<p>中国大型企业的工业利润在 3 月份同比增长 15.8%，是自去年 9 月以来的最快增速，第一季度利润同比增长 15.5%，超过之前的 15.2%。</p>
<p>早前：</p>
<ul>
<li>中国进口预计将首次超过出口，受 AI 芯片激增影响</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>摘要</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>中国大型企业的工业利润在 3 月份同比增长 15.8%，是自 2025 年 9 月以来的最快增速</li>
<li>1 月至 3 月的工业利润同比增长 15.5%，高于之前的 15.2%</li>
<li>数据涵盖年收入超过 2000 万元的工业企业</li>
<li>强劲的利润增长受到与 AI 相关的制造需求、出口势头和改善的定价能力推动</li>
<li>尽管受到伊朗战争能源冲击和全球贸易不确定性的逆风影响，结果依然乐观</li>
<li>中国第一季度工业产出同比增长 7.7%，支撑了利润反弹</li>
<li>虽然国内消费疲软仍然是结构性拖累，但出口需求和资本投资正在填补这一空缺</li>
</ul>
<p>中国工业部门在 3 月份实现了七个月以来最强劲的利润增长，大型企业的年同比增长 15.8%，超出预期，进一步证明了在重大外部压力下国家制造经济的韧性。</p>
<p>中国国家统计局发布的数据表明，年收入超过 2000 万元的工业企业在 3 月份的利润同比增长 15.8%，是自去年 9 月以来最快的增长速度。整体第一季度的利润同比增长 15.5%，较之前的 15.2% 有所加快，考虑到伊朗战争及相关能源冲击造成的干扰，这一结果被视为普遍令人鼓舞。</p>
<p>中国工业利润的强劲表现反映了几种重叠的力量，这些力量在最近几个月汇聚在一起，支持了制造业。最主要的因素是全球人工智能投资热潮，推动了对芯片、先进制造设备以及更广泛的供应链的需求，这些都为 AI 基础设施的发展提供了支持。中国已成为这一供应链的核心节点，第一季度的贸易数据显示，仅在 3 月份，集成电路的进口同比激增 54%，而与 AI 相关商品的出口也持续增长。</p>
<p>更广泛的出口需求提供了强劲的助力。中国的总出口在 2026 年第一季度同比增长 15%，这一结果让经济学家感到惊讶，并推动了全年贸易预测的显著上调。工业企业直接受益于这一外部需求，包括电动车、太阳能电池板、工业机械和电子产品等行业均报告了强劲的订单。</p>
<p>定价动态也在利润反弹中发挥了作用。在经历了多年的通缩压力，压缩了工业部门的利润率后，生产者价格开始稳定，并在某些类别中恢复，受到全球商品价格上涨和国内资本投资回升的支持。这一变化使企业能够在不单靠销量增长的情况下重建盈利能力。</p>
<p>考虑到该部门面临的逆风，这一结果尤其引人注目。伊朗战争爆发后霍尔木兹海峡的部分关闭扰乱了全球能源流动，推高了能源密集型行业的投入成本。经济学家曾警告称，这一冲击可能会对中国的工业产出和利润率产生显著影响，但第一季度的数据表明，迄今为止影响的程度比预期的要小。中国多样化的能源供应基础和战略石油储备提供了一定程度的保护，而中国在绿色能源制造中的主导地位使其能够从全球对替代化石燃料的需求激增中受益。</p>
<p>国内消费仍然是中国经济形势中的薄弱环节。家庭支出尚未出现令人信服的复苏，导致工业部门依赖出口和固定资产投资来维持其增长势头。政府推出了一系列渐进的刺激措施，但经济学家普遍认为，消费模式的更为决定性的转变尚未出现。然而，目前的利润数据表明，中国的工业引擎正在以更快的速度运转，为更广泛的经济增长提供了基础。</p>
<p>---</p>
<p>中国工业利润增长的加速是风险资产和商品需求的积极信号，表明尽管面临伊朗战争和全球贸易不确定性的逆风，制造业仍然表现得比许多人预期的要好。3 月份 15.8% 的年同比数据是自去年 9 月以来的最高水平，表明大型工业企业的定价能力和销量正在改善，与本月早些时候看到的强劲贸易数据一致。年初至今的数据从 15.2% 改善至 15.5% 进一步支持了中国工业经济正在获得动力而非失去动力的观点。对于能源和金属市场而言，中国工业活动的增强支撑了需求预期。对于股市而言，这一数据减少了对外部冲击导致企业盈利急剧恶化的短期担忧，尽管疲弱的国内消费仍然是复苏可持续性的结构性风险。</p>

