订。首先，日本银行预计将下调 2026 财年的增长预测，该财年于 4 月开始，反映出激增的燃料成本对企业利润的拖累，以及霍尔木兹海峡有效关闭带来的干扰。其次，更重要的是，理事会可能会大幅上调其通胀预测，随着与石油相关的原材料成本上升，已经促使一些企业考虑进一步提高价格。</p>
<p>据称熟悉日本银行思路的消息人士表示，理事会可能还会调整其政策指导语言，将当前承诺 “根据经济和价格改善而加息” 调整为更好地传达其在面对战争相关通胀风险时的灵活应对准备。</p>
<p>在机构内部，日益关注的一个关键问题是第二轮效应的风险。虽然大多数理事会成员尚未将急剧的工资 - 通胀螺旋视为基本情况，但鹰派声音在呼吁保持警惕方面变得越来越响亮。人们担心，如果企业继续将更高的能源和输入成本转嫁给消费者，并且工人开始要求相应的工资增加，日本银行可能会发现自己落后于形势，被迫在未来采取更激进的紧缩措施。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，日本对当前冲击的特殊脆弱性。该国严重依赖石油进口，而霍尔木兹海峡航运的干扰严重影响了供应链和能源成本。顽固的日元疲软加剧了压力，增加了进口成本，并在最新一轮能源驱动的价格上涨之前，保持了潜在的高通胀。</p>
<p>日本银行在 1 月份设定的当前基线预测显示，2026 财年预计增长 1.0%，到 2027 年放缓至 0.8%，核心通胀分别达到 1.9% 和 2.0%。这些数字现在看起来已经过时。下周的报告还将首次包含 2028 财年的预测，为市场提供日本银行长期思维的新视角。最近的路透社调查中，约三分之二的经济学家预计政策利率将在 6 月底前达到 1.0%，方向已经明确。问题仅在于时机以及上田选择多么强烈地发出信号。</p>
<p>对于日元和日本国债市场来说，日本银行下周的鹰派维持将进一步强化日元走强的理由，并对日本收益率曲线的短端施加上行压力。近三分之二的经济学家在路透社的调查中预计到 6 月底加息至 1.0%，任何鸽派的意外都可能会迅速受到惩罚。全球市场的更大风险在于，日本银行的紧缩周期与战争驱动的能源冲击并行，可能会对已经脆弱的国际增长背景增加进一步的宏观紧缩压力。</p>

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<p>日本银行（BOJ）预计将在 4 月 27 日至 28 日的会议上维持基准利率在 0.75% 不变，同时暗示可能在 6 月加息。由于燃料成本上升，BOJ 计划下调 2026 财年的经济增长预测，并可能大幅上调通胀预期。政策制定者对企业将更高成本转嫁给消费者所带来的二次通胀风险表示担忧。预计 BOJ 的沟通将采取鹰派基调，许多经济学家预测到 6 月底将加息至 1.0%</p>

<p>BOJ set to hold at 0.75% on 27-28 April but signal June hike readiness. Growth forecasts to be cut, inflation revised up sharply as Iran war energy shock fans second-round price risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本银行预计将在 4 月 27 日至 28 日的会议上将利率维持在 0.75% 不变，但将发出 6 月加息的信号。由于伊朗战争引发的能源冲击，增长预测将被下调，通胀预测将大幅上调，因第二轮价格风险加剧。</p>
</div><p><strong>Summary</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>摘要</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>BOJ widely expected to keep its policy rate on hold at 0.75% at the April 27-28 meeting</li>
<li>Board set to cut its fiscal 2026 growth forecast as surging fuel costs weigh on corporate profits</li>
<li>Inflation forecasts to be revised sharply higher as oil-related input costs feed through</li>
<li>BOJ to retain hawkish guidance and stress resolve to continue lifting rates</li>
<li>June or July rate hike to 1.0% the consensus among economists; nearly two-thirds of Reuters poll respondents back an end-June move</li>
<li>Hawks on the board flagging second-round inflation risks as firms increasingly pass on higher costs</li>
<li>Governor Ueda to brief media at 0630 GMT Tuesday following the meeting</li>
<li>Closure of the Strait of Hormuz treated as a risk scenario for now, not the BOJ's baseline</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本银行普遍预计将在 4 月 27-28 日的会议上将政策利率维持在 0.75% 不变</li>
<li>理事会预计将下调 2026 财年的增长预测，因为激增的燃料成本对企业利润造成压力</li>
<li>通胀预测将大幅上调，因为与石油相关的输入成本将传导至终端</li>
<li>日本银行将保持鹰派指导，并强调继续加息的决心</li>
<li>经济学家普遍认为 6 月或 7 月加息至 1.0%；近三分之二的路透社调查受访者支持在 6 月底采取行动</li>
<li>理事会中的鹰派成员警告第二轮通胀风险，因为企业越来越多地将更高的成本转嫁给消费者</li>
<li>行长上田和夫将在会议后于格林威治标准时间周二 0630 向媒体简报</li>
