<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/PphO36rcjvFr4r1bd7ZXAQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04Mjg-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/5c0ed92ac97ddee68ef3dc9e5638440f?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/PphO36rcjvFr4r1bd7ZXAQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04Mjg-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/5c0ed92ac97ddee68ef3dc9e5638440f"/></p>
<p>迪拜的酒店正在遣散员工，游客海滩也空无一人，因为海湾地区的战争对其经济多元化努力造成了影响，尤其是超越石油和天然气的努力（FADEL SENNA）</p>
<p>在经历了来自伊朗的前所未有的攻击后，富裕的海湾国家现在在战争与和平之间陷入困境，谈判停滞，而重要的霍尔木兹海峡几乎关闭，这威胁到经济复苏。</p>
<p>伊朗通过封锁霍尔木兹海峡打击海湾能源出口，同时其攻击造成的能源基础设施损坏可能需要数月甚至更长时间才能修复。</p>
<p>即使脆弱的停火仍在维持，重新袭击的威胁依然笼罩着海湾地区的经济，威胁到海湾国家长期以来被誉为游客和商业安全港的多元化雄心。</p>
<p>目前尚不清楚围绕霍尔木兹海峡和铀浓缩的停滞谈判是否会达成解决海湾主要关切的协议：剥夺伊朗对这一重要水道的控制，并遏制其导弹和代理人。</p>
<p>海湾的命运越是不确定，经济复苏所需的时间就越长，分析师警告称，传统的美国盟友在战争与和平的决策中将难以影响华盛顿。</p>
<p>- 无薪假期 -</p>
<p>“如果霍尔木兹海峡被封锁很长时间，这些国家将遭受巨大的打击。而他们已经遭受了，” 海湾国际论坛研究所主任达尼亚·塔费尔（Dania Thafer）说。</p>
<p>卡塔尔已经停止了液化天然气的生产，并与科威特和巴林的能源生产商一起宣布了不可抗力。</p>
<p>在迪拜，异常轻的交通和空荡荡的旅游区讲述着这座城市仍在等待恢复正常的故事。</p>
<p>在脆弱的停火几周后，最初的震惊已经平息，阿联酋和卡塔尔的孩子们在经历了一个多月的远程学习后重返校园。</p>
<p>但由于许多家庭逃离，一些人仍在网上上课。阿联酋的学校已为安全事件制定了演练。</p>
<p>一位豪华酒店员工表示，一些员工已被放无薪假，而一家美容院的员工则表示工资也被削减。</p>
<p>根据国际货币基金组织的预测，海湾国家中有一半预计今年将出现经济收缩，而沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的增长也将放缓。</p>
<p>富裕的石油国家可以再次推动经济增长，但这些前景取决于危机持续的时间以及最终解决方案是否能为未来提供保障，国际货币基金组织的贾哈德·阿祖尔（Jihad Azour）告诉法新社。</p>
<p>- '最坏的情况' -</p>
<p>霍尔木兹海峡的封锁暴露了海湾国家对这一重要水道的依赖。</p>
<p>但即使是像阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯这样的国家，虽然它们有管道可以让部分出口绕过这一水道，但多元化努力仍面临风险。</p>
<p>稳定是吸引人才和游客的关键，同时也是实现他们成为人工智能专业和数据中心主要枢纽目标的关键。</p>
<p>“美国真的为海湾国家打开了潘多拉的盒子，” 塔费尔说。</p>
<p>如果伊朗被允许通过对霍尔木兹的控制 “无限期地对他们的经济行使否决权”，她补充道，这将是 “海湾地区极具挑战性和脆弱的局面”。</p>
<p>以色列并未参与谈判，仍可能破坏任何协议。</p>
<p>“以色列会继续在伊朗 ‘修剪草坪’ 吗？” 塔费尔说，指的是反复进行的周期性攻击策略。</p>
<p>“而伊朗会否转身关闭霍尔木兹海峡或攻击海湾国家的经济？”</p>
<p>“这是最坏的情况：海湾国家周围的不稳定局势，以及这一危机没有尽头。”</p>
<p>- '面子工程' -</p>
<p>海湾国家在战争和伊朗问题上仍然存在分歧。阿联酋频繁遭到伊朗攻击，采取了更强硬的立场，并对任何协议提出了极端要求，而沙特阿拉伯则支持调解国巴基斯坦的努力。</p>
<p>“伊朗有一个经过精心计算的战略：对海湾国家进行不同程度的打击，并对伊朗产生不同程度的威胁感知，” 塔费尔说。</p>
<p>尽管与特朗普关系密切，去年五月在海湾之行中受到英雄般的欢迎，但这些君主国发现自己在谈判中处于边缘地位，尽管它们处于攻击的前线。</p>
<p>“海湾国家在塑造特朗普政府对伊朗的行为方面面临困难，” 国际战略研究所的哈桑·阿尔哈桑（Hasan Alhasan）说。</p>
<p>“他们不希望美国对伊朗发起战争——而美国确实如此——因此毫不奇怪，他们无法让华盛顿在谈判中优先考虑他们自己的安全利益，” 因为特朗普寻求阿尔哈桑所称的 “面子工程” 退出。</p>
<p>aya/th/dc</p>

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<p>海湾国家正面临经济挑战，因为美国与伊朗的危机持续，霍尔木兹海峡的封锁影响了能源出口和旅游业。尽管脆弱的停火协议存在，但该地区的经济复苏和多元化努力仍然充满不确定性。像卡塔尔这样的国家已暂停液化天然气生产，许多海湾国家预计今年经济将出现收缩。分析师警告称，长期的不稳定可能会阻碍海湾国家吸引人才和投资的雄心，而美国在谈判中的角色仍不确定，使海湾国家对伊朗的影响更加脆弱</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/PphO36rcjvFr4r1bd7ZXAQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04Mjg-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/5c0ed92ac97ddee68ef3dc9e5638440f" alt="" original-src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/PphO36rcjvFr4r1bd7ZXAQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04Mjg-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/5c0ed92ac97ddee68ef3dc9e5638440f"/></p>
<p>Dubai hotels are sending home staff and tourist beaches have emptied as the war in the Gulf takes its toll on the region's efforts to diversify its economy beyond oil and gas (FADEL SENNA)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迪拜的酒店正在遣散员工，游客海滩也空无一人，因为海湾地区的战争对其经济多元化努力造成了影响，尤其是超越石油和天然气的努力（FADEL SENNA）</p>
</div><p>After weathering unprecedented attacks from Iran, the wealthy Gulf states are now stuck between war and peace as talks stall and the vital Strait of Hormuz remains all but closed -- threatening economic recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经历了来自伊朗的前所未有的攻击后，富裕的海湾国家现在在战争与和平之间陷入困境，谈判停滞，而重要的霍尔木兹海峡几乎关闭，这威胁到经济复苏。</p>
</div><p>Iran has hit Gulf energy exports with its Strait of Hormuz blockade, while its attacks have caused damage to energy infrastructure that could take months or more to repair.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗通过封锁霍尔木兹海峡打击海湾能源出口，同时其攻击造成的能源基础设施损坏可能需要数月甚至更长时间才能修复。</p>
