<p>[东京] 日本银行（BOJ）预计将在周二（4 月 28 日）维持利率不变，这给行长植田和男带来了沟通挑战，因为疲软的日元徘徊在过去干预的水平附近。</p>
<p>就在几周前，市场和经济学家们都在押注植田和他的董事会会继续推进正常化进程，并在周二的为期两天的会议结束时再次加息。但随着美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对伊朗的战争导致油价飙升，这些押注逐渐消散，市场现在仅预计有 7% 的可能性会采取行动，许多经济学家转而预测将在 6 月加息。</p>
<p>假设没有意外情况发生，尽管这一点无法排除，因为知情人士表示最终决定将在最后一刻做出，焦点将迅速转向植田的政策信号。声明通常在东京时间中午左右发布，植田的新闻发布会通常在下午 3:30 开始。</p>
<p>“关键在于日本银行将多么强烈地传达他们继续加息以遏制日元贬值的决心，” 前日本银行国际部负责人永井茂人表示。</p>
<p>周一早上，日元对美元的汇率徘徊在 159.50 附近，距离当局在 2024 年最后一次干预以支持日元的水平不远。在周四的彭博新声音活动上，财政大臣片山聪警告称，官员们与美国同行保持全天候密切联系，因为东京对施压日元的投机行为保持高度警惕。</p>
<p>上周，知情人士告诉彭博社，日本银行倾向于将政策利率维持在 0.75% 不变，考虑到伊朗战争带来的不确定性。官员们仍然承诺迟早会提高借贷成本，他们表示。</p>
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<p>但不同的观点表明，董事会九名成员之间可能会出现更大的分歧，他们在 3 月的最后一次会议上以 8-1 的投票结果决定维持政策设置不变。</p>
<p>与伊朗冲突相关的波动性加剧了对能源成本和供应链韧性的担忧，使政策制定者在下一次加息时难以做出决策。</p>
<p>“日本银行的沟通方式有其局限性，” 野村证券首席策略师松泽中表示。“在下次会议前，日本当局是否能够遏制日元贬值和债券收益率曲线陡峭化仍不明朗。”</p>
<p>另见</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/dedd4d1c4f9ca845ecb3a8d25a3166d52f3b6f40a1db1989d8abaab3db4935b3/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/dedd4d1c4f9ca845ecb3a8d25a3166d52f3b6f40a1db1989d8abaab3db4935b3/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw"/></p>
<h3>随着对日本银行加息的押注减弱，日本政府债券反弹</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/35df5648f85513ef3d3af221a2b38e8f1bb661697d288b97f8aa844358b21167/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/35df5648f85513ef3d3af221a2b38e8f1bb661697d288b97f8aa844358b21167/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw"/></p>
<h3>日本银行行长避免暗示 4 月加息，打破鹰派市场押注</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/89dceaeed445968fb2fbb471792cf646e50cc32f87bb87bb19695a75d7f7684f/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/89dceaeed445968fb2fbb471792cf646e50cc32f87bb87bb19695a75d7f7684f/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw"/></p>
<h3>国际货币基金组织表示，日本银行能够应对来自伊朗战争的通胀冲击</h3>
<p>上周，日元的三个月期权隐含波动率降至两年低点，因为对潜在干预的猜测限制了下行风险。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/418ae52c16aadfd7360360b8aff151ed23f1780079f123ea365a610b94fc34dc?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/418ae52c16aadfd7360360b8aff151ed23f1780079f123ea365a610b94fc34dc"/></p>
<p>植田和男本周将力求避免重蹈覆辙。照片来源：彭博社</p>
<p>市场参与者对植田在 2024 年 4 月的新闻发布会记忆犹新，当时当局维持政策不变。行长对日元的评论被视为鸽派，导致该货币大幅贬值，最终在几天后促使干预。植田本周将力求避免重蹈覆辙。</p>
<p>美国联邦储备委员会和欧洲中央银行本周也将召开会议，预计将维持现状。日本银行在维持货币正常化方面的压力部分源于与同行之间的持续差距，以及考虑到通胀的实际利率仍然深度负值。</p>
<p>与政策声明一起发布的更新季度经济展望应有助于为持续的鹰派立场提供依据。知情人士告诉彭博社，日本银行董事会可能会考虑将本月开始的财政年度的价格展望大幅上调，最新预测为 1.9%。</p>
<p>“考虑到企业日益积极的定价行为和日元贬值压力加剧，我们认为价格上涨的风险大于对增长的打击，” SBI 新生银行高级经济学家森翔太表示。</p>
<p>数据显示，日本 3 月份的通胀在五个月内首次加速。另一项指标显示，服务生产者价格较上月上涨 1.25%，是约 36 年来的最大增幅，排除销售税上调的时期。</p>
<p>与此同时，消费者信心降至自新冠疫情以来的最大跌幅，预示着需求即将受到打击。分析师的中位估计是日本银行将今年的增长预测从 1% 下调至 0.8%。</p>
<p>“观察经济展望如何修订将很重要，以评估政策制定者如何看待因油价上涨而对增长带来的下行风险，以及这些风险对潜在通胀的影响，” 冈三证券首席债券策略师长谷川直也表示。</p>
<p>植田本月进入其行长任期的第四年。在此期间，他已 dismantled yield curve control，结束负利率，并将政策利率提高至三十年来的最高水平。</p>
<p>“他只剩下两年了，” 前日本银行首席经济学家关根年隆说。“他已经做了必要的事情，并且在需要时会继续这样做。” 彭博社</p>
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<p>日本银行（BOJ）预计将在即将召开的会议上维持利率在 0.75% 的水平，原因是日元贬值和由于地缘政治紧张局势导致的油价上涨带来的挑战。行长植田和男面临沟通挑战，因为市场预期从潜在的加息转向关注政策信号。日元贬值和通胀压力使得日本银行的决策更加复杂，分析师预测价格前景可能会增加。消费者信心显著下降，引发了对未来需求的担忧</p>