<li>霍尔木兹海峡的关闭目前被视为风险情景，而非日本银行的基线预测</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The Bank of Japan is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75% when its policy board meets on April 27 and 28, but the meeting is shaping up to be anything but routine. With the Iran war driving a significant energy shock and inflation running above the BOJ's 2% target for close to four years, policymakers are expected to use the gathering to lay the groundwork for a rate hike as early as June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本银行在 4 月 27 日和 28 日的政策委员会会议上普遍预计将把基准利率维持在 0.75% 不变，但此次会议的形势却并非例行公事。由于伊朗战争引发了显著的能源冲击，且通胀率已连续近四年高于日本银行的 2% 目标，政策制定者预计将利用此次会议为最早在 6 月加息铺平道路。</p>
</div><p>Markets have largely priced out any chance of an increase at next week's meeting itself, shifting their attention instead to the BOJ's quarterly outlook report and the post-meeting press conference from Governor Kazuo Ueda, due at 0630 GMT Tuesday. Both are expected to carry a notably hawkish tone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场已经基本消除了下周会议上加息的可能性，而是将注意力转向日本银行的季度展望报告以及行长上田和夫在会议后的新闻发布会，后者定于格林威治标准时间周二 0630 举行。两者预计都将传达出明显的鹰派基调。</p>
</div><p>The prevailing view is that the BOJ will stand pat this time but use its communications to keep a June or July move firmly on the table. The key watch point will be the board's updated price forecasts, which are seen as the clearest signal of just how concerned policymakers have become about the inflation outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>普遍观点是，日本银行这次将保持不变，但会通过沟通保持 6 月或 7 月加息的可能性。关键的观察点将是理事会更新的价格预测，这被视为政策制定者对通胀前景的关注程度的最清晰信号。</p>
</div><p>The quarterly report is set to contain two notable revisions. First, the BOJ is expected to cut its growth forecast for fiscal 2026, which began in April, reflecting the drag on corporate profits from surging fuel costs and the disruption flowing from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Second, and more significantly for rate expectations, the board is likely to revise its inflation projections sharply higher, with rising costs for oil-related raw materials already prompting some firms to consider further price increases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>季度报告预计将包含两个显著的修订。首先，日本银行预计将下调 2026 财年的增长预测，该财年于 4 月开始，反映出激增的燃料成本对企业利润的拖累，以及霍尔木兹海峡有效关闭带来的干扰。其次，更重要的是，理事会可能会大幅上调其通胀预测，随着与石油相关的原材料成本上升，已经促使一些企业考虑进一步提高价格。</p>
</div><p>Sources said to be familiar with the BOJ's thinking suggest the board may also tweak its policy guidance language, adjusting the current pledge to raise rates &#34;in accordance with economic and price improvements&#34; to better signal its readiness to act flexibly in the face of war-related inflation risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>据称熟悉日本银行思路的消息人士表示，理事会可能还会调整其政策指导语言，将当前承诺 “根据经济和价格改善而加息” 调整为更好地传达其在面对战争相关通胀风险时的灵活应对准备。</p>
