<p>华尔街的 “五月卖出，离开市场” 口号再次受到关注，因为市场接近一年中普遍被认为最弱的时期，但最新数据表明，这一季节性策略可能 已经严重过时。</p>
<p>美国银行的首席技术策略师 <strong>保罗·西安纳</strong> 本周挑战了这一存在数十年的规则，称历史趋势显示，股票在初夏往往表现良好，而不是立即下跌。</p>
<h2>美国银行刚刚终结了五月卖出交易：以下是替代方案</h2>
<p>首先，西安纳对自 1928 年以来标准普尔 500 指数的每个六个月滚动窗口进行了数据分析。</p>
<p>从五月到十月确实是日历上最弱的时期——上涨 66% 的时间，平均回报为 2.47%。而从十一月到四月则是最强的，上涨 70% 的时间，平均回报为 5.20%。</p>
<p>到目前为止，这一切都很熟悉。</p>
<p>但弱势并不在于这一说法所暗示的地方。</p>
<h3>标准普尔 500 指数季节性（六个月周期）</h3>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>六个月周期</th>
<th>平均回报</th>
<th>中位回报</th>
<th>上涨百分比</th>
<th>平均回撤</th>
<th>中位回撤</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>一月 – 六月</td>
<td>3.85%</td>
<td>5.01%</td>
<td>65.3%</td>
<td>-7.60%</td>
<td>-5.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>二月 – 七月</td>
<td>3.98%</td>
<td>4.56%</td>
<td>68.4%</td>
<td>-7.90%</td>
<td>-4.85%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>三月 – 八月</td>
<td>4.98%</td>
<td>4.94%</td>
<td>70.4%</td>
<td>-7.58%</td>
<td>-5.39%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>四月 – 九月</td>
<td>3.54%</td>
<td>3.94%</td>
<td>66.3%</td>
<td>-7.79%</td>
<td>-4.29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>五月 – 十月</strong></td>
<td><strong>2.47%</strong></td>
<td><strong>3.35%</strong></td>
<td><strong>66.3%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-8.67%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-5.21%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>六月 – 十一月</td>
<td>3.63%</td>
<td>4.58%</td>
<td>66.3%</td>
<td>-8.31%</td>
<td>-5.24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>七月 – 十二月</td>
<td>4.25%</td>
<td>5.52%</td>
<td>68.4%</td>
<td>-8.28%</td>
<td>-4.93%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>八月 – 一月</td>
<td>3.66%</td>
<td>4.95%</td>
<td>66.0%</td>
<td>-8.68%</td>
<td>-5.68%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>九月 – 二月</td>
<td>3.06%</td>
<td>5.00%</td>
<td>63.9%</td>
<td>-8.56%</td>
<td>-5.29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>十月 – 三月</td>
<td>4.69%</td>
<td>5.92%</td>
<td>62.9%</td>
<td>-7.65%</td>
<td>-4.94%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>十一月 – 四月</strong></td>
<td><strong>5.20%</strong></td>
<td><strong>5.39%</strong></td>
<td><strong>70.1%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-6.76%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-4.11%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>十二月 – 五月</td>
<td>4.29%</td>
<td>4.63%</td>
<td>66.0%</td>
<td>-7.28%</td>
<td>-4.60%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>当西安纳将周期分解为三个月窗口时，情况发生了翻转。</p>
<p>六月到八月实际上是全年第二强的三个月周期，平均回报为 3.30%。</p>
<p>痛苦主要集中在八月到十月，这是自 1928 年以来唯一一个平均回报为负的三个月周期，回报为-0.02%。</p>
<p>“虽然五月到十月的平均六个月回报最低，但它的痛苦主要集中在八月到十月的时期，” 西安纳说。</p>
