<p>印度卢比对主要全球货币的汇率已降至十多年来的最低水平，受到原油价格上涨和持续的外资流出的影响。</p>
<p>印度储备银行最新公报的数据表明，卢比的 40 种货币实际有效汇率（REER）降至 92.72。</p>
<p>REER 调整了通货膨胀差异，广泛用于评估货币的竞争力。</p>
<p>最新数据显示，卢比的汇率显著低于其长期平均水平 98.25，表明该货币与历史水平相比被严重低估。</p>
<h2>1. 伊朗战争压力下油价飙升影响卢比</h2>
<p>由于伊朗战争导致的原油价格急剧上涨，成为压制卢比的关键因素。</p>
<p>油价上涨增加了印度的进口账单，导致对美元的需求加大，给本地货币施加下行压力。</p>
<p>分析师指出，随着进口商加大采购以确保供应，油相关的美元需求已加剧。</p>
<h2>2. 外资流出加剧货币疲软</h2>
<p>大量外资流出进一步削弱了卢比。</p>
<p>在全球风险厌恶加剧和对美元需求增加的背景下，投资者纷纷撤出印度股市。</p>
<p>正如路透社报道所提到的，BofA 全球研究的分析师表示，由于 “为确保供应而增加的油品进口导致的美元需求，以及在风险厌恶加剧的情况下大规模的股市流出”，卢比可能会继续承压。</p>
<h2>3. 低通胀拖累实际汇率</h2>
<p>印度相对温和的通胀也促成了 REER 的下降。</p>
<p>较低的通胀降低了相对价格水平的优势，拉低了货币的贸易加权估值。</p>
<p>这一因素加剧了卢比今年迄今约 4.5% 的下跌，路透社的报道中提到。</p>
<h2>4. 自 2024 年底以来的急剧贬值趋势</h2>
<p>3 月份的 REER 读数标志着自 2024 年底以来近 15 点的急剧下降，成为近年来实际贬值最剧烈的时期之一。</p>
<p>卢比在 3 月底也创下每美元 95.21 的历史低点，突显了该货币持续承压的情况。</p>
<h2>5. 更广泛的贸易加权指标显示更深的低估</h2>
<p>一个较窄的六种货币 REER 指标显示出更陡峭的下降。</p>
<p>该指数在 3 月份降至 89.61，为 2015 年 4 月以来的最低水平，远低于其近 100 的长期平均水平。</p>
<p>根据贸易部的数据，2024-2025 财年印度的六大贸易伙伴包括美国、中国、阿联酋、俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯和新加坡。</p>
<h2>尽管低估，复苏前景有限</h2>
<p>尽管卢比看起来被低估，分析师认为短期内反弹的空间有限。</p>
<p>持续的美元需求和全球不确定性预计将继续给该货币施加压力。</p>
<p>与此同时，较弱的 REER 提高了出口竞争力，使印度资产对外国投资者更便宜，尽管这降低了他们在外币计价的现有投资价值。</p>
<p>印度储备银行在其 2026-27 财年的预测中假设美元汇率为 94。</p>
<p>从这个水平贬值 5% 可能会使通胀增加约 40 个基点，增长增加 25 个基点，按照 RBI 的估计。</p>
<p>文章《是什么导致印度卢比近年来的急剧下跌？5 个关键原因》首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

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<p>印度卢比已跌至十多年来的最低水平，主要受到原油价格上涨和大量外资流出的影响。印度储备银行的实际有效汇率（REER）降至 92.72，表明该货币相较于其长期平均值 98.25 被低估。主要因素包括石油进口成本增加、外资大量撤出、通胀温和以及自 2024 年底以来的急剧贬值趋势。尽管看似被低估，分析师预测由于持续的美元需求和全球不确定性，复苏空间有限</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/image-1777014364.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/image-1777014364.png"/></p>
<p>The Indian rupee’s valuation against major global currencies has dropped to its lowest level in more than a decade, weighed down by rising crude oil prices and persistent foreign outflows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度卢比对主要全球货币的汇率已降至十多年来的最低水平，受到原油价格上涨和持续的外资流出的影响。</p>
</div><p>Data from the Reserve Bank of India’s latest bulletin showed that the rupee’s 40-currency real effective exchange rate (REER) fell to 92.72.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度储备银行最新公报的数据表明，卢比的 40 种货币实际有效汇率（REER）降至 92.72。</p>
</div><p>The REER adjusts for inflation differentials and is widely used to assess a currency’s competitiveness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>REER 调整了通货膨胀差异，广泛用于评估货币的竞争力。</p>
</div><p>The latest reading places the rupee significantly below its long-term average of 98.25, indicating that the currency is deeply undervalued compared to historical levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新数据显示，卢比的汇率显著低于其长期平均水平 98.25，表明该货币与历史水平相比被严重低估。</p>
</div><h2>1. Oil price surge amid Iran war pressures rupee</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 伊朗战争压力下油价飙升影响卢比</h2>
</div><p>A sharp rise in crude oil prices, driven by the Iran war, has emerged as a key factor weighing on the rupee.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于伊朗战争导致的原油价格急剧上涨，成为压制卢比的关键因素。</p>
</div><p>Higher oil prices increase India’s import bill, leading to stronger demand for dollars and putting downward pressure on the local currency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价上涨增加了印度的进口账单，导致对美元的需求加大，给本地货币施加下行压力。</p>
</div><p>Analysts noted that oil-related dollar demand has intensified as importers ramp up purchases to secure supplies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师指出，随着进口商加大采购以确保供应，油相关的美元需求已加剧。</p>
</div><h2>2. Foreign portfolio outflows add to currency weakness</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 外资流出加剧货币疲软</h2>
</div><p>Heavy foreign portfolio outflows have further weakened the rupee.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大量外资流出进一步削弱了卢比。</p>
</div><p>Investors have pulled money out of Indian equities amid heightened global risk aversion and increasing demand for the US dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在全球风险厌恶加剧和对美元需求增加的背景下，投资者纷纷撤出印度股市。</p>