<p>[TOKYO] The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Tuesday (Apr 28), setting up a communication challenge for governor Kazuo Ueda as the foundering yen hovers near levels that have prompted past interventions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[东京] 日本银行（BOJ）预计将在周二（4 月 28 日）维持利率不变，这给行长植田和男带来了沟通挑战，因为疲软的日元徘徊在过去干预的水平附近。</p>
</div><p>Just weeks ago, markets and economists were betting Ueda and his board would press ahead with their normalisation efforts and deliver another hike at the end of their two-day meeting on Tuesday. Those bets dissipated as US President Donald Trump’s war on Iran sent oil prices surging, with markets now pricing just a 7 per cent chance of a move, and many economists switching to a June increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在几周前，市场和经济学家们都在押注植田和他的董事会会继续推进正常化进程，并在周二的为期两天的会议结束时再次加息。但随着美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对伊朗的战争导致油价飙升，这些押注逐渐消散，市场现在仅预计有 7% 的可能性会采取行动，许多经济学家转而预测将在 6 月加息。</p>
</div><p>Assuming there’s no shock, which cannot be ruled out as sources familiar with deliberations have said the final decision will be made at the last possible moment, focus will rapidly shift to Ueda’s policy signals. The statement usually lands around noon in Tokyo, with Ueda’s press conference typically starting at 3.30 pm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假设没有意外情况发生，尽管这一点无法排除，因为知情人士表示最终决定将在最后一刻做出，焦点将迅速转向植田的政策信号。声明通常在东京时间中午左右发布，植田的新闻发布会通常在下午 3:30 开始。</p>
</div><p>“The key thing is how strongly the BOJ will communicate their determination to continue rate hikes to curb the yen’s depreciation,” said Shigeto Nagai, former head of the BOJ’s international department.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“关键在于日本银行将多么强烈地传达他们继续加息以遏制日元贬值的决心，” 前日本银行国际部负责人永井茂人表示。</p>
</div><p>The currency was hovering around 159.50 per US dollar early Monday in Tokyo, not far from the level where authorities last intervened to support the yen in 2024. At a Bloomberg New Voices event in Tokyo on Thursday, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that officials are in close contact around the clock with their US counterparts as Tokyo remains on high alert over speculative moves that are weighing on the yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周一早上，日元对美元的汇率徘徊在 159.50 附近，距离当局在 2024 年最后一次干预以支持日元的水平不远。在周四的彭博新声音活动上，财政大臣片山聪警告称，官员们与美国同行保持全天候密切联系，因为东京对施压日元的投机行为保持高度警惕。</p>
</div><p>Last week, sources familiar with planning told Bloomberg that the BOJ was leaning towards keeping its policy rate unchanged at 0.75 per cent, given uncertainties stemming from the war in Iran. Officials are still committed to raising borrowing costs sooner or later, they said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，知情人士告诉彭博社，日本银行倾向于将政策利率维持在 0.75% 不变，考虑到伊朗战争带来的不确定性。官员们仍然承诺迟早会提高借贷成本，他们表示。</p>
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</div><p>But differing viewpoints suggest the possibility of a widening divergence among the board’s nine members, who voted 8-1 to hold policy settings steady at the last meeting in March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但不同的观点表明，董事会九名成员之间可能会出现更大的分歧，他们在 3 月的最后一次会议上以 8-1 的投票结果决定维持政策设置不变。</p>
