<p>ING 表示，日本 3 月份的消费者物价指数（CPI）超出预期，通胀将进一步加速，这使得日本央行在 4 月 28 日的利率决策变得复杂，并且尽管市场普遍预期将维持利率不变，但仍然保留了 4 月加息的可能性。</p>
<p>早前的预览观点相互矛盾：</p>
<ul>
<li>预览：预计日本央行下周将维持利率不变，但会对 6 月的举措发出鹰派信号</li>
<li>日本央行可能会更加鹰派，以减轻日元的压力 - 野村证券</li>
</ul>
<p>请注意，日本央行行长植田和男将不会亲自出席会议。由于健康原因，植田将通过电话参加。</p>
<p><strong>摘要</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>日本 3 月份的整体 CPI 同比上涨 1.5%，高于市场共识的 1.4% 和 2 月份的 1.3%</li>
<li>不包括新鲜食品的核心 CPI 在五个月内首次加速至 1.8%，超出 1.5% 的共识</li>
<li>排除政府能源补贴和社会福利影响后，通胀水平远高于 2%</li>
<li>ING 预计东京 CPI 在 4 月份将同比上涨至 1.7%，预计整体和核心通胀在 5 月份将回升至 2% 以上</li>
<li>春季工资谈判的增长超过 5%，中小企业的增幅也相当稳固</li>
<li>ING 预计日本央行 2026 财年的通胀预测将从 1.9% 大幅上调至 2.4%，2027 财年从 2.0% 上调至 2.2%</li>
<li>预计 2026 财年的 GDP 前景将从 1.0% 下调至 0.7%，但仍高于潜在水平</li>
<li>市场普遍预计日本央行将在 4 月 28 日维持利率不变；ING 则维持非共识的加息可能性</li>
<li>如果日本央行维持利率不变，ING 预计沟通将强烈暗示 6 月加息</li>
<li>ING 预计到 2026 年底将加息 50 个基点</li>
</ul>
<p>日本的通胀水平高于预期，并在经济中广泛蔓延，使得日本央行在周二的利率决策前面临越来越不舒服的局面，并保持了市场普遍忽视的意外加息的可能性。</p>
<p>根据 ING 的数据，3 月份的消费者价格整体通胀同比上涨 1.5%，高于 1.4% 的市场共识和 2 月份的 1.3%。不包括新鲜食品的核心通胀在五个月内首次加速至 1.8%，远高于 1.5% 的共识。按月计算，经过季节调整的指数上涨 0.4%，商品价格上涨 0.6%，服务价格上涨 0.2%，这表明价格压力正在变得越来越广泛。</p>
<p>政府的干预掩盖了问题的真实规模。能源补贴和社会福利项目使得汽油、公用事业和教育的价格下降，降幅在 4.8% 到 5.5% 之间。去除这些政策影响后，通胀水平远高于 2%，ING 表示，这一情况在未来几个月将变得更加明显。该行预计东京 CPI 在 4 月份将同比上涨至 1.7%，并且整体和核心指标将在 5 月份回升至 2% 以上。</p>
<p>几种结构性因素正在放大通胀前景。今年的春季工资谈判的增长超过 5%，中小企业也出现了稳固的增长。面临日元贬值和全球能源价格上涨的企业预计将把这些成本转嫁给消费者，特别是在 4 月份，日本财政年度开始时，零售价格通常会进行调整。生产者和进口价格也大幅上涨，进一步增加了管道压力。</p>
<p>劳动力市场对日本央行几乎没有缓解作用。ING 预计失业率将小幅下降至 2.5%，月度活动数据将在上个月下降后反弹。该行认为，能源冲击迄今对生产没有产生显著的负面影响，使得尽管通胀加速，增长前景仍然相对稳健。</p>
<p>所有这些因素使得周二的利率决策变得相当复杂。市场在当地报道暗示日本央行在 4 月份不会采取行动后，已开始定价为维持利率不变，理由是中东局势的不确定性。ING 对这一共识提出异议，认为最近的数据表明，能源冲击对通胀的影响比对增长的影响更为持久和显著——这一点日本央行自己的季度展望报告在决策日可能会反映出来。ING 预计该行 2026 财年的通胀预测将大幅上调，从 1.9% 上调至 2.4%，2027 财年的预测将从 2.0% 上调至 2.2%，而 2026 财年的 GDP 前景仅小幅下调，从 1.0% 降至 0.7%。</p>
<p>由于实际利率仍然深度负值，且通胀预期面临失去锚定的风险，ING 认为日本央行面临真正的困境。如果周二维持利率不变，该行预计随之而来的沟通将强烈暗示 6 月加息。无论如何，ING 预计到 2026 年底将加息 50 个基点。</p>
<ul>
<li></li>
</ul>
<p>如果 ING 对 4 月份日本央行加息的非共识预测正确，可能会引发日元大幅反弹和日本国债的抛售，市场将显著偏离预期，因为几乎普遍预期将维持利率不变。即使日本央行如市场预期那样维持利率不变，ING 的分析表明，伴随决策的沟通将被密切关注，以寻找 6 月加息的信号。日本央行的通胀前景上调——ING 预计 2026 财年的预测将从 1.9% 上调至 2.4%——将代表一个重要的鹰派转变，可能会重新定价整个利率曲线的预期。由于实际利率仍然深度负值，且在今年的春季谈判后工资增长超过 5%，尽管中东局势使近期增长前景变得复杂，但加息的基本理由正在增强。对于货币市场而言，日元仍然容易受到鹰派意外的影响。</p>