<p>这位专家表示，投资者可能不应该遵循经典的 “五月卖出，离开市场” 策略，并补充说，更好的策略可能是 “在八月卖出，并在万圣节前再次买入。”</p>
<h3>标准普尔 500 指数季节性（三个月周期）</h3>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>三个月周期</th>
<th>平均回报</th>
<th>中位回报</th>
<th>上涨百分比</th>
<th>平均回撤</th>
<th>中位回撤</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>一月 – 三月（第一季度）</td>
<td>1.64%</td>
<td>2.10%</td>
<td>60.20%</td>
<td>-5.28%</td>
<td>-3.74%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>二月 – 四月</td>
<td>1.50%</td>
<td>2.28%</td>
<td>67.35%</td>
<td>-5.51%</td>
<td>-3.87%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>三月 – 五月</td>
<td>2.02%</td>
<td>2.61%</td>
<td>61.22%</td>
<td>-5.64%</td>
<td>-2.97%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>四月 – 六月（第二季度）</td>
<td>2.38%</td>
<td>2.24%</td>
<td>60.20%</td>
<td>-5.34%</td>
<td>-3.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>五月 – 七月</td>
<td>2.46%</td>
<td>2.04%</td>
<td>64.29%</td>
<td>-5.35%</td>
<td>-2.97%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>六月 – 八月</td>
<td>3.30%</td>
<td>2.45%</td>
<td>65.31%</td>
<td>-5.08%</td>
<td>-3.36%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>七月 – 九月（第三季度）</td>
<td>1.39%</td>
<td>2.91%</td>
<td>60.20%</td>
<td>-5.39%</td>
<td>-2.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>八月 – 十月</strong></td>
<td><strong>-0.02%</strong></td>
<td><strong>0.90%</strong></td>
<td><strong>55.10%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-7.38%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-5.31%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>九月 – 十一月</td>
<td>0.55%</td>
<td>2.45%</td>
<td>64.29%</td>
<td>-7.40%</td>
<td>-4.87%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>十月 – 十二月（第四季度）</td>
<td>2.89%</td>
<td>4.63%</td>
<td>74.49%</td>
<td>-5.66%</td>
<td>-3.52%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>十一月 – 一月</td>
<td>3.57%</td>
<td>4.17%</td>
<td>67.01%</td>
<td>-4.56%</td>
<td>-2.25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>十二月 – 二月</td>
<td>2.45%</td>
<td>2.50%</td>
<td>62.89%</td>
<td>-4.58%</td>
<td>-3.63%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>平均值</td>
<td>2.01%</td>
<td>2.49%</td>
<td>63.54%</td>
<td>-5.59%</td>
<td>-3.59</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2>为什么五月特别有利于纳斯达克 100 指数</h2>
<p>如果美国银行的季节性热图中有一个交易被标记为五月最强，那就是做多纳斯达克 100 指数——通过 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust</strong> 跟踪的 (NASDAQ: QQQ)。</p>
<p>自 1986 年以来，该指数在五月的平均涨幅为 +2.19%，上涨 68% 的时间——这一趋势自 2016 年以来更加明显。</p>
<p>西安纳指出，即使在 2018 年——<strong>唐纳德·特朗普</strong> 总统第一任期的第二年，这一历史上拖累股票的环境下，纳斯达克 100 指数也违背了这一模式并上涨。</p>
<p>这现在很重要，因为 2026 年也是总统周期的第二年。</p>
<p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>收益波动观察：本周 Sandisk 和五大科技股的预期</strong></p>
<p><em>照片来源：Pla2na/Shutterstock</em></p>