</div><p>Volatility tied to the Iran conflict has heightened uncertainty around energy costs and supply-chain durability, making it difficult for policymakers to pull the trigger on their next hike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与伊朗冲突相关的波动性加剧了对能源成本和供应链韧性的担忧，使政策制定者在下一次加息时难以做出决策。</p>
</div><p>“There are limits to how hawkish the BOJ’s communication can be,” said Naka Matsuzawa, chief strategist at Nomura Securities. “It is unclear whether Japanese authorities will be able to contain yen depreciation and bond curve steepening in the run-up to the next meeting in June.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“日本银行的沟通方式有其局限性，” 野村证券首席策略师松泽中表示。“在下次会议前，日本当局是否能够遏制日元贬值和债券收益率曲线陡峭化仍不明朗。”</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另见</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/dedd4d1c4f9ca845ecb3a8d25a3166d52f3b6f40a1db1989d8abaab3db4935b3/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/dedd4d1c4f9ca845ecb3a8d25a3166d52f3b6f40a1db1989d8abaab3db4935b3?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Japanese government bonds rally as bets for BOJ rate hike fade</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>随着对日本银行加息的押注减弱，日本政府债券反弹</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/35df5648f85513ef3d3af221a2b38e8f1bb661697d288b97f8aa844358b21167/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/35df5648f85513ef3d3af221a2b38e8f1bb661697d288b97f8aa844358b21167?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>BOJ chief avoids hints of April rate hike, shattering hawkish market bets</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>日本银行行长避免暗示 4 月加息，打破鹰派市场押注</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/89dceaeed445968fb2fbb471792cf646e50cc32f87bb87bb19695a75d7f7684f/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/89dceaeed445968fb2fbb471792cf646e50cc32f87bb87bb19695a75d7f7684f?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>IMF says Bank of Japan can see through inflationary shock from Iran war</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>国际货币基金组织表示，日本银行能够应对来自伊朗战争的通胀冲击</h3>
</div><p>The yen’s three-month option-implied volatility fell to a two-year low last week as speculation of potential intervention capped downside risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，日元的三个月期权隐含波动率降至两年低点，因为对潜在干预的猜测限制了下行风险。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/418ae52c16aadfd7360360b8aff151ed23f1780079f123ea365a610b94fc34dc" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/418ae52c16aadfd7360360b8aff151ed23f1780079f123ea365a610b94fc34dc"/></p>
<p>Kazuo Ueda will be keen to avoid repeating that experience this week. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>植田和男本周将力求避免重蹈覆辙。照片来源：彭博社</p>
</div><p>Memories remain fresh among market participants of Ueda’s press conference in April 2024, after authorities held settings steady. The governor’s comments on the yen were taken as dovish, sparking a rout in the currency that ultimately prompted intervention days later. Ueda will be keen to avoid repeating that experience this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场参与者对植田在 2024 年 4 月的新闻发布会记忆犹新，当时当局维持政策不变。行长对日元的评论被视为鸽派，导致该货币大幅贬值，最终在几天后促使干预。植田本周将力求避免重蹈覆辙。</p>