荷兰国际

货币对冲 日本 ETF - WisdomTree

日本指数 MSCI ETF - iShares

<p>日本的通货膨胀速度超出预期，这使得日本银行（BoJ）在 4 月 28 日即将做出的利率决策变得更加复杂。3 月份的消费者物价指数（CPI）上涨了 1.5%，超过了预期，而核心 CPI 上升至 1.8%。ING 预计尽管市场普遍预期将维持利率不变，但仍有可能加息，原因在于价格压力的扩大和推动通胀的结构性因素。日本银行 2026 财年的通胀预测可能上调至 2.4%，而国内生产总值（GDP）的前景略微下调。ING 预计如果日本银行在 4 月份维持利率不变，将会有强有力的沟通暗示 6 月份加息，并预计到 2026 年将收紧 50 个基点</p>

<p>ING says Japan's March CPI beat forecasts and inflation will accelerate further, complicating the BoJ's rate decision on April 28 and keeping an April hike on the table despite market consensus for a hold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 表示，日本 3 月份的消费者物价指数（CPI）超出预期，通胀将进一步加速，这使得日本央行在 4 月 28 日的利率决策变得复杂，并且尽管市场普遍预期将维持利率不变，但仍然保留了 4 月加息的可能性。</p>
</div><p>Earlier previews with a conflicting view:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>早前的预览观点相互矛盾：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Preview: BOJ expected to stay on hold next week but deliver hawkish signal on June move</li>
<li>BOJ may lean more hawkishly to ease pressure on the yen - Nomura</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>预览：预计日本央行下周将维持利率不变，但会对 6 月的举措发出鹰派信号</li>
<li>日本央行可能会更加鹰派，以减轻日元的压力 - 野村证券</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Note, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will not physically attend the meeting. Ueda will attend by phone due to health reasons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请注意，日本央行行长植田和男将不会亲自出席会议。由于健康原因，植田将通过电话参加。</p>
</div><p><strong>Summary</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>摘要</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>Japan headline CPI rose 1.5% year-on-year in March, above the 1.4% market consensus and up from 1.3% in February</li>
<li>Core CPI excluding fresh food accelerated for the first time in five months to 1.8%, beating the 1.5% consensus</li>
<li>Excluding government energy subsidies and social welfare effects, inflation is running well above 2%</li>
<li>ING expects Tokyo CPI to rise to 1.7% year-on-year in April, with both headline and core inflation seen climbing back above 2% from May</li>
<li>Shunto wage negotiations delivered growth above 5%, with small and medium enterprise increases also firm</li>
<li>ING expects the BoJ's FY2026 inflation forecast to be revised up sharply from 1.9% to 2.4%, and FY2027 from 2.0% to 2.2%</li>
<li>GDP outlook expected to be trimmed from 1.0% to 0.7% for FY2026, but still seen above potential</li>
<li>Markets widely expect the BoJ to hold on April 28; ING maintains a non-consensus call for a possible hike</li>
<li>If BoJ holds, ING expects communication to strongly signal a June hike</li>
<li>ING has 50 basis points of hikes pencilled in by end of 2026</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本 3 月份的整体 CPI 同比上涨 1.5%，高于市场共识的 1.4% 和 2 月份的 1.3%</li>
<li>不包括新鲜食品的核心 CPI 在五个月内首次加速至 1.8%，超出 1.5% 的共识</li>
<li>排除政府能源补贴和社会福利影响后，通胀水平远高于 2%</li>
<li>ING 预计东京 CPI 在 4 月份将同比上涨至 1.7%，预计整体和核心通胀在 5 月份将回升至 2% 以上</li>
<li>春季工资谈判的增长超过 5%，中小企业的增幅也相当稳固</li>
<li>ING 预计日本央行 2026 财年的通胀预测将从 1.9% 大幅上调至 2.4%，2027 财年从 2.0% 上调至 2.2%</li>
<li>预计 2026 财年的 GDP 前景将从 1.0% 下调至 0.7%，但仍高于潜在水平</li>
<li>市场普遍预计日本央行将在 4 月 28 日维持利率不变；ING 则维持非共识的加息可能性</li>
<li>如果日本央行维持利率不变，ING 预计沟通将强烈暗示 6 月加息</li>