纳斯达克 100 指数

ISVAF

纳指 100 ETF - Invesco

纳斯达克 100 指数 ETF - Invesco

3 倍做多纳指 ETF - ProShares

<p>美国银行的保罗·西安娜（Paul Ciana）对 “五月卖出，离开市场” 的说法提出挑战，建议转向 “五月买入，八月卖出”。历史数据显示，纳斯达克 100 指数在五月的平均涨幅为 +2.19%，成功率为 68%。西安娜的分析表明，虽然五月到十月通常表现较弱，但真正的下跌发生在八月到十月。他建议在八月卖出，并在万圣节前再次买入，强调自 1986 年以来，纳斯达克 100 指数在五月的表现一直良好，即使在市场条件严峻的情况下也是如此</p>

<p>Wall Street's &#34;sell in May and go away&#34; mantra is back in focus as markets approach what's widely seen as the weakest stretch of the year, but fresh data suggests the seasonal playbook may be badly outdated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街的 “五月卖出，离开市场” 口号再次受到关注，因为市场接近一年中普遍被认为最弱的时期，但最新数据表明，这一季节性策略可能 已经严重过时。</p>
</div><p>Bank of America's chief technical strategist <strong>Paul Ciana</strong> challenged the decades-old rule this week, saying historical trends show equities often hold up through early summer rather than rolling over immediately.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国银行的首席技术策略师 <strong>保罗·西安纳</strong> 本周挑战了这一存在数十年的规则，称历史趋势显示，股票在初夏往往表现良好，而不是立即下跌。</p>
</div><h2>BofA Just Killed The Sell In May Trade: Here’s What Replaces It</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美国银行刚刚终结了五月卖出交易：以下是替代方案</h2>
</div><p>First, Ciana ran the numbers on every six-month rolling window for the S&amp;P 500 since 1928.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，西安纳对自 1928 年以来标准普尔 500 指数的每个六个月滚动窗口进行了数据分析。</p>
</div><p>May through October is indeed the weakest stretch on the calendar — up 66% of the time with a 2.47% average return. November through April is the strongest, up 70% of the time with a 5.20% average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从五月到十月确实是日历上最弱的时期——上涨 66% 的时间，平均回报为 2.47%。而从十一月到四月则是最强的，上涨 70% 的时间，平均回报为 5.20%。</p>
</div><p>So far, so familiar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，这一切都很熟悉。</p>
</div><p>But the weakness is not where the saying suggests.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但弱势并不在于这一说法所暗示的地方。</p>
</div><h3>S&amp;P 500 Seasonality (6-Month Periods)</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>标准普尔 500 指数季节性（六个月周期）</h3>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>6-month period</th>
<th>Avg Return</th>
<th>Median Return</th>
<th>% Time Up</th>
<th>Avg Drawdown</th>
<th>Median Drawdown</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Jan – Jun</td>
<td>3.85%</td>
<td>5.01%</td>
<td>65.3%</td>
<td>-7.60%</td>
<td>-5.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Feb – Jul</td>
<td>3.98%</td>
<td>4.56%</td>
<td>68.4%</td>
<td>-7.90%</td>
<td>-4.85%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mar – Aug</td>
<td>4.98%</td>
<td>4.94%</td>
<td>70.4%</td>
<td>-7.58%</td>
<td>-5.39%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Apr – Sep</td>
<td>3.54%</td>
<td>3.94%</td>
<td>66.3%</td>
<td>-7.79%</td>
<td>-4.29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>May – Oct</strong></td>
<td><strong>2.47%</strong></td>
<td><strong>3.35%</strong></td>
<td><strong>66.3%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-8.67%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-5.21%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jun – Nov</td>
<td>3.63%</td>
<td>4.58%</td>
<td>66.3%</td>
<td>-8.31%</td>
<td>-5.24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jul – Dec</td>
<td>4.25%</td>
<td>5.52%</td>
<td>68.4%</td>
<td>-8.28%</td>
<td>-4.93%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Aug – Jan</td>
<td>3.66%</td>
<td>4.95%</td>
<td>66.0%</td>
<td>-8.68%</td>
<td>-5.68%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sep – Feb</td>
<td>3.06%</td>
<td>5.00%</td>
<td>63.9%</td>
<td>-8.56%</td>
<td>-5.29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Oct – Mar</td>
<td>4.69%</td>
<td>5.92%</td>
<td>62.9%</td>
<td>-7.65%</td>
<td>-4.94%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Nov – Apr</strong></td>
<td><strong>5.20%</strong></td>
<td><strong>5.39%</strong></td>
<td><strong>70.1%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-6.76%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-4.11%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dec – May</td>
<td>4.29%</td>
<td>4.63%</td>
<td>66.0%</td>
<td>-7.28%</td>
<td>-4.60%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>六个月周期</th>
<th>平均回报</th>
<th>中位回报</th>
<th>上涨百分比</th>
<th>平均回撤</th>
<th>中位回撤</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>一月 – 六月</td>
<td>3.85%</td>
<td>5.01%</td>
<td>65.3%</td>
<td>-7.60%</td>
<td>-5.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>二月 – 七月</td>
<td>3.98%</td>
<td>4.56%</td>
<td>68.4%</td>
<td>-7.90%</td>
<td>-4.85%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>三月 – 八月</td>