</div><p>Even as a shaky ceasefire holds, the threat of renewed strikes looms over the region's economy beyond oil, threatening diversification ambitions in the Gulf, long touted as a safe haven for visitors and business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使脆弱的停火仍在维持，重新袭击的威胁依然笼罩着海湾地区的经济，威胁到海湾国家长期以来被誉为游客和商业安全港的多元化雄心。</p>
</div><p>It is unclear whether stalled talks, so far centred around the Strait of Hormuz and uranium enrichment, will produce a deal addressing the Gulf's main concerns: stripping Iran of its control over the key waterway and keeping its missiles and proxies in check.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前尚不清楚围绕霍尔木兹海峡和铀浓缩的停滞谈判是否会达成解决海湾主要关切的协议：剥夺伊朗对这一重要水道的控制，并遏制其导弹和代理人。</p>
</div><p>The longer the Gulf's fate remains uncertain, the longer economic recovery will take, and analysts warn that the traditional US allies will struggle to influence Washington's decisions when it comes to war and peace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>海湾的命运越是不确定，经济复苏所需的时间就越长，分析师警告称，传统的美国盟友在战争与和平的决策中将难以影响华盛顿。</p>
</div><p>- Unpaid leave -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 无薪假期 -</p>
</div><p>&#34;If this goes on for quite a long time with the Strait of Hormuz blocked, some of those states are going to suffer huge blows. And they already have,&#34; said Dania Thafer, director of the Gulf International Forum research institute.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果霍尔木兹海峡被封锁很长时间，这些国家将遭受巨大的打击。而他们已经遭受了，” 海湾国际论坛研究所主任达尼亚·塔费尔（Dania Thafer）说。</p>
</div><p>Qatar has already stopped liquefied natural gas production and, along with energy producers in Kuwait and Bahrain, declared force majeure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡塔尔已经停止了液化天然气的生产，并与科威特和巴林的能源生产商一起宣布了不可抗力。</p>
</div><p>In Dubai, unusually light traffic and deserted tourist areas tell the tale of a city still waiting for a return to normality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在迪拜，异常轻的交通和空荡荡的旅游区讲述着这座城市仍在等待恢复正常的故事。</p>
</div><p>Weeks into a fragile truce, the initial shock has subsided, with children returning to school in the UAE and Qatar after more than a month of distance learning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在脆弱的停火几周后，最初的震惊已经平息，阿联酋和卡塔尔的孩子们在经历了一个多月的远程学习后重返校园。</p>
</div><p>But some are still following classes online after many families fled. UAE schools have put drills in place for security incidents.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但由于许多家庭逃离，一些人仍在网上上课。阿联酋的学校已为安全事件制定了演练。</p>
</div><p>One luxury hotel employee said some staff have put on unpaid leave, while an employee at a beauty salon said salaries had also been slashed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一位豪华酒店员工表示，一些员工已被放无薪假，而一家美容院的员工则表示工资也被削减。</p>
</div><p>Half of the Gulf countries are expecting a contraction this year, while slowed growth is projected for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, according to the International Monetary Fund.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据国际货币基金组织的预测，海湾国家中有一半预计今年将出现经济收缩，而沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的增长也将放缓。</p>
</div><p>Big, oil-rich countries with deep pockets can boost their economies again, but these prospects hinge on how long the crisis lasts and whether a final resolution can provide assurances for the future, Jihad Azour of the International Monetary Fund told AFP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>富裕的石油国家可以再次推动经济增长，但这些前景取决于危机持续的时间以及最终解决方案是否能为未来提供保障，国际货币基金组织的贾哈德·阿祖尔（Jihad Azour）告诉法新社。</p>
</div><p>- 'Worse case scenario' -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- '最坏的情况' -</p>
</div><p>The Hormuz blockade has exposed most of the Gulf's dependance on the key waterway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍尔木兹海峡的封锁暴露了海湾国家对这一重要水道的依赖。</p>
