<p>中国出口商开始在广泛的商品中提高价格，因为伊朗战争推动了与石油相关的输入成本，这一变化可能预示着全球通胀压力的上升。根据贸易数据监测机构编制并彭博社分析的数据，超过十个类别的家居用品在三月份录得同比价格上涨，结束了多年的下降趋势，这一趋势曾帮助全球抑制通胀。面临塑料、合成纤维和化学品成本上升的出口商已开始将这些涨幅转嫁给消费者，像注射器这样的商品价格上涨幅度高达 20%，而与聚酯相关的服装类别则录得低至中等的单位数增长。</p>
<p>供应链的压力似乎正在迅速加大，因为供应商在三月份频繁提高输入价格，反映出能源冲击如何迅速渗透到生产中。制造商还面临金属和半导体成本上升的压力，进一步增加了利润空间的压力，尤其是在家电领域。这一动态标志着近年来的逆转，当时中国出口价格的下降估计使发达经济体的通胀降低了 0.3% 到 0.5%，帮助抑制了美国、英国和欧洲等市场的价格增长。彭博经济学现在估计，2026 年通胀超过 3% 的情况可能在这些地区重新出现，受到能源成本冲击的影响。</p>
<p>尽管由于典型的贸易滞后，消费者尚未完全感受到影响，但这一趋势表明，如果冲突持续，未来几个月通胀压力可能会加大。高盛估计，油价上涨 10% 通常会在第一年内使中国出口价格上升约 50 个基点，峰值效应发生在初始冲击后的四到五个月。一些出口商已经开始调整，包括新订单价格上涨约 7% 的报告，而关键原材料如聚氯乙烯在三月份的峰值水平上涨了高达 80%。与此同时，中国的竞争压力和疲弱的国内需求可能限制价格上涨的幅度，这意味着即使更广泛的通缩趋势开始减弱，中国也可能吸收部分全球通胀冲击。</p>

中国 MSCI ETF - iShares

中概股 ETF - PowerShares

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

<p>中国出口商因伊朗战争导致的石油相关原材料成本上升而提高了各种商品的价格，这预示着全球通胀压力的潜在增加。三月份，超过十种家居用品的价格同比上涨，扭转了此前帮助抑制通胀的多年下降趋势。像注射器这样的商品价格上涨幅度高达 20%。塑料、金属和半导体的成本上升给制造商带来了压力。彭博经济学警告称，受到这些能源成本冲击的影响，发达经济体的通胀率可能在 2026 年回升至 3% 以上</p>

<p>Chinese exporters are beginning to lift prices across a wide range of goods as the Iran war drives up oil-linked input costs, a shift that could signal rising global inflation pressures. Data compiled by Trade Data Monitor and analyzed by Bloomberg shows more than a dozen categories of household goods recorded year-on-year price increases in March, snapping a multi-year decline that had helped restrain inflation globally. Exporters facing higher costs in plastics, synthetic fibers, and chemicals have started passing those increases through, with items like syringes seeing price increases of as much as 20%, while apparel categories tied to polyester posted low- to mid-single digit gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国出口商开始在广泛的商品中提高价格，因为伊朗战争推动了与石油相关的输入成本，这一变化可能预示着全球通胀压力的上升。根据贸易数据监测机构编制并彭博社分析的数据，超过十个类别的家居用品在三月份录得同比价格上涨，结束了多年的下降趋势，这一趋势曾帮助全球抑制通胀。面临塑料、合成纤维和化学品成本上升的出口商已开始将这些涨幅转嫁给消费者，像注射器这样的商品价格上涨幅度高达 20%，而与聚酯相关的服装类别则录得低至中等的单位数增长。</p>
</div><p>The pressure appears to be building quickly across supply chains, as suppliers raised input prices frequently during March, reflecting how rapidly the energy shock is filtering through production. Manufacturers are also dealing with higher costs for metals and semiconductors, adding another layer of margin pressure, particularly in home appliances. This dynamic marks a reversal from recent years, when falling Chinese export prices shaved an estimated 0.3% to 0.5% off inflation in advanced economies, helping contain price growth in markets such as the US, the UK, and Europe. Bloomberg Economics now estimates that inflation above 3% in 2026 could be back in play across these regions following the energy cost shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供应链的压力似乎正在迅速加大，因为供应商在三月份频繁提高输入价格，反映出能源冲击如何迅速渗透到生产中。制造商还面临金属和半导体成本上升的压力，进一步增加了利润空间的压力，尤其是在家电领域。这一动态标志着近年来的逆转，当时中国出口价格的下降估计使发达经济体的通胀降低了 0.3% 到 0.5%，帮助抑制了美国、英国和欧洲等市场的价格增长。彭博经济学现在估计，2026 年通胀超过 3% 的情况可能在这些地区重新出现，受到能源成本冲击的影响。</p>
</div><p>While the full impact has not yet reached consumers due to typical trade lags, the trajectory suggests inflationary pressure could build in the coming months if the conflict persists. Goldman Sachs  estimates that a 10% increase in oil prices typically lifts Chinese export prices by around 50 basis points over the first year, with peak effects occurring four to five months after the initial shock. Some exporters have already started adjusting, including reported price increases of around 7% on new orders, while key inputs such as polyvinyl chloride surged as much as 80% at peak levels in March. At the same time, competitive pressures and weak domestic demand in China could limit how much prices rise, meaning the country may absorb part of the global inflation shock even as the broader disinflationary trend begins to fade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管由于典型的贸易滞后，消费者尚未完全感受到影响，但这一趋势表明，如果冲突持续，未来几个月通胀压力可能会加大。高盛估计，油价上涨 10% 通常会在第一年内使中国出口价格上升约 50 个基点，峰值效应发生在初始冲击后的四到五个月。一些出口商已经开始调整，包括新订单价格上涨约 7% 的报告，而关键原材料如聚氯乙烯在三月份的峰值水平上涨了高达 80%。与此同时，中国的竞争压力和疲弱的国内需求可能限制价格上涨的幅度，这意味着即使更广泛的通缩趋势开始减弱，中国也可能吸收部分全球通胀冲击。</p>
</div>

Chinese Export Prices Rise Up To 20% As Iran War Lifts Costs

- 中国出口商因伊朗战争推高了商品价格，影响通胀。  
- 家居用品和注射器等价格显著上涨，反映供应链压力加大。  
- 高盛预计油价上涨将使中国出口价格上升，通胀压力可能再次显现。

由于伊朗战争推高了成本，中国的出口价格上涨了多达 20%