<td>4.98%</td>
<td>4.94%</td>
<td>70.4%</td>
<td>-7.58%</td>
<td>-5.39%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>四月 – 九月</td>
<td>3.54%</td>
<td>3.94%</td>
<td>66.3%</td>
<td>-7.79%</td>
<td>-4.29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>五月 – 十月</strong></td>
<td><strong>2.47%</strong></td>
<td><strong>3.35%</strong></td>
<td><strong>66.3%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-8.67%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-5.21%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>六月 – 十一月</td>
<td>3.63%</td>
<td>4.58%</td>
<td>66.3%</td>
<td>-8.31%</td>
<td>-5.24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>七月 – 十二月</td>
<td>4.25%</td>
<td>5.52%</td>
<td>68.4%</td>
<td>-8.28%</td>
<td>-4.93%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>八月 – 一月</td>
<td>3.66%</td>
<td>4.95%</td>
<td>66.0%</td>
<td>-8.68%</td>
<td>-5.68%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>九月 – 二月</td>
<td>3.06%</td>
<td>5.00%</td>
<td>63.9%</td>
<td>-8.56%</td>
<td>-5.29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>十月 – 三月</td>
<td>4.69%</td>
<td>5.92%</td>
<td>62.9%</td>
<td>-7.65%</td>
<td>-4.94%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>十一月 – 四月</strong></td>
<td><strong>5.20%</strong></td>
<td><strong>5.39%</strong></td>
<td><strong>70.1%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-6.76%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-4.11%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>十二月 – 五月</td>
<td>4.29%</td>
<td>4.63%</td>
<td>66.0%</td>
<td>-7.28%</td>
<td>-4.60%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>When Ciana broke the period into three-month windows, the picture flipped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当西安纳将周期分解为三个月窗口时，情况发生了翻转。</p>
</div><p>June through August is actually the second-strongest three-month stretch of the year, returning 3.30% on average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>六月到八月实际上是全年第二强的三个月周期，平均回报为 3.30%。</p>
</div><p>The pain is back-loaded into August through October, which is the only three-month period since 1928 with a negative average return at -0.02%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>痛苦主要集中在八月到十月，这是自 1928 年以来唯一一个平均回报为负的三个月周期，回报为-0.02%。</p>
</div><p>“While May-Oct does have the lowest average 6-month return, it is back-end loaded to the Aug-Oct period,” Ciana said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“虽然五月到十月的平均六个月回报最低，但它的痛苦主要集中在八月到十月的时期，” 西安纳说。</p>
</div><p>The expert indicated investors probably shouldn't follow the classic &#34;sell in May and go away&#34; playbook, adding that a better strategy may be “to sell in August and buy again by Halloween.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这位专家表示，投资者可能不应该遵循经典的 “五月卖出，离开市场” 策略，并补充说，更好的策略可能是 “在八月卖出，并在万圣节前再次买入。”</p>
</div><h3>S&amp;P 500 Seasonality (3-Month Periods)</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>标准普尔 500 指数季节性（三个月周期）</h3>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>3-month period</th>
<th>Average return</th>
<th>Median return</th>
<th>% of time up</th>
<th>Average correction</th>
<th>Median correction</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Jan – Mar (1Q)</td>
<td>1.64%</td>
<td>2.10%</td>
<td>60.20%</td>
<td>-5.28%</td>
<td>-3.74%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Feb – Apr</td>
<td>1.50%</td>
<td>2.28%</td>
<td>67.35%</td>
<td>-5.51%</td>
<td>-3.87%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mar – May</td>
<td>2.02%</td>
<td>2.61%</td>
<td>61.22%</td>
<td>-5.64%</td>
<td>-2.97%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Apr – Jun (2Q)</td>
<td>2.38%</td>
<td>2.24%</td>
<td>60.20%</td>
<td>-5.34%</td>
<td>-3.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>May – Jul</td>
<td>2.46%</td>
<td>2.04%</td>
<td>64.29%</td>
<td>-5.35%</td>
<td>-2.97%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jun – Aug</td>
<td>3.30%</td>
<td>2.45%</td>
<td>65.31%</td>
<td>-5.08%</td>
<td>-3.36%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jul – Sep (3Q)</td>
<td>1.39%</td>
<td>2.91%</td>
<td>60.20%</td>
<td>-5.39%</td>
<td>-2.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Aug – Oct</strong></td>
<td><strong>-0.02%</strong></td>
<td><strong>0.90%</strong></td>
<td><strong>55.10%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-7.38%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-5.31%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sep – Nov</td>
<td>0.55%</td>
<td>2.45%</td>
<td>64.29%</td>
<td>-7.40%</td>
<td>-4.87%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Oct – Dec (4Q)</td>
<td>2.89%</td>
<td>4.63%</td>
<td>74.49%</td>
<td>-5.66%</td>