</div><p>The US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank also meet this week and are widely expected to stand pat. The BOJ’s pressure to sustain monetary normalisation is driven in part by the ongoing gap with its peers and the fact that real rates that factor in inflation remain deeply negative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国联邦储备委员会和欧洲中央银行本周也将召开会议，预计将维持现状。日本银行在维持货币正常化方面的压力部分源于与同行之间的持续差距，以及考虑到通胀的实际利率仍然深度负值。</p>
</div><p>An updated quarterly economic outlook to be released with the policy statement should help justify an ongoing hawkish stance. The BOJ board is likely to consider a sharp increase in its price outlook for the fiscal year that started this month from the latest projection of 1.9 per cent, sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg earlier this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与政策声明一起发布的更新季度经济展望应有助于为持续的鹰派立场提供依据。知情人士告诉彭博社，日本银行董事会可能会考虑将本月开始的财政年度的价格展望大幅上调，最新预测为 1.9%。</p>
</div><p>“We see the risk of upward pressure on prices as greater than the hit to growth, given firms’ increasingly proactive pricing behaviour and the intensifying depreciation pressure on the yen,” said Shotaro Mori, senior economist at SBI Shinsei Bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“考虑到企业日益积极的定价行为和日元贬值压力加剧，我们认为价格上涨的风险大于对增长的打击，” SBI 新生银行高级经济学家森翔太表示。</p>
</div><p>Japan’s inflation quickened in March for the first time in five months, data on Friday showed. A separate gauge showed service producer prices rose 1.25 per cent from a month earlier, the most in about 36 years, excluding periods when there was a hike in the sales tax.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据显示，日本 3 月份的通胀在五个月内首次加速。另一项指标显示，服务生产者价格较上月上涨 1.25%，是约 36 年来的最大增幅，排除销售税上调的时期。</p>
</div><p>Meantime, sentiment among consumers has tumbled by the most since the Covid-19 pandemic, foreshadowing a looming blow to demand. The median estimate of analysts is for the BOJ to cut its growth projection for this year to 0.8 per cent from 1 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，消费者信心降至自新冠疫情以来的最大跌幅，预示着需求即将受到打击。分析师的中位估计是日本银行将今年的增长预测从 1% 下调至 0.8%。</p>
</div><p>“It will be important to see how the economic outlook is revised to assess how policymakers view the downside risks to growth from higher oil prices and, in turn, their impact on underlying inflation,” said Naoya Hasegawa, chief bond strategist at Okasan Securities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“观察经济展望如何修订将很重要，以评估政策制定者如何看待因油价上涨而对增长带来的下行风险，以及这些风险对潜在通胀的影响，” 冈三证券首席债券策略师长谷川直也表示。</p>
</div><p>Ueda entered the fourth year of his governorship this month. In that period, he’s dismantled yield curve control, ended negative interest rates, and lifted policy rates to their highest in three decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>植田本月进入其行长任期的第四年。在此期间，他已 dismantled yield curve control，结束负利率，并将政策利率提高至三十年来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>“He has only two years left,” said Toshitaka Sekine, a former BOJ chief economist. “He has done what’s needed and he will keep doing it when it’s necessary.” BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“他只剩下两年了，” 前日本银行首席经济学家关根年隆说。“他已经做了必要的事情，并且在需要时会继续这样做。” 彭博社</p>
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BOJ seen holding rates in messaging risk for Ueda as yen teeters

- 日本银行预计将在 4 月 28 日维持利率不变，面临沟通挑战。  
- 随着油价飙升，市场对加息预期下降，预计 6 月加息的可能性更大。  
- 日元贬值压力加剧，可能影响政策制定者决策与经济展望。

由于日元处于不稳定状态，日本央行在信息传递中被认为会维持利率不变，这对植田和男来说构成了风险