</div><p>A key concern gaining traction within the institution is the risk of second-round effects. While most board members do not yet see a sharp wage-inflation spiral as the base case, hawkish voices have grown louder in calling for vigilance. The fear is that if firms continue to pass higher energy and input costs through to consumers, and if workers begin to demand compensating wage increases in response, the BOJ could find itself well behind the curve and forced into more aggressive tightening down the track.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在机构内部，日益关注的一个关键问题是第二轮效应的风险。虽然大多数理事会成员尚未将急剧的工资 - 通胀螺旋视为基本情况，但鹰派声音在呼吁保持警惕方面变得越来越响亮。人们担心，如果企业继续将更高的能源和输入成本转嫁给消费者，并且工人开始要求相应的工资增加，日本银行可能会发现自己落后于形势，被迫在未来采取更激进的紧缩措施。</p>
</div><p>Japan's particular vulnerability to the current shock is worth noting. The country is heavily reliant on oil imports, and the disruption to Strait of Hormuz shipping has hit supply chains and energy costs hard. A stubbornly weak yen has compounded the pressure, adding to import costs and keeping underlying inflation elevated even before the latest round of energy-driven price rises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，日本对当前冲击的特殊脆弱性。该国严重依赖石油进口，而霍尔木兹海峡航运的干扰严重影响了供应链和能源成本。顽固的日元疲软加剧了压力，增加了进口成本，并在最新一轮能源驱动的价格上涨之前，保持了潜在的高通胀。</p>
</div><p>The BOJ's current baseline, set in January, projected 1.0% growth in fiscal 2026 slowing to 0.8% in 2027, with core inflation reaching 1.9% and 2.0% respectively. Those numbers are now looking dated. Next week's report will also include fiscal 2028 forecasts for the first time, giving markets a fresh read on the BOJ's longer-run thinking. With roughly two-thirds of economists in a recent Reuters poll expecting the policy rate to reach 1.0% by end-June, the direction of travel is clear. The question is simply one of timing and how forcefully Ueda chooses to signal it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本银行在 1 月份设定的当前基线预测显示，2026 财年预计增长 1.0%，到 2027 年放缓至 0.8%，核心通胀分别达到 1.9% 和 2.0%。这些数字现在看起来已经过时。下周的报告还将首次包含 2028 财年的预测，为市场提供日本银行长期思维的新视角。最近的路透社调查中，约三分之二的经济学家预计政策利率将在 6 月底前达到 1.0%，方向已经明确。问题仅在于时机以及上田选择多么强烈地发出信号。</p>
</div><p>For yen and JGB markets, a hawkish hold from the BOJ next week would reinforce the case for further yen strength and upward pressure on the short end of the Japanese yield curve. With nearly two-thirds of economists surveyed by Reuters pencilling in a rate rise to 1.0% by end-June, any dovish surprise would likely be punished swiftly. The broader risk for global markets is that a BOJ tightening cycle running alongside a war-driven energy shock adds a further macro tightening impulse to an already fragile international growth backdrop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于日元和日本国债市场来说，日本银行下周的鹰派维持将进一步强化日元走强的理由，并对日本收益率曲线的短端施加上行压力。近三分之二的经济学家在路透社的调查中预计到 6 月底加息至 1.0%，任何鸽派的意外都可能会迅速受到惩罚。全球市场的更大风险在于，日本银行的紧缩周期与战争驱动的能源冲击并行，可能会对已经脆弱的国际增长背景增加进一步的宏观紧缩压力。</p>
</div>

Preview: BOJ expected to stay on hold next week but deliver hawkish signal on June move

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预览：预计日本央行下周将维持现状，但会在六月的行动上释放鹰派信号