<td>-3.52%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nov – Jan</td>
<td>3.57%</td>
<td>4.17%</td>
<td>67.01%</td>
<td>-4.56%</td>
<td>-2.25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dec – Feb</td>
<td>2.45%</td>
<td>2.50%</td>
<td>62.89%</td>
<td>-4.58%</td>
<td>-3.63%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Averages</td>
<td>2.01%</td>
<td>2.49%</td>
<td>63.54%</td>
<td>-5.59%</td>
<td>-3.59</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>三个月周期</th>
<th>平均回报</th>
<th>中位回报</th>
<th>上涨百分比</th>
<th>平均回撤</th>
<th>中位回撤</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>一月 – 三月（第一季度）</td>
<td>1.64%</td>
<td>2.10%</td>
<td>60.20%</td>
<td>-5.28%</td>
<td>-3.74%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>二月 – 四月</td>
<td>1.50%</td>
<td>2.28%</td>
<td>67.35%</td>
<td>-5.51%</td>
<td>-3.87%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>三月 – 五月</td>
<td>2.02%</td>
<td>2.61%</td>
<td>61.22%</td>
<td>-5.64%</td>
<td>-2.97%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>四月 – 六月（第二季度）</td>
<td>2.38%</td>
<td>2.24%</td>
<td>60.20%</td>
<td>-5.34%</td>
<td>-3.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>五月 – 七月</td>
<td>2.46%</td>
<td>2.04%</td>
<td>64.29%</td>
<td>-5.35%</td>
<td>-2.97%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>六月 – 八月</td>
<td>3.30%</td>
<td>2.45%</td>
<td>65.31%</td>
<td>-5.08%</td>
<td>-3.36%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>七月 – 九月（第三季度）</td>
<td>1.39%</td>
<td>2.91%</td>
<td>60.20%</td>
<td>-5.39%</td>
<td>-2.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>八月 – 十月</strong></td>
<td><strong>-0.02%</strong></td>
<td><strong>0.90%</strong></td>
<td><strong>55.10%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-7.38%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-5.31%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>九月 – 十一月</td>
<td>0.55%</td>
<td>2.45%</td>
<td>64.29%</td>
<td>-7.40%</td>
<td>-4.87%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>十月 – 十二月（第四季度）</td>
<td>2.89%</td>
<td>4.63%</td>
<td>74.49%</td>
<td>-5.66%</td>
<td>-3.52%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>十一月 – 一月</td>
<td>3.57%</td>
<td>4.17%</td>
<td>67.01%</td>
<td>-4.56%</td>
<td>-2.25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>十二月 – 二月</td>
<td>2.45%</td>
<td>2.50%</td>
<td>62.89%</td>
<td>-4.58%</td>
<td>-3.63%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>平均值</td>
<td>2.01%</td>
<td>2.49%</td>
<td>63.54%</td>
<td>-5.59%</td>
<td>-3.59</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><h2>Why May Tends to Favor The Nasdaq 100 Specifically</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么五月特别有利于纳斯达克 100 指数</h2>
</div><p>If there is a single trade that BofA’s seasonal heatmap flagged as the strongest in May, it is long the Nasdaq 100 – as tracked by the <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust</strong> (NASDAQ: QQQ).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果美国银行的季节性热图中有一个交易被标记为五月最强，那就是做多纳斯达克 100 指数——通过 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust</strong> 跟踪的 (NASDAQ: QQQ)。</p>
</div><p>The index has averaged a +2.19% gain in May since 1986, rising 68% of the time — and the trend has been more pronounced since 2016.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 1986 年以来，该指数在五月的平均涨幅为 +2.19%，上涨 68% 的时间——这一趋势自 2016 年以来更加明显。</p>
</div><p>Ciana noted that even in 2018 — the second year of President <strong>Donald Trump</strong>‘s first term, a setup that historically drags equities — the NDX defied the pattern and rallied.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西安纳指出，即使在 2018 年——<strong>唐纳德·特朗普</strong> 总统第一任期的第二年，这一历史上拖累股票的环境下，纳斯达克 100 指数也违背了这一模式并上涨。</p>
</div><p>That matters now because 2026 is also Year 2 of the presidential cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这现在很重要，因为 2026 年也是总统周期的第二年。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>Earnings Volatility Watch: What To Expect From Sandisk and 5 Mag Seven Stocks This Week</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>收益波动观察：本周 Sandisk 和五大科技股的预期</strong></p>
</div><p><em>Photo: Pla2na/Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片来源：Pla2na/Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Wall Street Says 'Sell In May And Go Away': History Says Otherwise

- 美股 “五月卖出，六月休假” 的理论受到质疑。  
- 巴克莱最新数据显示，六月份至八月份通常表现良好。  
- 投资者应考虑 “八月卖出，万圣节再买入” 的策略。

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BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.125%DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER PP USD25

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华尔街有句俗语 “五月卖出然后离开”，但历史数据却显示情况并非如此