</div><p>But even for countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which have access to pipelines that allow some of their exports to bypass the waterway, diversification efforts are at risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但即使是像阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯这样的国家，虽然它们有管道可以让部分出口绕过这一水道，但多元化努力仍面临风险。</p>
</div><p>Stability is key to attract talent and tourists, but also achieve their goal of becoming major hubs for artificial intelligence expertise and data centres.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>稳定是吸引人才和游客的关键，同时也是实现他们成为人工智能专业和数据中心主要枢纽目标的关键。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The US has really opened a Pandora's box for the Gulf states,&#34; Thafer said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“美国真的为海湾国家打开了潘多拉的盒子，” 塔费尔说。</p>
</div><p>If Iran is allowed to maintain &#34;a veto over their economies indefinitely&#34; through its control of Hormuz, she added, that would be &#34;an extremely challenging and vulnerable situation for the Gulf&#34;.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果伊朗被允许通过对霍尔木兹的控制 “无限期地对他们的经济行使否决权”，她补充道，这将是 “海湾地区极具挑战性和脆弱的局面”。</p>
</div><p>Israel is not at the negotiating table and could still upend any deal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以色列并未参与谈判，仍可能破坏任何协议。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Is Israel going to continue to 'mow the lawn' in Iran?&#34; Thafer said, referring to the strategy of repeated, periodic attacks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“以色列会继续在伊朗 ‘修剪草坪’ 吗？” 塔费尔说，指的是反复进行的周期性攻击策略。</p>
</div><p>&#34;And is Iran going to turn around and close the Strait of Hormuz or attack the Gulf states' economies?.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“而伊朗会否转身关闭霍尔木兹海峡或攻击海湾国家的经济？”</p>
</div><p>&#34;This is the worst case scenario: instability ensuing around the Gulf states and no end to this crisis.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这是最坏的情况：海湾国家周围的不稳定局势，以及这一危机没有尽头。”</p>
</div><p>- 'Face-saving exit' -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- '面子工程' -</p>
</div><p>Gulf states remain divided over the war and on Iran. The UAE, which Iran has struck most frequently, has had a more hawkish stance and expressed maximalist demands for any deal, while Saudi Arabia has supported mediator Pakistan's efforts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>海湾国家在战争和伊朗问题上仍然存在分歧。阿联酋频繁遭到伊朗攻击，采取了更强硬的立场，并对任何协议提出了极端要求，而沙特阿拉伯则支持调解国巴基斯坦的努力。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Iran had a calibrated strategy: striking Gulf states to different degrees and creating varying degree of threat perceptions towards Iran,&#34; according to Thafer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“伊朗有一个经过精心计算的战略：对海湾国家进行不同程度的打击，并对伊朗产生不同程度的威胁感知，” 塔费尔说。</p>
</div><p>And despite close ties to Trump, who was given a hero's welcome last May during his Gulf tour, the monarchies have found themselves on the sidelines of the talks despite being in the firing line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管与特朗普关系密切，去年五月在海湾之行中受到英雄般的欢迎，但这些君主国发现自己在谈判中处于边缘地位，尽管它们处于攻击的前线。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The Gulf states have struggled to shape the Trump administration's behaviour toward Iran,&#34; said Hasan Alhasan of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“海湾国家在塑造特朗普政府对伊朗的行为方面面临困难，” 国际战略研究所的哈桑·阿尔哈桑（Hasan Alhasan）说。</p>
</div><p>&#34;They did not want the US to initiate war against Iran -– which it did -– and it's no surprise that they are unable to get Washington to prioritise their own security interests in the negotiations,&#34; as Trump seeks what he Alhasan called a &#34;face-saving exit&#34;.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“他们不希望美国对伊朗发起战争——而美国确实如此——因此毫不奇怪，他们无法让华盛顿在谈判中优先考虑他们自己的安全利益，” 因为特朗普寻求阿尔哈桑所称的 “面子工程” 退出。</p>
</div><p>aya/th/dc</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>aya/th/dc</p>
</div>

随着美伊危机的持续，海湾国家陷入了僵局