<li>ING 预计到 2026 年底将加息 50 个基点</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Japan's inflation is running hotter than expected and broadening across the economy, putting the Bank of Japan in an increasingly uncomfortable position ahead of its rate decision on Tuesday and keeping alive the possibility of a surprise hike that markets have largely dismissed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本的通胀水平高于预期，并在经济中广泛蔓延，使得日本央行在周二的利率决策前面临越来越不舒服的局面，并保持了市场普遍忽视的意外加息的可能性。</p>
</div><p>Headline consumer price inflation rose 1.5% year-on-year in March, above both the 1.4% market consensus and the 1.3% recorded in February, according to ING. Core inflation excluding fresh food accelerated for the first time in five months to 1.8%, well above the 1.5% consensus. On a month-on-month basis, the index rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis, with goods prices up 0.6% and services adding 0.2%, suggesting price pressures are becoming increasingly broad-based.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 ING 的数据，3 月份的消费者价格整体通胀同比上涨 1.5%，高于 1.4% 的市场共识和 2 月份的 1.3%。不包括新鲜食品的核心通胀在五个月内首次加速至 1.8%，远高于 1.5% 的共识。按月计算，经过季节调整的指数上涨 0.4%，商品价格上涨 0.6%，服务价格上涨 0.2%，这表明价格压力正在变得越来越广泛。</p>
</div><p>Government intervention is masking the true scale of the problem. Energy subsidies and social welfare programmes pushed down prices for gasoline, utilities and education, each falling between 4.8% and 5.5%. Strip those policy effects out and inflation is running well above 2%, ING said, a picture that will only become clearer in the months ahead. The bank expects Tokyo CPI to rise to 1.7% year-on-year in April and for both headline and core measures to climb back above 2% from May onward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府的干预掩盖了问题的真实规模。能源补贴和社会福利项目使得汽油、公用事业和教育的价格下降，降幅在 4.8% 到 5.5% 之间。去除这些政策影响后，通胀水平远高于 2%，ING 表示，这一情况在未来几个月将变得更加明显。该行预计东京 CPI 在 4 月份将同比上涨至 1.7%，并且整体和核心指标将在 5 月份回升至 2% 以上。</p>
</div><p>Several structural forces are amplifying the inflation outlook. This year's shunto wage negotiations delivered growth above 5%, with small and medium-sized enterprises also seeing firm increases. Businesses facing higher input costs from both a weak yen and rising global energy prices are expected to pass those costs through to consumers, particularly in April when retail price adjustments typically occur at the start of the Japanese fiscal year. Producer and import prices have also risen sharply, adding further pipeline pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几种结构性因素正在放大通胀前景。今年的春季工资谈判的增长超过 5%，中小企业也出现了稳固的增长。面临日元贬值和全球能源价格上涨的企业预计将把这些成本转嫁给消费者，特别是在 4 月份，日本财政年度开始时，零售价格通常会进行调整。生产者和进口价格也大幅上涨，进一步增加了管道压力。</p>
</div><p>The labour market is providing little relief for the BoJ. ING expects the unemployment rate to edge down to 2.5%, with monthly activity data set to rebound after the previous month's declines. The bank does not believe the energy shock has had a significant negative impact on production so far, leaving the growth picture broadly resilient even as inflation accelerates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>劳动力市场对日本央行几乎没有缓解作用。ING 预计失业率将小幅下降至 2.5%，月度活动数据将在上个月下降后反弹。该行认为，能源冲击迄今对生产没有产生显著的负面影响，使得尽管通胀加速，增长前景仍然相对稳健。</p>