上证指数

恒生中国企业

盈富基金

恒生富时中国50

上证180价值ETF

<p>中国工业利润在 3 月份同比激增 15.8%，创下自去年 9 月以来的最快增长。第一季度，利润增长 15.5%，主要受益于与人工智能相关的制造业强劲需求和出口势头。尽管面临伊朗战争和全球贸易不确定性带来的挑战，工业部门表现出韧性，电动车和电子产品的贡献显著。然而，疲弱的国内消费仍然是一个令人担忧的问题。积极的利润数据表明，中国的工业经济正在获得动力，支持能源和金属市场的需求预期，并缓解了股市的担忧</p>

<p>China's industrial profits at large firms rose 15.8% year-on-year in March, the fastest pace since September, with Q1 profits up 15.5%, beating the prior 15.2% reading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国大型企业的工业利润在 3 月份同比增长 15.8%，是自去年 9 月以来的最快增速，第一季度利润同比增长 15.5%，超过之前的 15.2%。</p>
</div><p>Earlier:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>早前：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>China imports set to overtake exports for first time since 2021 on AI chip surge</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>中国进口预计将首次超过出口，受 AI 芯片激增影响</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Summary</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>摘要</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>China's industrial profits at large firms rose 15.8% year-on-year in March, fastest growth since September 2025</li>
<li>January to March industrial profits rose 15.5% year-on-year, up from 15.2% in the prior reading</li>
<li>Data covers industrial firms with annual revenue above 20 million yuan</li>
<li>Strong profit growth driven by AI-related manufacturing demand, export momentum and improving pricing power</li>
<li>Results come despite headwinds from the Iran war energy shock and global trade uncertainty</li>
<li>China's industrial output rose 7.7% year-on-year in Q1 2026, underpinning the profit rebound</li>
<li>Weak domestic consumption remains a structural drag but export demand and capital investment are filling the gap</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>中国大型企业的工业利润在 3 月份同比增长 15.8%，是自 2025 年 9 月以来的最快增速</li>
<li>1 月至 3 月的工业利润同比增长 15.5%，高于之前的 15.2%</li>
<li>数据涵盖年收入超过 2000 万元的工业企业</li>
<li>强劲的利润增长受到与 AI 相关的制造需求、出口势头和改善的定价能力推动</li>
<li>尽管受到伊朗战争能源冲击和全球贸易不确定性的逆风影响，结果依然乐观</li>
<li>中国第一季度工业产出同比增长 7.7%，支撑了利润反弹</li>
<li>虽然国内消费疲软仍然是结构性拖累，但出口需求和资本投资正在填补这一空缺</li>
</ul>
</div><p>China's industrial sector delivered its strongest profit growth in seven months in March, with large firms posting a 15.8% year-on-year gain that exceeded expectations and reinforced the resilience of the country's manufacturing economy in the face of significant external pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国工业部门在 3 月份实现了七个月以来最强劲的利润增长，大型企业的年同比增长 15.8%，超出预期，进一步证明了在重大外部压力下国家制造经济的韧性。</p>
</div><p>The data, released by China's National Bureau of Statistics, showed that profits at industrial enterprises with annual revenue above 20 million yuan rose 15.8% in March from a year earlier, the fastest pace of growth since September last year. For the first quarter as a whole, profits were up 15.5% year-on-year, a modest acceleration from the prior reading of 15.2% and a result that will be seen as broadly encouraging given the scale of disruption caused by the Iran war and the associated energy shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国国家统计局发布的数据表明，年收入超过 2000 万元的工业企业在 3 月份的利润同比增长 15.8%，是自去年 9 月以来最快的增长速度。整体第一季度的利润同比增长 15.5%，较之前的 15.2% 有所加快，考虑到伊朗战争及相关能源冲击造成的干扰，这一结果被视为普遍令人鼓舞。</p>
</div><p>The strength of China's industrial profit picture reflects several overlapping forces that have converged to support the manufacturing sector in recent months. Chief among them is the global artificial intelligence investment boom, which has driven surging demand for chips, advanced manufacturing equipment and the broader supply chain that feeds into AI infrastructure development. China has emerged as a central node in that supply chain, with first-quarter trade data showing imports of integrated circuits soaring 54% year-on-year in March alone, while exports of AI-related goods have continued to climb.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国工业利润的强劲表现反映了几种重叠的力量，这些力量在最近几个月汇聚在一起，支持了制造业。最主要的因素是全球人工智能投资热潮，推动了对芯片、先进制造设备以及更广泛的供应链的需求，这些都为 AI 基础设施的发展提供了支持。中国已成为这一供应链的核心节点，第一季度的贸易数据显示，仅在 3 月份，集成电路的进口同比激增 54%，而与 AI 相关商品的出口也持续增长。</p>
