<p>全球债券市场正在朝着截然不同的方向急剧变化，投资者开始注意到这一点。曾经看似更加稳定的利率背景现在正在转变，因为美国与伊朗之间日益加深的僵局推动主要经济体的收益率上升。自周一以来，两年期美国国债收益率已上升 12 个基点，达到 3.83%；而英国两年期收益率则飙升 30 个基点，达到 4.42%，创下一个月以来最大的周涨幅。这一变化似乎与能源市场的压力重新加大有关，布伦特原油正朝着自冲突初期以来最大的周涨幅迈进，这引发了人们对通胀可能比之前预期的更长时间保持高位的担忧。</p>
<p>这种变化直接影响了利率预期。最近曾质疑中央银行是否会继续采取激进紧缩措施的交易员们，现在正在重新调整头寸，欧洲央行的加息预期从 50 个基点上升至 67 个基点，而英格兰银行的预期则从本周早些时候的 30 个基点上升至 63 个基点。在美国，掉期市场现在发出信号，表明美联储可能会在年底前保持政策稳定，这与本周早些时候大约 50% 的降息概率形成了显著对比。美国和英国的强劲数据，加上地缘政治的不确定性，正在强化对降息的更加谨慎的态度。</p>
<p>投资者正在相应调整。Jupiter Asset Management 的 Ariel Bezalel 表示，他正在获利了结，减少对利率和信用的敞口，同时持有更多现金以应对潜在的波动，指出对 3 月份债券市场剧烈波动可能重现的担忧。同时，BlackRock 的 Wei Li 强调，政策制定者面临着一个具有挑战性的环境，因为在冲突开始之前，通胀压力已经很高。即使在紧张局势缓解的情况下，她也表示市场可能不会回到之前预期多次降息的背景，特别是在下周美国、欧洲、日本、英国和加拿大即将迎来一系列中央银行决策的情况下。</p>

UTWO

美国中期国债 ETF - iShares

美国短期国债指数 ETF - iShares

7-10 年美国国债 ETF - iShares

XTWO

<p>全球债券收益率因美国与伊朗之间紧张局势升级而急剧上升，美国两年期国债收益率达到 3.83%，英国收益率为 4.42%。这一变化与能源市场压力增加有关，引发了通胀担忧。交易员们正在调整利率预期，预计欧洲央行和英格兰银行将会加息。投资者变得谨慎，一些人减少了对利率和信用的敞口。分析师指出，即使紧张局势缓解，市场也可能不会恢复到之前对多次降息的预期，尤其是在即将到来的央行决策面前</p>

<p>Global bond markets are moving sharply in a different direction, and investors are starting to take notice. What had looked like a more stable rates backdrop is now shifting, as a deepening stalemate between the US and Iran pushes yields higher across major economies. Two-year US Treasury yields have climbed 12 basis points since Monday to 3.83%, while UK two-year yields have surged 30 basis points to 4.42%, marking the largest weekly increases in a month. The move appears tied to renewed pressure in energy markets, with Brent crude on track for its biggest weekly gain since the early phase of the conflict, raising concerns that inflation could stay elevated longer than previously expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球债券市场正在朝着截然不同的方向急剧变化，投资者开始注意到这一点。曾经看似更加稳定的利率背景现在正在转变，因为美国与伊朗之间日益加深的僵局推动主要经济体的收益率上升。自周一以来，两年期美国国债收益率已上升 12 个基点，达到 3.83%；而英国两年期收益率则飙升 30 个基点，达到 4.42%，创下一个月以来最大的周涨幅。这一变化似乎与能源市场的压力重新加大有关，布伦特原油正朝着自冲突初期以来最大的周涨幅迈进，这引发了人们对通胀可能比之前预期的更长时间保持高位的担忧。</p>
</div><p>That shift is feeding directly into rate expectations. Traders who had recently questioned whether central banks would follow through on aggressive tightening are now repositioning, with pricing for the European Central Bank rising to 67 basis points of increases this year from 50 basis points, while expectations for the Bank of England have climbed to 63 basis points from 30 basis points earlier in the week. In the US, swaps markets are now signaling the Federal Reserve is likely to hold policy steady through year-end, a notable change from earlier in the week when there was a roughly 50% chance of a quarter-point cut. Stronger data in both the US and UK, alongside geopolitical uncertainty, is reinforcing a more cautious stance toward rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种变化直接影响了利率预期。最近曾质疑中央银行是否会继续采取激进紧缩措施的交易员们，现在正在重新调整头寸，欧洲央行的加息预期从 50 个基点上升至 67 个基点，而英格兰银行的预期则从本周早些时候的 30 个基点上升至 63 个基点。在美国，掉期市场现在发出信号，表明美联储可能会在年底前保持政策稳定，这与本周早些时候大约 50% 的降息概率形成了显著对比。美国和英国的强劲数据，加上地缘政治的不确定性，正在强化对降息的更加谨慎的态度。</p>
</div><p>Investors are adjusting accordingly. Ariel Bezalel at Jupiter Asset Management said he is taking profits and reducing exposure to both rates and credit, while holding more cash as a buffer against potential volatility, noting concerns that the sharp bond-market swings seen in March could return. At the same time, BlackRock's  Wei Li highlighted that policymakers are facing a challenging environment, as inflation pressures were already elevated before the conflict began. Even in a scenario where tensions ease, she suggested markets may not return to the earlier backdrop where multiple rate cuts were expected, particularly with a heavy slate of central bank decisions approaching next week across the US, Europe, Japan, the UK, and Canada.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者正在相应调整。Jupiter Asset Management 的 Ariel Bezalel 表示，他正在获利了结，减少对利率和信用的敞口，同时持有更多现金以应对潜在的波动，指出对 3 月份债券市场剧烈波动可能重现的担忧。同时，BlackRock 的 Wei Li 强调，政策制定者面临着一个具有挑战性的环境，因为在冲突开始之前，通胀压力已经很高。即使在紧张局势缓解的情况下，她也表示市场可能不会回到之前预期多次降息的背景，特别是在下周美国、欧洲、日本、英国和加拿大即将迎来一系列中央银行决策的情况下。</p>
</div>

Global Bond Yields Jump As US Two-Year Hits 3.83% Amid Iran Tensions

GuruFocus

US Treasury 2 Year Note ETF

BondBloxx Bloomberg 2 Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF

Jupiter Fund Management plc

贝莱德

BlackRock Tech and Private Equity Term Trust

BLACKROCK MULTI-SECTOR INCOME TR COM USD0.001(S/R 09/09/2025) WI

Blackrock Enhanced Div Achievers Trust

BlackRock Science and Tech Term Trust

BlackRock Multi-Sector Income Trust

由于伊朗紧张局势，美国两年期国债收益率达到 3.83%，全球债券收益率随之跳涨