</div><p>As mentioned in a Reuters report, Analysts at BofA Global Research said the rupee is likely to remain under pressure due to “dollar demand from ramp-up in oil imports to secure supplies and by sizeable equity outflows amid heightened risk aversion.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如路透社报道所提到的，BofA 全球研究的分析师表示，由于 “为确保供应而增加的油品进口导致的美元需求，以及在风险厌恶加剧的情况下大规模的股市流出”，卢比可能会继续承压。</p>
</div><h2>3. Weak inflation drags real exchange rate lower</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 低通胀拖累实际汇率</h2>
</div><p>Relatively subdued inflation in India has also contributed to the fall in REER.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度相对温和的通胀也促成了 REER 的下降。</p>
</div><p>Lower inflation reduces the relative price level advantage, pulling down the trade-weighted valuation of the currency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>较低的通胀降低了相对价格水平的优势，拉低了货币的贸易加权估值。</p>
</div><p>This factor has compounded the impact of the rupee’s approximately 4.5% decline so far this year, as cited in a Reuters report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一因素加剧了卢比今年迄今约 4.5% 的下跌，路透社的报道中提到。</p>
</div><h2>4. Sharp depreciation trend since late 2024</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. 自 2024 年底以来的急剧贬值趋势</h2>
</div><p>The March REER reading caps a steep decline of nearly 15 points from late-2024 highs, marking one of the sharpest episodes of real depreciation in recent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3 月份的 REER 读数标志着自 2024 年底以来近 15 点的急剧下降，成为近年来实际贬值最剧烈的时期之一。</p>
</div><p>The rupee also hit a record low of 95.21 per dollar in late March, highlighting the sustained pressure on the currency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卢比在 3 月底也创下每美元 95.21 的历史低点，突显了该货币持续承压的情况。</p>
</div><h2>5. Broader trade-weighted measures signal deeper undervaluation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>5. 更广泛的贸易加权指标显示更深的低估</h2>
</div><p>A narrower six-currency REER gauge shows an even steeper decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个较窄的六种货币 REER 指标显示出更陡峭的下降。</p>
</div><p>The index dropped to 89.61 in March, its lowest level since records began in April 2015, and well below its long-term average of nearly 100.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该指数在 3 月份降至 89.61，为 2015 年 4 月以来的最低水平，远低于其近 100 的长期平均水平。</p>
</div><p>India’s six largest trading partners during the 2024–2025 fiscal year included the US, China, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore, according to trade ministry data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据贸易部的数据，2024-2025 财年印度的六大贸易伙伴包括美国、中国、阿联酋、俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯和新加坡。</p>
</div><h2>Limited recovery outlook despite undervaluation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>尽管低估，复苏前景有限</h2>
</div><p>Despite the rupee appearing undervalued, analysts see limited scope for a near-term rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管卢比看起来被低估，分析师认为短期内反弹的空间有限。</p>
</div><p>Persistent dollar demand and global uncertainties are expected to keep the currency under pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持续的美元需求和全球不确定性预计将继续给该货币施加压力。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, a weaker REER improves export competitiveness and makes Indian assets cheaper for foreign investors, though it reduces the value of their existing investments in foreign currency terms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，较弱的 REER 提高了出口竞争力，使印度资产对外国投资者更便宜，尽管这降低了他们在外币计价的现有投资价值。</p>
</div><p>The Reserve Bank of India has assumed an exchange rate of 94 per dollar in its projections for fiscal year 2026–27.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度储备银行在其 2026-27 财年的预测中假设美元汇率为 94。</p>
</div><p>A 5% depreciation from this level could add about 40 basis points to inflation and 25 basis points to growth, as per RBI estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从这个水平贬值 5% 可能会使通胀增加约 40 个基点，增长增加 25 个基点，按照 RBI 的估计。</p>
</div><p>The post What triggered the Indian rupee’s sharpest fall in years? 5 key reasons appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>文章《是什么导致印度卢比近年来的急剧下跌？5 个关键原因》首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
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What triggered the Indian rupee’s sharpest fall in years? 5 key reasons

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是什么导致印度卢比出现近年来最剧烈的下跌？5 个关键原因