</div><p>All of this complicates Tuesday's rate decision considerably. Markets have moved to price in a hold after local reports suggested the BoJ would not act in April, citing uncertainty around the Middle East situation. ING pushes back on that consensus, arguing that recent data shows the energy shock is having a more prolonged and larger impact on inflation than on growth -- a distinction the BoJ's own quarterly outlook report, due on decision day, is likely to reflect. ING expects the bank's FY2026 inflation forecast to be revised sharply higher from 1.9% to 2.4%, and the FY2027 forecast lifted from 2.0% to 2.2%, while the GDP outlook for FY2026 is trimmed only modestly from 1.0% to 0.7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些因素使得周二的利率决策变得相当复杂。市场在当地报道暗示日本央行在 4 月份不会采取行动后，已开始定价为维持利率不变，理由是中东局势的不确定性。ING 对这一共识提出异议，认为最近的数据表明，能源冲击对通胀的影响比对增长的影响更为持久和显著——这一点日本央行自己的季度展望报告在决策日可能会反映出来。ING 预计该行 2026 财年的通胀预测将大幅上调，从 1.9% 上调至 2.4%，2027 财年的预测将从 2.0% 上调至 2.2%，而 2026 财年的 GDP 前景仅小幅下调，从 1.0% 降至 0.7%。</p>
</div><p>With real interest rates remaining deeply negative and inflation expectations at risk of becoming unanchored, ING believes the BoJ faces a genuine dilemma. If it holds on Tuesday, the bank expects the accompanying communication to deliver a strong signal that a hike is coming in June. Either way, ING has 50 basis points of tightening pencilled in by the end of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于实际利率仍然深度负值，且通胀预期面临失去锚定的风险，ING 认为日本央行面临真正的困境。如果周二维持利率不变，该行预计随之而来的沟通将强烈暗示 6 月加息。无论如何，ING 预计到 2026 年底将加息 50 个基点。</p>
</div><ul>
<li></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li></li>
</ul>
</div><p>ING's non-consensus call for an April BoJ hike, if correct, would likely trigger a sharp yen rally and a sell-off in Japanese government bonds, catching markets significantly off-side given the near-universal expectation of a hold. Even if the BoJ stays on hold as markets expect, ING's analysis suggests the communications accompanying the decision will be closely scrutinised for signals of a June hike. The upward revision to the BoJ's inflation outlook — ING expects the FY2026 forecast to be lifted from 1.9% to 2.4% — would represent a meaningful hawkish shift that could reprice rate expectations across the curve. With real interest rates remaining deeply negative and wage growth running above 5% following this year's shunto negotiations, the fundamental case for tightening is strengthening even as the Middle East situation clouds the near-term growth outlook. For currency markets, the yen remains vulnerable to a hawkish surprise</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 ING 对 4 月份日本央行加息的非共识预测正确，可能会引发日元大幅反弹和日本国债的抛售，市场将显著偏离预期，因为几乎普遍预期将维持利率不变。即使日本央行如市场预期那样维持利率不变，ING 的分析表明，伴随决策的沟通将被密切关注，以寻找 6 月加息的信号。日本央行的通胀前景上调——ING 预计 2026 财年的预测将从 1.9% 上调至 2.4%——将代表一个重要的鹰派转变，可能会重新定价整个利率曲线的预期。由于实际利率仍然深度负值，且在今年的春季谈判后工资增长超过 5%，尽管中东局势使近期增长前景变得复杂，但加息的基本理由正在增强。对于货币市场而言，日元仍然容易受到鹰派意外的影响。</p>
</div>

Preview: Bank of Japan rate decision knife-edge, Japan inflation runs hotter than expected

- 日本 3 月 CPI 同比上涨 1.5%，高于市场预期 1.4%。
- ING 预计日本央行将在 4 月 28 日可能维持利率不变，但留有加息空间。
- 通胀压力加大，预计 2026 财年通胀预测将上调至 2.4%。

日本央行的利率决策处于关键时刻，日本的通胀率高于预期