</div><p>Export demand more broadly has provided a powerful tailwind. China's total exports rose 15% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, a result that has surprised economists to the upside and driven sharp upward revisions to full-year trade forecasts. Industrial firms have benefited directly from that external demand, with sectors including electric vehicles, solar panels, industrial machinery and electronics all reporting strong order books.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更广泛的出口需求提供了强劲的助力。中国的总出口在 2026 年第一季度同比增长 15%，这一结果让经济学家感到惊讶，并推动了全年贸易预测的显著上调。工业企业直接受益于这一外部需求，包括电动车、太阳能电池板、工业机械和电子产品等行业均报告了强劲的订单。</p>
</div><p>Pricing dynamics have also played a role in the profit rebound. After years of deflationary pressure that squeezed margins across the industrial sector, producer prices have begun to stabilise and in some categories recover, supported by higher global commodity prices and a pickup in domestic capital investment. That shift has allowed firms to rebuild profitability without relying solely on volume growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>定价动态也在利润反弹中发挥了作用。在经历了多年的通缩压力，压缩了工业部门的利润率后，生产者价格开始稳定，并在某些类别中恢复，受到全球商品价格上涨和国内资本投资回升的支持。这一变化使企业能够在不单靠销量增长的情况下重建盈利能力。</p>
</div><p>The results are particularly notable given the headwinds the sector has been navigating. The partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the outbreak of the Iran war has disrupted global energy flows and pushed up input costs for energy-intensive industries. Economists had warned that the shock could weigh meaningfully on Chinese industrial output and margins, but the first-quarter data suggests the impact has so far been more contained than feared. China's diversified energy supply base and strategic petroleum reserves have provided a degree of insulation, while the country's dominant position in green energy manufacturing has allowed it to benefit from the surge in global demand for alternatives to fossil fuels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到该部门面临的逆风，这一结果尤其引人注目。伊朗战争爆发后霍尔木兹海峡的部分关闭扰乱了全球能源流动，推高了能源密集型行业的投入成本。经济学家曾警告称，这一冲击可能会对中国的工业产出和利润率产生显著影响，但第一季度的数据表明，迄今为止影响的程度比预期的要小。中国多样化的能源供应基础和战略石油储备提供了一定程度的保护，而中国在绿色能源制造中的主导地位使其能够从全球对替代化石燃料的需求激增中受益。</p>
</div><p>Domestic consumption remains the weak link in China's economic picture. Household spending has yet to mount a convincing recovery, leaving the industrial sector reliant on exports and fixed asset investment to sustain its momentum. Authorities have rolled out a series of incremental stimulus measures, but economists broadly agree that a more decisive shift in consumption patterns has yet to materialise. For now, however, the profit data suggests China's industrial engine is running at a pace that the broader economy can build on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国内消费仍然是中国经济形势中的薄弱环节。家庭支出尚未出现令人信服的复苏，导致工业部门依赖出口和固定资产投资来维持其增长势头。政府推出了一系列渐进的刺激措施，但经济学家普遍认为，消费模式的更为决定性的转变尚未出现。然而，目前的利润数据表明，中国的工业引擎正在以更快的速度运转，为更广泛的经济增长提供了基础。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div><p>The acceleration in Chinese industrial profit growth is a positive signal for risk assets and commodity demand, suggesting the manufacturing sector is holding up better than many had feared despite the headwinds from the Iran war and global trade uncertainty. The 15.8% year-on-year March reading, the strongest since September last year, points to improving pricing power and volumes at large industrial firms, consistent with the strong trade data seen earlier in the month. The sequential improvement in the year-to-date figure from 15.2% to 15.5% adds further weight to the view that China's industrial economy is gaining momentum rather than losing it. For energy and metals markets, stronger Chinese industrial activity supports demand expectations. For equity markets, the data reduces near-term concerns about a sharp deterioration in corporate earnings driven by external shocks, though weak domestic consumption remains a structural risk to the sustainability of the recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国工业利润增长的加速是风险资产和商品需求的积极信号，表明尽管面临伊朗战争和全球贸易不确定性的逆风，制造业仍然表现得比许多人预期的要好。3 月份 15.8% 的年同比数据是自去年 9 月以来的最高水平，表明大型工业企业的定价能力和销量正在改善，与本月早些时候看到的强劲贸易数据一致。年初至今的数据从 15.2% 改善至 15.5% 进一步支持了中国工业经济正在获得动力而非失去动力的观点。对于能源和金属市场而言，中国工业活动的增强支撑了需求预期。对于股市而言，这一数据减少了对外部冲击导致企业盈利急剧恶化的短期担忧，尽管疲弱的国内消费仍然是复苏可持续性的结构性风险。</p>
</div>

China industrial profits surge at fastest pace since September in boost for economy

- 中国大型企业 3 月份工业利润同比增长 15.8%，为去年 9 月以来最快增速。  
- 第一季度利润同比增长 15.5%，超出预期，受 AI 芯片激增影响。  
- 出口需求与资本投资推动利润反弹，国内消费疲软仍是挑战。

中国工业利润自九月以来以最快速度激增，为经济带来提振