<p>[伦敦] 英国人在四月份的短期和长期通胀预期下降，这一结果出乎意料，来自于 YouGov 为美国银行花旗进行的月度调查，该调查表示这些数据并未为英格兰银行提供更强的鹰派政策基础。</p>
<p>根据周一发布的调查，四月份短期通胀预期从三月份的 5.4% 降至 5%，而长期预期则从一个月前的 4.5% 降至 4.2%。</p>
<p>这些数字对于英格兰银行来说可能是个好消息，因为它正在监测伊朗战争带来的影响。</p>
<p>尽管公众对通胀的预测能力较差，但英格兰银行仍然密切关注他们的预期，以寻找价格压力是否在公众心态中永久根植的迹象，这可能会影响利率决策。</p>
<p>花旗/YouGov 报告表示：“我们认为，在波动性减弱和趋势变得更清晰之前，仍然有充分的理由忽视这些系列中的波动。”</p>
<p><strong>‘尚无更多鹰派政策的基础 ‘</strong></p>
<p>报告指出，三月份的巨大激增——当时未来一年的通胀预期创下 20 多年来的最大月度增幅——可能是由于伊朗战争导致的燃料价格激增，称其为 “异常”。</p>
<p>报告称，四月份的数据显示，随着油价，尤其是未来价格略微下降，通胀预期正在回落。</p>
<p>它补充说，假设未来几个月能源市场有序恢复，趋势最终可能会恢复向下的轨迹。</p>
<p>报告表示：“只要波动性是可以解释的，并且预期似乎在减弱且稳定，我们认为尚无充分的基础将这些数据作为更鹰派政策立场的有力论据。” 路透社</p>

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<p>英国公众的通胀预期在四月份下降，短期预期从 5.4% 降至 5%，长期预期从 4.5% 降至 4.2%。YouGov 为花旗银行提供的报告显示，这一下降表明英格兰银行采取鹰派政策的压力减小。报告指出，三月份的前期激增可能是由于与伊朗战争相关的临时因素造成的，如果能源市场稳定，当前趋势可能会继续向下</p>

<p>[LONDON] Britons’ short-term and long-term inflation expectations fell in April, in a surprise reading from a monthly survey by YouGov for US bank Citi, which said the data did not give the Bank of England a strong basis for a more hawkish policy position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[伦敦] 英国人在四月份的短期和长期通胀预期下降，这一结果出乎意料，来自于 YouGov 为美国银行花旗进行的月度调查，该调查表示这些数据并未为英格兰银行提供更强的鹰派政策基础。</p>
</div><p>Short-term inflation expectations fell to 5 per cent in April from 5.4 per cent in March, while long-term expectations eased to 4.2 per cent from 4.5 per cent a month earlier, according to the survey published on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据周一发布的调查，四月份短期通胀预期从三月份的 5.4% 降至 5%，而长期预期则从一个月前的 4.5% 降至 4.2%。</p>
</div><p>The numbers are likely welcome news for the Bank of England as it monitors the fallout from the Iran war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些数字对于英格兰银行来说可能是个好消息，因为它正在监测伊朗战争带来的影响。</p>
</div><p>While the public are poor predictors of inflation, the BoE watches their expectations carefully for signs that price pressures are becoming permanently embedded in the mindset of the public, which could in turn influence interest rate decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管公众对通胀的预测能力较差，但英格兰银行仍然密切关注他们的预期，以寻找价格压力是否在公众心态中永久根植的迹象，这可能会影响利率决策。</p>
</div><p>“We think there is still a compelling case to look through the volatility in these series for now until the volatility eases and the trend becomes clearer,” the Citi/YouGov report said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>花旗/YouGov 报告表示：“我们认为，在波动性减弱和趋势变得更清晰之前，仍然有充分的理由忽视这些系列中的波动。”</p>
</div><p><strong>‘Little basis yet‘ for more hawkish policy</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>‘尚无更多鹰派政策的基础 ‘</strong></p>
</div><p>It said that the big spike in March - when the inflation expectation for the year ahead marked the biggest monthly increase in more than 20 years - could have been due to a spike in fuel prices driven by the war in Iran, describing it as “anomalous”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告指出，三月份的巨大激增——当时未来一年的通胀预期创下 20 多年来的最大月度增幅——可能是由于伊朗战争导致的燃料价格激增，称其为 “异常”。</p>
</div><p>The April figures suggest inflation expectations are retreating as oil prices, and in particular future prices, drop to slightly lower levels, the report said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告称，四月份的数据显示，随着油价，尤其是未来价格略微下降，通胀预期正在回落。</p>
</div><p>It added that the trend would likely resume its downward path eventually, assuming an orderly return to energy markets over the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它补充说，假设未来几个月能源市场有序恢复，趋势最终可能会恢复向下的轨迹。</p>
</div><p>“So long as the volatility is explicable, and the expectations appear to be both moderating and anchored, we think there is little basis yet to use this data as a convincing argument for a more hawkish policy position,” the report said. REUTERS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告表示：“只要波动性是可以解释的，并且预期似乎在减弱且稳定，我们认为尚无充分的基础将这些数据作为更鹰派政策立场的有力论据。” 路透社</p>
</div>

UK public inflation expectations fell in April: survey

- 英国四月份短期和长期通胀预期意外下降。  
- 短期预期从 5.4% 降至 5%，长期预期从 4.5% 降至 4.2%。  
- 该数据未能为英格兰银行提供更强鹰派政策基础。

调查显示，英国公众对通胀的预期在四月份有所下降